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CBO on Electric Cars - Don't Buy Them!

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) did a good job of shredding the electric car industry and the government's role in its evolution with this report (Link):

 

 

I'm not knocking electric cars, I'm knocking DC's role in this industry. Washington has provided the loot necessary for research on battery design, it has committed to up to $25Bn of soft loans to the auto industry and it is subsidizing every electric car that is sold. Without the massive support from our "rich" Uncle Sam there would be no electric car industry in the USA. The question is, "Is this money well spent?"

The government's role with electric cars goes back to the 2009 emergency spending program ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act):

ARRA provided $2 billion in funding to the Department of Energy (DOE) for grants under that program. Of that amount, $1.5 billion was awarded to battery producers, intermediate suppliers for those producers, and recyclers of vehicle batteries; the other $500 million was awarded to manufacturers of components for electric vehicles and intermediate suppliers of that manufacturing.

 

DOE’s Transportation Electrification Initiative has made commitments for $400 million in grants for demonstration, deployment, and education projects involving electric vehicles. (Party Time!)

I think it's important to note that the original objective of supporting electric car production was that it was a plain old economic stimulus. This was dropping money from a helicopter in the hope that it (and all the other money) would stabilize a rapidly declining economy. Another motivation for the federal investment/subsidy was that it created a back-door support package for the auto industry that was falling off a cliff back then.

Washington also agreed to provide $25Bn in cheap loans to the companies who make electric cars. So far, $8.4Bn has been committed. The rest of the money will be doled out before 2019. The money is being lent by the Federal Financing Bank (FFB). Because the loans are guaranteed by DOE, there is no risk of repayment to FFB. As a result, the loans are excluded from the calculation of the debt limit. The 25 'large' is all "off balance sheet". A very neat trick indeed!

Who is getting the billions of soft loans? What are the terms for these advances? From the FFB (Link):

 

 

 

The CBO has concluded that electric cars are not a "smart" choice for consumers. From the report:

Because of differences in vehicle design and technology, electric vehicles cost thousands of dollars more to purchase than conventional vehicles of comparable size and performance.

Okay, the cars cost too much. What does the government do? It subsidizes the inefficiency. It pays a cash incentive for each vehicle sold. The subsidy is based on the size of the battery; it ranges from $2,500 to $7,500. But the subsidy is still not enough to make electric cars competitive:

Given current prices for vehicles and fuel, in most cases the existing tax credits do not fully offset the higher lifetime costs of an electric vehicle compared with those of an equivalent conventional vehicle or traditional hybrid.

 

CBO concluded:

 

The tax credits would still need to be about 50 percent higher than they are now to fully offset the higher lifetime costs of an all-electric vehicle.

 

I know that someone is thinking that gas prices are going up, and when they do, electric cars will prove to be a smart thing. I'm not so sure. The CBO provided a breakeven on this line of thinking. If gas prices go north of $6, electric starts to make sense. When gas goes to $10, all of the vehicles break even to conventional autos. The problem I have with this line of reasoning is that if gas were to go to $8, the US economy (and the rest of the world) would come to an economic halt. In that environment a fellow would be grinning if he had an electric car, but he would probably be out of work, and most of the stores he would want to drive to would be closed. What good does the electric car create for him if things go very bad? Not much.

 

 

There is a final argument that could be put forward in support for the mega investment the taxpayers are making in electric vehicles. The environment. Electric cars are "good" for the environment because they don't produce CO2 gases, right? Actually, that's wrong. The conclusion from the CBO:

 

  • In the short term, the tax credits are likely to have little or no impact on total gasoline consumption and greenhouse gas emissions.

  • In the long term, the credits might decrease gasoline use and emissions, but how cost-effectively they would do so is unknown.

 
DC is on all sides of this mess. It is paying subsidies for inefficient and over priced cars. It is creating free grants to support an uncompetitive product. It is lending very big money (with long maturities and at low rates) to industry players. Please don't tell me that car companies don't go bankrupt. These loans go out to 2034.
 
