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Eating Humble Pie
For months I’ve predicted we wouldn’t see QE 3. It’s now clear I was wrong. The Fed just announced QE 3. And while the implications of this will not be positive for the cost of living in the US, or ultimately the markets (inflation will eat away profit margins), the fact of the matter is that on this forecast I was totally and completely wrong.
With that in mind, I’m openly admitting that this call was 100% incorrect. Ditto for my predictions of the ECB’s moves. The ECB’s actions are of questionable value. However, the fact remains that the ECB is monetizing bonds or will at least try to (unless Germany stops them). So I was 100% wrong there too.
I gain nothing from pretending that I’m right when I’m not. And while I hate being wrong, I’m not going to ignore this fact and try to simply move on as though none of this has happened.
So I was wrong on these calls. Everyone’s wrong at some point. Right now, it’s my turn. And I’m admitting it in public, because I pride myself on being honest and upfront about my mistakes as an analyst.
So, with that out of the way, it’s time to re-assess where the markets are heading and what’s going on. I’ll have an email to all of you on this tomorrow.
Until then…
Graham Summers
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Graham, not only were you 100% wrong but you were so in a horribly arrogant and condescending manner. There's no place for that bullshit.
now that the euro is so precious due to
fed easing the next leg is euro easing and
etc... pms .... charting the fiat demise.
in time
one train, one track in one direction.
.
Jethro Tull - Locomotive Breath
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=74CoUONXjP4
.
.." old charlie stole the handle, no way to
slow down.." .. i.a.
You guys who congratulate Grahmn for being humble make me laugh! I'll respect Grahm when he refunds subscriber fees instead of just saying he was wrong. He's been a Chicken Little scam artist for YEARS now. Making money off all the sheeple he has scared.
He really should be working for Martin Weiss and that gang of Chicken Little scam artists. He would fit right in.
I am still extremely dissapointed in ZH for promoting this guy who never has an original idea in years but brags he is a genius.
I assume one of the 10 Tyler Durden's must be a distant relative so that is why ZH headlines him when there are an incredible number of really good truth writers that could fill the space this clown takes up on what used to be a quality website.
Your problem, Graham, is you think from a reasonable perspective. No one can be expected to predict the actions of the schizophrenic among us. I appreciate your articles.
It is clear that Bernanke's goal is to suck the life out of this country. I'm so angry right now that I have to walk away for a while.
Prepare folks, prepare ...
Graham,
I did not listen to you anyway. I kept my gold and silver and added some waaaay out of the money call options on SLW, which have done very nicely. It does suck to be wrong, I have been wrong and it has cost me $, but it is especially painful when it is in a critical period such as this.
Consider silver.
You "gain nothing from pretending you're right when you're not". Graham what a thing to say. Everybody respecting you for admitting you're wrong ...lol...how much bigger a douche would you have looked if you hadn't? If I sent you any newsletter subscriptionmonies please send them back.
Have a nice retirement. Ciao.
QE could also be another signal from Elites to elites that a new phase of their plan is commencing. But the biggest worry is another false flag, and this world cartel loves to advertise their dirty deeds, both before and after. In a New Red Dawn movie set to hit theaters in Nov, the trailer shows a quick visual flash of Seattle going up in smoke. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGoe7BdGdlg&feature=player_embedded
So, I'm thinking Seattle might be one of their next 9/11-Style targets, only this time a dirty bomb or something. Then there is Leonard Cohen's song "First We take Manhattan" which the wording is rather bizaar and symbolic oriented....made in 1988. After Manhattan they are going "to take Berlin". Some of this may actually have to do with vengence. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlpOvaKawvc
So, Seattle and Berlin could be two cities these self-chosen ones could target. (I hope not, since I have family in and around Seattle). But I already noticed one of the Shill-operatives that comments on this site was demonizing Merkel as Europe's Dictator. I hardly think it is all about Merkel; she is but one politician puppet in a lengthy line.
