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On Israel and Iran
A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. I spoke with a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion. There were no secrets discussed, but his thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.
Will Israel allow Iran to develop a nuke?
Not a chance in hell.
What is the “over - under on timing”?
Certainly less than two years.
Does Israel have the capacity to take out concrete hardened facilities in Iran?
Yes, but this is by no means an easy task.
Explain?
It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran).
Which route will Israel choose?
It will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.
Will Syria attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft flying over its territory?
Yes, it has surface-to-air capability and it also has MiG-23 and MiG-27 fighters. The Israelis will escort their bombers over Syria with their F16s. These fighters will wipe out anything that Syria puts up. The ground-based defenses are old, and no doubt, poorly manned these days.
Is it a problem if Israeli attack bombers fly over Iraqi territory?
No one gives a shit about Iraq anymore.
What happens when the Israeli bombers get over Iranian air space?
This question has no answer. If it happens, this would be the most advertized air attack in history. The Iranians have sophisticated radar and surface to air capability they bought from China. It would be a mistake to assume that an attack can be made without losses.
How would the attack take place?
Israel will use its F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb.It will use their F16s as escorts.
As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close.
What is your guess on the outcome?
It is not possible to predict what will happen in Syria. The chaos today creates the best opportunity for Israel. Who knows what can happen in six-months? Every week Iran's defenses get stronger. This will be resolved, one way or the other, in less than six-months.
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"It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran)."
Hmmm what about "none of the above"? Maybe they could put their planes on a boat, maybe a big boat with a run-way on it's deck, maybe a really big boat with nuclear power that goes 40 knots. Maybe this big boat takes them closer and they take off from there.
Now if only someone would invest such a boat.
Like the USS Abraham Lincoln? Article is excellent but moot.
The war mongering drum beat is intensifying at a deafness tone,... giving Israel's, "Barabus-Barbarian's' At the Zionist Gate" once again, the infinite dogma, infallible-resolution, that the "Twelve-Tribes" of Israel are belonging only to the world's jewish kingdom.
We all know what Jesus response was?
...world's jewish kingdom.
We all know what Jesus response was?
My kingdom is not of this world!
Why can´t Israel fly over Jordan rather than Syria? Would anyone that matters care?
Furthermore, I wonder why the Israelis can´t use cruise missiles with nuclear warheads based on their submarines? But perhaps it will stand out as more legitimate to first use non-nuclear weapons and then, if the Iranians say they won´t give up the idea to manufacture their own nuclear fuel, use nukes. I suspect that the strategy the Israelis will use depends on what they think the general public in the West will accept. The public opinion on the US is probably no problem. I guess that less than 10 % of the American population would think that an attack on Iran would be outrageous. 20 % of the American population would probably consider a large-scale, nuclear attack on Iran perfectly legitimate since Isaiah 60:11-12 according to dispensationalist theology says that Israel is entitled to exterminate even moderate opposition to Israel. And considering the statements and speeches we so far have seen from the Iranian leadership there is absolutely no doubt that Iran meets this criterion with interest.
In Europe, the number of people that would support an attack on Iran for religious reasons is probably smaller. In Sweden, the members of Livets Ord church and affiliated churches would most likely support an attack. Most Swedish Pentecostalists would probably also support a nuclear attack on Iran (although I know that there are moderate Pentecostalists who would not think that). However, these churches are only supported by approximately 2 % of the population.
I think that Israel may consider the public opinion in Europe as a potential problem. Therefore, I think that it would help Israel a lot if the big media in Europe could persuade the public opinion in Europe that Israel had no other option and that Israel had to attack Iran in order to defend itself. On the other hand, the general public tend to forget actions which they consider unjustified after a while, provided that people are not continuously reminded about them and provided that there is not a series of perceived unjustified actions over a longer period of time.
I suspect that Iran and other Islamic countries may be forced to pay a high price for their reluctance to buy media in Western Europe by using various fronts for such purposes. The lack of investments in Western media by non-Western investors and the fact that they don´t seem to be interested in buying politicians in the West for strategic reasons indicate to me that they don´t know what they are doing. I think that Iran will lose out in this conflict and that China and India will have to look for oil elsewhere.
Adding to my prior post, now let’s switch sides and look at it from the Iranian view point with regards to the US election.
