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The German Economy Tanks, The ECB Throws Gasoline On The Fire, And Eurozone Bailouts Enter Phantasy Land

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Wolf Richter   www.testosteronepit.com

Slovenia joined the Eurozone in 2007, went on a borrowing binge that blind bond buyers eagerly made possible, dousing some of its two million people with riches, creating a real estate bubble that has since burst, and driving up its external debt by 110%. And in October, it may go bankrupt, admitted Prime Minister Janez Jansa. Because borrowing binges can last only so long if you can’t print your own money. The sixth Eurozone country, of seventeen, to need a bailout. But it’s just a speck, compared to Spain, which will strain the bailout funds, and Italy, which is too large to get bailed out. The other option is the European Central Bank. Its printing press—the one it is not supposed to have—could easily bail out the once blind but now seeing bondholders. As in all bailouts, workers and taxpayers would get a haircut. And in Germany, the debate itself may tear up the Eurozone—just as its economy is tanking.

New car sales in Germany had been holding up well through June—a miracle in face of the fiasco playing out in the Eurozone’s auto industry. But they caved in July; and instead of miraculously recovering in August, they caved again: down 4.7% from August 2011 and down 8.6% from July. Ominously, sales of medium-heavy and heavy trucks, a thermometer of the business investment climate, fell off a cliff: -18.8% for trucks over 12 metric tons, -15.1% for trucks over 20 tons, and -9.4% for tractors (now down 5% for the year!).

Retail sales, which had been on a roll through May, stalled in June, and skidded in July. Early indications are even worse for August: retailers’ negative sentiment worsened for the fourth month in a row. They suffered from a nasty margin squeeze, given the dual pressures of wholesale price inflation that “increased sharply,” and heavy discounting, as Germans struggle to make ends meet [read.... The “Pauperization of Europe”].

And manufacturing, the vaunted engine of the German economy, after a rout in July, was hit by another “deterioration in business conditions” in August. It recorded the fifth month in a row of job losses. And export orders plummeted at the “steepest rate since April 2009.”

Alas, 2009 brings up horrid memories. In the first quarter that year, GDP plunged 3.8% from the fourth quarter of 2008, when it had already plunged 2.1% from the third quarter. Annualized, those two quarters added up to a double-digit collapse in GDP, the worst in the history of the Federal Republic. The German economy, which lives and dies by its exports, was saved not by hard-working Germans or smart managers or a superior system, but by the drunken stimulus frenzy in the US and China. German companies and their suppliers sucked with all their might on a wide variety of programs, from green-energy boondoggles to the cash-for-clunkers fiasco.

But now, without such foreign deus ex machina, Germany’s ability to bail out the Eurozone is more than ever in doubt. So, the ECB’s latest machinations hit fertile ground when they were leaked after ECB President Mario Draghi outlined them to the European Parliament late Monday: buy up Spanish and Italian debt with maturities of up to three years—up from the six to 12 months proposed at his last press conference. It worked. Italian and Spanish yields on two-year debt dropped below 2.8%, down from over 7.5% and 6.9% respectively this summer. Central-bank market manipulation at is best. Crisis solved. In phantasy land. Until reality sets in.

Namely a rift in Germany. Chancellor Angela Merkel and a slew of other politicians support it more or less tacitly. But the Bundesbank is having conniptions; printing money to fund government deficits violates EU treaties that limit the ECB to the single mandate of price stability. It just can’t find, not even between the lines, any traces of a hidden second mandate, such as funding government deficits. Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann—”I cannot see how you can ensure the stability of a monetary union by violating its legal provisions,” he’d said last November—has hardened his attacks on bond buying programs. With broad public support in Germany. And Merkel, who wants to hang on to her job more than anything else, will tread carefully. Yet, if Germany skids into a deep export-driven recession, all bets are off.

The world is becoming “less stable,” with a “bloated” financial sector, “bankrupt governments” looking for ever more revenues, and the possibility of a “gold mania,” said Doug Casey, chairman of Casey Research. For the highly insightful interview, read.... Doug Casey’s Predictions For The New World Market.

