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Eating Humble Pie
For months I’ve predicted we wouldn’t see QE 3. It’s now clear I was wrong. The Fed just announced QE 3. And while the implications of this will not be positive for the cost of living in the US, or ultimately the markets (inflation will eat away profit margins), the fact of the matter is that on this forecast I was totally and completely wrong.
With that in mind, I’m openly admitting that this call was 100% incorrect. Ditto for my predictions of the ECB’s moves. The ECB’s actions are of questionable value. However, the fact remains that the ECB is monetizing bonds or will at least try to (unless Germany stops them). So I was 100% wrong there too.
I gain nothing from pretending that I’m right when I’m not. And while I hate being wrong, I’m not going to ignore this fact and try to simply move on as though none of this has happened.
So I was wrong on these calls. Everyone’s wrong at some point. Right now, it’s my turn. And I’m admitting it in public, because I pride myself on being honest and upfront about my mistakes as an analyst.
So, with that out of the way, it’s time to re-assess where the markets are heading and what’s going on. I’ll have an email to all of you on this tomorrow.
Until then…
Graham Summers
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appreciate it, Graham.
it looks like all you had to do was see what gold and silver were telling us these past 3 weeks.
Graham, you weren't wrong. The Fed didn't announce QE3, it announced QE to infinity. Per ZH analysis and others like Jim Sinclair who called it we are now on the road to permanent dollar debasement. In that environment anyone who is not buying commodities, especially precious metals, is just kidding themselves. If the value of your paper asset, be it stock or bond, is based on the value of the dollar, you are screwed. There is only one strategy now, accumulate physical PMs, canned goods, and ammo. You'll need the former until the FBI comes to take it away and the latter to shoot it out with them when they do.
Things are apparently much worse than anyone will publicly admit. It can be difficult to make calls without the information the Fed (and a select few others) posesses.
Did you ever get the $16T memo?
Now get back to work!
oh lordie....my prognostications are on par with grahams......................im only thankful that it was just a turkey sandwich for me....................................
I wish it only cost you a turkey sandwich. The cost of this to all of us is going to be much higher.
Repeat after me:
They will print, print, and then print some more.
Did I mention they will PRINT? It's (snap) 'just that easy'.
Well played, for a guru.
Thanks Graham. Your analyses are appreciated, and accurate for the most part. You do however, seem to consistently underestimate how determined CBs are to maintain supremacy.
My only other point of critique would be to lighten up on "indeed".
Keep writing man!
graham - i always knew that the fed would print. thats all they can do and they could care less about what happens to the common man. i think your belief that they wouldnt print is based on the fact that you still trust our leaders to do the right thing. i dont want to say you are turning a blind eye but people need to wake up and question their leaders real motivations. it isnt anti-american to question wash dc and corp america.
Graham, give me a slice of this pie. I also didn't expect FED launching a new QE program without a crash. Perhaps they preparing for EU uncertainties?
Whatever, this is good lesson to remind us of what fundamental analysis is all about. Usually one can be right on the long term, but it's akin to gambling for timing.
QE has nothing to do with markets alp.
It is the system that they are trying to save, debt defaulting eats away the system itself, which is built upon debt.
However, by creating more and more base money, eventually they will destroy the currency, which also destroys the system.
But that way, the debtors get saved too by the currency collapse. But savers get wiped out.
Hence, the ONLY protection is physical gold in your own hands, nothing paper, no stocks, nothing else will protect you.
Good luck.
Confession is good for the soul. It leads to humility and avoids arrogance. Those two factors are essential for investing analysis and decisions, I believe.
Anyone know what Kyle Bass was saying. He is my favorite guru.
Kyle Bass ... losing millions every month as yet another guy sucked into betting Japan will blow up real quick ...
When the crazy game in Japan might still float out to 2017-2020 or so ... 30 years after their crash
Too bad for Kyle. In one video he once said that you can be right but timing is still crucial. You are up against governments, central banks and powerful interests in the investing world.
I still think he's one of the smartest around. I like his no nonsense style.
Maybe ZH needs to change to a positive website. Yeah for Bernanke and his wonderful economic decisions.
Would sure help in the stock market.
the problem is Bernanke is never right
QE is not a sign of his success, it's a sign this political-banking era is falling apart at the seams
Good on ya. I didn't follow any of your advice and I was still wrong
Well, it's not so much that you were wrong.