If Obama or Ron Paul wins then Iran will have a go to proceed at full speed to nuclear weapons capability and thus will not strike Israel first until they have that capability in house at the earliest. Using North Korea as test site also gives Iran the first strike advantage without a tell tale sign within Iran of that capability. So the first indication that Iran has this capability may be our only indication.
If a Hawk Republican wins then Iran will have about a three month window starting in Nov 2012 to strike Israel. If they don’t then Iran will be forced into opposing a united defense/attack in the Summer 2013.
So in sum Israel is in a predicament right now under Obama and Iran will be in one after Nov 2012 if Non-isolationist Republican wins. Before the election Israel will be force to act alone if it chooses to act at all. If the election breaks in Israel’s favor then Iran may trigger on Israel before Israel’s political victory in the US can be turned into a military advantage in the ME.
The Economist magazine outlined a fairly similar scenario for an Israeli strike last week. It pointed out that the Israelis only have the smaller US bunker buster bombs and that even with absolutely precise aiming, they might not be sufficient. But the Israelis are probably quite capable of designing their own bunker busters, if necessary. In theory, they could even use tactical nukes, but this seems extremely unlikely.
Striking the nuclear facilities would at best only delay the Iranians. It might even make them angry and cause them to redouble their efforts and speed up their program.
Another possibility would be for the Israelis to try to kill the Iranian leadership, similar to the way Ronald Reagan tried to kill Ghadaffi. Reagan missed (barely), but it did seem to cause Ghadaffi to become much more cautious. But it didn't end the Ghadaffi's sponsorship of terrorism or the Libyan nuclear bomb program.
I recommend that USA initiate war against Iran, because (1) it is moral to do so, (2) it is feasible to do so, and (3) it is in the interests of USA to do so. Finally, (4) it is in the interests of Obama to do so.
1. It is moral to attack Iran because the Iranian government is a gang of violent bullies who oppress and, not infrequently, execute Iranian citizens. They score attrociously in the Economic Freedom Index and their cruel treatment of women, homosexuals, and journalists is abhorrent. Also, with their verbal threats against Israel and the building of nuclear "cancer treatments" in hardened underground bunkers (e.g. Natanz), Iran is logically estopped from objecting to attacks mounted against itself.
2. With their economy a miserable shambles, it is quite feasible to attack Iran. What is important to focus on is cheaply toppling the regime, and not engaging in protracted, expensive nation-building as occured in Iraq. As Ludwig von Mises states in Human Action,
"The military events of both World Wars have proved anew that the capitalistic countries are paramount also in armaments production... Where capitalistic entrepreneurship is allowed to function freely, the fighting forces will always be so well equipped that the biggest armies of the backward peoples will be no match for them. There has even been great exaggeration of the danger of making the formulas for manufacturing “secret” weapons universally known. If war comes again, the searching mind of the capitalistic world will always have a head start on the peoples who merely copy and imitate clumsily."
It is important that the Strait of Hormuz be forcibly kept open in the interests of free markets; that may mean clearing any barrage of naval mines. But it is within our capabilities. Keeping it open will also make it easier to provide charitable support to the suffering Iranian people.
3. It is in the interests of USA to attack Iran because it helps move us toward a peaceful world organized by division of labor and voluntary exchange. The valuable oil in Iran should be controlled by free market forces, so that it can bring the greatest relief to the most urgent needs of humanity; it should not be in the hands of a corrupt gang of thugs. Additionally, as a provider of protection services, USA could extract war reparations to help repay the costs of the enforcement action brought against Iran.
Truly, contractual bonds are ideal for free markets. As von Mises explains,
"Western civilization as well as the civilization of the more advanced Eastern peoples are achievements of men who have cooperated according to the pattern of contractual coordination. These civilizations, it is true, have adopted in some respects bonds of hegemonic structure. The state as an apparatus of compulsion and coercion is by necessity a hegemonic organization.So is the family and its household community. However, the characteristic feature of these civilizations is the contractual structure proper to the cooperation of the individual families... Human civilization as it has been hitherto known to historical experience is preponderantly a product of contractual relations."
But, when dealing with an aggressive and irrational foreign power, where it is not possible to use contractual bonds, one can instead opt to employ hegemonic bonds (i.e. subjugation).
4. The current round of Republican candidates are surprisingly timid. It is definitely in the interests of Obama and his reelection campaign to show himself as a patriotic and courageous leader; a Peace Prize winner who helps brings peace to the world through decisive action.
ROTFLMAO!!!!!