 


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Wed, 09/05/2012 - 13:20 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Self sufficiency and small businesses that support going off grid will do well. I'd go as far as saying a machine shop in the right location would be a good investment at this time.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 11:45 | Link to Comment Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"New car sales in Germany had been holding up well through June—a miracle in face of the fiasco playing out in the Eurozone’s auto industry. But they caved in July; and instead of miraculously recovering in August, they caved again: down 4.7% from August 2011 and down 8.6% from July. Ominously, sales of medium-heavy and heavy trucks, a thermometer of the business investment climate, fell off a cliff: -18.8% for trucks over 12 metric tons, -15.1% for trucks over 20 tons, and -9.4% for tractors (now down 5% for the year!)."

Is that just a seasonal thing?  If you don't compare with previous years, we can't know.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 15:15 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Yea, that and a time machine and you are good to go.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 13:55 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

 from the ACEA

Brussels, 17/07/2012 - In June, new passenger car registrations declined by 2.8% in the EU*, continuing the downward trend commenced in October last year. In total, 1,201,578 new cars were registered in the region in the month, which counted on average the same number of working days as in June 2011. In the first semester this year, demand for new cars was down 6.8%, compared to the first half of 2011, amounting to 6,644,829 units.

June results were diverse across the EU*, leading to an overall 2.8% downturn. Looking at the major markets, Germany (+2.9%) and the UK (+3.5%) posted growth, while Spain (-12.1%) and Italy (-24.4%) contracted. The French market remained stable (-0.6%).

From January to June, Germany (+0.7%) and the UK (+2.7%), the two largest markets, performed better than in the first six months of last year. Downturn prevailed in Spain (-8.2%), France (-14.4%) and Italy (-19.7%).

German car reg Jan to June Y2012 : 1,634,401 (prov)      Y2011 : 1,622,579        Y2010 :1,468,791    Y2009 :2,059,405   Y2008 :1,633,169

Greek car reg Jan to June Y2012 : 32,429 (prov)    Y2011 :55,276       Y2010 : 98,531    Y2009 :113,950  Y2008 :158,546

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 11:20 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

This explains much.....

http://www.broadsheet.ie/2012/08/17/irelands-zombie-train/

We bought these brand new Korean DMUs just before the crash but now they are empty and a waste of capital resourses ...why ? Ireland is not a national economy....it is a conduit for the cores industrial systems.

Private car energy use (SEAI)

Y1990 : 926 KTOe

Y2007: 2,070 Ktoe (peak)

Y2011 :1,843 ktoe

A big drop but it ain't huge......

Now let us look at Road freight energy use....

Y1990 : 334 Ktoe

Y2007 :1,255 Ktoe (peak)

Y2011 :637 Ktoe......

Road freight energy use has halved.....i.e. the ability to do work (building capital etc) has been pushed out by consumer oil consumption also in the oil home heating area withen Ireland.

 

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0828/irha-hauliers-fuel.html

 

Irish oil imports Jan – June…….+ total yearly oil imports expressed in Ktoe

Y2012 : 2,709 Million Euros (latest est.)
Y2011 : 2,628 Million Euros…………………….Y2011 : 8,776 KTOE
Y2010 : 2,087 Million………………………….. Y2010 : 8,912 KTOE
Y2009 : 1,574 Million Euros (price slump)……. Y2009 : 9,019 KTOE
Y2008 : 2,545 Million Euros (collapse level ?)…..Y2008 : 10,386 KTOE
Y2007 : 1,954 Million Euros……………………..Y2007 : 10,291 KTOE
Y2006 : 1,936 Million Euros……………………..Y2006 : 10,793 KTOE
Y2005 : 1,469 Million Euros……………………..Y2005 : 11,180 KTOE
Y2004 : 972 Million Euros……………………..Y2004 : 10,184 KTOE
Y2003 : 816 Million Euros……………………..Y2003 : 10,171 KTOE
Y2002 : 757 Million Euros……………………..Y2002 : 10,476 KTOE
Y2001 : 410 Million Euros……………………..Y2001 : 10,353 KTOE
Y1998 : 303 Million Punts……………………..Y1998 : 8,886 KTOE

We typically reexport 1000 -1600KTOE of oil a year so imports do not quite accuretly express our ability to do work but you can see from these figures we are paying more for less.

