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Reggie Middleton's Observations on Google's Dramatic 3rd Quarter 2012 Earnings Release
Here are my thoughts on Google's Q3. I'm at home with my ill daughter and a hobbled PC that refuses to do rich text, so an introduction will be posted here and a link to the full review will be included that points to the full review on BoomBustBlog.Before I get into them I will like to reiterate that many pundits, investors, analysts and traders still have no clue as to the type of company that Google is. Imagine a private equity firm that has consistently put out the leaders (as in the number one company) in several industries, every 3rd year or so for 10 years straight. Now, take that private equity fund and give it it's own operations with some of the smartest engineers and strategists in the world, and have them spend 1.5 Billion (that's Billion with a "B"") in R&D annually to discover new things. Now fund that private equity fund and R&D camp with cashflow from the world's largest automated web advertising firm, whose closest competition is so far away as to barely even be known for its wares by the average person. Now, add to it the worlds fastest growing, largest and most technically advanced mobile operating system. Then add to it the largest patent portfolio and 4th largest handset maker in the world (remember the mobile industry is where its at now). Then add to it the largest and by far the most prominent digital media destination AND publsihing property in the world. Then add to that the largest consumer and enterprise cloud operations in the world.
Finally, add to the mix the largest, most oft use and most entrenched search engine which (when combined with the cloud properties) basically makes this company the defacto gatekeeper for digital data for the world.
What would you have with this new world conglomerate? You'd have Google, that's what you'd have. Now, on to my anecdotal quips on Google's dramatic Q3....
Enterprise wide margins have dropped. I suspect the Motorola acquisition and the influx of mobile revenues, which alter the supply-demand landscape dramatically, thus dropping pricing power for the near to medium term.
See the rest of the full review on BoomBustBlog.
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Reminds me of Yahooey Yang
Fuck google and anyone who looks like them
Even the clowns at CKGB have noticed the "broad based selling."
They keep asking other clowns why this is happening. Could it be MARGIN CALLS?
Goog=Dated search engine tech co. PC based. = Sell
AAPL=Premier consumer based gizmo co.= Buy .. but at a much lower price.
reggie, dude, appreciate all of your comments and insights but
you are now bordering on that newsletter scam from the 80's and 90s...
"the market will rally considerably but don't discount a quick pullback
to the blah, blah..."
in other words, if you tell them what don't say when and if you tell them
when don't say what...
got to get both to me or you are just flipping a coin imho...
so, spare us, we all know google is the be all and end all as far
as search engines and advertising revenue model, but at some
point, like msft, they are just too big to grow...
g
stay liquid my friends...
The pattern is down, and it ain't a wedge. The cycle is cut, preserve, and protect. Bernanke has the keys to this fucked up short bus, which either has blown 502, or a hamster wheel with one of those blue handicapped signs on it. I can't dial up a budget on an etch-a-sketch right now, my variances could be off 30% for taxes and health care alone. Google reps are crying the blues, maybe, Reg, you should've called them in August.
nice...fighting the tide...haha great moments in metaphor...
g
Reggie, you're a fundamental guy. You've been down on Apple because of fundamentals, and up on Google because of fundamentals.
And all the while you've been clear that the markets are as fundametally flawed as the global economy.
Fundamentally, the truth hurts fantasies.
Rock on, Reg.
Here is the situation, Reggie. ANYBODY advertising on Google and using Google Analytics knew this 3 months ago. I saw response rates dropping dramatically week-after-week and shorted this pig in August. You are a trailing indicator....to me.
GOOGLE sinking... soon to be known as GURGLE...
Finally someone calling out Reggie. I am tired of hearing his bullshit how amazing google was. Look at thier stock dude. Earnings were shit just admit it.
Jobs' revenge.
GOO are doing a mighty fine job of shooting themselves in the foot ...that's Reggies job at ZH too
every project they touch outside of Search is a complete farce ..and now even Ad Revenue is going rotten.. instead we get some shrill dribble GOO-ramping from the usual clown at ZH, Reggie the biased Rooster
GOOG bailout imminent, payoff for their very massive scale data farming. Don't be evil, ZOG bots.
If google's ad rev was this bad, how bad is it going to be when facebook reports? It will drop big time. I look foward to a user here posting their big gains from buying puts correctly on facebook.
When a good company is the poster child for real good times, it reaps outsized benefits.
So I guess from the comments, people are saying that even a great company will reap outsized losses when it becomes the poster child for real bad times.
I guess the real disagreement here is when to buy the bottom, when we think a great stock has bottomed, or when we think the overall market has bottomed, because this market has a long way to go.
Prediction is very difficult, especially with regard to the future.
Mark Twain
Will google be the first driverless company? Only time will tell.
True, GOO is actually working on the driverless car. Only porblem is the car they're building (Tesla) has no buyers
GOOfball must remmeber in order to get to Step B they need Step A to be viable
a recent press (propaganda) article called the (politically lobbied) move to driverless cars "inevitable". We've heard such (desperate) arguments by other delusional dinosaurs other than GOOnbubble such as Al 'can't stop lying' Gore on climate change with "the debate is over" shuttering of any debate
and we all know politicians make fantastic decisions in every area of society, not a single success in 3,000 years and counting... but don't let that worry GOOfball, their attempts to shutter debate, lobby us out of our freedom to choose products and shove/force garbage down everyones throats via the usual monopolists channel (Govt) are the final stages of self-delusion of all rotten dinosaurs long past their sell-by-date
mind they don't fall on you Reggie when they collapse, which is "inevitable" ...though some of us long-suffering ZH'ers will be wishing for it just to shut you up (at long last)
Does anybody here think that if AAPL had missed earnings "by a country mile" (ZH's words, not mine) that Reggie would have had a headline that reads " Reggie Middleton's Observations on Apple's Dramatic 3rd Quarter 2012 Earnings Release" ? Or might he have been a tad more harsh?
