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Muppets Get MASHED Once Again - Groupon Half Off Share Price Coupons Selling for 20 Cents On The Dollar!!!

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

CNBC reports that Groupon [GRPN  5.815    -1.735  (-22.98%)   ] plunged more than 20 percent after the daily-deals site missed sales expectations and handed in a cautious earnings outlook, due to Europe's weak economy and currency fluctuations. Shares have already plunged nearly 70 percent since the company's IPO last November. At least eight brokerages slashed their price targets on the firm.

You know that you really don't have to follow eight brokerages to make money on Groupon. All you really had to do was subscribe to BoomBustBlog, reference For Those That Want To Take A Peek Inside the Professional BoomBustBlog Paywall, Here's All of My Groupon Research - MUPPETS!!!

Now, all of you Goldman, Morgan Stanley, et. al. lovers, don't get your muppetware in a bunch, you know that I know that you know that It Is Now Common Knowledge That Goldman’s Investment Advice Sucks???, as excerpted:

It's official, the mainstream media has turned on those "doing God's work" and come to the side of BoomBustBlog.

............................

Okay, enough the Muppet Manipulating, Money Marauding, Doing Work in God's Name Brand Bank Bashing... Let's get down to the nitty gritty of the report that I said I will give away for free. I am offering the report, earnings advisory addendum and accompanying simplified model to show what we're made of. Of course paying subscribers, and even casual blog readers, cannot say that I didn't thoroughly warn you! Early shorts on this stock as per our research notes valuation matrices would have given pleasant Christmas presents and would have also stuffed one hell of an Easter basket as well!!!

In case you still don't get it, the sell side research departments of these banks did not offer BoomBustBlog research to their clients. Oh no, then how in the hell can they dump their stock??? They issued glowing reports from their own analytical cum soft sales staff.

On that note, let's reminisce.... In June of 2011 I release proprietary research to BoomBustBlog Subscribers. You can now download said report absolutely free, here icon Groupon Forensic Analysis & Valuation (923.04 kB 2011-06-16 10:34:36). After reading said report, prepare for some real comedy, as reported by Dailypolitical.com:

Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN) was downgraded by equities research analysts at Stifel Nicolaus from a “hold” rating to a “sell” rating in a research note issued to investors on Monday.

Other equities research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Analysts at Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) downgraded shares of Groupon from a “buy” rating to a “neutral” rating in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a $20.00 price target on the stock, down previously from $30.00. Separately, analysts at Benchmark Co. cut their price target on shares of Groupon from $32.00 to $28.00 in a research note to investors on Monday. They now have a “buy” rating on the stock. Finally, analysts at Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Groupon in a research note to investors on Thursday, February 9th.

Groupon traded down 3.20% on Monday, hitting $14.54. Groupon has a 52-week low of $14.85 and a 52-week high of $31.14. The company’s market cap is $9.376 billion.

Whoa!!! Goldman Sachs reiterated their "buy" recommendation just in time for their damn Muppet Clients to lose ~40% by the close of the market today. Go ahead, stuff those damn Muppets, fellas!

Groupon_Crash_warnings Groupon_Crash_warnings

For the record, in June of 2011, a full ten months ago, I made clear to my subscribers the following (as excerpted from the now free download)...

We value Groupon at $6.6bn using DCF. The current valuation is based on 10 years of revenue projections which are overly optimistic in our view.  We have forecasted revenues of $4.0bn in 2011 and expect revenues to nearly double to $7.5bn in 2012 and reach $35bn by 2020. We have assumed cost of equity of 12% and terminal growth of 3% from 2021 onwards. We have kept gross profit at stable levels and assumed operational gearing to (? Operating Profit / ? Revenue) to improve considerably. Despite these optimistic projections we were still not able to justify a valuation close to $10bn let alone $20-25bn. We only see downside risks to valuation of $6.6bn and believe that Groupon’s rejection of Google offer of $6.0bn was a mistake in first place. Google’s valuation of $6.0bn most assuredly included a premium for synergies that Google could have achieved with Groupon which would be clearly absent in the standalone entity. We see the fair value of Groupon close to $3.0-4.0bn if we assume a more realistic picture. Given all kinds of questions surrounding Groupon’s business regarding the sustainability of revenue growth, costs control and even the business model itself (i.e., the relationship with merchants) and external competition, we remain deeply concerned even on the sustainability of a successful IPO for Groupon. 

For the record, at about $14 per share, Groupon is market-valued at about $9.1 billion dollars!!!! Here are some key highlights: Groupon restates revenue, EXACTLY as I warned just three months earlier.