The CBO had a few recommendations on what to do with Washington's headache with electric cars. The one that will probably be adopted is this one:
 

A larger tax credit is needed to make electric vehicles cost-competitive with higher-fuel-economy conventional vehicles.

 
That's the solution? It's just sending more money down a rat hole.
 
 
 
 

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Sun, 09/23/2012 - 16:32 | 2822661 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Again "there is no energy crisis in the USA." the problem is that prices...save for gasoline are too cheap. The Luddites in Government think the solution isn't electric cars but GASOLINE powered one's. Nowhere here do I see mention of the bailouts of Detroit. Those cost BILLIONS...a pittance compared to work on a viable and mass produced electric vehicle. Obviously a natural gas powered vehicle which I have been advocating for RIGHT HERE of all places is the true "killer app." it must come now (Honda already makes one...and has been for many years) because QEternity IS A FEDERAL OUTLAY. Costs must be cut, economies made...natural gas prices have collapsed. There's your solution.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 03:23 | 2823572 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

With the government taxes added on; Natural Gas for Vehicle use will cost more than Gasolene. The excuse will be it's "greener". All Engineering solutions are obvious; absolutely nothing rational can be be done; because; wait for it; WE HAVE A GOVERNMENT.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 16:46 | 2822685 bill1102inf
bill1102inf's picture

its the same price as gasoline here in tallahassee 3.59 ($ per Gallon) 

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 16:36 | 2822643 robobbob
robobbob's picture

what you are seeing is the dismantling of American suburbia and force fitting agenda 21 plans.

increase the cost of gas

increase the cost of internal combustion vehicles with unreasonible enviro, safety, and efficiency requirements. European diesels get what kind of mileage, but not allowed sold in the states?

increase the cost of urban parking and reduce the amount available

force or bribe people into buying ecars that do not have the range to support a typical commute.

the highway system was built to support the current organization, the rail system was not, but Warren Buffet bought a dilapidated rail line for no reason. and how many shares of ecar battery manufacturers does he own? http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/30/business/for-electric-car-company-some-recent-challenges.html?_r=0

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 17:03 | 2822678 THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

The way MPG is calculated is very different in Europe with for example the Fiat 500 showing very poor real world MPG figures when compared to its offical numbers.

However the Skoda Fabia Greenline appears to beat the Euro numbers in the real world for some reason.......

Amtrak is showing some growth in passenger numbers in most lines despite the sick and quite funny lack of investment (people must get it into their  skulls that all Industry requires subsidy - with the airplane getting WW I ,WW II and the Cold war thingies.....

www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcb-gfPppI

The 707 was the direct product offshoot of the SACs KC -135 tanker for example.

Anyway The Downeaster has passed the half a million passenger mark for the first time ......when it goes into surplus I am sure Warren Buffet will take it off the taxpayer for a few bits of paper......

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Downeaster

Its how the American free market system works is it  not ??????

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 02:49 | 2823538 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

> people must get it into their skulls that all Industry requires subsidy

Bullshit.
If there was no government, there would be no industry?
I don't think so.
All industry maybe requires subsidies only in socialism where everything is so fucking distorted that nothing can get going without central planning

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 03:36 | 2823582 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

This is a very common opinion; if you actually study the subject, you'll be amazed at what the facts are; of course, this will require reading books, and etc. Every significant new technology that spun off an enormous leap forward in the American Economy was the direct result of government investment; usually to obtain some military advantage over other nations. This goes back to the fully developed radio vacuum tube; Western Electric on contract to the War Dept. produced standardized mass produced tubes and radio telephone sets for WW1 aircraft; and all the way forward to Television, microwave ovens, and integrated circuits which went thru many generations of new manufactuing technologies, all funded by the necessity of the US to stay ahead of other nations military capacity; ulitmately resulting in the computer you're typing on. In every case it's clear that enormous financial benefits to US citizens in the form of world class manufacturing and export sales would have been lost to other competitors.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:20 | 2822436 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

And once again, when the government gets involved, it all goes to hell.

