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On Israel and Iran
A very big question mark hanging over the global table is what the hell is going to happen between Iran and Israel. I spoke with a fellow in Europe I know who has an informed opinion. There were no secrets discussed, but his thoughts on some of the variables including Syria, bunker bombs and timing were interesting.
Will Israel allow Iran to develop a nuke?
Not a chance in hell.
What is the “over - under on timing”?
Certainly less than two years.
Does Israel have the capacity to take out concrete hardened facilities in Iran?
Yes, but this is by no means an easy task.
Explain?
It is not possible for the Israel Air force to attack without going over some other country’s border. The choices are Turkey (Iraq then Iran), Jordan (Saudi Arabia, Iraq then Iran), Syria (Iraq then Iran) or Saudi Arabia (Direct to Iran).
Which route will Israel choose?
It will go over Syria. There would be hell to pay if Israel went over Turkey or Jordan. If the Saudis “permitted” it, the Iranians would retaliate by assassinating Saudis all over the world. So it will be Syria. This is especially true as the country is in chaos today.
Will Syria attempt to shoot down Israeli aircraft flying over its territory?
Yes, it has surface-to-air capability and it also has MiG-23 and MiG-27 fighters. The Israelis will escort their bombers over Syria with their F16s. These fighters will wipe out anything that Syria puts up. The ground-based defenses are old, and no doubt, poorly manned these days.
Is it a problem if Israeli attack bombers fly over Iraqi territory?
No one gives a shit about Iraq anymore.
What happens when the Israeli bombers get over Iranian air space?
This question has no answer. If it happens, this would be the most advertized air attack in history. The Iranians have sophisticated radar and surface to air capability they bought from China. It would be a mistake to assume that an attack can be made without losses.
How would the attack take place?
Israel will use its F15s. Each plane will be armed with a single laser-guided bunker buster bomb.It will use their F16s as escorts.
As of today, Israel “officially” has only thirty of these bunker bombs. It has a total of 100 F15 attack bombers, so it needs more bombs to fully utilize their strike capability. Look for a sign on this. If the US agrees to supply more bombs, the timing is close.
What is your guess on the outcome?
It is not possible to predict what will happen in Syria. The chaos today creates the best opportunity for Israel. Who knows what can happen in six-months? Every week Iran's defenses get stronger. This will be resolved, one way or the other, in less than six-months.
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The Arab League report which counters western spin on Syria, can be found to this link:
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=29025
There is considerable evidence that the conflict in Syria was fostered by outside intervention. French special forces were captured in Syria, Turkey has been providing training, ex-Libya fighters have turned up in Syria and the UAE is reported to be supplying weapons. Best indicator of the true state of affairs is that the Aeab states observer team (100 plus) provided a report detailing foreign intrevention. This report was "dissappeared."
Of course the IAF will transit Syria.
Iran has Muslims. They are threat to everyone on earth who does not believe in Allah.
The US is a threat to everyone on earth who does not believe in Dollah
Iran has the largest Jewish population in the ME outside of Zion
Your comments are right on about the why ( and Ron Paul ), but then that was not the point of the article, was it? Huh? You are like so many emotionally disturbed ZH commenters, you go off on tangents and look foolish and ruin the ZH space.
"you go off on tangents and look foolish and ruin the ZH space"
You insuate that this is only a website about TRADING IDEAS and that someone like me venting over another war is out of place. I suggest you have this incorrect. The name of the website is not GREATFREETRADINGIDEAS.COM, it is ZEROHEDGE.COM. Now what does ZEROHEDGE.COM encompass as a phrase or statement. I think it means, you are going to experience a collapse due to the poor Governance of your leaders. That's what I think it means. And if I have this right, then I assume I am welcome to vent about this scenario the author is pointing towards. I have traded and I appreciate that traders come here and interact, makes sense to me, but again, the site doesn't seem to be only focused on trading ideas with a name like ZEROHEDGE.COM NOW does it. Get used to the Ron Paul'ers around here, he is the man who has called out that collapse is coming and why. Maybe a site called RONCALLEDIT.COM would work too.
Emtionally disturbed is CORRECT! My economy has COLLAPSED! My Government sells me a load of shit everyday. Mr. "bring the troops home" Obama has us on a WW3 footing. You are DAMN RIGHT! I am happy for you you haven't lost it yet. When I see F-15's and attack plans and no mention of what a sham this action is and what it means TO ME and my future, yea, I loose it!
