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After My Contrarian Calling OF Apple's 3rd Miss, I Come Clean On My Apple Research Track Record For 2 1/2 Years

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

 

Since I have released so much opinion and analysis on Apple over the last few weeks, I can keep this post short, sweet and to the point. Apple missed earnings expectations yesterday, exactly as I anticipated and expressed to readers and subscribers. This is the third miss by Apple that I called. What makes the call so interesting is that it's actually quite an obvious call and doesn't deserve much credit. That's the point! Despite the obvious evidence that Apple is following in the footprints of Research in Motion and the Blackberry, Apple is still held (and actively bought) by every hedge fund, arm chair investor, cab driver and his grand aunt's cousin's dog walker!!! Remember Research in Motion, they had very strong static fundamentals and everybody used Blackberriers (even the newly elected President who was addicted to his "Crackberry") when I first suggested my subscribers short them in early 2010 as well, reference the following:

  1. After Getting a Glimpse of the New Windows Phone 7 Functionality, RIMM is Looking More Like a Short Play
  2. RIM Smart Phone Market Share, RIP?

If you go through all three of the posts above, you will see an iconic example of Apple and the iPhone, declining market share, ever so slight pressure on margins amid tense competition, but bulging fundamental performance and a strong brand following. Just two years later RIMM is a single digit stock. Why? Management refused to do what Microsoft is doing now (referenceMicrosoft Is Doing What The "Has Been Giants Of Yesteryear" Were Afraid To Do, Make A Radical Change BEFORE ITS TOO LATE!). Pooh pooh MSFT if you wish, they were one of the only recent tech companies to successully remain dominant and relevant through a tech paradigm shift. As this next paradigm shift approaches, you'd be a fool to discount and dismiss that company out of hand! RIM simply refused to accept the fact that the market demanded a larger, touch-centric screen with ample multimedia capabilities. To date, they still don't have a credible offering - THREE years later.

Well, with the advent of the iPhone 5 it appears as if Apple doesn't understand that the market demands bigger, higher res screens either. Despite the fact that the iPhone is responsible for ~70% of Apple's profits, it's offering its flagship with last year's Android tech while its competitors are innovating like bananas, offering 5.5 inch screens and 1080p resolutions with 32 hour battery lives! Both RIMM and Apple are refusing to slash their own margins, and rather would ride those fat margins out along their natural lives. The problem with this mentality - as RIMM investors can attest, is that if you don't cut your margins, your competitors will happily do it for you! Ask Samsung and Google if I'm joking... 

I have been most accurate in tracking Apple over the last couple of years, as I have been with Google and RIMM (and from a tertiary perspective, MSFT) - the only tech companies that I have analyzed since the great crash. I'm more well known as a banking/finance/global macro/real estate guy, but my success in tech is comparable.

aapl research accuracy copy

The latest Apple valuation bands (including the advanced pessimistic bands) can be accessed by paying subscribers below (click here to subscribe):

This most recent miss is more telling than most considering Apple management's extreme earnings expectation management (subscribers see file iconApple Earnings Guidance Analysis 08/12/2010, non-subscribers reference “How Google is Looking to Cut Apple’s Margin and How the Sell Side of Wall Street Will Enable This Without Sheeple Investor’s Having a Clue“).

Below, I drilled down on the date and used a percentage difference view to illustrate the improvement in P/E stemming from the earnings beats.

In our analysis of Apple, we are using real world assumptions of future performance derived from backing in to the low balling this company is prone to. If you look at its history carefully you can gauge what management is comfortable with, hence what they may be capable of on the margin. Using these more realistic numbers, it was quite obvious that Apple would deliver a miss this quarter in its battle with the Android! The following is the reason why - Margin Compression

Key take aways from this quarter:

iPad sales came in low

This is a trend, not an excusable one time event as Tim Cook attempt to assert, blaming it on "expectations". See the excerpts from our subscriber docs below.

apple product chart growthapple product chart growth

Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final - redacted Page 2Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final - redacted Page 2

Enterprise-wide margins came in lower than expected and lower than last quarter!

I discussed this in detail with Lauren Lyster on Capital Account. The margin discussion started at 7:55.

See how my subscribers read about the situation in detail two quarters ago!

Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final - redacted Page 1Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final - redacted Page 1

 

Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final - redacted Page 3Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final - redacted Page 3

Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final Page 4Apple 2Q2012 results analysis Final Page 4

For those who haven't heard my description of Apple's arch competitor, Google's, business model, look here:

See Right On Time, My Prediction Of Apple Margin Compression 8 Quarters From My CNBC Warning Landed Right On The Money! for more on the mechanics of the margin compression theory for Apple.

In short, nearly 70% of profits concentrated in one, single product - the iPhone 4/5, whcih is so far behind the Samsung Galaxy Note 2 and S3 (roughly two years behind) that the only real sales they will get will come from extreme brand loyalty or from those who have never tried the Samsung and other competing Android products. The earnings diversification route taken was the massively successful iPad, which is already succumbing to massive margin compression AND is losing market share to superior tech at lower prices at the same time. For the first time since the iPod was released, Apple is playing catchup to Google et. al., by releasing a smaller tablet - after the fact. A tablet that, upon launch, will already be obsolesced and under priced by the competition. While these tactics may permit Apple to grow at impressive rates, basically they will start to simply cannibalize their existing user base and many new users will opt for the best and the newest tech. Just ask Research in Motion!!!

Apple may feel "Blackberried" or "RIMM"ed sooner than expected.

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Sat, 10/27/2012 - 17:07 | 2924352 hustler etiquette
hustler etiquette's picture

 

i like Reggie;s stuff too.  The question is, does boom bust blog have an apprenticeship program? I imagine several cots in a bunker for several space monkey's.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 17:50 | 2922779 Islander56
Islander56's picture

Who is Reggie Middleton ? Mr. Obvious ?

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 07:14 | 2923600 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Mr Dick

...he's now up there with ZH legend, Leo

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:46 | 2922488 xtream
xtream's picture

Reggie, I think you hit a nerve but I also agree with you.  Apple is posed to cannibalize themselves. 

I think their big what if...is apple tv and get into streaming radio - Pandora's wheelhouse (and also Amazon's). 

As a consumer and as an investor, I refuse to pay a premum for a stock (or product) because its cool or has a great brand.  I want a diverse business model - like Google which, like you mentioned - is a search engine, advertizing agency, analystical tool for publishers and advertizers, a smart phone operating system provider, and now a smartphone manufacturer. They have fingers in multiple pies so that while one business segment might flatten out - another can surge. That's effective strategy. 

Likewise, Amazon is a search engine, retail, cloud storage, wireless and content distribution and content originator (there a many internet marketers now making money writing ebooks on kindle) oh yes, a tablet manufacturer.  Margin IS everything in a business, brand loyalty not withstanding. Reggie, I appreciate your contrarian outlook on Apple and I'm glad I'm not alone in that assessment.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 07:25 | 2923597 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

we're still looking/waiting for Reggie's "contrarian outlook" on GOOfy

problem is he's wearing rose tinted specs and blinkers with GOOn, he pumps them up like a bubble Ben QE program

Reg not only misses calling their upcoming earnings misses but when they do he proceeds to sugar coat the carnage in AAA rated garbage like "they're really a tek hedge fund" ...beyond laughable

What's the year-on-year big red ink bleeding to GOOn on Android Reggie?

watch this, cue stony silence.. he can't bare to give the maths/truth on GOOns mega-losses on Droid, fab way to shut him up though

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:29 | 2922445 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Hmmm...landing stripe or clean? Not sure. Really not sure.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:20 | 2922391 Dr. Acula
Dr. Acula's picture

>the iPhone 4/5, whcih is so far behind the Samsung Galaxy Note 2 and S3

What makes Samsung S3 so much better than iPhone? Just wondering...

I play games with other iPhone users and my friends with Android complain that the games aren't available to them. I don't see a compelling reason to get S3 in the reviews I found:

"we would (narrowly) choose the iPhone 5 as an all-around phone." - http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-19512_7-57510802-233/iphone-5-vs-galaxy-s3-vs-lumia-920-by-the-numbers/

"Samsung Galaxy S3 vs. iPhone 5 display shoot-out: Apple wins again" - http://www.extremetech.com/computing/136669-samsung-galaxy-s3-vs-iphone-5-display-shoot-out-apple-wins-again

Another article suggesting iPhone better than S3: http://www.theverge.com/products/compare/6116/5807/6082/6024/5236/3604