 

And the CBO?  Well they have an incredible grasp of the obvious.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 03:42 | 2823585 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

There are two forms of involvement; contracts to companies to do R&D which is actually aimed at real world engineering advances; and political vote buying aimed at environmental loonies. or in the case of Railroads; gobvenment control to avoid free market competition; one is good; the other is bad. The purchase of GM;l to buy union votes for Obama was completely transparent; and completely dependent on the a-political populace snoozing peacefully. Bankruptcy results in a new business orginization; not no business. Buying the UAW vote, en-bloc; was a massive act of fraud.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:16 | 2822428 b_thunder
b_thunder's picture

Bruce,

you've missed another crucial point:  the gov't  sets the minimum avg. fuel consumption for all cars and light trucks that car companies sell.  The electric car subsidies allow the car companies to increase their fleet's avg. mileage on the taxpayuer dime, but once that is accomplished they turn around and sell more gas guzzlers, trucks and SUVs!

An example:  a car company  has to sell 6 small cars @40mpg in order to sell 4 trucks @20mpg and meet gov't avg. fuel economy.  if they can sell 3 electric cars whcih are rated 100mpg, they will be able to sell 7 trucks and meet the standards. 

The net results of the electric car subsidies are: 1. NO reduction in greenhouse gasses, 2.  massive amounts of energy and resources are wasted to make battery packs, 3. future disposal of old batteries will cause tremendous harm to the environment, 4. taxpayers foot the bill for all that,  5. Obama, DOE, car execs get a photo opp,  6. a few hundred wealthy  pouseurs show up in public driving their electric...  but  once the paparazzis are gone,  they switch back to 12cyl Rollses, 8cyl supercharged LandRovers., and private Gulfstreams

 

 

 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 08:53 | 2823854 patb
patb's picture

actually it's a pretty big reduction in greenhouse gases over time.  

The 3 Evs produce zero Greenhouse gas and as the technology improves, the 

number of trucks that become Hybrids increase.and Electric car acceptance improves.

 

it's all a matter of time.

 


Sun, 09/23/2012 - 19:45 | 2823024 Umh
Umh's picture

All they have to do to increase new vehicle gasoline mileage is raise the tax on gasoline. Almost whatever they use the money on consumers will buy vehicles that get better mileage. Why is this so hard to grasp; just manadating better fleet mileage leads to all kinds of malinvestments.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:06 | 2822404 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

As a bicycle repairman I feel it is my patriotic duty to warn Americans against Chinese made electric bicycles.  They cannot be repaired and will turn your skin a jaundice-like shade of yellow.  Please wait for American-made models that will begin appearing in 2025, just as soon as the people's electric bicycle committee decides on the bicycle's specifications and grants production contracts.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:46 | 2822348 Vlad Tepid
Vlad Tepid's picture

I love how Japanese car companies are getting US govt guaranteed loans to undercut production costs.  Those keiretsu guys must be laughing themselves silly.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:31 | 2822451 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

Laugh or cry if you are a U.S. taxpayer picking up the tab how about China getting all that stimulus money for solar power while polluting the world with impunity. I'm sure they find that pretty amusing.

 

Report: Stimulus bill money improperly used to buy Chinese solar panels for federal building

Obama Administration Outsourced Jobs with Stimulus Funding

 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 03:46 | 2823591 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Better than laughing or crying would be using your power as a voter to get this cheap crook out of the white house; if you wait to find out what he will do when he has no further election to worry about, in the second four; you'll be very, very, unhappy.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:50 | 2822326 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

DC is on all sides of this mess. It is paying subsidies for inefficient and over priced cars.

 

That is ... ALL the cars, not just the electrical variety. Add the roads and other required infrastructure, the fuel, the fuel extraction/distribution infrastructure, the finance-insurance-real estate industries, the advertising, the military- and related wars needed to 'insure' there is sufficient fuel, the massive expansion of finance debt needed to pay for all of the above- every bid of that debt along with all the fuel is a subsidy.

 

It is creating free grants to support an uncompetitive product. It is lending very big money (with long maturities and at low rates) to industry players. Please don't tell me that car companies don't go bankrupt. These loans go out to 2034.