As you eat humble pie on your blogs dont forget to eat the tumble pie on the investments, I will not argue which pie came first though :-)
Good for you, I appreciate it when people can stand up and admit a mistake - not many analysts and newsletter writers will do what you've done here.
Thanks Graham -I wish you were right. You should be right-but not in Bizarro bankster world. The laws of economics are gone. We are no longer a free market capitallist nation. The old rules don't apply. We are a fascist nation, run by crooks who are globalists and who care not for the American people. At least Mussolini and Hitler loved their own people -these fascists in charge here want to make us all slaves - a return to feudalsim.
Things are real bad in the U.S. but they've been able to cover it up pretty good so far. This latest QE shows us that Obama is struggling to keep the facade going long enough to keep his post. He knows there are still enough dupes out there that will vote for him as long as he keeps the illusions going. I just can't wait until after the election to see what these psychos have in store for all of us. Merry Christmas!
hey graham old man like I done told ya in my email YOU JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND THE COMMUNIST MIND SO STFU!!!!!!!!!!!!
Respect to Graham for this. All credit to someone who will admit when they're wrong.
All things aside. I respect when someone admits they were wrong. It's not something that's easy to do.
The underlying problem is the inability to ascertain the level of human depravity. It is difficult to believe the magnitude of criminality in others when one doesn't see the potential of the same in oneself.
condensed-Graham is naive.
"And while I hate being wrong, I’m not going to ignore this fact and try to simply move on as though none of this has happened."
Extend and pretend? So how many more predictions must we muddle through before you leave?
Graham,
When you read the comments here, you woudl think that Bernanke is a congenital idiot. But the comments are juvenile; Mr Bernanke is most defintiely NOT stupid. AND, he knows lots of things we don't.
This site tries to unravel undoctored unemployment numbers. Ben doesn't have to, he reads the real numbers, and knows how bad things are. He knows what's going in the EU as well. I can't tell if the Eurocrats are truly morons or just playing brinksmanship games, or really are Totalitarian Communo-Fascists (whatever that is). Ben knows whether the Germans will stay or leave. Of course, he'd never tell us, or even the rest of the government.
Don't get wrong. I don't agree with pouring money on the most undeserving parasites the world has ever seen. But I don't think he's stupid or uninformed, just corrupt.
So don't feel bad, he's acting now for a variety of reasons you couldn't possibly incorporate into your thinking, because you can't know them. That's one reason you need to be conservative in trying to preserve some vestige of wealth through this disaster, you can't game this one.
Its ok, laddie, I didn't believe you anyway. The republicans contained ron paul and the fed has a free hand:)
WOW this is a world first. I have never ever seen someone admit they were wrong. Usually they try to shift and rationalise and move the goal posts. Even Peter Schiff didn't get his penny from Arthur Laffer LOL. I think Graham would have paid it had he made such a bet :)
I ate humble pie once. It was good.
She really needed to work on her self esteem though.
You have to respect a man who publicly eats his crow "chicken-fried" and smothered in white country gravy.
Did Graham finally leave the Ostrich camp in disgust and join the Chicken Little camp?
Graham, I could have told you in my nine page newsletter that QE3 was coming...and it's free!
I am not sure yet, you were incorrect, yet.
If the Fed buys MBS from Fannie and Freddie only, that is not QE at all.
The fresh money would not go into the private market.
It is still to be determined.
Doesn't go into the private market...Huh? So where does it go, money heaven?
well at least you mention the wrong calls instead of pretending they didn't happen. my main issue is that even iof you are right long term, I have made great profits on this rally with vgk and ezu. you gotta at least mention good entry points and not be so bearish all the time. the markets don't seem or won't move directly staight down anymore since lehman and all oof walls treet being short. the up move now is clearly short covering, but who knows when that will end.
Hey Graham....you own up to your mistakes....got nothing but props for you. Your only mistake was not seeing how desperate the entire world....as well as Ben Bernanke, Wall Street and our Government.... is to keep the bubble inflated and not sink into the the deflationary depression we...particularly in the U.S. were heading into back in 2000....much less now.