 

Yearly oil primary energy supply gives a better feel for the situation in Ireland.
As I said we are paying more for less ability to do work and also we have a higher population now operating in a credit hyperinflated envoirment where the input costs are greater.
(oil)TPES(inc non energy)
TPES Y2011 : 7,101 Ktoe
TPES Y2010 : 7,690 Ktoe
TPES Y2009 : 8,006 Ktoe
TPES Y2008 : 9,243 Ktoe
TPES Y2007 : 9,139 Ktoe
TPES Y2006 : 9,305 Ktoe
TPES Y2005 : 9,586 Ktoe
TPES Y2004 : 8,931 Ktoe
TPES Y2003 : 8,304 Ktoe
TPES Y2002 : 8,719 Ktoe
TPES Y2001 : 8,607 Ktoe
TPES Y1998 : 7,278 Ktoe
TPES Y1990 : 4,422 Ktoe

The ability to print debt free money and subsidise the rail and bus system could do much to push out oil so that it could do some work rather then car consumption…i.e. build more rail & tram lines as the French are now doing..................(they know whats coming - we don't......)
But Ireland is a mere conduit , it is not a country in any real sense of the term…its one tiny cog in a gigantic satanic engine.
Ireland is by far the most interesting lab rat in my opinion given its extreme credit nature and good data sets…..I am sure the powers that be will poke & tinker with its subject to see how different dynamics work their way through the domestic systems.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 10:11 | Link to Comment dannynewmexico
dannynewmexico's picture

what about the german supreame court decision expect on 9/12?/??

 

 

survivingsurvivalism.com

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:45 | Link to Comment Diplodicus Rex
Diplodicus Rex's picture

"New car sales in Germany had been holding up well through June"

Err....I don't think so...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gms-channel-stuffing-goes-germany-europes-...

 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:08 | Link to Comment Tommy Gunner
Tommy Gunner's picture

Another great article Wolf. 

It has been clear to me that Germany is not a survivor with a superior system - they have simple been riding the coat tails of China - just as Australia has...

When the stimulus money stops - and it seems it has - the ride ends.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:29 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

"But it’s just a speck, compared to Spain, which will strain the bailout funds, and Italy, which is too large to get bailed out"

Wasn't Spain too large to bail out? Now Spain is ok to bail but Italy is too large to get bailed out? It's all Bullshit!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:43 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

behind the scenes printing, going directly to the banks, paid for by those negative interest rates and unknowing taxpayers.  look, one way or another the banks will steal their way back to solvency, they always do.  Only one rule applies now, if you can't touch "it" and physically defend "it", you don't own "it".

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:24 | Link to Comment somecallmetimmah
somecallmetimmah's picture

Excellent point.  And post-bailout, Greece is now "fixed", is it?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:03 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I don't think it ever got out of the tank to begin with. Defective motors, collapsing citizenry, aging nuclear facilities, or ya, and don't forget they live real close to the river of denile. A hop, skip and a jump, you might say.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:00 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

can't resist: "The German economy, which lives and dies by its exports...".

I always love those quips. At the end, it always sounds like this:

"Son, whatever happens, always spend more than what you make. Should you produce a surplus, or save something, remember that this is a liability".

or

"Germany is in danger because it could have a balanced or negative trade balance. Other countries are safe because they have a strong(ly) negative trade balance."

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:21 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@Ghordius

If European economies go back to being national rather then market state economies Germany is Dead DED dead.

What happens in a physical economy when you print domestic money ?

Its citizens use domestic capital to the max.......they however cannot buy external goods much.

In 1990 Ireland got on fine with 800,000 ~ cars

We now have 1.8 million of those bitches......we don't need no 1.8 million private cars.

What happens to Germany when countries such as Ireland buy 10,000 cars a year ?(we still buy 80,000~ a year despite the depression because we have a non national economy)

 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:44 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

look, countries and families function in a way that is not that unsimilar

when you are at your prime, you produce more than what you consume

when you are not in your prime, you consume more than what your produce

Ireland is exporting, Germany is exporting, and Japan is still not "dead, dead, dead" after decades of exports, as the UK or the US that are NOT having a positive trade balance since quite a long time

I hate talking about GDP, but the basics are this

GDP = private consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports), or GDP = C+I+G+(X-M)
Wed, 09/05/2012 - 12:12 | Link to Comment rwe2late
rwe2late's picture

 I find that GDP equation problematic.