 

Wrong, the loans extend ... to the end of the Republic and beyond. When the grand children's grandchildren are destitute, ruined by their predecessors' pointless waste, creditors will be there demanding repayment in blood. There will be nothing with which to repay.

It's always easy to tell which climate scientists, peak oil prognosticators and finance analysts own cars. They give themselves away with their petty equivocations. The enterprise called the 'United States of America' as been built with the almighty automobile at the center of everything ...

Now, the cost of 'everything' has become ruinous. Next is old-fashioned, Victorian-era bankruptcy... for the entire country and all those who decided to copy the Americans. RUIN, as in having a hard time finding something to eat, wear, someplace to live that does not leak.

You cannot cry enough tears, you fools, for the well-deserved whipping you are about to receive.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 17:02 | 2822718 tired1
tired1's picture

Cheer up, be optomistic. There's plenty of asphalt that can be broken up and burned to heat your home!

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 17:32 | 2822779 NewWorldOrange
NewWorldOrange's picture

It could even be oil heated. Just cut a few slabs o' bacon off some fat banksta's back...

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 16:37 | 2822670 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

But QEternity ends all that. The ULTIMATE subsidy...to the banks and Wall Street no less! THAT's why the market is rallying. Slowly but with absolute inevitability the Government is cutting its nose off to spite the face.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:08 | 2822409 avidtango
avidtango's picture

Not trying to be argumentative but what is your alternative?   Don't drive, trade or transport?  It's been remarked numerous times that the interstate, air conditioning and computers rank right behind cars as the most influential inventions of modern culture.

Yes, we have an oil society but I view as a necessary phase in order to give time for better and more sustainable alternatives. Yes, whole industries support cars (and oil) but the same could be said of almost any human activity - eating, sports, traveling, reading, knowledge acquisition.

Hope you're wrong about the collapse (lol -I have prepared for it anyway).  I can easily see a quiet denoument into a lower standard of living until the next phase of human inventiveness starts up.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 19:21 | 2822985 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

... the interstate, air conditioning and computers rank right behind cars as the most influential inventions of modern culture.

 

You left out television.

 

Most of what we've come to expect in the way of business is contrived, artificial solutions to artificial problems. As such this sort of thing is excess and is set for the (thermodynamic) chopping block. This is not me making rules, not my choice but consequences of actions set in motion during more 'innocent' times (then endlessly spammed on TV).

 

The future was never a destination but a path that few, if any could see to the end of. We intended to have material progress leading to utopia. Three hundred years later we find ourselves in a mega-crisis with the possibility of self-driven Armageddon and extinction of the human race. If we had known this was the outcome of 'progress' we might have made other choices.

 

Armageddon: there is no preparation for it. You go up on the roof and watch.

 

Answer to your question: whatever we consider to be 'modern' is gone. This 'de-modernization' is taking place right now despite the best efforts of our high-dollar men, our most brilliant thinkers, our best managers, our bravest soldiers, our most illustrious experts and the combined efforts of billions, each of whom is ready in an instant to sacrifice his neighbor in the name of 'progress'.

 

We look for escapes, believe we can find them within our machines that we have invested so much time and wealth in. Meanwhile, we casually feed our family members into the fire: our parents (by stealing their pensions) and our grandchildren (by indenturing them to creditors) ... We do this so we can keep our precious toys.

 

Why not throw away the toys and the contrived 'problems' and at least attempt to save our families, instead?

 

'Trade' is a word with many meanings. There is no excuse for New Yorkers' shoes to be made in China or for Mexican cooks' corn to be grown in Iowa. It's a pointless exercise, good for some billionaire's pocketbook but with costs that accrue to everyone else. It's also coming to an end. Again, it's not me, I'm not making any rules: the management 'system' that enables these 'excessive processes' is breaking down ... right in front of everyone. How much breakdown do people need?

 

Preparation: get rid of the TV, get rid of the car. That gives you a fighting chance which is all anyone is going to get.

 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 03:50 | 2823594 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Excellent advice; the television, in particular is actually destroying your capacity for rational analytic thinking.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:41 | 2822313 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Trying to subsidize a change in consumer behavior using taxpayer money when the cost/benefit is non-existent will work as well as the FED buying MBS's to improve career employment.