The deflationary abyss these guys see must give them nightmares everynight.....knowing the 500 Trillion to 1 Quadrillion dollars of CDS could blow up at any moment and plunge the world into a new Dark Age. However, they will only cause us to go into the abyss on fire with the flames of Hyperinflation before it is all said and done.
Leaving out any Black Swans between now and then....I see the whole end game at around 2020 give or take a couple of years.....as I said.....leaving out the possibility of any Black Swans.
Throw B.S.'s into the mix.....could be anytime between now and 2020.
Once again....appreciate the apology. We all make mistakes.....and many of us still don;t understand the insanity and fear that grips these Master's Of The Univerese and the shitstorm they have produced and what lengths they will go to to keep it all from going south.....which it all will anway.
This reminds me of the racetrack. I study the races daily from almost every track and yet get beat by people picking names or numbers. I do not study the Fed and I bet that they were going to QE and I knew it would be to infinity. Knowing too much information only gets in the way. Study long , end up wrong .......
Graham your mistake is that you are trying to think logically through this mess. You fail to enter what corrupt desperate people will do to preserve the system into your calculations. TPTB don't care about who is in the white house...they own both sides,therefore the affect of qe on the elections means nothing. Secondly they had cover provided for them with the CIA stirring up shit in the middle east. What better villain than a flag burning Muslim to blame high gas prices on. Top that off with a drought to blame food prices on then you have another villain to put the blame on. All this provided the cover they needed to print as much as they want when they want.
Now it's time to sit back and watch it all blow up.
It’s a little hard to predict that the people in charge of the economy would destroy it and at the same time destroy their credibility and the political class that they have purchased and are manipulating. It’s hard to imagine that they would be doing this in that it is a knife into America’s heart.
And what’s more, all the while the jolly hangers-on just keep skipping along on the way to the funeral. It’s disgusting to see them.
Too bad, PC, that you were using common sense.
Your post today, If You Have Any Interest in Preserving Your Wealth, You Need to Use This Rally to Prepare, was spot on. Thanks.
How many innocents, to their regret, have been fooled by the desperation of initially missing out on a “bubble” only to give in and invest at the top of the widely accepted bubble euphoria, all economic traps deliberately set by Bernanke and Greenspan – the tech bubble of 2000, the 2008 commodities bubble, the 2007 housing market crash, all the way into the height that began the financial crisis of 2008…
And now, while the global economy is being zapped by ZIRP, the market shills once again are playing on the desperation of those trapped in low interest rates to draw them into the stock market right at the height of the euphoria. And once again, these innocents will be left holding the proverbial deflated balloon.
I remember Ken Harney in his nationally syndicated real estate column at the top of the real estate boom shamefully hyping houses to young and old alike and, then, when the bubble started to leak air urging more people to buy a house, any house, and then thanking them for “helping out the economy.”
Where is Ken now that they've lost their shirts and their houses?
There’s no way to describe what the Fed governors did today except desperation. Faced with the incredible insolvency that it has created, not only is the Fed using up the country’s value, it has used up its moral position.
The bankers have selected themselves over America. And, now, the Fed can’t hold their position.
The Fed is beyond government now. It’s an election year and the work force is declining and the Fed has panicked; the telling figure is how many people have disappeared from the work force. It is tragic.
Bernanke’s actions today are intended to keep the incumbents in the Congress in order to hold the bankers’ status quo. A fake market gives big investors time to run their stocks up before the final coup.
The Fed’s main worry now is the nation’s growing instability; the longer the Fed denies economic reality and keeps beating the same horse, the greater the market pendulum is going to swing back.
Go stuff yourself mate, you waited until it was too late.
Just a note to everone....when Graham throws in the towel we might have hit a top...just saying
You know it's coming...close your eyes... YOUR A FUCKING DOUCHEBAG...
There
well done Graham
...looking forward to 'Plan B' tomorrow ...you have got one ready?
NOW GO GET YOUR SHINE BOX! (just bustin' your balls Graham)
Graham deserves my respect for admitting he's been wrong!