Isn't much of government spending being double counted?

If the government collects Money (e.g. soc sec), and then redistributes (theoretically "spends") it back, to those who then "consume"  - isn't there a double count? Just for the government acting as a transfer pass-through in my example?

Is that really adding to GDP? Isn't that different than if the government directly purchased a good or service?

Isn't that part of the accounting nomenclature illusion of the government "spending" on social welfare, and in that instance "adding" to GDP?

Am I missing something?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:02 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

You revert to a textbook definition of GDP to [somehow] support the notion that a country can't evolve? WTF!

A country is more akin to a corporation than a family. Family members become sedentary and die, but corporations can and do reinvent themselves when a particular business model has passed its zenith. Simple examples include Apple (over decades), and the Roman Church (over centuries).

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:18 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

note I wrote "I hate talking about GDP". yes, I agree on the "reinventing themselves". good point, though it strays away from the matter, IMHO

my point with the old GDP equation is that you have to account for several factors.

Dork of Cork has this habit of talking about base money needs in an IMHO unconventional way that I often don't understand

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:52 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

GDP means almost nothing to Ireland domestically ...it goes to the Caymans or God knows where -we get a few scraps for being good boys but clearly its not sustainable.

There is a huge cost to this level of globalisation - the energy lost in translation is simply huge....people must fly to the Caymans , to Dublin , to Frankfurt (The Dublin - Frankfurt route is one of the few air routes to see a increase in business on this sorry extreme market state island) to manage their debts and tax evasion but it does not produce much.....

These "services" are registered as a GDP rise......

GDP is a dysfunctional metric. 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:58 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Germany is a Industrial pygmy.....If it became a national economy again.... its why it borrows off our accounts to sustain its sick mercantile dreams..

Its coal reserves are declining  , Nuclear elec. production went down 23% in Y2011 !! you can't replace that with solar stuff......it works for them (for the moment) by externalising the costs of Nat gas on its neighbours

It simply does not do enough effective rational domestic capital formation.....it does a little bit but is clearly not enough to reverse the entropy.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=PyDfvMyAfJ8

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:15 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"Germany is [an] industrial pygmy"

I would dispute that. Germany takes full advantage of value added by doing research and design on home soil while taking advantage of cheaper labour on foreign soil. They were among the first into China with manufacturing on Chinese soil, while still retaining intellectual property in Germany. (I was very close to those efforts).

The energy situation is a political mistake. If Germany were to mimic France and use nuclear to generate 75% of its power, the solar joke would not have been necessary. However, the [Vatican-instigated] Greens have far more influence in sensitive Germany than they do in Catholic France (where they are simply ignored...or blown up, à la Rainbow Warrior).

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:40 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

@I Dog

Look why is Europe deflating ?

Because people outside the industrial system have got claims on these extreme market states..... they get a revenue from the interest and they burn real oil outside the social systems of former countries.

What is happening to Greece and Ireland is not natural from a national economy perspective...they are not seeking to use their domestic capital to the max extent - they are not even attempting to do so.

Look no further then Greek trade balance figures -they will tell you almost everything...

Greek oil balance
jan -june
y2010 : -4,442 million euros
Y2011 :-5,591 million euros
Y2012 :-5,661 million euros
meanwhile its trade balance in goods excluding oil and ships is down down
2010 : -8,890 million euros
2011 :- 6,742
2012 : – 4,756

This is the albainisation of the Euro periphery in action…..

I see this happening in Ireland…….a guy with savings buys a 5-10 year old second hand Merc (its cheap if its a petrol model) off a broken businessman rather then a new car …..this Merc will function for anther 5 -10 years or longer as they are built like a tank….

So goods imports go down dramatically but the oil bill remains…..
Although it makes financial sense if you really need a car (little public transport) but do not drive it much.