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:34 | 2922454 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

No use here Doctor

Reggie runs his own personal (desperately biased) product reviews ...he's the only man alive that can't take a decent photo on a new iPhone5 ...i'm not too talented and every photo i take on the iP4 is gorgeous

the only 'independent' media reviews Reggie puts on ZH are (surprise surprise) 'Apple-loses'. He scowers the Earth for 'consumers love Android' reviews when we all know GOOn has the brand pull of yesterdays cold Big Mac 

his cherry-picked bias is more predictable than the sun rising in the morning

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 15:13 | 2923604 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

we have 3 junks each Doctor

that buttons down precisely how many 'research staff' GOOn has planted in Reggie's office for the Apple-hater series ....2

the 3rd being that un-biased GOOf shill, Reggie 'Android-pisses-red-ink-but I-refuse-to-trumpet-the-maths' Middleton

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:07 | 2922383 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

I find it interesting that Reggie has been talking margin compression in regards to Apple the entire time, yet his detractors always pick away at everything else, ignoring how it will ultimately affect Apple's place in the world.

Of course, when one enters a religous zone filled with braggadocio, I guess this result shouldn't be too surprising. Instead of discussion, it's nothing but a strengthening of resolve with swords drawn.

Just another chapter in the e-book "The Internet Makes Us Stupid."

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 07:36 | 2923613 tip e. canoe
tip e. canoe's picture

chapter 13 : The Net Jumps The Shark

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:52 | 2922352 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

Reggie. You have lost the touch. Ever since you put down the spear, lost the loincloth, and put on a suit, you have been behaving like.................Ben Bernanke. With a dash of Lloyd Blankmeind. After a Jersy housewives waaaaayyyy too much tanning booth session.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:52 | 2922350 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

" I sell my research, so I simply am not going to give it out for free to the public until its stale or I have a plausible business case to do so."

Truer words were never spoken. I appreciate the honesty.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:44 | 2922333 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

BIG BROTHER

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:13 | 2922399 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

goes hand in hand with that outfit collecting data for those "disposition" lists GW mentoned yesterday.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:00 | 2922359 LouisDega
LouisDega's picture

Shit!! Now what? I just Google searched The Lawerence Welk CD collection for my mom in law. 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:40 | 2922324 Fox-Scully
Fox-Scully's picture

It may be time to go long on buggy whips!

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:55 | 2922182 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

The problem is, I'm not in the 1% so I'd still be on the street following yours or anyone else's advice. It's a rigged casino. I might consider investing again when I see the likes of Jamie Dimon hanging themselves.

 

Having said that, I really enjoy all the smack talk between you and your detractors.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:05 | 2922215 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Glad to be of entertaining service, my friend. Unfortunately, I have to go get some real work done, so if you can handle my "smack talk... detractors" in my absence, I'd truly appreciate it :-)

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:19 | 2922247 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

How long can GOOfball retain their strategic policy of dumping Android in losses onto the market before a competition commisioner wakes up at anti-competitive (dumping) biz practices and fines them Reg?

fair question yes?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:56 | 2922181 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I hate to say it Reggie, but Rimm has sucked all along and the only thing that sustained it was a stupid fixation by vapid CIOs.

Comparing Apple to Rimm is an intellectual Rimm job.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:11 | 2922232 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Apple and RIM face the same problem, rapid advancement of tech with associated commoditization - very dangerous elixir. RIM had a strong product, it's just that the IOs were the customer, not the individual user. Many didn't realize that. The biggest thing to be said in Apple's favor here is that management is much better and more astute to the market than that of RIMs. RIM thought that because a lot of consumers bought their product, they actually made a consumer product as well. They fooled themselves. Consumers bought Blackberries because that is the name they heard and were familiar with from the enterprise where the CIO was the actual client, not them. As more technically potent competition came about, RIM still thought they made consumer product!

The same thing is happening to Apple when it comes to tablet and handset capabilities and screen size. Apple still thinks they make the most desirable product despite drastically inferior specs, but once better tech becomes well know (ex. GS3 and Note 2), then there will (actually, is) be a mass migration that will collapse margins faster than a whore can pop antobiotics...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:39 | 2922311 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

I will tell you who wound up with Rimms. People like me because their enterprises insisted that those were the only secure devices. People like my kids who were stuck on Verizon plans when Apple went exclusive with ATT.

