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On Israel and Iran
A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. I spoke with a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion. There were no secrets discussed, but his thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.
Will Israel allow Iran to develop a nuke?
Not a chance in hell.
What is the “over - under on timing”?
Certainly less than two years.
Does Israel have the capacity to take out concrete hardened facilities in Iran?
Yes, but this is by no means an easy task.
Explain?
It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran).
Which route will Israel choose?
It will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.
Will Syria attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft flying over its territory?
Yes, it has surface-to-air capability and it also has MiG-23 and MiG-27 fighters. The Israelis will escort their bombers over Syria with their F16s. These fighters will wipe out anything that Syria puts up. The ground-based defenses are old, and no doubt, poorly manned these days.
Is it a problem if Israeli attack bombers fly over Iraqi territory?
No one gives a shit about Iraq anymore.
What happens when the Israeli bombers get over Iranian air space?
This question has no answer. If it happens, this would be the most advertized air attack in history. The Iranians have sophisticated radar and surface to air capability they bought from China. It would be a mistake to assume that an attack can be made without losses.
How would the attack take place?
Israel will use its F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb.It will use their F16s as escorts.
As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close.
What is your guess on the outcome?
It is not possible to predict what will happen in Syria. The chaos today creates the best opportunity for Israel. Who knows what can happen in six-months? Every week Iran's defenses get stronger. This will be resolved, one way or the other, in less than six-months.
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Great post B Glutton, thanks...
Nice, GBU-28 has GPS navigation.
Could meet the fate of the predator drone...
Thanks Bruce, but, Iran isn't developing nuclear weapons, they have something more powerfull that needs to be liberated from them.
Respectfully,
-JP
Leon Panetta admits Iran is not building nuclear weapons:
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2012/01/09/panetta-admits-iran-not-developing-nukes/
Israel admits Iran is not building nuclear weapons:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/01/even-israel-admits-that-iran-has-not-decided-to-build-a-nuclear-bomb.html
Sounds like it all about the USA and the preservation of the Petro dollar and securing votes at this point.
Now, TOTUS just countered Leon Panetta, IAEA and Israels statement that Iran is not persuing a nuclear weapon program.
Guess the Jewish vote is in danger if he doesn't back Israel blindly and repeat these rediculious claims he is making at AIPAC.
So.. what's all the "war" talk about?
Their humanity?
What do they have?
Black gold.
http://youtu.be/SnXfRstZntE -- Beverly Hillbillies
Even better once you get past the advertising.
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xasgz2_saturday-night-live-the-bel-airabs_fun
Sovereignty
A Petro based economy for one, two, They cut a huge energy contract with Russia and India to supply their energy needs be it electricity or oil. Three, Iran gave the big F-U to the Petro Dollar, aka World's Reserve Currency and the implications of colladeral damage to USA Saudi Arabia et al are unfathomable to the Dollar hegemony world wide.
These implications threaten the very existance of WRC and "there" not going to have it, it's a house of cards to begin with built on a table with 3 legs, the fourth imaginary leg is confidence but could collapse the system before the game is over if that vital illusion is taken away.
Why do you think they MSM have been so quiet about who chairs OPEC now?
Just my analysis of Geo Political. Take it for what you may feel the correct conclusions for manufactured war.
There is a very telling memo out of a Rand Corp. style Think tank dated back to 1999 or 2001? stating that a false war has to be waged aginst Iran by 2011, The excuse to cripple Iran will be under the guise of nuclear ambitions with the smack of a Nuclear warhead-s in the making. Totally contrived. Search: America will die from one million paper cut's. Good read. Make no doubt about it, we will war period.
It's all Patriot games and psyops till the first conventional bunker buster munitions from Israel hit's Bashir. Russia supplied Iran for there reactor fuel so automaticly they have a vested interest in their success, I wouldn't doubt Russia will take a military presents in or near Iran to avoid outside threats, like us.
We haven't been too nice to them over the past 30 years so paybacks are a bitch, like wearing 2 left shoes in a marathon.
They knew back then that Iran's turn to chair OPEC was by 2011, simply because it's their turn, nothing more, nothing less. It's all planned. I will look for that document when I get home, gotta run.
Regaurds,
-JP
Here is part of the excerpt from the body of a document I have saved:
I will post the link tonight if it's still available, you just have to read their Intellegence "white pages" to see what's brewing under the surface.
