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Could the U.S. Election Release the Bulls?
Could the U.S. Election Release the Bulls?
Justin Burkhardt | FXFocus.com
The Bear. Or the Bull. That is the question. With polls tightening, traders around the world are looking for that perfect hedge to be in the green regardless of who takes office in the coming presidential election in November.
Though the outcome of this event is still unclear the anticipated response is. The markets clearly react differently to each candidate, which is obvious if we analyze how the market performed during the recent Presidential debates. In the first debate Romney walked away with a strong win and the U.S. Dollar rallied. In the second debate however Obama won and the U.S. Dollar declined. This theory was further confirmed in international markets. The Euro along with the Australian Dollar advance with an Obama win and declined with a Romney win.
The conclusion that we can draw from this is that the U.S. Dollar has more confidence in the Romney administration than it does an Obama administration, but that is not necessarily the case for all other asset classes. Over the last four years the S&P 500 has rallied 120 percent under the Obama administration. The QE market flood caused tidal waves in major indexes, but that volatility could be coming to an end depending on the outcome of this election.
If the Presidential nomination swings in Romney’s favor the major indexes will likely decline because Romney has made it clear that QE wouldn’t last under his candidacy.
Regardless of who takes office, the fiscal cliff remains in sight. The EU crisis has reached critical levels, the real unemployment levels here on the home front are far worse than the mainstream media lets on and our next steps as a nation are crucial.
FOREX Insights
Caution is key prior to the outcome of big events such as this one. The presidential announcement will likely cause a spike in the market that could swing in either direction. So in order to hedge against risk the safest move is to wait until after the announcement to take a position and then ride the emerging wave.
The EURUSD has been on the decline this week falling from 1.306 to 1.288 and is approaching its first strong support level at 1.285. I am speculating that a Romney win could give the pair the momentum that it needs to push past major resistance levels working its way back down towards parity… But its yet to be seen how that actually plays out.
Your currency analyst,
Justin Burkhardt
Disclaimer: I have no positions in any of assets mentioned, but may initiate a (long or short) position in the EURUSD over the next 72 hours
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I have been formerly educated and mentored in Elliot Wave, one of the most advanced analytical methodologies in the world, which is highly utilized by both investment firms and Hedge Funds everywhere............
This is from Mr. Burkhardt's autobiographical introduction. Befpre spouting off on Fx trading and other self serving bombast, i suggest he avail himself of some English Spelling and Writing courses. Caveat Emptor if you decide to place your segregated funds with him.
Well, typing anyway...
Election year seasonality is quite positive for stocks from now thru the end of the year and the analogue has been tracking well. I don't think fast money cares who the president is.
I doubt the calm wit last. ( See http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-10-26/forget-1-99-or-47-it-turn-70-be-pissed ). SWHC and RGR will become good hedges, and something to use when you are hiding behind a hedge..
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Swiss bank UBS AG is expected to cut up to 10,000 jobs, or 16 percent of its workforce, as it contends with shrinking revenue and rising capital requirements, a source familiar with the matter said, in what would be one of the largest layoffs by a bank since the financial crisis.
http://news.yahoo.com/ubs-cut-10-000-jobs-source-000442620--sector.html
If job exporting Romney is elected..... the USA will be turned into Greece on steroids.
Austerity here we come!
The stock markets, real esate markets will tank+++++++++++!
there is an idiot posting here that romney will export jobs of course we all know Obuma never did the last 4 years, GE moving thousands off shore is" well some one else did that"..GM building plants in mexico and china, "someone else did that" on jobs Obuma is a master exporter. both NWO puppets.
"both NWO puppets."
Pay no attention to the jerkoff posse behind the curtain.
Let's see:
USA debt:GDP = 102%
Greece debt:GDP = 120-160%
So, Obama can turn us into Greece in just a couple of more years (after all no one has ever run $1T deficits four years in a row-he's a proven loser). Four more years of Obama and we'll be at $20T, but GDP will still be stuck at $15T, so we'll be at 150%. Why we even include government spending in GDP is quite a mystery as its just a big income transfer mechanism. (Like me transferring $10 from my right to left pocket, while losing $2 during the transfer and concluding I'm wealthier.)
Obama has already accomplished that feat.
It's the Fucking Fed stupid.
WTF is so hard to understand that the Fed is the "market"...period.
I think an Obama win would cause many assets that have risen substantially to at least initially decline because of Obama's 3.8% added Medicare tax on passive income over $200K/$250K starting 2013. My understanding is Romney would try to repeal that provision.
(I already voted by by mail for a 3rd party candidate as I consider both Romney and Obama unacceptable. It cost me 44 cents postage, an inexpensive protest vote.)
And of course your third party candidate, if elected, would save the planet.
Hypothetically Gary Johnson would. Ron Paul could have if he had challenged the Iowa vote count immediately and had his people in to observe instead of wimping out.
Election and poll rigging need more attention all year every year.
I guess the concept of a protest vote is too difficult for you to understand.
Not to mention that no matter what either candidate does the results will be the same in the long run - it is just a matter of timing.
Because it is a solvency problem.
One week after the election it won't matter.
Bullshit will fight with reality until reality finally wins.
Doesn't matter what either of these figureheads do, the debt tsunami will have it's way sooner or later.
No matter which ass cheek is elected, gold and silver is where the action will be.
Bitchez.
Mr Burkhardt, you're smoking something mega-strong thinking the Presidential debates moved the Dollar
You not heard the "it's the economy stupid" saying? Obviously not.
It is markets that move politics (and politicians), not the other way round. You've grabbed the wrong end of the stick, and TV viewers opinions of how the Presidential debate is going is also of little use to a Forex market. Do you buy/sell Dollars on election swings? ...nobody sane would
Bull or bear? What? Who actually trades anymore?
You would have to keep money on account at some firm, right? Fuck that.
Just buy the shiny metals and keep them at home bitchez!
Release the bulls?
It will release the bullsh*t of one of the final presidencies of the American Empire
Let's be clear: The powers-that-be are doing everything within their ability to keep markets from shitting the bed *right now*. Markets are on life-support. Government statistics are being carefully massaged. Forward expectations are hilariously optimistic.
In other words -- whatever "bullishness" is in the markets is already priced in. When the pressure comes off the propaganda gas-pedal on November 6th, the potential for an all out rout is frighteningly high.
Furthermore, all geopolitical moves are officially on "hold" until November 6th. But right now we've got an aircraft carrier in the South China Sea and the rest of the fleet is in the Gulf of Aden. What are they waiting for? For the election to be over, that's what.
Anyone who thinks the current alignment of forces is going to be "bullish" after the election has balls of titanium. There are times to be cautious, and the coming political turning point is going to have massive geopolitical and economic effects.
Bullish? NFW.