Dr Acula, I have come to appreciate your dry witted, lampooning, sardonic postings.........
Bruce, you do a better job of geopolitical speculation when on your own.(Some of your stuff back in late summer was really great!) Your friend has led you down the garden path - those projected routes are simply not on for Qom and Nantanz...that map needs to be reworked to show the real flight paths to be used for attack on those facilities.
For over a decade the sionists have been opening up avenues for a northern route of attack, building strategic relationships with countries like Georgia, Azerbaijan, Romania, and most lately, Greece & Cyrpus, a chain of stepping stones which have allowed them to create a fully loaded and operational attack force already sitting on tarmacs ready for take off...with payloads on board!
Back in the day when the Turks were still letting them use their airspace for exercises, a suspicious number of 'war game' israeli planes would make one way flights, never returning to base. Turns out they were all going to Georgia and Azerbaijan, transferring equipment and weaponry for deployment on American controlled bases in those countries.
When that subterfuge got nixed, they set up the Cyprus-Greece-Romania-Georgia run, once again hiding their movements through the screen of US\Nato controlled military bases in those countries. Obomba's BIGBOY Busters have all made their way to the desired points of deployment.
Take a look at the map....400 miles from Baku to Qom, less than half what it would take for a strike from the nearest of the mentioned trajectories. And if the Azeris get queasy about being the departure point for mass destruction raining down on fellow Shia's, it's no biggie! Overflights from Georgian bases will conveniently benefit from the programming that went into all the Nato supplied systems in the Azeri aircraft supposedly ready to protect their airspace - as the Turks found out (much to their surprise and disgust) their systems are all wired to automatically identify israeli aircraft as 'friendly' upon contact!
Finally, were there to be any diplomatic fallout from the news of a mass strike on Iranian targets, such as would make return via the same route inexpedient, don't think for a minute that the Kurds in Kirkuk would not be ready to return the favors their sionist backers have lavished upon them all the while...those planes will not have to make the trip back home in one long leg.
nobody, unfortunately, is depending on Syria being 'liberated' before the shit goes down...it's all about the arm twisting that will go into the US\Nato puppets giving the sign off on the planes leaving the tarmac at those Georgian\Azeri bases...we are that close to the major event. And guess whose comin to dinner in DC this week!
the russians pay cyprus debts, and the iranians still help with oil in greece - as far as Georgians, Romanians offering help, it will be a cold day [years?] in hell via Russia
Do yu read the news, or just skip it and go to the funnies?
Hell, even just reading the weather report woulda given you a more accurate perspective champ!
Joyful, what do you think the tension over the Straights of Hormuz is all about. Launch an attack from a carrier, who gives a shit were the planes came from? Just get the oil!!!
Turkey will persuade [gently tugging?] Azerbaijan,... if they help -- remembering not to long ago how the Israelite Terrorists killed Turkish peacekeepers sailing to Gaza with survival supplies and aid. Hunted down, and killed in the name of the "Jerusalem Death Camps"? Gaza Forever!!!
Wikileaks confirms that Israel has already neutered iRan's nuclear sites with ground commandos.
http://www.prisonplanet.com/israel-kurdish-fighters-destroyed-iran-nucle...
Great link Ahmeexnal! There is no nuke threat. At least from Iran.
This question I pose, is more of a morality [fairness/equitable?] than philosophical/theological. Where did the disdain/hatred come for the "European Ashkenazi Jews"? Was it fomented in France, Prussia, Russia, Ottoman Empire [Turkey], Spain, Germany, Austria, Italy, England [UK],... etc., etc., [N/S Europe].
Actually, all of the above; and everywhere else that agents of a small but venomous sect of messianic hegemonists penetrated in their quest to dominate and deceive their neighbors via a stealthy campaign to use the trappings of religious orthodoxy to conceal their noxious agenda.
What does morality have to do with it?
israel will easily win and be vilified for being totally right.
http://expose2.wordpress.com
Iran, Israel and Nuclear War: An Illustrative Scenario Analysis
Center for Strategic and International Studies
http://csis.org/files/media/csis/pubs/071119_iran.is&nuclearwar.pdf
In this interactive study based upon scenario analysis and game theory, the adversaries quickly target population centers and attempt to prevent the possibility for the adversary to recover as a nation.
Only one mention of EMP in that entire scenario.
Hmmm, is the timing of the Syrian instability a coincidence? Inquiring minds want to know.