"The Iranians are about to commit an "offense" far greater than Saddam Hussein's conversion to the euro of Iraq’s oil exports in the fall of 2000. Numerous articles have revealed Pentagon planning for operations against Iran as early as 2005. While the publicly stated reasons will be over Iran's nuclear ambitions, there are unspoken macroeconomic drivers explaining the Real Reasons regarding the 2nd stage of petrodollar warfare - Iran's upcoming euro-based oil Bourse."
Kish Island is fully operational right now. Iran Oil Bourse.
-JP
Correct, and dumbass Europeans imposed sanctions on the nation that traded oil in Euros vs petro-dolars.
The US overlords are smart though, I give them that. Screw up Europe + make own citizenry and everything else relying on petro-dolar more dependable on them...
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4196357,00.html
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-kurdish-fighters-de...
I guess the kicker is who do you trust to tell the truth?
With so much dis-information going around, it will cloak any truths that may be exposed... a la Churchill's famous comment about the truth is protected by a bodyguard of lies.
Did Wikileaks stumble on the truth? Who knows. The only thing one knows is that Iran will be attacked at some point and it will be decidedly one sided. The new regime that replaces the present regime will find a better place in the world for the Iranians.
The new regime that replaces the present regime will find a better place in the world for the Iranians.
__________________________________________________
Absolutely. That better place being to be coopted by US citizen nations.
For other results, well, Iranians have better to face reality as it is: no matter how bad their current situation is, US citizens will make it worse.
Good analysis from a Pentagon type bureaucrat; so BK you're very eclectic in your interests, and thus kudos to you for sharing it with us here.
If Israel does go down that route, it will hotten up a new 30 year war in the ME. Which could take down the whole Pax Americana construct. Its very risky for US to give their green light to that; they don't have the "boots on soil" capability to handle a major Arab/Iran/Turkish/Afghano-Pak conflagration/push to kick out all western influence from the region. That could be the bottom line of this new military play perceived regionally as western authorised aggression. As western influence is now perceived as being disseminatd by two ageing and debt ridden continents, (witness the prolific Arab spending, like Qatari money in France), who are no longer the flame carriers of civilization. Nor are their key allies in the region : militarist Israel and Wahhhabite Saud monarchy, examples of probity in terms of western values, something which is not lost on the populations of western countries.
We are going one step up the ladder of clash of civilizations, double standards on who is entitled to be nuclear nation state; thus total devaluation of USA's pre-eminent role as fair handed world leader.
Something those who criticize the US admin at home for would now be openly confirmed by the hot war that would result abroad. Iran is not one to take this type of operation without retaliation. US congress, as usual, is totally insensitive to this argument, as it is to white collar crime persecution at home.
http://www.rlynn.co.uk/uploads/pdfs/Intelligence%20and%20the%20Wealth%20...
IQ is not the only factor, moral decadence is also. The same people can be uber-alles one day and reduced to obesity the next. Just saying...read history, its not a question of IQ alone.
Just now, I checked http://www.barnhardt.biz and saw her most excellent post on the same topic. Basically, American society is screwed because we have trampled the honest and rewarded corruption and parasitism for so long that even after the collapse, the Free Shit Army will still be big enough to dominate all levels of society. Look what happened to Russia.
Those who matter now see morality as a weakness to be exploited. They see that sociopaths have free reign to prey upon the honest, and the honest will be punished if they try to protect themselves. Potential traitors are everywhere, ready to take their cut. This is all according to plan. A corrupt people are easy for the NWO to govern. And it was so easy for them to get America to piss away any morality it once had. We will shake off the last drop with this war.
Your name is very apropos...
IQ tests, Max Weber, citation by severely obscure bullshit studies, that was fantastic. I noticed it was a .uk piece... figures I mean, you need an underclass to cheer for their own destruction after all, as those fine British industrialists knew so well.
Weird how the corporate capitalist model works like gangbusters in China isn't it? They should do a 'study' preferably by Oxford... you know, for credibility.
You have to put food on family. Producing propaganda is a good way to achieve that in US citizen societies.
That's an impressive chinese / english algo you run your comments through before posting. CIA?
And that, my friends, is the entire reason why Syria is being "reorganized with humanitarian intervention" right now!
