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On Israel and Iran
A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. I spoke with a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion. There were no secrets discussed, but his thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.
Will Israel allow Iran to develop a nuke?
Not a chance in hell.
What is the “over - under on timing”?
Certainly less than two years.
Does Israel have the capacity to take out concrete hardened facilities in Iran?
Yes, but this is by no means an easy task.
Explain?
It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran).
Which route will Israel choose?
It will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.
Will Syria attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft flying over its territory?
Yes, it has surface-to-air capability and it also has MiG-23 and MiG-27 fighters. The Israelis will escort their bombers over Syria with their F16s. These fighters will wipe out anything that Syria puts up. The ground-based defenses are old, and no doubt, poorly manned these days.
Is it a problem if Israeli attack bombers fly over Iraqi territory?
No one gives a shit about Iraq anymore.
What happens when the Israeli bombers get over Iranian air space?
This question has no answer. If it happens, this would be the most advertized air attack in history. The Iranians have sophisticated radar and surface to air capability they bought from China. It would be a mistake to assume that an attack can be made without losses.
How would the attack take place?
Israel will use its F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb.It will use their F16s as escorts.
As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close.
What is your guess on the outcome?
It is not possible to predict what will happen in Syria. The chaos today creates the best opportunity for Israel. Who knows what can happen in six-months? Every week Iran's defenses get stronger. This will be resolved, one way or the other, in less than six-months.
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I always thought they were highly advanced diesel-electrics from Howaltswerke, then the Isrealis pulled a "George Washington" in Haifa.
"Isrealis pulled a "George Washington" in Haifa"
As in attack a bunch of drunken, hung over German soldiers on Christmas morning and claim your ONE "battle victory" of the Rev. War? lol
USS George Washington (SSBN 598) was originally a Skipjack class attack sub. When the Polaris A3 (UGM-27) passed trials, they cut her abaft the sail and dropped the missile silos into the cut, then welded her up.
Really - Nuke dimensions and control linkages, even without the gear, are vital intel, PLUS it would make the Germans directly responsible for nuclear proliferation.
Harry is confused (unless Harry is aware of the German's supping another class of subs to Israel, news to me, if so please cite) they are diesel electrics - SSK Dolphin Class.
Great post Bruce.
Just ignore those calling for you to write "War & Peace" every time you mention Israel.
its ironic that israel is operating the worlds largest concentration camp.
maybe obama will invite netanyahu and ahmadinnerjacket for a beer summit and everything is fine
Perhaps that clear pathway from Israel to Iran over Iraq should be a good indicator of what the real reason for the US invasion of Iraq was. And please, don't forget where all our "Iraq WMD" intel came from.
Cui Bono?
Cui Prodest!
Cue John McCain singing. Stratfor and many others are of the same opinion. The Ayatollah shall not playeth with the Nukes.
Best guess is that you will "see" some new technologies that have not yet been "seen" so in essence you won't see anything, and neither will the Ayatollah's crew. They will definitely hear it though.
the American election process is an interesting sidebar to all this. Santorum is the most vocal supporter of Israel, but AIPAC is truly bipartisan. Pelosi threw Jane Harmon off the Intell Comm because of her ties with them, (for all you Pelosi haters) and who knows what the Israelis had to do with murdering Chandra Levy, but when that was over Gary Condit lost his seat on Intell, and his reelection. (turns out he was innocent of all charges) one thing we know about Israeli political methods is that you attack the middle, so that you can radicalize the opposition. this is why no leaders are ever allowed to rise up to power in Gaza, the Israeli policy is to permanently label the opposition as terrorists. this is the same strategy the Bush people used in 2000 against the Blue Dogs. the Israeli's don't have the firepower to accomplish the mission. short of a quick attack, the American president has no desire to make a long term committment in the region, and without that sort of committment Iran's nuclear program will not be deterred. Not sure what the Israel's know about American voting machines, but their money would be better spent there, where several politicians are on the ballot who would green light this long term effort. Forget which way the bombers fly, pay attention to which way the candidates turn, and voting irregularities. they got their man in 2000, they want more.
Just a thought, but with all those troops coming home to jobless prospects, wouldn't it be beneficial to the administration to open another front for the "war on terror"?
I keep trying to look at the bigger picture, to try to figure out just what these a$$holes are up to.
The last thing this administration needs is a bunch of disgruntled ex-military types milling around the occupy movement.
like Tim McVeigh?
"They call him Shaykh-al-Hashishim. He is their Elder, and upon his command all of the men of the mountain come out or go in...
they are believers of the word of their elder and everyone everywhere fears them, because they even kill kings."
- Benjamin of Tudela
Hassan al-Sabbah
http://badassoftheweek.com/hashashin.html
This is a very good article, Bruce.
