This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Dis and Dat

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

I

.

Convenient timing for this announcement. Sixty days before the big election the Administration is dishing out favors to big hedge fund contributors. I wonder how much they took in to make this deal.

.

.

 

.

.

 

II

.

It always surprises me how quickly sentiment changes. A month ago the the FX market had a big short on the EURUSD. The betting at the end of August is that a long Euro position is the way to make money.

How big are the expectations that Mario Draghi has to deliver on? Big. Very big.

.

.

 

III

.

 

No TAG? What's that about?

In the dark days of 2008 the FDIC guaranteed all non-interest bearing deposits at banks. Back then, there was a run on the banks. TAG (Transaction Account Guarantee) was the FDIC response. Tag was supposed to run out in 2010 but got extended to 12/31/12.

.

 

Time has run out for any legislation to extend TAG before the election. Add this silly old thing to all the other things that are going to fall off a cliff on New Years Eve.

Oh, one thing about TAG, the transactions accounts that are guaranteed by FDIC run to the Tens of Trillions! So much for that TBTF issue we used to hear about. Another reason for a a hard landing in January.

 

 

IV

.

Watch out for this story. It has legs.

.

.

.

 

V

.

How much of the student loan debt is un-payable? Half?

.

This debt is a noose around young people's neck. What an ugly thing to have done to them. The next generation will never be able to dig out of the hole.

.

.

 

VI

.

.

For those who love regulations and believe that Congress can actually fix things, DF is a blessing. In the end, those who want more regulations will find themselves strangled by DF. It ain't gonna work!

.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:20 | 2749381 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

I'm not sure it such a big thing that we will see ads on TV for hedge funds. But it is a NEW thing. This has not been been permitted before today. It has been banned since 1933.

Clearly, the timing was political, It was to get some bucks from the guys who run hedge funds. Nothing to see at all......

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 14:42 | 2750205 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The proof will be if there is indeed a payday for the Administration.  Right, Bruce?  You'll, of course, be monitoring that and report back I'm sure.  Otherwise, your accusation is without merit.   It's good to see that you have no political biases.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 19:25 | 2750999 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

he's swiss so he's neutral. and how the F did you get that Bruce is pro-anybody with this article. FOXNEWS.com msut be missing you about now

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 22:33 | 2751371 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Oh, I dunno.  Maybe it was the opening salvo:

"Sixty days before the big election the Administration is dishing out favors to big hedge fund contributors."

Could that have been the bias I spoke of?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:59 | 2749164 max2205
max2205's picture

BAC and JPM derivatives...add that to your number

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:13 | 2749184 covert
Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:57 | 2749154 Ralph Spoilsport
Ralph Spoilsport's picture

Dodd-Frank is another Obama-era fiasco that the sheeple accept at face value as a good thing.

 

Thanks Bruce. Good job extracting some news from the doldrums.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:48 | 2749135 Cast Iron Skillet
Cast Iron Skillet's picture

7,365 pages?! omit needless words!

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 11:19 | 2749572 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Omit Dodd-Frank.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 23:06 | 2751424 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Arrest Dodd and Frank, and everybody else connected with this million page cluster f**k

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:04 | 2749326 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

@ Microsoft Word

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 18:08 | 2750831 css1971
css1971's picture

I was just wondering how you get 7000 pages into ms word without it crashing.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:46 | 2749128 Orly
Orly's picture

Technicals on the EURUSD pair are showing an interesting set-up.  There are two contradictory Gartley patterns emerging.  The Daily chart shows a bearish retracement to ~1.239-level, whereas the Weekly chart shows a massive bounce back to 1.31.  Here's how that scenario can play out:

As early as noon today, New York time, Risk begins to realise that Bernanke isn't going to be dishing out any more free money for a while.  There is a drain in equities as the Euro drifts lower.  Jackson Hole turns out to be a giant nothing burger and for the next several days, the EURUSD pair close the bearish Gartley on the Daily as the stock market tries to correct for their very patient fallacy.

Over the next several weeks, the Europeans hold hands and sing Kumbaya around the campfire.  Merkel and Schauble and Draghi, et. al., show some "leadership" in what has previously been a vacuum of competence and the EURUSD pair rolls up and up and up, devoid of any kind of common sense whatsoever.  But what else is new?

Get long EURUSD at 1.239 and go away.  Check the trade at the end of January.

Or not.

:D

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:34 | 2749111 negative rates
negative rates's picture

That decible meter seems to be reading low,  I think it was louder at the rainbow.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:27 | 2749101 DrewJackson
DrewJackson's picture

Draghi's bounce will be as high as a euro coin dropped from leaning tower of Pisa.  Maybe we can get a side by side live demonstration. 

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:14 | 2749088 No Euros please...
No Euros please we're British's picture

Is the Draghi bounce a close relative of the dead cat bounce?

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 09:13 | 2749185 ThirdWorldDude
ThirdWorldDude's picture

Ask Admiral Nelson, he surely knows...

http://youtu.be/tfsKT923290

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 08:02 | 2749068 Cash-NonCash
Cash-NonCash's picture

PR will default starting in 2015; exit in an orderly manner now and you may get to keep your principal.  I can't stand the thought personally, if only because of the zeros I'm holding...

Draghi Bounce, on the other hand, is fantasy.

This market is over. No?  Daily 1/3 volume anyone??  Done.

Thu, 08/30/2012 - 10:46 | 2749457 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Yeah, those zeros are probably worth more in the 35-40 range at maturity (for the 30yrs)(vs. the expected 100).  I've been applying the same math to Cali muni zeros.  Humorously, they still don't seem that bad compared to the alternatives.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!