Rimm was run by an idiot who couldn't understand why anyone would want to do anything but send text messages on their devices. Finally, people just got sick and tired of carrying two devices simply because their CIOs were being stubborn and lazy.

MS, whom you say survived the paradigm shift apparently did so because GOOG failed miserably in their plan to eat Microsoft's corporate business up with their cloud applications which are woefully inferior to Microsoft's software office suite. The real shift is the evolution to tablet devices which no one took seriously two years ago when APPL realeased the iPad 1.

Apple seems to be doing fine selling high margin phone devices. They have plenty of margin to eat into if they decided to a strategy of predatory pricing. However, the strategy of selling the cheapest products on the market is never an optimal strategy. As long as you can stay in the premium end, that is where you want to be. Among other things, the Apple devices are premium simply based on screen resolution. Apparently, the most prevalent secondary use of iPhones is for image capture and sharing. I don't have one of the new devices. But I have tried them out and I am amazed at the difference.

As for iPads. What Apple has succeeded in doing is displacing the hegemony of the PC model. This is cutting into MS and GOOG. Coming out with smaller iPads is purely a defensive move to prevent competitors from penetrating at lower price points. What seems silly to some, is actually smart management.

We shall see how long GOOG maintains the luxury of subsidizing all of its businesses with search derived revenues.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:57 | 2922530 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

For one, Apple's phones are no where near "premium". I can tell you haven't tried whats available in the market. As for the plenty of margin, that's what RIM thought as well. These markets move a lot faster than management can reactively react.

 Apparently, the most prevalent secondary use of iPhones is for image capture and sharing. I don't have one of the new devices. But I have tried them out and I am amazed at the difference.

 

I see you haven't read my piece The Truly Unbiased iPhone 5 Review & Samsung Galaxy Comparison

Last year's Note beat the iPhone 5 in photos. The new update blows it out of the water. There's a low light sample photo included in the post to download at full res to see for yourself. As for screen resolution, Apple falls behind again. Their screen is not even HD, just a fairly high pixel count, a pixel count that is bested by a bevy of Android phones, may I add. The Note 2 and nearly all new Androids are full HD from 720op to 1080p. The colors are richer on the Note 2 as well.

From the link above, and remember this is last year's note. This year's note is a blowout comparison. I just returned the iPhone 5, it was a mere toy and convinced me that Apple deserves full on bearish status. As for following the crowd instead of leading in the 7 inch tablet category, playing defensive is not a sign of a market leader, now is it???

...  I don't think it matches even last year's Samsung Galaxy S2, definitely nfarilot this year's and will likely pale to the 1080p phones to be announced next month and the Galaxy Note 2. Now to be fair, I've only spend a couple of hours with this device, but I will issue a more complete finding in the near future.

For those that are gushing over the camera, well below you will find a side by side comparison with the now soon to be obscelesced (next month) Samsung Galaxy Note. That's right, last years tech against the flagship released yesterday. This pick was taken at the outdoor seating of S.E.A. in the Meat Packing District in NYC at about 11 pm. Those who know the area know the lighting situation. Look at the pick (reduced overall size since the whole thing was over 5 megs and I don't want you guys crashing my server), and enlarge if you wish to search for artifacts, accuracy and noise. Click here to see the original photos in full size, which allows you to see the difference more starkly.

 

 

thumb BoomBustBlog Girls Smartphone Camera comparison copy 

 

 

Remember, this is a comparison of the new iphone against the old Note. The new Note/S3 have a much faster processor which allows the camera software to be configured to do much more. Yet even with this antiquated hardware, the iPhone 5 pales signficantly. The difference is exacerbated when viewed on screen for the Note makes the iPhone screen look like a toy.

thumb 20120922 091840thumb 20120922 091840

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 18:56 | 2922877 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"These markets move a lot faster than management can reactively react.."

I agree Reggie, prime example numero uno, look at GOOn falling back in Ad Revenue, their model is collapsing as the economy weakens and no way to prop it up but their desperate attempt to throw sub-prime credit at it

What would you say if Apple threw their cash mountain at propping up iPhone sales?

You'd be jumping up-and-down like your usual anti-Apple jackass self blowing it out your trumpet ...wudn't ya?

