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NASDAQ 3000 (in spite of)

bugs_'s picture




 

NASDAQ 3000 (in spite of)

We kissed Nasdaq 3000 this morning.  Doom and Gloom abounds.  The macro picture is still dire with lots of bad news - some of which you can only get on ZeroHedge!  Consider the crazy news that Wyoming was looking to buy an aircraft carrier.  Is this not Peak Doom?  It is a sign.

I've argued before in the comment sections that the micro picture is improving but there is little reliable information to be had.  How about that Russell 2000 index chart?  These small cap companies have recovered from the bleak days of 2008 and may break out in an important way in the near future.  This is confirmed by the action in the Nasdaq.  The Nasdaq is not as small cap as the Russell and it is full of weighty leviathans that can cause the Naz to give us a false signal.

So here we are again at Nasdaq 3000.  The 3000 level is psychologically important to me.  I am dotcom.  In '95 I was lucky and got the second dream job of my life at a startup called "Netcom On-Line Services".  It was one of the first "internet service providers".  I got to live inside it, got to experience the run up, got to experience the startup thrill, and had to survive the hangover that came in 2001.

The Nasdaq collapsed from 5048 to 1114 and the days were dark for the techies and the geeks.  Housing had yet to see its collapse and very few non-techies really understood what the techies were having to live with then.  Now they get it!

That the Nasdaq might come back would never have occured to me.  Many of us never expected to see Nasdaq 5k again, but if you had asked us about a more modest Nasdaq 3k perhaps most would have said "never live to see it".

Here we are again at Nasdaq 3000.  I had been watching the Russell and the Nasdaq make their climb.  It was incredible to see something I never expected to see.  I started looking for a Nasdaq 3000 hat.  I couldn't find one. Nothing on Ebay.  It is a sign.  The Nasdaq on-line shop was down.  It has been down a long time.  Nobody cares.  It is a sign.

This week we watched the war at Dow 13k.  Expect to see war here at Nasdaq 3k because these round numbers are pyschologically important to us humans.  The HFT bots will play in the human turbulence.

So here we are again at Nasdaq 3000.  The media coverage of this event will be nothing short of bizarre.  ZeroHedge makes a lot of fun of the pundits trying to squeeze good news out of every piece of shrapnel that flys by.  Here will be a story that most everyone will have to agree is some actual good news. It will be reluctant acceptance.  It will be difficult acceptance.  The info babes won't have to lie - watch it in their faces.

I have been making my troubled way out of the doom mindset for year or so. The food stash is being eaten down and is not being replaced.  I've been taking a look at small businesses and startups.   It has been a long lost decade for the techies and its nice to see Nasdaq 3000.

Here we are again at Nasdaq 3000.  You may not have lost everything in 2001 or 2002 like, for example, the Enron employees.  Its possible that you may have only lost everything in 2005 when housing blew up.  Its possible that you may have only lost everything in 2008 when banking/insurance blew up.  You may not have a full decade in your emotional bunker like some.  There are always uncounted blessings to be found.

If you are still in your emotional bunker come out and release a dove.  Check out the micro landscape and ignore that macro.  The Kondratiev Spring is here and don't you miss it.  The micro is coming back IN SPITE OF all the macro foolishness.  The doom bubble can pop too.  NASDAQ 3000!

Thanks ZeroHedge
Mark Hittinger
bugs_

 

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Wed, 02/29/2012 - 21:54 | 2210667 cbxer55
cbxer55's picture

Maaaaa, What's up DOC?

 

Oh thats right, the Nasdaq.

 

YAWN!!!

 

Anybody got a carrot around these parts?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 23:14 | 2210957 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

You'll get the stick and like it! :>D

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 20:08 | 2210383 CrownThomas
CrownThomas's picture

+1 Bugs... spreading a little early sunshine on ZH.

 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 19:11 | 2210222 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I remember in 1998 I was talking to our company's HR supervisor in the hallway and casually mentioned an old employer had offered me my old programming job. (I had NO intention of taking it).  Later that afternoon I was called into my supervisors office and given a $20,000 a year raise. Good times.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 18:42 | 2210131 There is No Spoon
There is No Spoon's picture

Actually we're in the Kondratieff winter which will last another ten years. Once interest rates start to rise due to inflation, small businesses and startups will be unable to get financing. The alternative is deflation which would lead to havoc in capital markets. There is no doom bubble, the macro picture is not improving it's deteriorating, and many businesses small and large will be destroyed.

Is it a coincidence you're so optimistic after the market has rallied 25% in just a few months? By the way the Russell has been trading sideways for all of february and underperformed again today. This type of cheerleading is terrible for uninformed people who end up losing money following horrible advice whether it's investing in the market or starting a business. This is a terrible time to start a business in America.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:47 | 2209936 true brain
true brain's picture

Take away apple and what do you get?

Do the math, not the hype.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:55 | 2209967 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

where has cisco been for the past 12 yrs? look at the 10 yr chart and yet???? the growth in telecomm and 4g and my assssssssss

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:43 | 2209916 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Then again maybe Nasdaq 3000 is peak greed.

If we do break 3000 my bets are 3100 is the top.