Finally a decent analysis without emotional mis-influence.
Thx a lot Mr. Krasting.
Ladies and Gentlemen
Analysis is one thing, whether its right or wrong, it's another thing.
Mr. Krasting is being quite honest to share the info from his contacts with us.
What we make of it, it is a totally different issue.
What does Grampa Rothschild have to say?
yawn
your friend has no fucking idea what he is talking about - totally off the mark, period!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera ___ *[Osirik - Iraq]
"Israel bombs Baghdad nuclear [French] reactor - *1981*___31 yrs ago" ___ http://www.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/7/newsid_3014000/30...
jmo
Israel will not committ the majority of its airforce on an Iranian bombing mission; to do so would be future tactical sucide.
Israhell is an insane asylum. Time to nuke it but not before moving all Jews, crypto Jews, and Zionist Christians there first. Good riddance.
^
The asininity is strong with this one
MSM has an opposite pole called: insane vitriolic media. Is it warm or cold in that dogma?
OH and, you're a fucking idiot just like alienIQ cultists.
Bruce, regarding the weather that you got wrong. I did not read it. I did come to the conclusion based upon all the vetted long range weather forecasts, last February and last summer that we were in for another couple of bad years in Texas. I too got it wrong and it cost me money by reducing my cattle herd at the wrong time. My information was based upon the best information available. There was also a consensus of the best cattle men that I know that projected bad weather would continue.
That wrong call does not damage your credibility, nor that of the million dollar cow men I know.
The job of the messenger is not an easy one. Keep it up. You are a valued old hand here at ZH. Do your job and be assured that there are many like myself that read you every time you post. And it is appreciated that you share your time and views.
Speaking of weather,Did you know the Rothschilds bought the weather channels,so they can tell you what the chemtrails,ooops,I mean weather will be?
All these steps are predicated on the premise that Iran is committed and indeed trying to develop a nuclear bomb. There is no evidence to support this and in fact the international community and even the CIA believes otherwise.
There is no reason to beleive that if Iran DOES develop a nuclear weapon it would use it against Israel. Israel contains many sites that are historically and relgiously significant to Muslims as well as Christians and Jews. Any nukes used by Iran would precipitate an overwhelming in kind response from parties who are a lot better armed than they... It would be suicidal
Any act of nuclear violence against US or Israeli interests ANYWHERE would precipitate a genocidal nuclear attack on Iran. The greater danger is a false flag terrorist event outside the borders, that can be used to justify a preemptive nuke strike against Iran.
No one wants war, but the desire by the Iranians to get nukes is so intense , they are willing to risk it.
We have enough idiots with nukes already - last thing we need is the "Nation of a million suicide vests" getting the biggest suicide vest of all.
"No one wants war"
WRONG.
Israel wants war. They ALWAYS want war. It's in their fucking DNA.
The are the greatest menace to peace the earth has ever witnessed.
The fact that they posses several hundred nukes should be a world wide 4 alarm cause for concern. Israel is by far the most dangerous nation in the history of the world.
You indeed are a fucking idiot. echo...echo...
LOL. You're a fucking idiot.
I'm not a fan of Israel , but I'll take Israel over religious fanatics.
We burn some Korans by mistake and they run around killing people - yeah let's give em some nukes.
not spent a lot of time around orthodox judaism have you?
I am not a fan of war, but after taking a tour through this building:
http://www.gnosticliberationfront.com/rothschild__the_israeli_supreme.htm
i can almost see the alien's point.
I live waterfront 10 miles across the Chesapeake bay from the Aberdeen Proving Grounds. The ordnance's have been popping daily which in my experience has never been a good sign. War is imminent. I don't care who's provoking it, i definitely don't want any of my family or friends killed for Israel, Wall St., IMF, oil, sand, etc., etc.
A 5 ton one just went off. Shook my laptop pretty good. I have to hear this shit all day long.
IMO Iran drew the globalist's down on themselves when they began trading oil for gold.
Can't say as i blame them, I wouldn't want Debt for Substance either.
religious fanatics...
Unfortunately it's for the most part a 3 ring circus. Whenever one gets too big for its britches, the other 2 have to take him down a notch. All three still clamoring for Abraham's favor, the rest is fraticide.
"Look at me, look at me, I'm important too!"
Pathetic.
Are you suggesting that a nation that declares itself "Gods Chosen People" are NOT religious fanatics?