Okay Bro. I do indeed understand. There ought to be a place for ventilating, but BK was just passing on info. Also, I have found it beneficial to accept what's coming and prepare the best I can, knowing that TPTB will ultimately self-destruct. That's the nature of evil.
and the nature of good is to expose and contain it. Letting it "implode," and doing nothing more, can hurt a lot of innocent bystanders...like our children.
Give me a break! I had a conversation with a guy who knows much more than I (and most others) on an important topic.
I thought is was interesting, so I posted on it. Don't shoot the messenger.
Stop it? How?
Bruce,
The Republic of Georgia i another possibility, there are some very trange things going on there: large American and Israeli military presence. You can hear small arms (50) gunfire at all hours from the base just outside Tbilisi.
Great piece Bruce. What no one seems to be talking about is Netanyahu's antipathy toward Obama. The timing of this in relation to the US elections is no accident. Netanyahu is playing a game of chicken, not with Iran but with Obama.
"Netanyahu's antipathy towards Obama" so you still like political theater? Did you see the Euro's dive into bombing Kaddafi in a heartbeat in the middle a sovereign debt crisis? That should be your clue that what you are told has very little to do with how shit happens! These guys fight for days over finance but somehow magically agree to gang up on a sovereign, successful, essentially socialist Country in Libya. I don't beleive any of the drama about Obama and Israel anymore than I beleive Obama was elected "off the streets" of America. Add it up man.
Bruce,
You could re-write a phonebook and I'd read it. Don't ever stop.
<Stop it? How?> Bruce, perhaps by US adamantly refusing to participate. Everyone: call your elected "representatives"
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA HAR... oh hell, i just split my sides laughing again...
are you forgetting who paid for your representatives?
http://criminalstate.com/2009/07/how-the-israel-lobby-took-control-of-us...
http://www.mediamonitors.net/khodr49.html
Thanks Bruce!
Thank you Bruce for a most interesting posting.
@Bruce Krasting
Although the article may be "interesting" to some it is very much like Stratfor's war-mongering articles posted on ZH preceding the war against Libya. It assumes a war will happen and Americans can do nothing to stop Israel from using its U.S. supplied arsenal against neigboring countries.
Every person with a conscience should oppose war and stop being afraid to speak up against U.S. support of the terrorist state of Israel.
That's not the point taxpayer102, of course no one wants war, especially most on ZH, because we all know that the USA is B R O K E. The decision has already been made, Israel will hit Iran and we will get dragged into it because "god forbid" we tell fucking Israel to fight it's own war, especially in an election year. The decision has been made and we are just spectators to the big show...
Israel bombed Iraq in the 80s to stop their nuclear program
Israel bombed Syria a few years ago to stop their nuclear program.
Iran is a totally different ballgame (no doubt) but we were not dragged into anything on those two previous incidents, and I hope this time will be the same.....only time will disclose what happens next....I have no faith in Obummer and have no idea what he might do to placate jewish voters in his base....
Light all the candles on the menorah at once?
Because we discuss the "HOW" of it how it may occur does not mean that we want it to happen....Sticking your head in the sand does not prevent the event from occuring, it just means you are in the dark when it does happen...
Israel will make whatever decision Israel wants to make without regard to what you or I think. Lastly Israel is not a terrorist state because it defends itself. In all of the conflicts that Israel was involved in, it started NONE of them....
Hamas in Gaza does not recognize Israel's right to exist and fires missiles into Israel on a weekly basis. I doubt seriously that if Mexico fired as many missiles into Southern California as Hamas does into Israel that you would be clamoring for restraint...
"You may ignore reality, but you cannot ignore the consequences of reality" Ayn Rand
yeah,... bottle rockets
Bruce, I think it was a good post. But one scenario that no one seems to discuss is what if the Israelis use low yield tactical Nukes to make sure the Iranian Harden facilities are taken out? Lower weight weapon then the Bunker Busters so you extend the range of your aircraft and make sure the enemy facility is destroyed. I also believe that it has already been decided that the Israelis will go the most direct route over Saudi Arabia, the royal family has already given the green light on that. The Royal Family hates IRAN.
I doubt Israel would blow its strategic ambiguity (whatever is left at this point), and spark serious global scrutiny by wielding a nuclear device, regardless of yield, under any circumstances other than mutually assured destruction. There would be an uproar over the fact nuclear weapons were used by a non-NPT country against an NPT country, especially when the IAEA is denied access to all Israeli facilities.