How's losses running year-on-year at GOOfy Android Reggie, done the maths?

Don't mind if you give it to us in English, Mexican or your usual gibbering splatter-gun all over the place hard to follow gobbeldegook ...just give us the red ink numbers of "competing" (cough splutter puke) with iPhone

You talking about anyone elses commercial operations is beyond a sad joke when your beloved GOOn is an un-commercial joke. What kind of "competition" is it on an Android strategy of making no profit, flogging it for free when the competition make money? Sub-prime financing of their primary biz model, Ad revenue? ...pure desperation

Everything you crow and whine about the competition is a shot in your own size 19 GOOfy clown boots 

You're so right some managements can't keep up

..some analysts too

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:24 | 2922430 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Apple has a 'wagging flicking tail' already if they want to be a bit more predatory on pricing ...they sustain the older models for sale ...now iPhone5 is out i think you can not only buy the iP4S cheaper but also iP4 is still available

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:26 | 2922278 kito
kito's picture

reggie, you are correct.......apple will be decayed within 5 years........they introduced the world to a unique and revolutionary product (iphone/ipod), then made a bigger one (ipad), and perhaps their next product will be even a bigger one (itv)....but thats it....lightening rarely strikes twice for a company....they are living off their first product platform and the improvements are becoming less and less impressive.......their os is nothing revoltionary, its too proprietary (limiting itself to its own products, unlike android, which is open and available on all handsets), and their product is no longer unique..................

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:18 | 2922240 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

..and the year on year mountng losses of swimming in red electrons Android to GOOn are??

Fair question yes?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:54 | 2922178 divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

Things will only get worse for Apple I think, a lot of people were waiting for the MBP13, mac mini, and imac refreshes. None of them were "insanely great" (lack of discrete graphics options, lack of user upgradeability etc), look for more fanbois to go the hackintosh or PC route to get up to date gear. Many were looking for touch screen on imacs, hell even Dell has an AIO 27" WQHD touch model out.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:15 | 2922243 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Since when has an Apple update needed to be anywhere near "great" for the mindless masses to upgrade?

4S->5, another row of icons.

4->4S, a voice assistant, which is the current butt of many jokes.

3G->4, additional performance, and a major antenna issue

3->3G, performance.

Personally, I'd say the 3->3G->4S upgrade path was warranted.

iPad1->iPad2 was a major upgrade, but the reason for the iPad3 to even exist? More pixels? On a per-pixel basis, the GPU power did not increase, and consequently, many applications don't use the full 2kx1.5k which sort of invalidates the entire reason for upgrading to this heavy, warm device. The current iPad4 is largely a die shrink with a few extras thrown in. I'm yet to hear if they solve issues of weight and heat.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:22 | 2922270 divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

Maybe I wasn't sarcastic enough, except for a minor cpu spec bump mac mini and to some degree imac(21) sort of went backwards.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:02 | 2922199 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

nothing out of GOOnbubble has been "insanely great" since there one and only true hit, Search a decade ago ...everything else has been garbage frankly and swimming in red ink

then we come to Microshit which was a con job (against IBM) from the start and has been nothing but dirty tricks and rotten software for 2 decades

you wanna compare that to Apples non-stop cool genius?

PS: iPhone5 hasn't hit the ball out the stadium I'd agree, I'll wait for 5S, but the new iMac is gorgeous, the Mini plugs a commercial gap ...evolution rather than revolution but all good moves which is more than can be said for their copy-cat calamity clown opposition

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:51 | 2922349 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

iPhone X from this point forward will disappoint until they get their map application right. Steve Jobs dropped the ball with the map fiaso. It's the only app I use on my .99 iPhone 3GS. I refuse to upgrade to iOS 6 until they get this right. They have a year until my cell contract lapses then I'll start shopping for alternatives.

 

Here's a thing, Google got their search right on web based search. Why the hell does Apple not have their new Map/Search application in Safari on all their platforms? It seems they could improve more quickly with a wider user base.

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:08 | 2922386 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

not sure why Apples map is not rated, we use it sometimes when my cars GPS can't find a target.. it works pretty well in those situations

 

 

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:20 | 2922419 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

Are you saying the initial issues with maps have been resolved? That's not the impression I get from the forums on Apple's site. All comments are from end users like myself and there are lots of pissed off people who regret upgrading to iOS 6 because of maps.