It's over.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:36 | 2209825 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

shove that nasdaq 3000 up your pathetic momo fat techie ass; stand in line and stock up on your ipads, you're gonna need 'em to stem the bleeding....whiny 'lil bitch

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 18:05 | 2210002 AbruptlyKawaii
AbruptlyKawaii's picture

0% if you code python

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:26 | 2209801 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

it's a 'stunner' to Rob Prechter at Idiot, sorry Elliott Wave too

he was screaming "Bears" throughout later 2009, throughout 2010 and throughout 2011 (wrong 95% of the time, it doesn't get crapper than this)

not content with Planet Reality telling him he can't predict Prechter wheeled out a chart of the S&P measured against Gold which shows the S&P rally from 2009 being nothing but an inflated money supply phantom

True. Only problem is Prechter has been against Gold also squeeling "Bear" for 3 years (wrong 95% of the time on Gold, wrong 95% of the time predicting Silver). And another problem is he believes in deflation so his wheeling out inflating Dollars doesn't cover either his deflation storyline nor his 95% failure on predicting the S&P, Gold, Silver or US Dollar

Elliott Wave:inflated egos, deflated ability, the Ronald McDonald of investment advise

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:22 | 2209782 Robslob
Robslob's picture

One small problem...all of the stawcks are being bought with your tax dollars by HFT machines so while you celebrate today the chains are being shackled to your childrens ankles...

Better capture all the profit you can...35 year olds living with you will eat and drink more than when they were 10 years olds...and yes, you will take them back in...

 

Party On!

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:06 | 2209701 adr
adr's picture

After Facebook, what else is left? What else is really new. You have f'n Yelp going public on Friday. Wow, restaurant reviews online being valued at $1 billion.

I don't know where I can find restaurant reviews online??? It's not like you don't see thousands of reviews under any restaurant you google.

We are once again at peak insanity. The new billion dollar idea is giving your product away for free and claiming you have millions of eyes for ad views. That should be worth $100 billion, right?

There is this thing called a TV that shows full screen ads people actually look at. Shouldn't History channel be worth $500 billion by now? Look at the viewers of Pawn Stars.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 16:56 | 2209645 MrBoompi
MrBoompi's picture

How and why did the NASDAQ run up to 3000?  Does it even matter anymore?  Is it because stocks are suddenly worth 20% more?  Or is our money worth 20% less?  Or is it because all that money floating around has to find a home somewhere?  Only 54% of us have anything in stocks.  Good for the ones who own stock.  Too bad for those of us who own dollars.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:07 | 2209699 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Well, obviously nothing matters anymore (other than meaningless index numbers, perhaps).

Methinks bugs_ is in for awakening 2.0.

As for a contrary indicator, my wife of all people (who pays absolutley ZERO attention to Wall St.), mentions the "fact" that the Dow was back to 13k for the first time since 2008.

I LOLed. Hard.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 16:57 | 2209643 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

When so much of the NAS push to 3k can be attributed to one singular company, AAPL. is it really a "sign" that things are improving? Or mere evidence that the entire composite is being carried by one company?

Finding a life raft while you are drowning in the middle of the ocean can be perceived as hopeful by the drowning man, but it does not change the fact that he is still adrift in the middle of nowhere with no land in sight.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 16:53 | 2209616 dumpster
dumpster's picture

 

 

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 16:52 | 2209615 dumpster
dumpster's picture

bugs

squish...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 16:42 | 2209557 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

You get in and buy, buy, buy, bugs. Be somebody !

Unfortunately for all of your (and MSM's) intergalactic optimism....the bills have to be paid.

The creditors are getting squeamish about taking printed $ and EUR.

Be careful son....unless you are trying to suck people in like GS and then selling.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 16:39 | 2209538 GCT
GCT's picture

Agree Low.  I try not to be all doom and gloom but the market is topping right now and this is not the time to go all in.  I am waiting until April to see how all of this plays out in Europe.  People forget what happened last time when the markets plunged big time.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:46 | 2209928 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I'm actually wildly optimistic once this thing crashes and burns.

Smouldering ashes make the best foundation for Liberty.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:54 | 2209960 dwdollar
dwdollar's picture

Me too. There's a time to be optimistic and this is not it. The NASDAQ can go to 10,000, I don't give a shit. It won't be based on a sound economy. Not until the leaders today are in jail or dead and their vast fortunes built on corruption are gone.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 18:17 | 2210049 rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

Nasdaq10k=75% of the population in tent city.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 15:28 | 2209179 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

And this, ladies and gentlmen, is the psychology of someone who gets sucked back in at the top.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:48 | 2209942 Skip Danger
Skip Danger's picture

I don't know about him, but this puppy is playing out exactly as I predicted:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ka8jTINjMhs

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:09 | 2209715 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I see dead cats bouncing.

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 17:41 | 2209903 The Disappointed
The Disappointed's picture

Yeah, but who would have thought one would see dead cats bounce off of the ceiling? Dead parrots, yes. Particularly if they've been pining for the fjords, but not cats.

IMHO

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 15:17 | 2209130 Convolved Man
Convolved Man's picture

The herd turns...

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 14:49 | 2209024 Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

AAAPLLLE !!!

 

(Juck check GE performance in the last decade, or DOW & DD over the last 30 years, all were darlings at one point or another...

APE @ 1 cool trillion, why? Cause we all enjoy round numbers : ) 

 Of cause, given we are moving towards the chrony capitalism for a few, being competetive might be irrelevant in the near future. Eventually, it will be relevant again.) 

 

p.s.

 

what's up ppp?

Wed, 02/29/2012 - 14:35 | 2208961 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

"I got my runnin' shoes on, Doc!" think I got a few more famous bugs quotes lying around...I'll see what I can do...

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