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Smart Money acknowledges its big miss with GATA and gold
Smart Money acknowledges its big miss with GATA and gold |
Submitted by cpowell on 12:42PM ET Saturday, August 25, 2012. Section:Daily Dispatches
3:40p ET Saturday, August 25, 2012
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Founded in 1992, Smart Money magazine, a product of The Wall Street Journal, is going out of business with its September issue, which includes a review, titled "Hits and Misses," of what the magazine, its editors, and writers have gotten right and wrong in their 20 years. Perhaps their biggest miss is gold, as signified by the magazine's recapitulation of its June 2004 interview with GATA Chairman Bill Murphy, who remarked that the monetary metal, then priced at $422 per ounce, would double.
"That's not what we predicted at all," Smart Money's Russell Pearlman reflects. "'History, at least the past 200 years or so,' we wrote, was not on the side of gold lovers. While there was perhaps some short-term money to be made in the precious metal, 'the bull market for gold will not last and anyone making gold the cornerstone of his or her investment porfolios is making a serious mistake.' New York fund manager Chris Davis agreed with us at the time. Gold, he said, wasn't an 'earning asset' (one that paid dividends). It was a psychological asset. 'I just don't get it,' he shrugged. Neither, it seems, did we."
GATA explained it to Smart Money then and since then has been explaining it to everyone else with eyes to see and ears to hear. But while you can lead a financial journalist to a central bank, you can't make him ask the right questions.
A photograph of Smart Money's acknowledgment of its mistake about gold is posted here:
http://www.gata.org/files/SmartMoney-Sept-2012.jpg
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
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Smart Money? Maybe Dumb Money.
Good riddance.
Smart Money.
I am so sick of herd animals congratulating themselves for being in the wise and mighty herd, and lowing to me about how I should be in it too.
Steers who think they're bulls, calling themselves smart and condescending to me because they managed to stay two steps ahead of the herd for a few years and pile up some extra cud.
And it's not symmetric. I will never get to condescend to them. When the herd discovers that their bullshit cannot mighty cities build, they won't come to me and say "You were right all along, Mick!"
I'll still be by myself, out standing in my field, watching smoke rise from afar.
I used to subscribe to Smart Money and Kiplingers for that matter. I remember in the summer of 2008 how they had a feature article on how great Wachovia was.
You only have to look at their advertising to see who they are beholden to.
mmmmm Gold
mmmmm Crash Test Dummies
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIbcqgXh5-4
Remember the old phrase "Follow the Money."?
The New Normal's is "Follow the Gold."
"Follow the Yellow Brick Road"
The people who don't understand gold are the same people who believe that the United States is a good, exceptional country that could never collapse. It's literally impossible for them to believe that the United States is a thieving, lying, rapacious empire that has basically terrorized the globe for at least the last century. So if, in their minds, their favorite country and the current owner of the world's favorite reserve currency can do no wrong, why would they need gold?
anybody dumb enough to believe that the Repubs are going to go back to the Gold standard is delusional. trying to smoke out a few RP backers to get to the polls.
Oh, I'll go to the polls all right.
It is not a matter of what they want to do. Sure, they don't want to use gold as a base. It is going to be a question of what they have to do. There will be no other option than gold, in one or another form. It is going to be the only accepted base, because of the thieving and lying we have seen over the last 40 years. People are simply not going to trust a fiat based system once the chips are down. We have seen a re-run of that movie so many times. This time is not going to be different.
When the first big uptrend of this bull market kicked in for the junior mining stocks back in 2003, how nice it would have been to see that recovery coming and be there waiting, fully loaded with bargain juniors.
The liftoff from those early levels was pretty impressive, but thereafter the gains continued to build for those that just had the confidence to ride the move. Then during the wipeout in 2008 the same levels of intense bearishness develop that we witnessed in the late 1990s.
There were many people that were calling for a complete collapse for the mining sector. Instead, another strong bull market phase developed shortly after. In 2010 and 2011 there were numerous big financing deals announced at a premium and retail investors had to beg to get even a tiny piece of those deals. The naysayers were proven wrong, and once again those who could see this coming did very well.
