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Full Circle: All Eyes on Greece Once Again
Greece, the genesis of it all, the birthplace of the European debt crisis is in the limelight once again. Can balance be restored to a country so burdened with debt, and is it in the EU’s best interest to continue to foot the bill for the catastrophe that is Greece? It’s decision time.
The International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and the European Commission together form the Troika. The group is jointly analyzing the viability of Greece’s long-term growth and debt reduction plans based on the countries current path. If the outlook is bright and Greece is making progress to resolve their debt then it will buy the country some time. If, on-the-other-hand, progress is bleak then the hour of truth will be close at hand.
German Chancelor Angela Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras are nervously awaiting the release of the Troika’s report, which should be completed somewhere between late September and early October.
Greece’s climb towards solvency is steep and the underlying question remains; can the country return to growth and reduce its debt before it’s too late?
Trader Insights
The Euro has had a strong rally against the US Dollar since July 25, 2012. The bulls have had a nice ride, but they are about to get squeezed. Europe’s economic conditions are not sustainable, and the hype about a Euro recovery is loosing steam. The EUR.USD has been in a corrective phase and is ready to fall back into the trend continuing within its downward plunge.
Learn how to maximize potential in the ensuing move, join the Forward Thinking waiting list today.
Indicators on Watch
This should be a good week. There is a good deal of activity on the economic front, which could mean mass volatility.
- EUR German Consumer Price Index (Wednesday)
- USD Gross Domestic Product (Wednesday)
- USD Fed Releases Beige Book Economic Survey (Wednesday)
- EUR German Unemployment Change (Thursday)
- USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (Thursday)
- USD Fed’s Bernanke Speaks at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Friday)
- EUR IMF’s Lagarde Speaks at Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium (Friday)
Your currency analyst,
Justin Burkhardt
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http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/froward
turns out froward is (was) a perfectly good word
"Greece’s effort to default is herculean and the underlying question remains; can the country reclaim any vestige of sovereignty and repudiate its debt before it’s too late?"
there's a model for that!
http://tinyurl.com/8wn8zjt
Greece is fubar.
Here is a recent picture of Draghi, Merkel, Hollande and Samaras that explains the situation perfectly.
http://mssparky.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Hear-no-evil.jpg
"If, on-the-other-hand, progress is bleak then the hour of truth will be close at hand."
what a load of rubbish. greece will never pay its debt. germany will 'bail out greece'(really bail out german banks) til the banks dont need bailing....hour of truth...what truth..!
unless the wrong party is elected
money to greece / greece keeps money / banks not paid / occupation ensues
join the Froward Thinking waiting list today?
I must really be out of the loop.
The resemblance is striking...
I think the waiting list is for people who want to man the oars on a lifeboat.
Eyes you say?
Looks more like blind mice waiting for the bonfire to really start burning. Panic in Needle park of bankster world if Greece pops the weasel.
Before it's too late for the bankers or for the Greeks? I hear the latter are forming post-commercial communities and basically going the Amish route... What are the bankers going to do, invade?
No, but Z Germans might. Their Finance Mininster Schauble even talked about marching the "blue helmets" into Greece. I guess they could go house to house and seize all the gold.
Justin, thanks for the graph, and LaGarde's itinerary. Wasn't she in magnificent settings in INSIDE JOB? Did you read Barofsky's BAILOUT when he called the French woman? Ha ha, who could THAT have been, but why didn't he identify her? Greece is fine, its their banksterz that are fucked. (How can Goldman fuck themselves?).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0o0l7ekKvk
Full circle! It's a circle jerk. You know, cookie on the stump.
Got to admit one of the pleasures of ZH is reading you guys, insightful, smart, crazy, bad and mad.
“(A unified) ‘Europe’ is the result of plans. It is, in fact, a classic utopian project, a monument to the vanity of intellectuals, a programme whose inevitable destiny is failure: only the scale of the final damage done is in doubt.”
— Margaret Thatcher,
Greece has already sunk. Of course ... it's the anchor.
The questions is whether the anchor is chained to the lifeboats. It will pull all of them under as well.
Merkel, Draghi and Samaras nervously waiting for the release of the TROIKA report?
It's more likely they are groping for time as they are internally sweating for a solution.
Nah, they're all stalling until the next reset event occurs, making their "plans," as well as the previous facade, moot.
Their plan is... that they have no plan other than lie, lie, and deny. Well. sometimes they deny, deny, then lie (that's when you know it's getting serious).
What planet are you guys from? Of course they have a plan. Stall and prevaricate until natural forces push Greece out. They will help Greece survive on the outside but they won't throw good money after bad on the inside. They know exactly what they are doing and they will survive. They are a lot smarter than most of our politicians and may surprise all of us.
Or... more, more likely they are forging false identities and booking flights to outer Mongolia.
If the Troika needs until late Septemeber/early October to figure out if Greece can cope with its debt, then I humbly suggest that it is in fact the TROIKA which is in serious trouble.
It's time for the TROIKA to be renamed the THREE STOOGES.
Blah blah blah...It's all Bullshit. After this report it will be some other report due out in December or early January.
Kinda like Govt-sponsered research papers: "The results are inconclusive, but the topic NEEDs further study."
Bullish!
Bearish!
Hedge it!
Fuck it!
Shoot it!
Is it Friday humor yet?
Greece back to solvency. LOL
Normalcy Bias to the max, yah?
communities jailing State Police and driving tax inspectors off the pier has done more to right Greece's economy than Christine fucking Lagarde waving her empty IMF handbag around calling for more taxes
How can Southern Euro economies return to growth with these imbalances Euro has brought? With this Germany that forgets how Hitler got the power back then? Back then nobody knew who Hitler was but after the brutal austeriry and humilation the Treaty of Versailles brought...well we know what happened next.
Only solution:
Massive increase of the quantity of money by the ECB (Quantitative Easing)
Aggressive cut of the interest rates
Germany WW2 reparations to Greece
Or if Germany and the IMF deny, Greece and other countries should exit Euro before its too late.
Frankly, I can't figure out why I can't find my silver. Any one got a map in this town?
Don't sweat it. I'm psychic and I foresee.......... you finding it just about the time it hits $150.
"Greece’s climb towards solvency"
Oh, give me a freaking break.
I'm assuming he's joking, right? right? somebody tell me he's not serious.
Steep, unlikely, impossible you pick... it's all the same. The
Greek economy is a sinking ship with an inevitable fate that is long overdue.
And I might add should take down the US too.
it's all scale. focus on size. Greece is Mississippi. It can't sink any entity other than itself. It's the contagion that we should worry about. Add Spain and then Italy and then the world begins to spin
it's not like the US deserves any less
a good plucking of the Eagles feathers would reign in this toxic turkeys more obnoxious ambitions
Spain isn't as bad as Greece, but they have horrifying similarities!
http://confoundedinterest.wordpress.com/2012/08/28/the-pain-in-spain-con...
Froward thinking indeed.
'German Chancelor Angela Merkel, ECB President Mario Draghi and Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras are nervously awaiting the release of the Troika’s report,...'
Samaras is probably nervous, but Merkel and Draghi not so much - they know Greece is toast, and just need the negative Troika report to hide behind as they tell Greece, 'So sorry, bye bye'.
Now Spain, they are nervous about...
I'll be much happier once the world isn't filled with people analyzing incoherence in an effort to make it all fit a coherent narrative.
While there's nothing wrong with one talking their book, it'd be nice if it wasn't always from the "What's New" isle of the fiction section.