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A Little Perspective

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From A Little Perspective: Market Shadows 10/22 Newsletter

In this week’s MarketShadows Newsletter:

Excerpts:

Consumers make up 70% or so of the economy, and consumers have been saving more and spending less. In an extensive analysis, Tony Pallotta at SafeHaven argued that "The Consumer Has In Fact Changed." While this change in consumer behavior on the surface may look good, the underlying situation is less encouraging:

“Since the ‘end’ of the 2008 recession something very interesting has happened to the US economy. US consumers have actually changed their spending habits. They have actually started to live more within their means. And that is a very positive sign for a number of reasons both financially and socially.

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“Yet it has been masked by one very dangerous action. As the US consumer has pulled back the government has tried to make up the difference through an explosion in government debt.

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“The charts may point to income growth, showing the consumer is fully recovered from the great recession. But they are misleading. The consumer is in damage control mode. It is government spending which has fueled this growth, a misleading term. It is this explosion in debt that is masking the truly fundamental and structural shift in the economy.”

 

Given a fixed income, increased prices for essential items reduces spending on nones- sentials. Therefore, if increases in income are matched by higher prices for food and gas, there is no left over capacity for more spending. Demand for discretionary items decreases; spending levels off. (The Consumer Has In Fact Changed)

The price of staples, essential items such as food and gas, have been increasing over the past few years, eating away at the disposable income (regardless of government reported “inflation” numbers which do not adequately represent prices on essentials).

Gasoline is one staple that causes wild swings in disposable income. AAA illustrated how driving habits are altered when gas prices are high in the graph below.

 

 

Even with the price of staples drifting higher, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is determined to alter the mortgage landscape and drive interest rates down to historically low levels. Mortgage rates on a 30-year loan are at record lows, e.g., 3.6 percent in August 2012. This is down from 6.1 percent at the beginning of the recession in December 2007.

The Fed’s latest quantitative easing operation (QE-Infinity) is structured to keep rates lower by continuously supplying money to the Primary Dealers to buy mortgage backed securities (MBS). The Fed’s buying has prompted institutional investors to bid up the price of mortgage bonds, thereby pushing down yields. The yield on the MBSs—the effective rate that new investors receive— fell to just 1.01 percentage points above the yield on Treasuries. That was the narrowest spread in almost 15 years, signaling that investors are demanding only a small premium to own mortgage bonds instead of Treasuries. This artificially reduced price for risk reflects the Fed providing a safety net under the MBS market.

The desired effect is to make people (particularly home buyers and homeowners) feel and act richer. Lower rates also inflate the underlying asset prices--homes in this case. Lower mortgages give homeowners more disposable income so they can spend more money. Spending more money on goods can affect manufacturing, increasing economic activity, and so a ripple effect begins...

Fallen Heroes

...AAPL is starting to look interesting as a long again. On the daily chart, the 100 dma broke at the second test on Friday, the H&S target is in the 590-600 area, and the main target is a test of the 200 dma in the 580 area. A good entry would in the 580-5 area. In a bullish scenario, there would be a strong reversal back up from there.

On the long term AAPL chart, there are five previous retracements in the last 20 years on strongly negative weekly RSI divergence like this retracement. While the last retracement was about 15%, the next smallest retracement was 42% in 2006. (Long term AAPL chart is here.)

AAPL may fall further. There are two possible H&S necklines below in the 567 and 520 areas. I favor the higher 567 area neckline as it fits with a drop into long term rising channel support on the log scale chart around 400. On a bounce from the 520 or 567 areas, I would be looking to exit in the 600-640 range:

 

 Fallen Heroes

 

As long as AAPL holds its 200 dma area, it could be a straight long play from major support (around 580). Apple Inc. is a company with a great market position and an unusually low historic P/E ratio in the 14 area. Sabrient rates it a strong buy – read the Sabrient report here.

Stock Market Dissonance

The economy and the stock market are not in a direct cause and effect relationship. There are many variables and confounding factors affecting the health (or appearance of health) of both. There are also enormous issues of measurement – how do you measure economic conditions? Which factors matter, and to what extent? Which yardsticks are most meaningful? Which are not meaningful at all? And highs in the stock market may look good at a distance, but the measure is in money. Inflated money due to money printing is not an underlying signal of health, pretty chart patterns aside.

So when trying to anticipate the direction of the stock market for purposes of making decent investments (in an environment where the value of the Dollar can be expected diminish), it may be a mistake to get too overwhelmed by long-term predictions that the economy is in a perpetual state of decline. Even if you agree with those predictions.