  1. Monday, 26 September 2011 What's The Best Way To Profit From Groupon's IPO?
  2. file icon Groupon Revenue Restated 09/26/2011
Groupon starts trading on the Nasdaq via IPO...
  1. Sunday, 13 November 2011 I Hope You Groupon IPO Investors Got Coupons At The IPO!!! Yeah, That's Right I Was The First To Say It
Favorite hits from said documents...
Groupon_revenue_restated_Page_1_copy Groupon_revenue_restated_Page_1_copy
Groupon_revenue_restated_Page_2_copy Groupon_revenue_restated_Page_2_copy
Groupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_03_copyGroupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_03_copy
Groupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_04_copyGroupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_04_copy
Groupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_05_copy
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/add/blogGroupon_Valuation_redacted_Page_05_copy
There's a WHOLE LOT MORE, but this post is long enough as it is. Simply download the links above, and don't forget to reference the valuation section of original forensic report. There's an early Christmas present in there for the stingy muppets!
 

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Wed, 08/15/2012 - 03:16 | 2706023 Tapeworm
Tapeworm's picture

The free info from Mr. Middleton would have made you a fortune if you used decent timing in 2008,etc. I can tolerate the braggadoccio as it is earned.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 19:15 | 2705301 Coldfire
Coldfire's picture

Good stuff, Reggie. Hope you made a fortune on this trade.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 19:03 | 2705270 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

"The SEC, having just dropped their investigation" no i think it should be more like "the SEC having just cashed the check from GS dropped the charges..

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 18:33 | 2705200 neutrinoman
neutrinoman's picture

I got my groupons early, when they were worth something, then I shut it down. This is great reporting, BTW, Reggie ... nice job.

The solution is clear: Groupon needs to start offering its own stock as part of the coupon.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 18:23 | 2705173 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

I didn't need anyone to tell me groupon was a fraud. Even the finanical channel clowns were saying it. You had to be high on oxycontin to not know it.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 20:25 | 2705425 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

i was high on oxy...and still knew it...than i stayed on mushrooms to see if i could hullucinate and make facebook look real...no dice...

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 17:31 | 2705075 Neethgie
Neethgie's picture

Is boombustblog getting renamed captain obvious tells people stuff they already knew?

The only really outlandish and none obvious claim BBB has made, was about aapl and goog and pray tell how is that working out?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 19:06 | 2705278 Meesohaawnee
Meesohaawnee's picture

you tell me you were know all end all the market would be so rigged!! This makes the internet bubble look like preschool and im sure you had this one pegged ..

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 17:17 | 2705052 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

There's never just one Facehugger. They must FEAST!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 16:32 | 2704964 Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

What the hell does Alfred Hitchcock have to do with Goldman Sachs?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 15:58 | 2704867 rustymason
rustymason's picture

Welcome to America, where the Prez is a mad-dog Marxist, the banksters are Jewish and untouchable, and the Muppets are gay.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 14:28 | 2704514 BeetleBailey
BeetleBailey's picture

Great report Reggie.

Why.....ANYONE would let Gulgmann Sucks, Merrily Pinch, JayPee Morgoon or any of the other so-called "financial experts" manage their money is a mystery to me.

I watched (endured) the "Limpics" and laughed out loud at the Smells Fartgo ads - yammering about local "volunteering" - when these bastards are stealing people's money - they have the nerve to preach volunteerism.

Lloyd Blankface? Yo...LLOYD.....give it up boy..you are about as savvy as a warm sac of jiggling vomit.

Goldman.......SUCKS!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 14:15 | 2704444 Arnold Ziffel
Arnold Ziffel's picture

Mutant Butterflies start popping up all over Japan:

http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/08/14/13274288-study-japan-nucle...

 

It's a little off topic but I thougth every one should know.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 15:32 | 2704776 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

Mothra lives.  Where is Godzilla when you did him?

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 14:50 | 2704604 zebra
zebra's picture

Internet bubbles popping again on US soil.

talk about butterfly effects.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 13:29 | 2704291 smiler03
smiler03's picture

I would say that Groupons Market Cap is precisely $0.00

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 13:24 | 2704264 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

see reggie poop on groupon

 

groupon needs to offer a coupon for 90% off their own stock

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 13:03 | 2704167 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

".. the sell side research departments of these banks did not offer BoomBustBlog research to their clients. Oh no, then how in the hell can they dump their stock??? They issued glowing reports from their own analytical cum soft sales staff."

Well done Reggie.

The SEC, having just dropped their investigation (aka whitewash) of Goldmans mass national and international mortgage fraud will now open an investigation (another whitewash) into the inflated sales pitch and valuation of the Groupon IPO prospectus (and why not Flopbook too?) and the real figures

..the last thing Wall Street needs like a bullet through the brain is the man 'Doing Gods Work' being jailed for systemic fraud, con jobs and lying on a global (Biblical?) scale ...over to Lloyd Blankfein and his 'bankers are productive' claims (another whopper Lloyd?)

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 17:28 | 2705070 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Exhibiting blasphemy won't help you get your money back Mr.

God's work isn't easy, but it's very profitable!

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 21:01 | 2705520 old naughty
old naughty's picture

Who else would they mash...If not muppets heads in sand-now-with-water.

Tue, 08/14/2012 - 11:34 | 2703873 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Oh Happy Day! FUGS! Burn and rot in Hell!

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