A couple of points for everyone ranting about cabals, conspiracies, oil, the Jews and other issues.
If you are going down these paths you have displayed a large blind spot to the realities of the region. The Arab nations in the region have no love lost for the Persians in Iran.
THEY will not tolerate a nuclear armed Iran. If Israel attacks on its own, THEY will have condoned it.
Iran with a nuclear capability is an EXISTENTIAL threat to the ruling classes in the Arab nations. They would be impotent to resist "uprisings" when Iran can offer "support" to their Muslim brothers in the streets with impunity.
Saudi Arabia's $ 100/barrel cap on oil is conditional upon Obama's support for a "permanent solution" to the Iran problem.
Take some time and think through what this means in "real politik".
barliman
Your post gets to the real point of the issue. Iran won't use nukes, they may not even bother to finish construction of the bombs in the short run. But once the region knows they have that capability Iran will be able to cause all manor of trouble without concern about retaliation. Just look at North Korea and you can see the problems that will arise. With that said it's a problem for Israel, the Saudi's and others, not us.
FMR Bankster,
North Korea has direct relevance to this situation. If North Korea had Iran's political or religious aspirations, China would have stomped them down by whatever means necessary.
America has been the "honest broker" for the Middle East since the collapse of the Soviet Union. [General note: An "honest broker" in preserving the status quo ante] Obama has been the first American President to attempt to back away from this responsibility, primarily on ideological grounds [It doesn't matter what you think - It matters what the Saudi's and the other oil producing nations think]. He is far worse in this respect than the Middle East leaders can tolerate.
Israel having to openly defend the interests of the status quo is also not acceptable to the other Middle East leaders. They have had forty years of plausible denial with regard to Israel's influence in the region. They have been able to denounce Israel for public consumption while dealing with the Israeli's in private. America has done the dirty work of containing "disrupting situations". Israel, acting alone, removes the veil hiding the truth of the region's balance of power.
One of the problems, prior to the war in 2003, was Saddam's rebuilding of his military and its capabilities. He posed an imminent threat to the Saudi's and other Middle East nations. America did go to war over oil - not to seize it as the simplistic conspiracy monkeys assume - but to insure the existing states were not threatened and there would be no near monopoly held by any one player. The end goal for American interests was to prevent China from becoming the primary consumer of Middle East oil purchased from one near monopoly state.
If Obama forces Israel to "go it alone" he will de-stabilize not just the Middle East but other interlocking relationships into Europe, Asia and Central & South America. The last time we had a Presidential administration as stupid in real politik as Obama's was under Carter. For the record, even Carter wasn't this stupid while he was President.
barliman
Once again an Israel attacking Iran scenario that does not even once mention Russia or China.
Sorry but to explore this attack scenario without adding those two countries into the "what if" completely underestimates the significance of any choice to attack.
If Israel attacks Iran, it will not mark the end of anything but instead the beginning of something much bigger and more destructive than an Israel/Iran war.
You should also consider Pakistan (remember they have nukes). This from "uncomfirmed sources ",
European diplomat: If Israel attacks Iran, Pakistan will respond..."and what does India (they have nukes too) have to say about their oil supply drying up"
New Delhi Attack Tests India's Relations With Iranhttp://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405297020488330457722241205317107...
Hmmm, this might get interesting <sarc>.
Russia works with Israel when it is advantageous. The Russians and Israelis are actually quite similar in how they play ball. Self interest is first, everyone else including "allies" are expendable.
Yeah and Russia stand to rake in some serious cash if oil prices spike and end up being the stronger for it.
"Apart from his defense policies, Reagan also weakened the Soviet Union through economic moves. ..... One of the most effective ways in which his economic policies weakened the Soviet Union was by helping bring about a drastic fall in the price of oil in the 1980s, thereby denying the Soviet Union large inflows of hard currency".
http://wais.stanford.edu/History/history_ussrandreagan.htm
Russia and China are businessmen - arrangements can be made for a price.
The Iranian religious leaders are not businessmen - Their business is to follow the wishes of Allah - which sadly does not bode well for us infidels.
Sell crazy somewhere else. We're all stocked up.
I don't think Harry is crazy. Religious fundamentals of all faiths place "sound business decisions", not to mention their humanity, (the three strengths associated with humanity are love, kindness, and social intelligence) on a VERY low priority.
Look at the support the US Religious right is providing Israel so has be hasten the time of "Rapture".
"In one cataclysmic moment, millions of people around the world disappear. Terror and chaos prevail as the horrific events of the Tribulation unfold. Those left behind face war, famine, plagues, and natural disasters of epic proportions. As the planet hurtles toward Armageddon, the ultimate showdown between good and evil begins."
But I must concur with your statement, we are indeed "all stocked up" on crazy!
That zit has been festering for over 4000 years and found it's way here when the fed took over the Treasury of the united States.