The last year has been hell for investors in the mining sector. The value of the stocks has declined sharply. The metals have been under continuous pressure. There have been many widely distributed - and wildly bearish - commentaries that have suggested the end of the sector is at hand again. Read a posting using technical analysis on your website that claimed a long term moving average in the TSX-Venture had broken down and we could expect the index to hit 400 in the years ahead. What people fail to understand in the moment is that such indications are almost always a clear sign of a bottom. Each time the majority of investors are dispirited and selling out, with predictions of lower lows ahead, THAT is when its usually the best time to buy.
I spend a great deal of time online reading opinions from as many people as possible. It seems there is a remarkable dichotomy in the expectations expressed. There is one group that believes there is absolutely no manipulation in the metals or the mining stocks. These people are largely bearish in their outlook, and many state that they are short in their trading exposure. On the other hand, there is another group that believes that manipulation is completely in control of the entire sector, and therefore no rally can be trusted. These people are discouraged and many have sold their positions, or are unwilling to buy even at these bargain levels.
These two extreme viewpoints are mutually exclusive. One large group of market participants therefore must be completely wrong. You cannot have a market in which there is no manipulation AND at the same time have a Cartel that is complete control of the action.
Both opinions are completely wrong.
There is an extensive and pervasive manipulation underway in both the metals and the stocks, but they do NOT control the prices. They can influence the short term action, and perhaps delay the next phase, but they do not control the sector.
The easiest way to prove that manipulation is a limiting factor is simply to review the number of times that gold has been capped to a gain of exactly 1% during the last year. There has never been a market in history that has traded like this, and absolutely no way in hell that this pattern could evolve purely on normal market interaction.
One must have the IQ of a horseradish to believe otherwise, and the number of people that cannot interpret the scam is just further evidence that the majority of market participants are lazy, irrational, and easily influenced.
As long as people fail to understand the nature of this market, then it will be easy for a handful of crooks to take advantage of the retail investors.
It is that simple.
There is a huge number of people that are expecting another breakdown from the current extreme bargain level in this sector. These people will completely miss the buying opportunity of the year because they have been so discouraged by the continuous intervention in the trading. The same pattern has played out several times. It doesn't matter at all what the reasons may be that are considered the driving factors. Central bank selling or buying; new monetary stimulus (or not); inflation / deflation... the market fundamentals will still demonstrate the same extremes of bearish and bullish sentiment in cycles playing out.
Therein lies opportunity.
As the rebound continues the lights are going to go on for a lot of people, and a more speculative market will develop again. The window will open for struggling juniors to raise money and become more active. Even under the current reality of massive corruption the market dynamics will dictate that money flow is going to begin aggressively chasing the bargain junior mining stocks.
Greed will return.
It will be fun to watch all of this play out again.
The more things change, the more they stay the same.
www.lemetropolecafe.com
What I don't understand about your approach is -- how can you advocate owning mining stocks when it seems pretty clear that the rule of law has broken down? Clear, obvious, numerous, egregious examples.
The people whom you (rightly) criticize for (1) believing that there is no manipulation, and (2) believing that manipulation will be eternal and omnipotent both share one trait. One way or another, they believe in the State: in its right or its might.
By advocating stock ownership, aren't you sharing some of their faith?
Many people still laugh at "gold bugs". As long as they are laughing, I'm buying.
gold will tank with all the other commodities. I'm laughing at anybody buying above $800/oz or silver above $15/oz. DEFLATION/STRONG DOLLAR!
Hey Otto, much as I admired your stick-save of Benito (that bastion of personal liberty) - I think you need to ask yourself - what other 'commodity' has a stock:flow ratio of ~60:1?
Hint - none. So... maybe gold isn't a commodity.
@8:
Yo, gold is a commoditiy with exactly one use: it is the perfect embodiment of money. So while the strong dollar is a good bet as the rest of the world tanks, in the end the ONLY money will be gold. No dollar, no Yen, no Yuan, what's a euro? no green stamps, no miles, no VISA, no MasterCard, no shells, no cigarettes ... no money except gold, and maybe silver.
"Gold bugs".
Not savy investors who realized the largest Ponzi scheme in history is winding to an ubrupt demise.
To paraphrase Percival Sweetwater: "We get no respect.". We have to be addressed in a condescending manner which implies a little "crazy". Fine by me.
Its what ya learn after ya go crazy that counts.
Same goes fer goin Galt!
Crap
So 'Smart Money' magazine is closing, not smart enough to even stay in business itself
Like many other publications
Another one bites the dust
And another one gone, and another one gone
Another one bites the dust
The classic Queen video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eqyUAtzS_6M