Solyndra.

Volt.

FED.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 21:18 | 2823174 WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Get 'em while they're hot. Just saw an ad where they're knocking 10K off the Volt. I smell another bailout soon. It's time to let these leeches die. 

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 00:51 | 2823467 laomei
laomei's picture

The great fear in that is that not only will GM jobs be gone, but the demand for auto parts will die along with them, which will impact the rest of US auto industry.  GM dying is a 1 million+ job hit at a time that jobs are in short supply.  No politician wants that on their record.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 02:12 | 2823515 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

GM should have died in 2009.  Instead it got a dose of obamanism that screwed mom and pop bondholders out of billions.  Obamanism pumped vital life force into the union health and pension funds and may be credited with reanimating the auto supply sector that was, arguably, on it's deathbed.

The result, we have a true zombie...GM.

To paraphrase...I don't trust anything that bleeds for twenty years and doesn't die.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:26 | 2822300 sangell
sangell's picture

If I could get a nuclear power pack like on that new Mars rover that goes for decades without recharging I might want an electric car. Resale value would be high too as a third world dictators would pay top dollar for the plutonium 'scrap'.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:19 | 2822279 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Electric cars were in use over a century ago.  Yet somehow with a century of technological change (including the EV-1) we just cannot seem to get away from the oil companies' gasoline and personal responsibility for pollution.

Oh well, I guess if G-d wanted us to have electric cars, they would grow on trees.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:41 | 2822338 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

How about properly planned cities with public transportation, and gasp, walking or biking? I'm amazed that I can't ride my bike to work, too many idiots try to run me over in the midwest. When I walk or ride somewhere, the question is always, "why?" How about bike lanes next to freeways? How about a healthcare/tax credit for riding my bike instead of driving. Nope, you need more sickcare, and hunkin chunk of truck. Cars are part of the terminal obesity problem in the US of A.

 

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 15:18 | 2822551 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

I'd like to ride a bike to work as well, have two nice ones. But the thought of it scares me to death. There is no porper venue for cycling in the Oklahoma City area, you are at the mercy of the drivers, talking or texting while driving. Yikes!

I cycle for pleasure and exercise at the present time, and there are some places to go to do that somewhat safely due to lesser traveled roads. But my route to and from work has 14 traffic lights in seven miles, and that just is not going to ever be safe.

And toss in winter weather events for some real fun. ;-(

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 08:56 | 2823865 patb
patb's picture

OKC has a grid structure ride the secondary streets,  it's not too bad there.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 08:45 | 2823825 earnulf
earnulf's picture

I agree that the midwest has about as much use for bicycles as aboriginies have for mercedes benz.    One thing people don't realize is just how darn BIG the US really is!     Once you cross the appalachians, the land just goes on forever and ever!     Americans don't think twice about driving an hour to visit a craft fair or several hours (or days) to visit family.     When you break it down to how far can you reasonably walk in a day or bike in a day and the world gets smaller, real fast.     Wanna see how things are being handled, look at the kids today in the midwest, many are postponing drivers licenses altogether because they have their smart phones and they do all their communication on the phones or over the internet.     As they get into thier 20's, these phonies are going to have a difficult time getting with thier peers once school is over with.    There's a whole new dynamic developing here that people aren't catching onto.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 08:59 | 2823875 patb
patb's picture

these kids are also getting big on moving to cities and riding the bus.

My biz partner has 4 kids, they postponed getting DLs until they were 18 and looking at going to college,

they live in a reasonably sized metropolitan area and walk to the bus because they 1) use their phones for entertainment and 2) like the freedom of not having to depend upon mom or dad for a ride to anything.

 

i see the millenials and they are burdened in debt so a car payment and a long commute is uninteresting to them.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 16:41 | 2822681 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Danger Will Robinson! Danger!