Don't look for Israel to attack until Syria is properly destablized.
That's the point. Syria is about as unstabilized as a country could get today.
The fellow I spoke with thought that the current situation was "optimal" as far as Isreal was concerned.
Bruce, I know I have given you a poke or two in the past, but I want you to know how much I appreciate your posts. Most of all, I like how you stick around and give a little dialogue. What good is commentary without a little dialogue. Thanks!
Regardless of the comments, your post does sensitize one to some issues.
Also, they have to stirke Iran before their host (USSA) destroys itself. Once Israel is the regional military hegemone, taking control of targeted ME oil resources will be relatively easy for an amoral psychopathic regime.
Bruce, they map is exellent.. It tells the story of the past 10 years.. Including the war with Lebanon.. For Israel, this is all about expanding its borders.. Wait and see. if they succeed, they will have the land from the Nile to the Mesopotamia.. Just like they think they are entitled to. The good ole book.. For the Jews, and by the Jews.. Isn't life grand..
Clearly you're running out of patience and I guarantee you that nothing will be 'over' in six months. I suggest you hit the history books...
I'll just leave this here...
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/others/Escobar.html
An I for an I....screw Israel. If they pick the fight, let them take the punches. I think we've got enough on our plate without Mr. Nobel Peace Prize throwing more gloves in the ring.
Libya was just like Iran right?
Eye don't understand how you fucked that up.
Ewe bastard! You just wasted that poor sod's coffee...
Did you mean "I" as in Israel and Iran, cause that makes sense? If so I get it, too late though.
first time in 6 years working at this job- I spit coffee all over my keyboard- thanks!
What does blog jockey pay these days?
I think you've jumped the shark with this one, Bruce!
Allegedly this is an old Persian proverb - but it is probably popular elsewhere.
A Chicken is stolen from the family compound - the father tells his sons to find and kill the culprit, the sons say `dont be silly, its only a chicken`
Subsequently a goat is taken and the family react in the same way.
When the daughter is abducted and raped, the sons vow to track down and kill the culprits. The father tells the sons that it is their fault for letting the chicken thief go unpunished.
this cannnot possibly be a a genuine persian proverb because the woman is being valued more than a chicken
You obviously know nothing about persian women.
no, but I know a lot about chicken.
Actually, what I know about persians comes from the ones I went to school with in California. If you ignore the forced virginity checks by their dads and brothers each month, the arranged marriages, the requirement to be in the company of a male family member when not at school or at home, being made to eat at women's only tables while the males sat at their tables, their inheriting one fourth of what their brothers inherit, then yes, you are right, I dont know anything about Persian women.
sounds nothing like orthodox jews...and various other cultures.
Jews? How in the hell can you think of Jews will defending Persians? WTF
Davey, he was responding to an alleged PERSIAN Proverb, thus the comment about PERSIAN Woman. Try to take your emotions out of evaluting a comment and read it in the context it was given.
you mean the context where he blamed their persian problems on their "arab religion?" The "context" of my (and his) comment had to do with the hypocrisy of focusing on the "arab religion" as the monoply of female suppression and the source of "their problems."
Of course he doesn't John, but it is his duty to degrade Persians so we can view them as lesser people and ourselves as morally superior.. and then.. bombs away... with no guilt..
Finally you get it. Now if Persians acted like human beings we might have negative emotions about killing them.
Persians are ok, its their arab religion imposed on them that has messed up their culture and country. But of course you could not see that, reactionary you.
yes, it's all their "evil" religion. Our "good" religion, especially in its organized form does nothing but good. We should really show preferences to religions, our founders would have liked that....
yeah, obviously what they need is some good ole "american" culture... I'm mean, its working out spendidly over here, just look around at the ignorant zombified drones that populate the U.S. we can gift that to them after we destroy their civiliation. /s
Bruce you seem like a decent fella. Why not discuss slightly more realistic scenarios of why Israel will bomb Iran. Everyone knows it's the world's biggest lie that Iran is a threat. Iran is one of the largest oil producers now trading outside the dollar complex, right? This is nothing but more US/Anglo/Israel banker control over global oil resources. I get very dissapointed to find out guys like you are run in the mill Baby Boomer globalists at heart. Who cares how they bomb. What can we do to stop it is what matters.
Ron Paul 2012