There are far worse and far more dangerous quacks out there who still get praised/paid for spreading nonsense and who have absolutely no downside risk whatsoever.
Silly humans
I did not know ,what the fed would do,So I did not say which way it would go.The fed does not change my mind on whats really up.
Graham you made a mistake you admitted it,well done.
Graham just think about the hyperinflation that has occured over the years with pinball games, when they first came out your final score would be like 250. Now a days you score like 12 billion with one ball. And the games are still there! With even more flashing lights and bedalzzlement!
If your portfolio isn't positioned for both deflation and inflation, if you're betting the farm on one or the other, you might as well just go to Vegas & put it all on red or black. At least it's all over a helluva lot quicker that way.
Being a good person is more important than being a good analyst.
It's not that you made the "wrong calls." Your entire foundation for analysis was totally incorrect. So you are a bad analyst.
Seriously, it's more important that you are a good person though. I mean that without sarcasm. And I also am serious that you should not be trusted to make calls on the market. I harbor no bad feelings toward you as a person.
>> Being a good person is more important than being a good analyst.
but he want money for his stinking "analysis".
I can't help but notice you're still putting some faith in the Germans. You can apologize for that later. We'll still be here. Judging you.
Hey Graham,
I for one enjoy reading your posts because they are well written. You can't be right 100% of the time, and it's possbile to be completely wrong as well. Bravo for admitting it, something our Complainer in Chief will never do - take responsibility.
Your analysis might have been off (who the hell expected QEn to be announced today?) but the outcome will be the same. Dollar destruction, inflation.
Back to the American Idol president election.
Respect for admitting a mistake. It makes 0 sense to do QE at this point in time... QE1 was justifiable since the financial system was about to implode (it will anyway, but being a central banker means getting paid to do everything you can to keep the system alive). QE2 made no sense, this was approved only due to the fact that all (in periods of balance sheet recession useless) FED models pointed to another economic collapse that was never about to happen as long as the government runs a 8-10% deficit. QE3 at this moment and in these circumstances is an act of pure desparation/being clueless.... QE has no impact/relation to any economic statistic, it only influences asset prices and asset prices gave no single hint for QE (rates all time low, equities all time high, inflation + expectations decently positive). The only way to forecast QE today was to know that it would come by someone telling it to you... (see Hilsenrath). It is time the american public steps up and stop the man who is killing their living standards while keeping the wall street casino alive.
shhhiiiiit - keep up your opinions. I read them and try to fit them into this messed up jig saw puzzle that is going on before us all. I read your perspective and many others.
We're all in a heap o' trouble!
Indeed in my ignorant youth I thought that wall was imminently close in 1987, and 1991, and 1994, and and 1998, and 2000, and 2004 and 2007. But in fact, none were "the wall". At this stage I doubt the existence of "the wall" - not because I think monetary and fiscal affairs are run as they should be run, but because of man's infinite adaptability and ability to find a way to put off until tomorrow (or the next day) what one (or more likely one's wife) would argue, should have been done yesterday....
For those betting on the demise of the system and a return to barter any time soon...good luck to ya'!
Ummmm pardon me? I seem to have wandered out of the web site I was in. Could you direct me back to the "zero hedge" site?
PM (physical) is a hedge.
Cash is a hedge.
Trade goods is a hedge.
The more and wider variety of options you have, the greater your chances that you'll have the right one.
Well, it will work until it doesn't.
Your time frame is too short at 20 years (87-2007). Bretton-Woods lasted more than that. So did the system before. But they did fail.
Graham,
I was wrong too on the Fed's move, and I believe many were but wont admit. I sold my 2X leveraged position on AG yesterday morming. Bad move while in retrospect, i still think it was a good decision in the circumstances.
That being said, I appreciate people who are humble enough to admit their mistakes. Shows your quality. And I don't think we can say yet if you were wrong or not about the ECB. Let's see.
Keep writing, we always need different POVs.
"...but you still need to subscribe to my newsletter."
Can we finally drop this clown once-and-for-all? Please, Tylers?
Seriously.
Thank you, now i hope you learn from this!