They better get this right in a hurry or Apple will see mass migration to other platforms starting a year from now. I'll be one of them.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 16:10 | 2922564 divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

The one thing good about the Apple maps is the maps are vector based, they render so much faster than the old Google map, haven't had any issues with mine on a 4, even put in a known bad directions case from Google and it came up with correct directions. It would be nice to have the street view back though.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:18 | 2922211 divide_by_zero
divide_by_zero's picture

Heck, I was waiting to see what they came up with, imacs looknice but 21 no user upgradeable memory and mini no longer has optional discrete graphics just Intel4000 which is anemic in comparison, rMBP13 trying to push WQHD pixel counts with HD4000, rMBP15 barely keeps up with discrete graphics.

Contrary to Reggie's view I actually got an iphone 4 after comparing to Samsung SII and other crap plasticky POS Androids(Samsung does have nice screen though). Android OS even on SIII still kludgey in comparsion to iOS, on ones I've tried.

The iphone5 is still a better machine that anything I've seen out there really glad they didn't oversize it. If I ever need 4G I'd consider it, those freaking Samsungs feel like the size of an ipad mini - it's a phucking phone damn it.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:26 | 2922275 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

i'd agree Apples chips are "anemic in comparison" but it's never held them back in 2 decades.. the skill is in the software, it's beautifully written and runs faster. 

Microshit is clogged software and once the bugs and viruses start appearing with absolute inevitability it doesn't matter how good your chip.. anew Dell laptop 3 years ago was total useless garbage in under a year due to Microshite kamakazi collapse

tthe Android platfrom meanwhile is a turkey, the next versions are going to cause big problems of trasnfer and compatitability from what i hear (from their own staff!)

Glad you rate the iPhone5 so high, i'm just going to hold off until 5S as GF still uber-happy with her iP4

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:53 | 2922177 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

Stock performance year to date:

AAPL 1/3/12 open price $409. Today $600: Gain of $191 (+46.69%)

GOOG 1/3/12 open price $652. Today $675: Gain of $23 (+3.53%)

Yeah...I can see how you were right...but let me guess...your analysis is NOT about stock price...it's about...unicorns?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:37 | 2922312 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

let's expand this to the 2 and a half year range he is boasting about. Does it get any better? Yes it does...if you ignored him.

2.5 year performance comparison:

AAPL 5/3/10 open price $263 Today $600 Gain of $337 or +128.13%

GOOG 5/3/10 open price $526 Today $675 Gain of $149 or +28.32%

Yet somehow, he interprets this a meaning he was right about AAPL?

simply amazing.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:47 | 2922494 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

I thought you weren't going to be around here anymore, and lo and behold... several more comments. What is it about the chart in the post that you don't understand? You say that you have Alien IQ but the chart that shows very accurate valuation over 2.5 years still has you saying that I was wrong about Apple? Again, what is it about the graph that confuses you? On second thought, just disappear as you initially said you would.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 16:05 | 2922556 alien-IQ
alien-IQ's picture

I'm done with YOU. Not ZH. When your name is on the banner of this website, then I surely will not be around...until that time, go fuck yourself you arrogant stuttering dickhead.

I had no intention of responding to you but you just had to fish for a reply and I took the bait...if only to remind you that this IS NOT your website. I'm done with YOU in that I have no need for further direct back and forth responses with you. As far as your articles, I will (and now more so) continue to ridicule them because ridiculous shit needs to be called ridiculous shit...and your shit is RIDICULOUS.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 16:42 | 2922636 MillionDollarBogus_
MillionDollarBogus_'s picture

Alien,

Dude, is obvious that you bought AAPL at the top, like I did...

I feel your pain...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:30 | 2922294 oddjob
oddjob's picture

$23 works out to about 11 cents for every time he pumped google.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 14:19 | 2922257 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Meh, with Benny and the Inklets goosing the equities, FX, bond (and commodities? - OMG CONSPIRACY THEORY!!!111) markets, I don't begrudge Reggie not getting the stock price right.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 15:15 | 2922135 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Oh bore, the Apple-hater Series is back

 

"Apple missed earnings expectations yesterday, exactly as I anticipated and expressed.."