 

In a functioning national economy under such pressure this would not happen...public transport would be reaching capacity ....what happens to Germany in such a situation ?(new car sales are still large in Ireland although in Greece they have dived even further)

If you listen to me I state as a NATIONAL ECONOMY Germany is a Pygmy as it has so few internal capital resourses to draw on - its as much a creature of globalisation as Ireland .... its monetary tactics as merely worked to externalise the losses of post 1980 malinvestment on its neighbours.

It can only continue as long as we have Quislings running the PIigs goverments which may indeed last a while yet as people seem to be a bit slow in Ireland and perhaps other countries.

 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:58 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

I understand what you are saying, Dork. My dispute is with the contention that countries can't find ways to trade their skills for resources. There are still 5 billion more people on the planet who would be happy to dig up some resources and/or assemble some products for the [over-]developed West, in return for being able to better their own existences.

Even in the "bad old days" of industrialisation in Britain, at the time that Marx was writing, only 15% of the population was directly involved in mining, manufacturing or farming. The rest were basically trading skills for the wealth/money generated by the manufacturers, miners and farmers.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 09:28 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

As long as there will be a few BPD of oil pumped in this world capital (energy really) will be superior to labour - it can simply overpower it.

Its been like this for 200 years +

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 09:25 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

Looking at Irish national accounts....

 Y2006 : National debt interest paid to

residents : 826 million

Rest of the world :990 million

 

Y2011 : national debt interest paid to

residents :1,101 million

rest of the world : 4,067 million........

 

 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 11:48 | Link to Comment monad
monad's picture

Someone profits by selling Ireland, and everyone else into debt slavery. Since the Irish - and everyone else - are at best merginal beneficiaries of these 'deals', these deals are at best marginally legitimate. They are fraudulent to the extent that the backroom deals were not disclosed. This is an argument to enslave the world, using fraudulent contracts as the instrument of execution and first weapon of enforcement. "You owe us for what *they* did" - where have I heard this before? Because the backroom deals were not disclosed, this is not binding. But if we don't voluntarily cooperate to be enslaved, they will bring out the guns. Its a trap. The political leadership has been infiltrated by cannibals and the worst wishful idiots and self serving parasites. This is WW1, Act 4. 

 

"when we see a lot of framed timbers, different portions of which we know have been gotten out at different times and places, and by different workmen... and when we see those timbers jointed together, and see they exactly make the frame of a house or a mill... in such a case we find it impossible not to believe that... all understood one another from the beginning, and all worked upon a common plan, drawn up before the first blow was struck."

Abraham Lincoln

 

"When through process of law, the common people have lost their homes, they will be more tractable and more easily governed through the influence of the strong arm of Government, applied by the general power of wealth under control of leading financiers."

The Banker's Manifesto of 1892

 

 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:23 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

I would dispute that too, and I'm very new to this concept that the Greens are Vatican-instigated.

/sarc on/ I did not authorize any instigation of the Greens /sarc off/smile, wink, wink, I-heart-i-dog-shirt

i-dog, do you have a list of movements that are 100% non-Vatican-infiltrated/instigated/controlled?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:33 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"a list of movements that are 100% non-Vatican infiltrated/instigated/controlled"

i-dog
Joyful
Falak (probably)
<end of list>

In the case of the Greens, my research points to most of the guiding lights to have Khazarian backgrounds or affiliations.

Do you have a list of those that haven't been infiltrated yet? The NWO is now quite pervasive, at this very late stage....

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 09:34 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

I'm honoured. So i'll waffle on about it. To put actions in accordance with thoughts : 

I'm writing a book on the Renaissance, where the illegitimate son of Michael Angelo; (my invention); is a witness to the intricate goings and comings of the Renaissance age; when the universal church died and the king of France cried from his prison in MAdrid to Soleiman the MAgnificent in Istanbul : "Come help me shear this holy roman emperor and I will build a two hundred year alliance with you to change the face of Mediterranean history and send the Catholic church and its dirty minions including this Hapsburg upstart back to the dusbin of history." What an about turn from the symbolic son of Saint Louis! 

And they partailly did it; after much blood and guts; like in any good historical novel or Holywood film! 

Richelieu closed that chapter of papal decay by the treaty of Westphalie (Mazarin his successor finished his grand design for him), which made Catholicism on equal footing with the Reform all over Europe, and announced the age of nation-state; just like Henry IV of France started that trend with his Edit of Nantes; Henry VIII of England having already cut his umbilical chord  to Rome with Thomas More's beheadal.  

