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General Musings Reported As Ordered
I bid you greetings from Opa restaurant in Los Altos, where it's happy hour and I sit alone, drinking my wine and looking at my charts. Surely there is no blogger on the planet more devoted to his beloved readers (I would also tip my hat, if I were wearing one - - which would be rather rude indoors, but I digress - - to SocialTraders, who continue to push the web site to unprecedented success).
Where was I? Oh, yes, charts.
Even though The Powers That Be pushed the market higher at the close, I was pretty pleased with how the day went. My portfolio was profitable for most of the day - - although a lovely five-figure profit dwindled to a two-figure profit (!) by day's end - - but the point is that my portfolio hugely outperformed the market (on an inverse basis since, as you've probably guessed, I was so short I could jump off a nickel). I remain positioned for a fall.
Recall my Path of the NAZ post from a few days ago. Here was the chart; take note of the highlighted prediction:
Using the NQ, I've highlighted the same "prediction zone" below. The key, of course, is that this thing fall into the bowels of hell soon. If it does, I shall declare myself The King of All Charts.
Critical to this, of course, is that AAPL cooperate. They report their earnings after the close on Thursday (errr, assuming RR Donnelly doesn't screw up and release them hours too early). Apple pretty much has to blow the doors off every car on the planet in order to justify its price. The notion of them zooming to $1,000/share is laughable.
The Russell 2000 is at a crucial crossroads. It formerly had broken above resistance away from a somewhat-tilted basing pattern (tinted in yellow). It then failed beneath this "neckline" (roughly speaking) and has been treating it as resistance over the past week or so (tinted in green). The crucial "break" is of the trendline at which it is currently resting. If we can break this trendline, God willing, then it's party-time.
It's pretty simple, really: if we can get a break of the supporting trendlines - - which would take very little additional weakness at this point - - we can gather together and profit from a medium-sized drop in the intermediate-term. Some kind of failure on AAPL's part will make this easy.
The Fed comes on stage this Wednesday (which, by virtue of the mopping-up crew that will be required, will promote new employment), and with QEinfinity in place, the only thing they can do at this point is to vomit up an even greater figure than the $85 billion they are conjuring up out of thin air every stinking monthly of the year. (More radical plans, such as printing up billions of dollars of new money to buy stocks like Facebook and Amazon in the open market could come later, but we're not there yet).
I imagine Bernanke & Company will simply puke up the same language they spouted last time, since their plans need time to prove themselves (which will lead to inevitable failure, but again, I digress). I am as sure that the equity markets are ultimately going to undergo a vicious collapse as I am the the sun will rise tomorrow morning, and Bernanke will ultimately be villified as a short-sighted idiot. But the future isn't here yet, and for now, he's Our Hero, and we have to live with him and his ostensibly-egalitarian policies, surely conjured up to benefit the good working people of America.
Thus Spoke Zarathustra.
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Looks like you might be making some money today.
Take some profits before the late session rumor to prop things up.
SP500 impending sell off...
Despite recurring short squeezes, SPX etc daily charts continue to break down.
DOW 8 hour chart shows possible H+S (bearish pattern)
http://trader618.com
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-24/market-analysis
Tim, Take the short profits and do what? Buy bonds? My bet is your HFT version is your demise as the realization cycle concludes stocks are the only game in town with QEt in place.
one big fucking mud slide and it keeps on raining. some will get buried, some will cling to high ground, but most will be at the bottom and messy ass dirty, but ah, as always the insiders will have the cleanest dirty shirt...
looks like your tuesday will be a bettah day. that"s a dope slope, my brutha.
here's to you, good sir knight.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfGpVcdqeS0
i agree wth yer chartin...that, and i can just feel it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkADj0TPrJA
janus
I stopped after the first written stanza. What the flying FUCK is this shit?!
.
"am as sure that the equity markets are ultimately going to undergo a vicious collapse as I am the the sun will rise tomorrow morning".
The sun will not rise tomorrow. It's an illusion. It's just the earth turning.
Marvel Comics #137...
The Revenge of Captain Obvious.
That was not modest, this is modest: I went from a lovely 4 figures up to a very modest three figures profit on shorting RUT. BFD. The last hour was a head shaker, and the last 15 minutes was fucking SUR un Real as in WTF, watching the averages racing to the green after being red all afternoon. The PPT was ON IT today, my hat is off to you fellows - may you rot on a hot spit in hell - for the excellent job at the close.
I am so tired at shouting at my fucking dumb shit moniter.
But even a little profit beats a sharp stick in the eye, as one of my unemployed friends is wont to say.
Sure ready for this SOB to break where the fundamentals are pointing to.
Ditto!
Oooh Tim, you're such a stud, writing from a restaurant, modestly bragging about your trading day. If only I could be you.
That was 60 seconds of my life I'll never get back again. Thanks, Tim.
You are a slow reader. I cheated, I stopped reading after I've approached the name Knight.
no you didn't, you fucking idiot. you were for some reason (and i think i know what that reason is) attracted to the name knight. you consciously clicked on the article, fully aware of the author (as it's boldly listed in the top-billed 'contributer format'). and then took the time to write about the fact that you wouldn't take the time to finish reading; because you just, again, for some bizarre reason, click on every single ZH contributer article, commence to reading, stop yourself, at last start to evaluate your actions, and then conclude that you're wasting your time...after which you boast about your standards and knight not measuring up.
my conclusion (and i took the time to read the article and your post) is that your standards, and the 'virtues' that constitute those standards, have indeed left you and the rest of us cheated.
i bet you've left every single person with whom you've communed haunted by the certainty that they were by you in some way cheated. i feel cheated just trying to help you. it makes me angry, helping cheaters and all. kinda like lifting a fresh scab; helping a cheater, knowing that the help will only encourage the cheat -- festering the wound they created.
you remind me of a hyena; hyenas are nature's cheats:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FoNmQX09rX0&feature=related
notice how the lion crushes the skull of the hyena...that's the best part, if you ask janus. now watch it 5 more times.
in case you're confused, lions don't mix well with hyenas.
to wit: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SE3vCm_4wCI&feature=related
"lions account for over 50% of all hyena deaths..." we're doing all we can to push those numbers...i predict 2013 will be a banner year for lions. fade hyenas.
so fucking awesome! go lions! king of the mutha-fuckin jungle, bitch.
janus
Now THAT is what I call musings...
well shoot, someone has to make known they read this post...good luck Tim, and thanks for sharing your insights...
Still not sure what I read.
General Musings
If I lived in Los Altos I would just kill myself and get done with it
move to los altos.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mJ_WG3d3GL8
janus
It's a tough crowd here at ZH, Tim.
Okay, I think I get it. The author of this article is poking fun at what he perceives to be "the little people" who either lost big or don't trade. I'm reminded of the stoopers at the race track. Shuffling thru the old tickets and waving around the winners. I'd rather get that root canal I've been putting off.
I just spent 2 1/2 hours in 'the chair' for one of those...