Bunker busters used on Fordo, 80m, underground is plausible; but consider enrichment facilities in Tehran- they are completely off-limits to Israeli strike.
Why? Because Tehran is home to the largest jewish population in the ME outside of Israel.
Triggernometry, Your point is valid except for a few things. 1) The flight time to target and air defenses, lighter load means more time for evasion and better chance for success, especially if you are flying at low altitude, which burns up a lot more fuel. 2) There are reports that the current Bunker Busters, that can be carried by the F-15I that Israel uses, will not be able to do any meaningful damage to the harden facilities. 3) If Israel does hit Iran with tactical nukes, they have a 100 percent guarantee that the Iranian program is knocked out for maybe 10yrs or more. 4) Israel was a country that was founded on one key phrase "Never Again", and the current leadership believes in that, like it is the word of god. 5) Israel doesn't give a shit what anyone thinks if they think their very existence is under threat, and the current leadership does. 6) Using the threat of Tactical Nuke strike is a great Blackmail tactic to get the poor old USA to join in and hit Iran, because if the US doesn't then Israel will pull the Nuke trigger. 7) Everyone knows that Israel has had Nukes since the mid 60's (speculation that the French gave it to them) and know one cares. 8) I hope I am wrong on numbers 1,2,3,4,5,6.
I agree. I can't speak to technicalities of weapon systems, but I think it's fairly obvious Israel will never use nukes preemptively, for political reasons. The backlash would be immediate and profound. Probably the one thing that would spoil their American meal-ticket.
The house of saud are cryptos, fully on board with the banker cabal. Every so often a Saudi journalist gets beheaded for pointing this out.
You'd think this would be so obvious by now...
Unfortunately, obvious and oblivious only differ by one li(e)...
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/world/middleeast/us-agencies-see-no-mo...
The NYT says it's a scam! You didn't even mention any of that, whether it's moral, whether we should support it etc. If we said no, they wouldn't do it, bottomline.
It has already been decided. That is it. We are, how do you say? FUCKED.
War as a sports event. This world is gravely ill.
"The NYT says it's a scam!"
Well hell..., if the NYT says it's a scam, it must be.
ROTFLMAO!
I think the no one cares about Iraq comment was interesting. I wonder what the over / under is on civil war there?
Thanks Bruce
It's ridiculous to say that noone gives a shit about Iraq. Iraqis care very much about Iraq.
However, the sovereign nation of Iraq, with a democratically elected government, has no say over its foreign or defense policy.
What the author really means is that the US will permit overflight and it doesn't give a shit how Iraquis feel about it.
Bruce says shit like that to deflect, twist and conceal truth all the time.
All the world, and "friends of krasting" know war with iran begins and ends in an iraq proxy 12 years ago.
Those sketches are nonsense, israel wont attack iran, they have American goyim to pay for, die and gladly be the suckers for the war mongering (blame) on that.
Crazy, not stupid.
Read above. The Iraqi government has found a better place in the world for the Iraqis, being coopted by US citizen nations.
For other results, well,...
The middle east is an economic war venue.
Its business.
The iraqi government is the same as yours - financial inc.
Read Confessions of an Economic Hit Man. Nothing new here.
Interested to know what happens if Isreal get there ass handed back to them on a plate. The Thermo-nuclear option? Dec 21st? Yeah, we live in interesting times. Blows, doesn't it?
Long: Potassium Iodide
Exactly. +1.
what can we do to stop it you ask?
first, who is this "we" you speak of?
'we' the US(govt) would support it
'we the people' will be told to support it
'we' ZH readers will 'play' it (having no surface to air missiles etc)
Iran does not have a history of reckless behavior. Their recent boldness is perhaps more an indication that they "know" that they will not be hit than an indication that they will be.
As for sources and knowledgeable people, not many of them are so knowledgeable without having any practical involvement in the matter. Most of them have desired outcomes, and their words are intended to help bring about those outcomes.
Israel might not quite have the power to "allow" Iran to develop nuclear weapons or to disallow it. If Obama and Panetta are not willing to get involved, Israeli action against Iran might quickly become Israel versus Iran+China+Russia. How will that play out? If the U.S. then gets into it, how will that play out?
The biggest consequence of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is likely to be that their government and society will remain coherent and functioning for a long time to come, which would thwart some people's long-term plans for the region. Among those people are some influential Americans, but they are a faction and don't necessarily have control of the U.S. agenda, at least not for now.