The only inflitration I avow to is to Socratic thought, Voltaire's mordant words and the Chardonnay's spell of gently acidulated effervescence.

Ain't history a glass of good bubbly!  As it meanders like that first scene in Spielberg's masterpiece : Saving Private Ryan. 

Not that the zh forum is the best place to sing it! But that's another story.

I'm into mine like a worm into the fresh green grass covered in morning dew. I see it every day when the birds come to eat their breakfast.

Here's to the company of rationalists with a zest of romantic idealism tinged with holistic mysticism of the universal theme; devoid of all reference to the bearded Umpire of Abrahamic origin.

Viva Venus. The first wine of the Midi was called Veneria in her honour, it was the motto of the Xth legion settled in the Narbonnais that was Caesar's favorite during his gallic adventure.

Good traditions never die!

Like the i-dog tradition to see a conspiracy behind every Dorian pillar, a societal portrait of Dorian Gray painted by the conniving Papal church! 

Cheers! 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 12:26 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

cheers, falak, and all the best for your book

Viva Venus Victrix! The household goddess and Genetrix of the Caesars, the beatiful, spoiled, powerful, capricious and cruel Venus of the Conquests,, Ishtar the eight-pointed Morning Star, who gives Fortuna Virilis to her followers, according to her divine whims. Men have to be virile and impossibly daring if they want her attention.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:12 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

Ghordius, you're descending into gibberish!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:19 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

then please explain to me the phrase"...lives and dies by its exports...". By logic, if Germany does not export, it...? Compared to...?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:35 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

Germany (like other countries with limited natural resources) of course lives and dies by its exports.

But then you, insincerely, equate those self-evident words with this gibberish: "always spend more than what you make" ... and compound that by calling savings "a liability". (Was that, perhaps, a freudian slip with your Vatican banker hat on?)

In your next para you, again insincerely, imply that Wolfie claimed, or inferred, that other countries with negative trade balances are safe. More gibberish!

Clear now?

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:08 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

btw I noticed only now that you threw in the "countries with limited natural resources", which is an argument, though not necessarily for a positive trade balance, only for exports against imports of resources. Wolfie is not clear on this, and if this is his argument, then I honestly again don't understand WTF he is trying to say.

meanwhile, though, you throw in a "gibberish" and a "Vatican banker hat" in the fray.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:25 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

To use your analogue of a country and a family in an accurate context: A country, like a family, cannot survive for long by adding to borrowings each and every year. Someone eventually has to go out and trade their skills or resources to earn an income!

Just as a family cannot continue to survive by spending more than it earns, year after year, neither can a country. Only in the current global fiat bubble can countries continue to add debt (against their full faith and credit [sic]) for 60 years in a row!!!!!!! Even Keynes would roll in his grave at that!

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:30 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

finally something on which we agree. and I think we agree too that all this depends on "for long", i.e. how long is "too long".

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 08:49 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

 

"how long is "too long""

In a world of free markets and free trade and honest money, it would simply depend on how long the creditors chose to live without their capital being available for other more productive investments ... though there is also an upper limit that is set by debt service ability (agreed capital repayments, plus interest).

In past centuries, countries could bypass the above limits by resorting to violence (beat up the creditors). In this new age of M.A.D. and asymetric warfare, that is unlikely to be a solution into the future (after ZATO has been disarmed, that is).

However, this discussion will become academic if the NWO succeeds in imposing a global currency controlled by a global Politburo.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:58 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

so it's cultural? when Wolfie (who has only a German name) says "DIES" it's just an AngloSphere-accepted hyperbolic statement that does not mean anything, really? Meanwhile my habit of trying to lay out the arguments in details is a deadly sin of "straw man" usage?

I react to the statement "lives and dies by it's exports" with "bullshit, have a look at countries that import since decades".

You seem to me to react to some honest trials to understand something with "straw-man!! and insincere!!"? (<-YES, this might count as a straw-man. It's the way I learned to debate in a honest-try-to-find-what-the-fuck-is-really-happening-way. By repeating, particularly if unsure, with your own words and methods, the same way as you do during military service when you repeat what you understood about the task given to you.)

