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On Israel and Iran
A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. I spoke with a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion. There were no secrets discussed, but his thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.
Will Israel allow Iran to develop a nuke?
Not a chance in hell.
What is the “over - under on timing”?
Certainly less than two years.
Does Israel have the capacity to take out concrete hardened facilities in Iran?
Yes, but this is by no means an easy task.
Explain?
It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran).
Which route will Israel choose?
It will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.
Will Syria attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft flying over its territory?
Yes, it has surface-to-air capability and it also has MiG-23 and MiG-27 fighters. The Israelis will escort their bombers over Syria with their F16s. These fighters will wipe out anything that Syria puts up. The ground-based defenses are old, and no doubt, poorly manned these days.
Is it a problem if Israeli attack bombers fly over Iraqi territory?
No one gives a shit about Iraq anymore.
What happens when the Israeli bombers get over Iranian air space?
This question has no answer. If it happens, this would be the most advertized air attack in history. The Iranians have sophisticated radar and surface to air capability they bought from China. It would be a mistake to assume that an attack can be made without losses.
How would the attack take place?
Israel will use its F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb.It will use their F16s as escorts.
As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close.
What is your guess on the outcome?
It is not possible to predict what will happen in Syria. The chaos today creates the best opportunity for Israel. Who knows what can happen in six-months? Every week Iran's defenses get stronger. This will be resolved, one way or the other, in less than six-months.
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You are right; Boots on the ground.
Israel will get only one chance. They have their backs to the wall and nowhere to go. They will do whatever is required. It will be all in.
Forward Mounting Base, Boots on the ground. And THEIR nukes will be in the air as soon as the strike leaves Israel airspace. And for this reason they cannot and will not tell anyone.
If anyone uses nuclear weapons in the Middle East, people here had better be well prepared in advance for a counterstrike on US Soil.
Bruce:
Thanks for the post. It was very interesting.
I just think your source's analysis was too simplistic. Not all these F-15's will carry the GBU. Some will be needed for "wild weasel" anti-radar/GCI and anti-SAM missions. Some will be needed for SEAD: suppression of enemy AAA defense installations. Some may get shot down. F-16s can also be used for some of these missions, but not all, given range and "time over target" issues. Then there is the added complexity of re-fuelling.
Many experts doubt whether this could be accomplished in a single "alpha-strike" mission. They may have to go back. Then what?
I'm guessing that "mystery" aircraft will launch from Iraq to help. Whom will be flying them is anyone's guess. Otherwise, I just don't think there is enough assurance that the airstrike will be successful enough to warrant the risks.
Unless the Israelis use Tactical Nukes, Then all you need is an 'Alpha-Strike". You will even be able to double up on each target. Also, who is to say that Israel doesn't have their own version of the F-117.
The pure naked face of true facism. If you cannot see the Hitler in this like the jews do, then you are blind or in denial
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxEWQWozkN4
You have your sources. Impressive...
Since you have a nose for that stuff, who is going to be the next guy labelled Hitler, forcing humanity to take him down, US citizenly so to speak?
What (who) do you love ?
The use of hate can only go so far.
Fear of losing what you love is, by far, a more powerful motivator.
In answer to who will be the "next guy ":
Scott Walker.
Do I win something ?
Here's my prediction:
Whatever happens Israel will not engage in a 10 year, half-assed war that ultimately accomplishes nothing and is characterized by a lot of prancing around about the enemy's feelings.
Only we do stupid shit like that.
"If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close."
...but don't look for a spike in orders for boots because there won't be.
"Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close."
*Of course, we'll never get such a "sign". Israel will get these bombs through back channels - or even has them already.
Israel will attack when it's ready - without warning - in the middle of the night - most likely it's waiting for something else to distract the world.
You think the destablizing of Syria, with all the fighting there, was an accident? I don't think so.
Also, you don't need a 30,000 lb bunker buster if you have nuclear weapons. Nothing penetrates as good as a nuclear weapon, except perhaps John Holmes.
Expect a giant clusterfuck soon.
Even nukes have limitations on ground penetration. If the bunker is built properly, it would still survive. 100+ feet of solid rock is common for our shelters. They are built that way for a reason. Sure, you'd have to be dug out, but the weapon would NOT destroy the facility. Anyone seriously suggesting conventional weapons simply does not know what they are talking about.
Iran's sites were built with the help of the Russians and the Chinese, two nations that are experts at building nuclear shelters. Those two nations also happen to have a lot at stake if Iran falls to the "West."
Boots will have to be on the ground to succeed, and I suspect that's been the plan for a long time already. Will Russia and China sit by and allow it? Based on what I'm seeing, I strongly suggest they will NOT.
this is all red herring anyway. the U.S. and Israelis don't give a shit about the nuclear facilities because they already know that Iran is not after atomic weapons. this is about destoying Iran and Syria and setting up puppet governments. The bunker busters will be dropped on people in bunkers, not nuclear facilities.
My post was not meant to imply that they are developing nuclear weapons.