Your trumpet doesn't shout about GOOfball misses though, strange, cat got your toungue or something more grotty effects your silence/bias, sorry professional (cough) opinion?

"This is the third miss by Apple that I called.."

Yes, usually 7 times each, talk about tedious repetition. Which makes lots of missed trumpet calls on GOOnbubble's latest mega-miss... did your (suffering) subscribers get your GOO-drowning trumpet call warnings and we not?

...you did warn your paying subscribers GOOn was about to miss yes??

"Despite obvious evidence Apple is following in the footprints of RiM..."

Despite the obvious evidence GOOfballs desperate (illegal) dump of Android, swimming in red ink losses, is yet more hard eyeball GOOfball is a diseased dinosaur. Propping up failing Ad Revenue with sub-prime credit could be the last straw for this junk corporation.

Fixed it for you Reg

"..bulging fundamental performance and a strong brand following."

Truth! And the only strong brand following GOOnbubble has on Earth is Reggie ..it's toxic but some chump has to be found to pump it up (here's lookin at you kid).

"Apple would deliver a miss this quarter in its battle with the Android.."

It's hard to "battle" something given away free in packets of cornflakes.

Unless you've got it very wrong and Apple aren't competing at the bottom of the barrel for GOOfballs target audience of casual-campers who just want a Mbl Phone and any old piece of crap software that works half-decent.

"Both RIMM and Apple ...would ride those fat margins out along their natural lives."

Yes, it's called commercial business practice, remember that?

You know making money, not swimming underwater in losses like your fav desperate chump. Have a word with GOOn, see how much they're paying to keep competition commissioners around the world off their backs for dumping 

Put a figure on GOOn's losses Reggie? ....Reggie?!! ....where's your fiery sword of truth gone??? Where's our favourite un-biased tell-the-truth analyst GOOne?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 11:31 | 2921654 Cone of Uncertainty
Cone of Uncertainty's picture

You should title this post:

HOW REGGIE GOT APPLE RIGHT, AND YOU GOT YOUR FACE RIPPED OFF LISTENING TO HIM FOR THE LAST 2.5 YRS.

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 11:40 | 2921701 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

You apparently forgot to read the post. Anyone who subscibed to my research didn't get their "faces ripped off". As a matter of fact, the valuations were some of the most accurate on the Street. To make your comment appear even more assinine, I clearly said I recommended subscribers look to the pessimistic band in lieu of the base case band last month. Roughly 100 points downward later...

I know, facts and the truth are not what powers your comments. I'm just saying...

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:40 | 2922132 notadouche
notadouche's picture

At least admit you "were early" starting you Apple destruction from several hundred stock points ago.  You weren't wrong, just very early.  No I didn't bother reading this particular missive but I have read many of your Apple missives on this site since Apple was around 270.  I believe you were calling for Apple's collapse back then.  You were wrong until you were right.  As far as stock pricing, would that be somewhat fair?

Fri, 10/26/2012 - 13:59 | 2922197 Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

No, that's not fair. If you don't read, then you simply don't have the requisite info to intelligently comment. I sell my research, so I simply am not going to give it out for free to the public until its stale or I have a plausible business case to do so. That's a fact that is simply not going to change and any who can't get over that need to read somewhere else. I'm a businessman as well as an investor and giving product away for free causes my margin compression, if you know what I mean.

With that being said, every single thing that I claimed publicly over the last 2 and half years has rang true, yet there were many who ignored it despite its veracity. I don't comment on stock prices in public because that is part and parcel of what I sell. Well, now I released my price valuation bands and now as all can see, not only was I not wrong, I was particularly right over time - both from a bullish and a bearish perspective. I don't say this to boast, but Apple is such an asshole topic for many.

I did the same longer term analysis for Greece, much of the EU, Goldman Sachs, GGP, and a whole host of other nations/companies and assets where I was proven right on the facts but price movement took some time to manifest - even though I clearly said price movement will take some time to manifest - downward or upward. 

Take a guess what the only subject that elicited 5 asshole comments for every 3 lucid ones (and I'm not talking about comments that simply disagree with me, I truly mean asshole comments)??? That's right, Apple. Why is it that Greece can take 3 years to default and nobody says I'm wrong, but Apple takes 8 quarters to break and there's a holy Jihad to defend the name of the he who is most holy???

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