Serial junker on the loose.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:00 | 2822389 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Any city built before 1900 had to be "planned" for walking, biking and horses.  We've had a lot of urban planning since, and I have to conclude that these "planners" were maniacs or merely social engineers.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 06:47 | 2823675 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

In my work with thousands of architects and engineers, they design communities and buildings for owners who pay them. Dirty little secret is they don't really like forced sustainable design but it puts food on the table.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:57 | 2822382 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

You are a Central Planners dream come true they already have plans laid out for that Planned-Opolis. How about no health care tax people take care of their own if they don't keep up the rest of us aren't stuck paying for them.  Freedom use it or lose it why you would you want someone else to plan your life for you from birth to death is beyond me.

Eco-life in 2040 (Planned-opolis)

"Planned-opolis," where individual cars are made to be super expensive to encourage individuals to use much more efficient communal autonomous cars that they can schedule to take them where they need to go. City centers are mostly reserved for electric bicycles.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGQu1y4BZSs

Planned-Opolis: Infomercial for 1984-Style City of the Future (video)

Funded by corporations such as Bank of America, the City of London Corporation, PepsiCo UK, Time Warner, Royal Dutch Shell and Vodafone,  Forum for the Future envisions scenarios for cities in 2040.

Megacities on the move – Planned-opolis from Forum for the Future on Vimeo.

No, this is not a sarcastic video. It is a real, serious scenario.

To sum up:

  • Food and water is regulated and rationed by a “Global Food Council” which seizes total control over farming. Meat is a rare treat only to be enjoyed on special occasions
  • The state decides what your job will be with “designated career announcements,” nobody has the choice to decide their own vocation
  • Movement and behavior is controlled by a calorie credit card linked to a smart phone that rations the amount of travel the citizens of  planned-opolis, are allowed to make. Private ownership of cars will be banned for non-elitists because, “the state knows they just aren’t practical anymore.”
  • “It makes so much sense doesn’t it,” insists the smiley faced slave “Vee,” who enjoys the fact that she can “switch off brain and go to work,” adding, “With this many people around I’m glad there’s a mega-computer in charge.”
  • those who resist and still cling to some semblance of freedom in defiance of the state and the super-computers running the slave grid, there’s the “cry freedom ghetto,” prison camps for malcontents who are blocked from getting jobs, accessing high speed transport or the Internet

Other scenarios conceived by Forum for the Future are slightly different but they all have common threads: drastic reduction of rights, privileges and freedoms; constant reference to  “an elite” having exclusive rights on cars and other luxuries; state controlling all aspects of life.

A New World Order is not a conspiracy theory, THEY are selling it to you as we speak.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:19 | 2822278 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i thought the complaint on the left was of too much Government subsidies...oh, forget that. i agree CBO is not to be trifled with these next four years. maybe even forty. having said that this technology is the real deal. taking it one step further to solar powered direct drive is what i would have done actually.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:34 | 2822273 LMAOLORI
LMAOLORI's picture

 

 

It's a Rat hole that's for sure it provided money for cronies and screwed taxpayers!  Amusing to think this won't go bad all the solar loans did and to think this is off balance sheet (not calculated as debt) as well how large is our debt REALLY?  That stimulus is money out of taxpayers pockets into the pockets of the well connected not to mention the costs even with a greater credit is unaffordable for the majority so it really only helps wealthier buyers at the expense of others.

Government Stimulus Can't Overcome 100 Years of EV Battery Shortcomings GM Admits There's No Market for Chevy Volt - Updated

Taxpayer-Funded Electric Vehicle Maker Needs IPO Cash to Survive

Chinese Solar Company Learns Cronyism with Harry Reid

Another thing left out is our crumbling electrical grid

 

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:05 | 2822356 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

That same old 'battery memory' problem is still there no matter how much other peoples

money you throw at it.Nobody has yet understood it, let alone solved it.Its observable

and predicable.But the cause ?

The seven year battery replacement cycle is also highly optimistic/Dependant on usage,

four is much more probable.

May as well just rip up bundles of cash, less pollution and the same result,

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 17:05 | 2822729 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Battery memory issues only with Nickle-Cadmium based batteries, not Lithium-Ion batteries.    And you should learn to use google, the cause is well understood and the solution was to move to a different battery technology (which move took place about about 5 years back.)

