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Unfathomable, but Someday.........
I'll begin with my usual Apple-exclusive caveats.........I worked there for years......... I bought my first Mac in early 1984......... I bought the iPhone on its release date......... as well as the iPad........ Steve Jobs is my lifelong hero, long before most of you ding-dongs even knew who he was.......and so on.
Having said all that, take a moment to look at this chart:
I have been quite vocal with a target of $735 (plus or minus a few bucks -- unless it falters, in which case I will be jumping with joy), which for a permabear like me, shows how strong I feel about this company's momentum.
However........
One day - - maybe in a month, a year, a few years - God knows - - - Apple is going to make the first in a series of stumbles. I cannot conjure what kind of epic screw-up Apple would have to make in order to surrender its firm grasp over Earth, but there is no such thing as a company that thrives and dominates until the end of time.
If you had told anyone in 1997 that Apple would be the largest and most respected (and feared) company on the entire planet, you would have been prosecuted for murder since people would have died laughing.
Likewise, today, if anyone were to suggest that there will come a day that Apple will be seen as long past its prime - - perhaps even a fallen great - - you would like equally mocked. It seems completely ridiculous.
I say again, I have no earthly idea what kind of series of mistakes Apple could possibly make to lose its way. At this point, only if every iPhone manufactured were found to explode unexpectedly and fatally, there's no way Apple is going to lose its place on the pedestal.
But it'll happen. Someday. It'll be interesting to see when and why.
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Do the same chart for revenues. That will go along way towards explaining the APPL phenomenon.
I was bearish on AAPL for a long time with some of the same emotional responses that we hear most of the time like the law of large numbers, niche product, global recession, etc. Then earlier this year they crushed the estimates for both top and bottom line (I thought they would miss and the stock would get crushed) and the stock took off and I had to re-evaluate my bearish thesis. At some point, the growth rate will slow down or they will make a serious mistake, but until they do, there is no other company that is this big that is growing the top and bottom line like AAPL. It's those factors that will continue to push this stock higher. BTW, there is absolutely no reason to own the common stock. There is much more upside and risk control trading the options. Just look at the option volume and it looks like a lot of people agree.
you can only grind human beings into shareholder angel dust for so long
>> LEO
>> Tim
Giants always take the wrong step somewhere down the path along its greatness. For Apple it could be stepping on Samsung, getting into the beds of cable companies ("iTV"), or even past nightmares. iOS's locked ecosystem vs Samsung could be the Microsoft Windows vs Apple in the today.
Actually, AAPL doesn't have to do anything wrong to implode.
If -- and I speculate here -- a significant portion of their popularity and revenue stems from college students spending federal student loan money, then the end of that gravey train may be a major drag.
If AAPL turns out to have been the biggest beneficiary of the back-to-school bubble, then they don't need to misstep at all.
Actually, AAPL doesn't have to do anything wrong to implode because all it takes is for people to realize it's not worth the price, when you can get the same, and better, devices for much cheaper.
Yes I agree. If the price of Apple stock has nothing to do with the actual worth of the company, Apple could do nothing and watch their market cap disintegrate. Parabolic moves like this do not usually end well.
That makes more sense. Thanks.
Dude, put down the Haterade!