It's that you have/had the same information available to stackers/wingnuts/tinfoilhatters/teabaggers/ etc.etc.etc... ME
and I didn't make the same mistake you did,
didn't charge for my wrong advice, didn't cost other people money and wouldn't expect those that got screwed because of wrong advice to call it being stand up and not, STUPID. So
Now what's your advice? Just asking, I've already made my decision based on a $1 bill, a silver dollar and how many baby ruths would a $1 bill buy in 1973 and how many will the silver dollar buy today. I know, I'm simple.
Graham, you just thought they were smarter and more honest than it turns out they were.
You believed there was a limit to their activities.
There is a limit, but it won't be one they impose on themselves. It's called the wall.
They won't stop until it stops them.
Failing to understand that was the root of your error.
It is also the great tragedy of our times.
Graham, you were wrong. And you gave reasons. Your reasoning was faulty. You need examine your basic assumptions, not just the ones that led you to wrongly believe no more QE, but all your assumptions.
He may have just underestimated the hubris & insanity of the kleptocracy.
That nailed it !!!! Well said.
It may seem trite to some, but given how rare this sort of unvarnished admission is, Graham deserves praise.
On the other hand, I'll never believe another prediction he puts forward.
Actually, if you believe in reversion to the mean (and I do) I'm now more inclined to believe him in the future. (There is no such thing as a "hot streak")
Quick quiz: If I toss a fair coin 6 times and get heads six times in the row should i bet on heads or tails on the next toss? If you answer both are equally likely you both understand randomness and mean reversion (with a large number flips a roughly equal number of tails and heads will be observed, though sequences of even ten heads tails in a row will be quite common in a million flips).
We're all fooled by randomness and thus predictions about the future are fairly useless whether they turn out right or wrong-its just luck either way. Hard to admit you're worng though so congrats to Graham. I will be more inclined to read his thoughts in the future as a result.
Calling oneself out before someone else calls them out does not deserve praise except to say it's an awesome marketing move. Nothing personal, Graham. I just hate all the self-promotion that goes on around here.
Gee Graham- I've never been wrong- thought I was wrong once, but I was wrong!! LOL
Thank you
Fair play to you.
Calm down, its not as if anyone was listening to you...
My reaction, exactly. His major mistake is taking himself seriously enough to listen to himself in the first place. He has a very poor understanding of markets.
green for the giggle
Takes a big person to admit they were wrong Graham Best Wishes
Does it take a big person?
What about Graham's Gains Pains & Capital email he sent out this morning, after the Fed announced more QE, which touted his 72 straight winners. While shortly thereafter, he sent out an alert to close all positions, including a huge loss on some puts. A position that was well into the red when he was touting his winners. In my opinion, Graham is just another in the long line of snake oil salesmen in the financial subscription service business.
Facts are always welcome; you did your research and published the results; I never doubted for a moment that Graham was just one in a long line of snake oil salesmen.
Yep, all he lacks is a development in the desert of Argentina to tout and he will have made the big league.
Agreed....now when will Jim BOOOYAHHH Cramer ever admit when he is wrong?
Not only Cramer, but on ZeroHedge Mark 'jack in the box' Grant was as wrong as Graham and he just tried to fluff it today with more pompous pontificating, plus 'ahh ... err ... it's not gonna work like they thought ... uhh ... yeah, that's what I meant'
And then there's Eurocalypse Reggie Middleton too ... another Euro-Doomster ... who also thought Apple was in trouble less than halfway up to where it is now
Not sure Graham said it clear enough
Should be more like 'I was REALLY F*CKING WRONG! ... for like F*CKING MONTHS now!'
Cramer is never wrong, he is giving advice "contrary" to his actions. To him, shearing sheep is doing the work of the Lord.
cramer has little man syndrome whats he 5-2?
I'll pull him out of my pocket and ask him.
Sometime after Jon Nadler.
It's different for Nadler as he's a disinformation specialist - he's actually paid to be wrong all the time, to instill doubt in the minds of those not fully convinced of the path we're on.
Thank you sir,
Believe it or not I do appreciate it.
And I don't even want to think about Europe. Think I'll start writing childrens books.......................
Poor Graham, wrong about QE, constantly wrong about the Euro.
Have you thought about trying farming, or bricklaying?
I stopped reading your garbage a long time ago.
For penance, we will accept 75% off your services for the next 24 hours.
So, 75% off of service that made your basis, negative, is how much ahead, in the future?
GS- I would be getting fat on that stuff, but they cut the corn syrup out of it.
I sure hope Bernanke doesn't ever suffer the same fate as one American Ambassador to Libya.
You typed that with a straight face?