To me, that DEFINES religious fanatic.
"If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close."
If this information is correct, then there can be no attack without the US shipping more bunker buster bombs to Israel (because they apparently only have 30 of them). So, the US would ultimately get to decide if Israel gets to attack Iran (i.e., only 30 bombs then no attack).
Why would we supply more of the bombs to do the job, only to add fuel to the argument that we are behind the attack and even sponsoring it? And why would Israel want to wonder if the US will come through with more bunker buster bombs? Are they going to hold themselves hostage to whether the Obama Administration decides to ship them more bombs?
Israel has a sophisticated enough arms industry. They are already reverse engineering the 30 bombs we sent them, and making as many as they need. Don't look for the US shipping bombs as the tell-tale for an attack. The bombs will already be sitting in a warehouse in Israel. Count on it.
From stuff I've been reading lately, I am starting to have doubts that an Israel strike would be decisive. At the very least, it would have something like a 50/50 chance. I just saw something that said that ground troops would likely be needed to seal the deal. The US will not send troops into Iran. I don't care if AIPAC kidnaps Congress and holds them ransom, there is no way.
Despite Israel's bluster, I'm guessing they are absolutely desperate to have the US involved, and preferably take the lead on an attack. If that is the case, Israel is actually bluffing (or something close to it) and the US holds all the cards (or close to it.)
Remember that when Israel is confident that they can achieve military objectives against a neighbor, they just do it (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Gaza). This time, we've gotten two or three years of bluster.
The US is already involved. We, I live in the US of A, have been propping up Israel since they took over Palestine @ a cost of approximately 1 billion dollars a year. (bombs, planes, nukes, you name it we supply it via tax dollars on our posterity). The UN holds all the cards. Article 6 clause 2 of the Constitution of the United States of America ...and all treaties made... shall be the supreme law of the Land... and here is an example of what WE (US and Israel) via the UN and NATO have been doing to the Palestinians...
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=s/2012/11
Welcome to the NWO!
Nobody believes there is a functional difference between "Israel" and "America". People are not stupid; they know they are joined at the hip. So any attack by "Israel" will be instantly identified as an attack by "America". Especially the people in the Middle East understand this, and they are right. The fiction that they are somehow two separate countries is just a fantasy projected by the MSM in the U.S.
Could this be the reason they call the US the GREAT SATAN!
The jewish people are not completely aligned with historic US "christian" interests. There is an uneasy truce. For instance, it was not without considerable effort the faith of victims at columbine be presented as coincidentally different (if at all), from the faith of the boys and was deemed irrelevent.
But with the "christian" element in the US on the decline, the concealment is declining too. imo.
Actually, The Jewish religion has nothing to do with the Christian religion.
Christian religion is based on Jesus Christ - Son of God.
The Islam is close to the Christian religion as Muslims recognize Jesus Christ as a prophet, like Moses.
Jewish religion does not recognize Jesus Christ as the Son of God, not even as a prophet.
Sure, they share the old testament - but so do Muslims. So, Christians should take some time and put in some effort to discover that other religion that has Jesus on their side, and spend a little less on the religion that actually hates their main religious figure...
Germany currently supplies Israel with advanced military equipment including nuclear submarines , drones and tanks.
The Germans know a thing about busting bunkers - don't think the USA is the only country to possess such technology.
"The submarine has the capacity to carry up to 16 surface-to-surface missiles or torpedoes. The surface-to-surface missile is the submarine-launched Harpoon, which delivers a 227kg warhead to a range of 130km at high subsonic speed."
http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/dolphin/
Gets targets with in 130 KM of coast line (maybe further with a little spit and polish) but can they launch bunker busters?
"The Harpoon missile was developed in the early 1970s. Numerous upgrades have kept it at the forefront of missile capabilities,......... .....The SLAM-ER (Expanded Response) Block 1F, a major upgrade to the SLAM missile that is currently in production, provides over twice the missile range, target penetration capability, and control range of SLAM. SLAM-ER has a greater range (150+ miles), a titanium warhead for increased penetration, and software improvements which allow the pilot to retarget the impact point of the missile during the terminal phase of attack (about the last five miles)"
SLAM is Stand off Land Attack Missie
http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/smart/agm-84.htm
If Israel has a version of these on their subs this might be how they attack. US controls the waters so the Israel Subs are protected (more or less). Not a lot of warning if these were launched from a sub right off the coast of Iran.