If we let it pop, the pus will drown us all. How is that for crazy?
"Those left behind face war, famine, plagues, and natural disasters of epic proportions."
Like ravaging tornadoes, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, tsunamis, white outs in Alaska & Northern Europe, the deliberate starving of innocent's in the ME,on & on... ad infintum.
If we haven't learned from Korea and Vietnam, GOD help us. Truth is, the PTB are the one's all stocked up on crazy!
"...US Religious right is providing Israel..." http://educate-yourself.org/cn/UnionJack.pdf Quid pro quo
not this time... Putin knows full well what the cabal has in mind globally... it has already be done to Russia and China once, by the same people. there is no more give... if the cabal wants Russia to look the other way, they will have to get rid of putin. unlike the bs puppet leaders in the US and Europe, he is ready to fight in the interest of the Russian people, rather than the international corporate oligarchs.
Really? Putin is ready to fight in the interests of Russian people? Are you sure you don't mean the interests of Russian oligarchs?
History repeats itself. "Russian people" are one in the same as the "Russian oligarchs", the other human souls living in Russian are "serfs" definitely NOT classified as "Russian People".
Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose ...
Putin has been at war with zionist oligarchs in russia for a long time... but you are not allowed to know that in the MSM:
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/60263/marshall-i-goldman/putin-and-the-oligarchs
looks like they already have nukes:
http://www.godlikeproductions.com/forum1/message1770846/pg1
War with Iran gives the US government a reason to give the people for $5+ gas and a big dip in the markets right before the election. They like expensive gas anyhow - the peasants should be riding bicycles to work if they can't afford a golf cart 'car'. How can you really enjoy your wealth if the peons aren't wallowing in abject poverty?
Interesting post but another step towards acceptance of war as inevitable. Therin lies some kernals of truth about our future in MiddleEast Its not about finding peace based on facts and real threats, but what Isreal percieves as a threat whether it be Soviet Union Jewish emmigration policy(Jacson-Vanik), Iraqs nuclear capability, and now Iran's capablity to make a single bomb that Defense and intelligence experts agree is not imminent in short term. In long term Israel is demographically losing in MiddleEast which explains why they and Neo Cons are trying to establish war as inevitable. Bush II seems to have embrassed this view while Obama is avoiding this view in an election year. Vote according to your view and conscience.
Israel's problem is not outside its borders.
Israel is turning into a country of religious extremists. Already the ultra-orthodox community is growing rapidly, and their thoughts and actions are in many respects more extreme than your average Islamist.
It is predicted that they will have a (political-) majority in less than 30 years.
Oh, and they have nuclear weapons.
This is NOT a country the West wants to support. We need to get the hell out of the Middle East, stop using oil ASAP, or we will be drawn in the biggest pile of shit you can imagine.
All this speculation about Israel hitting Iran with F-15s and F-16s looks like a designed distraction to me.
Judging by recent assassination events in Iran, Israel obviously has a network of sophisticated operatives in that country. While Iran is manning its air defenses, those operatives will discreetly deposit containers set to release highly toxic nerve gas on a time-delayed basis. One day all the personnel in Iran's nuclear facilitiies will be mysteriously dead, and Israel will shrug their shoulders and plausibly say they have no idea what happens is some far-away country.
Based on what I know about such facilities, that would be quite an accomplishment for Israel, or anyone else for that matter, to pull off. Access is limited. What you bring in and out is checked. You'd have to have moles for every single facility. Each operative would have to be willing to die in the process too. They would have to circumvent multiple security obstacles to get the devices into the facilities. Sure, it is possible. Likely? No effing way in hell.
I wouldn't be surprised if Israel has some more cunning plan than simply sending their air force on a long range bombing sortie. The Germans landed gliders on Fort Eben-Emael in Belgium and that small force of commandos managed to take out the forts guns and trap the defenders in the bowels of their own fortress. Something like that might be in the cards. We might also consider a 9/11 type mission with an unmanned civil airliner loaded with explosives as an alternative to F-15s. Not too hard to paint the livery of some airline and issue a mayday request for emergeny landing in Iran and try and crash the plane into a nuclear facility. Iran might be very reluctant to open fire on a civil airliner ( afterall they complained bitterly and with justification when the USS Vincennes shot down an Iranian airliner).
Unfortunately for the Israelis, the facilities were built in deep and hardened underground facilities, not in skyscrapers made from magical low melting steel. har har
molecular disassociation is apparently not limited to above ground material. See holes punched through roofs and sub-pavement on and around WTC5 & 6.
http://drjudywood.com/articles/DEW/StarWarsBeam4.html#Holes
http://drjudywood.com/
http://drjudywood.com/articles/DEW/StarWarsBeam1.html
http://drjudywood.com/articles/dirt/dirt5.html
http://911research.wtc7.net/wtc/evidence/photos/gzsurround.html
http://911research.wtc7.net/wtc/evidence/photos/gzheli1.html
Apparently phased array antennae can 'target' ULF quite precisely, and a bit of a HAARP induced 'earthquake' should reach the parts that other bunker busters cant reach..