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A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel.
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if Israel+USA attacks IRAN we gonna have 3rd world war..
within year IRAN will occupy IRAQ, then within next couple years Muslim EGYPT
will occupy whole North Aftrica sub-region. then IRAN+EGYPT will occupy
oil producing countries in middle east , oil will cost 300/400 $ pb,
and then we goona have global depression
AND THEN IRAN/EGYPT WILL OCCUPY ISRAEL ..and whole experiment will be over, and Jews will leave wholly land forever, heading proabably to Texas , USA
Idiots in USA/EUROPE do their best bringing down regimes all over Middle/East, N.Africa.. thats 100% carbon copy what happened in Europe before ww2..
alx
ps
Bruce, pal.. ask your friend WHAT IS NEXT IN CASE OF ATTACK? we will see
how samrt your guy is ..
AND THEN IRAN/EGYPT WILL OCCUPY ISRAEL .... and Jews will leave wholly land forever
You forgot a step. And then Isreael drops 200 nukes on muslim population centers.
alexwest, english isn't your first language, is it?
No world war. Nothing actually. Iranians are alone in that mess.
US citizens have written a future of quasi certainty.
US citizenism is constraining human behaviour so no surprise to come from that angle.
Rushing in fantasy predictions is one of the favourite US citizen hobbies.
Sorry nonymous, but the US citizens have no control over a government run amok.
My favorite hobby is restoring things others have left to rot. Get it?
Saving natural resources already consumed!!!
Your hatred for our people is indicative of the Bildebergers, and so your true colors shine.
Hope you get to be point man in the ground assault on Iran. CIA ru?
One thing is for certain: Americans are being stupid for taking sides in this high-stakes game of chicken between Iran and Israel. And the Iranians can't be all that stupid for persuading China and Russia to join them on their side to help defy Western Imperialism.
Let’s be blunt. An attack on Iran has nothing to do with Iran’s supposed ability to acquire nuclear weapons and never did, just as the U.S. military invasion of Iraq never had anything to do with 9/11 or “weapons of mass destruction.” It has everything to do with the fact that Iran produces 10% of the world’s oil, and (unlike every other oil producer in the U.S. Empire’s sphere of influence) chooses to sell that oil for money other than Federal Reserve notes.
It really is that simple.
What you will never, ever 'hear' about is the amazing resiliency the Iranian people have being caught between a regime they wish to alter/amend and the imperialists breathing down their necks and trying to subvert the entire process. Unlike the US, where every swingin' douche and his mother have an 'opinion' they've been vocal about actual independence.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NB22Ak04.html
Its more than that. A strong Iran is a threat to Zionist expansion. All threats to Zionism are being systematically attacked using military, economic and cultural means.
Why can't Iran and Israel both be assets to America? Probably because American's are infidels, Iran would not want to be our best friend.
censored
I wonder if Iran has built their nuke facilities by boring into 400 feet of bedrock? No single conventional bomb is going to break through that.
No combination of specialized bombs will either unless they are tactical nukes.
...and more than one tactical nuke will be needed. They'll all be ground bursts and they'll have to "dig" their way down till the shock waves do enough damange to the facilities. I hope India and Russia don't mind the radioactive fallout cloud this will send into the air...and possibly their way.
a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion.
(lol)
Who could it be?
A. Taxi driver
B. Some guy siting next to me at the bar
C. The old man who feeds the pigeons every morning when I walk my dog
D. Dominique Strauss - Khan
What and f'n weak response to an excellent post by a respected author, and the fact that he responded (politely) to your grade school attempt at a rebuttal speaks volumes of his integrity. If all you have is pseudo ad hominem rather than a cogent response do the smart thing and stfu.
its not a response, its a joke. Are you his mom?
Aren't A,B,C and D all the same guy now?
Aren't A,B,C and D all the same guy now?
lol. Almost...
A. Taxi driver
B. Some guy siting next to me at the bar
C. The old man wearing the ankle bracelet monitor who feeds the pigeons every morning when I walk my dog
D. Dominique Strauss - Khan
His name is Fracois and I'm dating his sister! How DARE YOU question my integrity! Now be a nice dobermin and go attack Greece...
Yes, you are entitled to that. You would never see this article in the MSM for exactly the reason you site. No name attached to this, brings up the credibility issue.
I'm a blogger. I'm not in the MSM and I don't play by their rules. I have 750 published articles. I've been vetted by folks a thousand times. I'm not sure that this fact provides the credibility you want. It's all I have to offer.
No one says things like this for attribution. That was the understanding. Does this fellow "know" what is going to happen? No, I don't think anyone does. Does he have insight I don't have? Yes he does. I thought I would pass it on; take it for what you think it is worth.
bk
I will give you credit for talking to the fellow yourself instead of someone who said, they knew someone who heard him say.
Otherwise, the post reads very much like the analysis of how Israel could strike Iran published in the IHT last week.
Quite to the contrary, Bruce -- the MSM cites "confidential sources" all the time, and generally with about the same level of detail as yours: "a person with knowledge of the matter," e.g.