Their earnings SUCKED and they got rightfully monkey-hammered. Just admit it.
http://youtu.be/jllJ-HeErjU
Exactly. By the fucking dip you fucking idiot.
You guys could not have possibly read that entire review that fast, so I assume your just making smart ass comments for the hell of it.
My targets still stand for the company on a purely fundamental basis, but I'm wary of the market overall whose downturn will drag /GOOG shares, just as I said on CNBC last month - and you see what the day looks like, right?
I'm not and have never been a fan of globalized central financial planning!!!
<deleted double post>
Reggie - I look forward to your analysis of their actual numbers but in the meantime I agree with you about Google's domination in the marketplace. The hard part is pricing Google in terms of a fiat currency that is becoming increasingly worthless.
Do you have fixed ranges that you hold your wealth in various assets? If yes what % of commodity to technology have you capitalized on previously?
"I'm not and have never been a fan of globalized central financial planning!!!"
Thanks for clearing that up. We can now trust 90% in anything you say. For the other 10%, just post "I own gold!"
Trust me. It'll work with this bunch.
globalized central financial planning seems here with us for some time; and markets will get turned off bigtime as fundamentals don't count anymore in the great chess game.
How long will this dichotomy persist is hard to say; as a sudden plunge down is not allowed by planners; unless they lose it totally.
Money velocity is a good indicator, as the fragility of steroid pumped system builds up, its could bifurcate wildly; from deflation move suddenly to hyperinflation and speeden up beyond control.
The nightmare of planners playing at supping with the devil...; get your Faustian knife and fork out. You never know when lightning will fall as the HFT doped market chugs along on FED/ECB pump.
Fall is necessary to release the new energies of a changed paradigm world in which, I will admit, Google will have taken a giant step to project us into.
Beware of Giants...
who has been a fan of such things?...appreciate your micro view but considering the macro, is it
intelligent to tell anyone their money is safe in a us stock? in usd?
G
stay liquid my friends
Sounds like a monopoly to me. No wonder Google is under scrutiny with the DOJ.
"..under scrutiny with the DOJ..."
GOOfball should be banged up in jail for monopolist practices flogging Android for free
shouldn't they Reggie?
...yep you're the self-proclaiming ever-trumpeting 'expert' of margin compression and commercial business practices...
The Silence of the Lame ...baaaahh to your fiery sword of truth
you're wrong. you don't know what you're talking about. you're trying to re-live the so called glory days of me as LKofEnglish...which were anything but mind you...and i said so at the time. "This should not be possible" was my exact quote when i drove Google stock up 60 bucks in a day prior to its earnings report...i think it was three years ago to the day actually. the fact of the matter is and experimental "machine" had been turned on at the time and well...it had a few...ahem..."bugs"...that needed to be worked out. One of them was the Google STILL doesn't pay a dividend...so no matter what some table pounding growth guy thinks as he ponders an answer to an inflation scenario that will never come SAFETY is your security...in the form of money in your pocket every quarter. Don't get me wrong...great company, amazing management, rock star banking behind it all. but given Groupon, given Facebook, given all the real estate b.s. and "so called recovery" talk...clearly this was an accident waiting to happen. now let us emphasize the term PRICE when we engage in the term repricing of risk...shall we Reg? Cuz LOW INTEREST RATES means MORE RISK not less...yes, yes????!!!!
and GOOG just breached yesterdays lows. LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
673 now..next test...660.
so its all in the pipeline...glad to goggle at Google's upcoming galloping gatekeeper role to digital heaven; Saint Peter I hear you!
GOOGLE FORECAST:
As mentioned Oct 15 - days before the premature earnings sell off - GOOGLE daily / weekly / monthly charts are overextended & significant correction expected.
http://trader618.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
replace 'mentioned' with out of control ad nauseum broken clock type spamming.
So what you are saying is I should buy this fucking dip?
No he's saying buy GOOGLE. Apparently Reggie thinks that the marginal utility of getting some dummy to buy 100 shares of GOOG and thus bidding up the price (1 billionth of a percent) exceeds the marginal cost of losing any credibility he may have still had. Which begs the question, "Reggie? Did you decide your credibility was already so low, you may as well just jump the shark?"
I'm getting dizzy with all the spin
Yep.
We were waiting for Reggie's thoughts on the 2012 results, least that's what the title was (mis)billed as. But he never got to it, the reality, a recurring theme with Reggie for oh, about 2 years.
Instead the hyper-ramper spin-meister entered a dizzy euphoria on everything and anything other than the actual results (ie. grizzly reality GOOfball is crumbling).
Reggiee's replaced dealing facts (results) for speculative supposition (fantasy). Fiery sword of truth buried in his foot, again
Reggie doubles down.
goog is overvalued by factor of 2!
shocking huh? who woulda thunk it?