From a psychological perspective, “cognitive dissonance” describes the state of holding two or more conflicting cognitions (e.g., ideas, beliefs, values, emotional reactions) simultaneously. According to the Wiki entry, “The theory of cognitive dissonance in social psychology proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by altering existing cognitions, adding new ones to create a consistent belief system, or alternatively by reducing the importance of any one of the dissonant elements.

“An example of this would be the conflict between wanting to smoke and knowing that smoking is unhealthy…”

Or let’s say, believing that the stock market should go up based on the Federal Reserve’s undeniable love of money-printing and the perennial Bernanke Put may conflict with the notion that our country has entered a long period of decline by measures such as wealth (for the 99%), equality and opportunity. Those beliefs might invoke uncomfortable feelings of cognitive dissonance. In his book “When Prophecy Fails,” Leon Festinger (who coined the phrase “cognitive dissonance”) chronicled the thought processes of followers of a UFO cult “as reality clashed with their fervent belief in an impending apocalypse…”

 

Read full Market Shadows newsletter here >

 

Try out Phil's Stock World here > 

 

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Wed, 10/24/2012 - 21:09 | 2917338 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

No Coke, Ponzi.  Ponzi!  Ponzi!  Ponzi!

Next!?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 18:42 | 2917040 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The oft repeated lie: "Consumers make up 70% or so of the economy."  After taxes and after government mandated expenses consumers only account for about 35% of the U.S. economy.  50% is government and the remainder is BLS propaganda. 

So what else is new.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 19:31 | 2917150 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

How is it if total US Federal/State/local spending is $6.35 trillion of a $15.3 trillion economy that consumers make up 70% of spending???

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 19:06 | 2917095 Tippoo Sultan
Tippoo Sultan's picture

Apple reports tomorrow, after the bell ( provided, of course, that they have no business relationship with Donnelly ).

That being noted, the shoulder of said pattern could just as easily shatter...resulting in more than an arm in a sling, but another prominent piece of investor anatomy.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 19:03 | 2917091 Cash2Riches
Cash2Riches's picture

The Global economy is weakening daily. The only safe place is gold and silver.

 

Protect your wealth with Gold and Silver.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 19:19 | 2917127 jomama
jomama's picture

38 bennybux for a generic round...?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 18:11 | 2916952 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

Gold is money. Taxation is theft.

I hope the people(consumers) that are saving their money are saving it in Gold. Otherwise I feel they are being subtly and surreptitiously robbed from via inflation. Or do I have cognitive dissonance?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 19:47 | 2917186 GAAPpreNixon
GAAPpreNixon's picture

Not just being robbed  from inflation. Look at a chart of what property taxes did from 2008 until now. The town councils were determined to keep up with ACTUAL inflation and to hell with the people that are forced to pay huge property tax increases, no matter how put upon they already are from Bernanke's criminal counterfeiting.

If the CPI included property taxes, (Do you know ANYONE that can "live" without paying property taxes? If property taxes aren't actually a part of CORE inflation, I don't know what is!) the BLS would not have gotten away with the artificially low CPI increases; it's REALLY HARD to "hedonically adjust" to high property taxes. I suppose you could move from the McMansion to a trailer park...

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 21:06 | 2917329 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

I Agree. +1

 

"property taxes"

 

As I said, Taxation is theft! :)

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 16:03 | 2916604 negative rates
negative rates's picture

 

“Yet it has been masked by one very dangerous action. As the US consumer has pulled back the government has tried to make up the difference through an explosion in government debt.

 

And just what do we have to show for all this gvt debt?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 21:12 | 2917348 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

An extra large pepperoni pizza and two liters of coke with SNAP (EBT) card administered by J.P. Morgue?

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 16:25 | 2916673 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Some think: TIME

  (Time will tell.)

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 15:40 | 2916539 El Viejo
El Viejo's picture

Some think it is not so much getting out of debt and living within means as defaulting.

And as far as housing is concerned a reflate bubble within a previous bubble:

http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/us-hyperinflation-is-a-myth.html

And for the end game:

http://theautomaticearth.com/Finance/japan-is-not-a-good-example-of-how-deflation-typically-plays-out.html

 

Thu, 10/25/2012 - 01:13 | 2917821 nofluer
nofluer's picture

The bubbles have NOT been deflated. They BLEW UP! Thus despite all of the efforts of the FED, they CANNOT BE REINFLATED!!! Efforts to do so are only making things worse.

Wed, 10/24/2012 - 14:48 | 2916354 mrktwtch2
mrktwtch2's picture

so since your support levels were broken yesterday does this mean we can get short??..lol

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