Developing and protecting reliable sources is what journalists do. Weak stenography for those in power is what the MSM has found to be comfortable and easy -- but it isn't journalism by a long shot.
Whenever you grant a source anonymity, you trade on your own name brand capital for credibility. The NYT, for example, has admitted (proudly, in fact) that they work with the Whitehouse to [edit|censor] articles, but they too rely on their own name brand capital for credibility when citing unnamed sources.
I would go so far as to say that your piece may be more reliable, since you have so little incentive to misrepresent your findings.
Cheers!
and i do you remember your crappy weather forecast for this winter Bruce. And yes "it's personal with me too."
I was completely wrong. First to admit it. I'm no weather man. I was looking at charts and predictions from people who do know weather. They were wrong, I jumped on the bad side of the bandwagon.
Such is the "perils of prediction." this much we all know: when the actual weatherman can't tell you what tomorrow's weather will be "there's hope for all of us."
Syria's your "jumping off point." Already the Adminisration has changed its public voice (180 degrees i might add--and just after my bitchin' about announcing 50,000 head count reductions in the infantry at the same time "we're leaving" i might add) to one of "the President is going to have options on the table." The only way to go after Iran is through Syria....and the Russians and the Chinese have handed this option to the USA and Israel on a silver platter...should they wish it. "Take Syria...take Iran." End of story.
That's the reason why I have followed you for years, your reverance to report without bias. Thanks for all your work!
My friends and family thank you too.
-JP
Your welcome!
"As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close."
Did that include these?
U.S. Quietly Supplies Israel With Bunker-Busting Bombs By THOM SHANKER Published: September 23, 2011http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/24/world/us-quietly-supplies-israel-with-...
I have seen estimates of 200 GBU-28 transferred to Israel.
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The upcoming issue of Newsweek, which is set to hit newsstands on Monday, claims that two years ago US President Barack Obama secretly approved the transfer of 55 "bunker-busters", a form of deep-penetrating bombs, to Israel. The country had been requesting the bombs since the time of the Bush administration, the Daily Beast website reported on Friday.
According to the report, US and Israeli officials told Newsweek that the GBU-28 type bombs, which could be potentially be used in an attack on Iran's nuclear sites, were transferred to Israel in 2009, just several months after Obama came into office.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4126503,00.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-28
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The GBU-28 may not be capable of doing the job...Our newest 30,000lb Massive Ordinance Penetrator is what can do the job but Israel cannot deliver this weapon with an F-15. Are these the 20 to which you refer?
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Leon Panetta revealed to the Wall Street Journal that the U.S.’ most powerful bunker buster has failed tests designed to prove it could penetrate and destroy Iran’s most hardened nuclear facility in Fordow:
But never fear, the boys in the back room are devising ever larger and more destructive capability for the 30,000-lb. weapon. They spent $330-million for 20 of these babies. They say they need another $80-million. Eventually, they promise to get it right:
In the meantime, Israel, which doesn’t yet have our most lethal variety of bunker buster, pursues its own plans to attack Iran. Reuven Pedatzur, one of the leading analysts of Israel’s military air capability, warns in a deliciously ironic Haaretz column that if the U.S. doesn’t yet have a weapon capable of knocking out Iran’s most impenetrable facilities, Israel has no business trying to do this with even less capable weaponry:
The Washington Post’s Walter Pincus adds a few other caveats that should make policymakers in Tel Aviv and Washington think and think again about what they’re planning. He mentions that the Israelis don’t have enough refueling capability to cover the needs of their planes for a 2,000 mile total round trip journey in attacking Iran. The columnist lists six major Iranian target sites for attack and notes how much more complicated such strikes would be than the previously successful ones against Saddam’s reactor and Syria’s.
http://www.richardsilverstein.com/tikun_olam/2012/02/08/u-s-most-powerfu...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massive_Ordnance_Penetrator
but if Isreal has some of them, would it be feasible to swap the conventional explosive for a nuke? Seems to me that if Isreal used nukes in bunker busters, they could claim that the resulting radiation came from the destroyed nuclear facilities ... the claim might work for the MSM, at least.
air burst nuke will not necessarily destroy an underground facility...plus they really don't want to start the conflict by going nuclear,imo.
true they can claim anything but an Israeli nuke would leave a distinct undeniable signature. bad enough that they may destroy at least one or two research reactors. I'm guessing the Israeli's would not attack a commercial power light-water reactor.
Hey it would be really cool if you could provide such links and sources concerning the Iranian nuclear program. Why can't that be found?
programs programs...get your programs.
http://www.nti.org/gmap/?country=iran&layers=biological,chemical,missile...
http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/iran/
http://armscontrolwonk.com/
My question is: Will the US provide air space information and satellite information with the invaders?
My question is: Will the US provide air space information and satellite information with the invaders?
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a better question might be...can we stop them from taking said info.
unknowable really...but I would put the likelihood of the US supplying real time data at 75%.