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 09:02 | 2823889 patb
patb's picture

of course Li-Ion has it's own problems, it sure hates to be left discharged and it sure has a funky internal self discharge rate, but well managed, by a controller and regular use it's not too bad.

 

 

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 14:20 | 2822437 avidtango
avidtango's picture

And since we currently don't have a solution to battery, pollution or non-fossil fuels we will never, ever have them no matter who technologically advanced our society becomes. 

  That is the fallacy of many doom and gloomers.  They never figure in rapid technological progress. One element overlooked (no pun intended) is the rapid miniaturization of everything from speakers to computers to lights to batteries.  They use a fraction of the energy (for a fraction of the cost) of older technologies and their rapid expansion will transform the world.   So perhaps there is hope AND change on the horizon.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 23:36 | 2823389 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

flat earth horizons. Rapid miniaturization. Just like the campaign contributions

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 07:59 | 2823737 petolo
petolo's picture

Where does electricity come from ? Isn't it produced by smoke spewing coal/oil fired generating co,s.? I think conversionfrom oil to electricity there is a loss of energy, never mind, the loss in the transmission wires. Can someone set me straight on this? Thanks.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 16:50 | 2822694 tired1
tired1's picture

Hope sucks.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 16:42 | 2822683 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I've put your name in the hat for the first to be minitaurised.

That would be the first requirement for your thoughts to be realised.

Mon, 09/24/2012 - 04:20 | 2823600 Colonel Klink
Colonel Klink's picture

According to his wife he's already miniaturized.  Zing!

Frankly they need to come up with a simple, cheap, and efficient fuel cell in order for a paradigm shift to occur.

Sun, 09/23/2012 - 13:16 | 2822269 bankruptcylawyer
bankruptcylawyer's picture

electric cars in the u.s. don't make sense. however, electric pedal bicycles are proliferating rapidly in china. they are producing millions of them a year. they are RAPIDLY proliferating. in new york, almost half of the delivery guys are using them. these are people who are looking for HIGH utility and low cost out of their transportation.

 

one reason they are very useful is they excel in the urban environment and for short trips. the other reason is they are small, quiet, don't go unecessarily fast ( so they weigh no more than 50 pounds) AND the big one, they don't require insurance, licensing, cannot be ticketed for parking like a scooter, and can be ridden as a stealth bicycle as needed for riding against traffic, short 100 foot excursions on a side walk or off the road, across the pedestrian path on bridges, etc......

the alternative ---the bootstrap gas motor of nearly 20-50 cc, placed on a bicycle has been tried MANY times for decades, and has failed numerous times, where the electric pedal bike is now exploding in popularity in the high growth part of the world.

 

this is an interesting lesson. and guess what, china did not invest in any meaningful manner in promoting the electric pedal bike. it was a natrual , organic, business decision that happened in numerous factories across numerous parts of china more or less over the past 15 years. in the past 5 it has truly exploded. some might even call that succesful capitalism.

you can buy one these chinese made electric bikes now in MANY places in new york city for anywhere between 700 and 1200 dollars. they usually come with a nominal 250 watt hub motor, a pedal assist computer resembling a form of cruise control assist mode, a throttle for motorcycle like control if you desire that, and a battery with usually about a third of a kilowatt hour in juice that takes anywhere between 2-6 hours to refill from a standard outlet . european made versions of these bike are usually between 60-120% of the cost of chinese made models and generally do not reflect substantially better quality if you are buying either bike from a reputable dealer. at the very high end, there are electric pedal bikes that cost 4 grand or so. essentially resembling an expensive toy , where for utility purposes you would at that point be using that money to buy a nice 150cc piaggio and just pay the insurance .

how about that. instead of shitting on the electric cars ( which i admit is too easy to do . look at godamn tesla. that company will NEVER EVER pay a dividend ) ------let's look at an example of success. unsurprisingly, it comes from china and from the enterprising hardwork immigrant delivery men of new york city who are just trying to make a dollar to survive.

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