Here Comes That Contagion... From Greece to Belize to... Spain? Italy? Ireland? Portugal?
The question Du Jour is,,,,, Will reneging be the fiscal management
policy of the new millennium? Can you blame those who even try? Are they
wrong? Now that Greece has set the precedent of just not paying its
bills, the floodgates are open. Don't be fooled if just a few drops of
water come out at first!
My posts from last year...
My readers and subscribers know that I
have been warning that Greece would guaranteedly default as far back as
two years ago. As a matter of fact, I stated that the haircut needed
would have to be around the 53% mark in order for Greece's economy to
truly cash flow again, and that was two years ago when things were much,
much better for the country. Now the issue has metastasized into
something much worse. How much worse? Well, it's safe
to say the situation is at least twice as bad. That being said, twice
times 53% means 60, 70, even 75% NPV haircuts just won't cut the
mustard. Since this is already a forgone conclusion, I will now release
the research and economic models that have been available to
BoomBustBlog professional subscribers two years ago (March 2010), take notice how prescient, how crystal balllish it all seems..
In continuing with my rant on the
absurdity of even pretending the Greek situation is salvageable or that
Greece will somehow be bailed out without a near complete absolution of
their debts, I bring forth from the BoomBustBlog archives the Sovereign
Contagion Model. For those who haven't read my most posts on this
topic, please review The Ugly Truth About The Greek Situation That's Too Difficult Broadcast Through Mainstream Media and Grecian Tragedy Formula, Bailout Number 3.
It is my contention that Greece's
significant default is a forgone conclusion. It is also my contention
that media attention should be much more focused on the damage to be
done by a Greek default - considerably more so than whether Greece will
ultimately default of not or what type of bailout it may or may not
recieve. I have been of this mindset for several years which is why I
had my analyst team create the Sovereign Contagion Model below.
foreign claims of PIIGS