IRAN PERSIA 7000 years civilization WORLD EMPIRE
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LAflnmWyEd0&feature=related
In Daniel 8:3, Daniel during the Babylonian Empire was taken by a vision to Shushan (greek:Susa) to the palace, which according to Fruchtenbaum wasn't even built yet! He had a vision of the ram with two horns, one higher than the other (Medo-Persia) and was rammed into by the goat with the notable horn (Alexander, 356bc) and broke the rams two horns--- in 334 bc Persia's empire status ceased.
as usual, anyone talking about the issue of Israel gets crucified.
let me add to it: "But we preach Christ (Messiah) crucified, unto the Jews a scandal, and unto the gentiles foolishness."
the old Israelites were punished by God by using the Persian empire.
Am I the only one out there that thinks that yesterday's plunge in gold prices was somehow correlated to Iran's new policy of accepting gold for oil shipments? Western countries have already put a financial embargo in place ( freezing Iranian bank assets, not accepting Iranian oil shipments etc) trying to squeeze a regime change from within.
Maybe, but I'm sure Iran does not mind. Means people have to pay more gold for their oil because of a faux fiat market.
Israel would probably need bunker busters and Nukes to take out the Iranian sites, even if they can't physically destroy the underground complexes the Nukes will mess up the neighborhood for a few hundred years and thats good enough.
N Korea is a good example of patience and carrot/stick to pry a rogue regime away from bad behavior, it would probably work with Iran too.
Actually Israel's objective is to use economic and political forces to get O'Bama out of office and a more compliant repub into office. O'Bama is too sympathetic to palestininans so he must go. The simplist way to accomplish this is to rachet up the risk of an Israeli sneak attack on Iran (this time) and push oil prices hgh enough to send US back into recession and bring in Mitt as our savior - and more importantly Israel's savior. If massive attacks and ground troops are required then Israel needs the US to do the heavy lifting and take out Iran for them. O'B won't do it but Mutt probably would. Senseless middle east wars are still popular with repub rank and file, this is just the newest version of the WMD card!
If Israel is left with no choice it will go it alone. Also, don’t rule out an all out assault on the Iranian leadership or an EMP against the Iran infrastructure vs. a conventional bunker buster approach. The simple fact is that the Iranian nuke program could already be well beyond the ability to significantly delay or eliminate short of these two other unconventional avenues of attack. Iran will also certainly retaliate with attacks on Persian Gulf oil infrastructure and chem/bio weapons from Lebanon and Syria into Israel. In short this ‘will’ get out of hand quickly no matter who, how or when.
My prediction is that Israel will attempt to scare Obama with the scenario above in an attempt to get the US on board in order to minimize the blow back from Iran to the world economy. If he doesn’t take the bait then Israel will wait and see which direction the upcoming US presidential election is going. If it looks like a lock for Obama (fat chance) than there is little to be gained by Israel delaying one more day. If it’s ‘any’ of the Republicans ‘save’ Ron Paul (fat chance again) then delaying until a year from now and picking up the USA as a partner could well be worth the wait.
So I would put the go decision to be less than a year from now.
Then again Iran could see the same thing and trigger before we have all the pieces in place. Very dangerous situation altogether. I also suspect that Iran is further along than they are leading us to believe. It’s in their best interest after all to play for time. What better way to play for time than to give the appearance that the west has time to spare?
First, conventional, even specialized, weapons will not do the job without them being nuclear. Even then some facilities would survive. Iran is just like Iraq, and all experts know it. If you really want to stop them, boots will have to be on the ground. That's been the plan from the beginning though more than likely. By beginning I mean way back before Iraq was fooled into attacking Kuwait.
Second, the Russians are currently and rapidly upgrading air defense systems in Iran. It isn't just the Chinese, and it is the latest and greatest tech on their end. Iran will not be Iraq in other words. The sky will be full of missiles, not tracer rounds.
Third, who's to say Russia and China will sit this one out and allow their neighbor to be up next on the empire's chopping block?
Fourth, if you didn't know it already, Iran has subs that fire nuclear tipped torpedos. Sure, they would be Russian supplied, but they have the platform to deliver them.
The general population of Iran is not gung-ho about the prospect of their sons,husbands and brothers dying for the ambitions of their religious rulers.
They pawns like the rest of us.
are their "religious rules" flying the planes that will be attacking Iran? I must have missed that somewhere.
Nothing after sundown on friday. Unless it's going to be considered recreation.