No. I honestly don't understand. Still not clear to me, except that it might be a language/cultural thing.

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 03:46 | Link to Comment noses
noses's picture

I just went to Phantasy Land (http://www.phantasialand.de/en/home) and asked at all the entrances. Nobody has seen any Eurozone bailouts trying to enter. But none have left either so they still might be stuck in "Deep In Africa".

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 06:48 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

I saw one in the town fair this morning, holding up a sign "Dollars wanted".

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Thanks for the facts and figures as ever Wolfy

so Germany gets a sniffle and the rest of Europe catches hepatitis B

Gotcha

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 00:09 | Link to Comment ClassicCommodity
ClassicCommodity's picture

Im loading up on tradition as we speak.

Tue, 09/04/2012 - 22:34 | Link to Comment diogeneslaertius
diogeneslaertius's picture

Empire eUrope

what tyrants, kings, and monarchs failed to do for millennia through that very internecine conflict which bade our forefathers depart airstrip one, was achieved in a handful of decades by a relatively small number of bankers, bureaucrats, and paid media hitmen via fraud/deception.

one might almost marvel at this feat if not for the inhumanity of it. indeed, these are not men at all but some kind of wicked animals; bloodthirsty, unable to ever feel safe or comfortable unless in Total Control (only then will sleep come... and to something not at all like some human intelligence, but just mean, base, and utter cunning -something human, all too human).

there is Nothing wrong with the Real Economy.
the GEC is Engineered.

the cows didnt all die, we didnt run out of hydrocarbons, the world is full of people with viable skill sets.

but the geopolitical unrest is part of the meme as well - what the enemy does not want, the one chink in this dragon's armor or infinimoney scales, upon every one of which is a glittering Thou Shalt, is a large percentage of the earth's population Well-Aware of the crime and oriented towards history and Liberty/Individual Sovereignty.

again, creating a soil that is hostile to the weed of tyranny and etc.

its not like you are gonna take down NORTHCOM with a shotgun, look at the geopolitical envelope for the last three decades as the US/NATO et al. has been used as a pitbull to do mop up in choice target regions, ripe for exploitation, most recently Libya and etc. the tension is created ordo ab chao, the debt is created, the austerity, it is one giant ecosystem of economic rape. fomented false revolutions catalyzed by austerity and then mopped up by the MIC - all very good for the bottom line.

 - and now that the west has essentially outlived its usefulness the production cycle has been shifted elsewhere (the cycle will be shorter and the revolutionary tensions more immediate), the bad PR of being the pitbull will have the world cheering on the fall of the west, even as the mopping up in the Middle East etc. continues - China plays the US in the 40's-50's

So Germany is now Spain ;D and the entire lie created via the humble ECSC beginnings comes to light as being a total ponzi scheme akin to the FRS etc. constructed for the sake of a political idea whose only real purpose is to wrest control from free peoples (EUROPEANS TAKE BACK YOUR SOVEREIGN CURRENCIES!)

whatever, i wrote it, itd be a shame not to post it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHkKSpdi_QA

james vanderbeek, my nigga!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwnJw-eyacA

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 09:54 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

return to the age of enlightenment without the Jacobins, the Hanoverians, the Hapsburgs, the Romanovs.

Make Benjamin Franklin Princeps of Europe and ensure that Jeffersonian logic rules the world, without empires, just small autonomous states part of a confederacy.

Nice Utopia. Why oh why didn't history go that way? 

Ask Alexander, the first empire builder in Europe. He started that trend!

Logic of Power and logic of reason. Its a bitch, but power always checkmates reason; until it corrupts! 

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 07:51 | Link to Comment i-dog
i-dog's picture

+1. Excellent rant. Particularly:

"the entire lie created via the humble ECSC beginnings ...... constructed for the sake of a political idea whose only real purpose is to wrest control from free peoples"

Wed, 09/05/2012 - 11:37 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

Bravo. And  may I add:

Unless this is stopped, they will geo-catalog every building, every tree, every bush, every shrub, doghouse and birdbath and put it in their control under a law or regulation, complete with supervision, taxes and fees.. all in the name of a sustainable environment.

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