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Too Much Rain Will Kill Ya

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

The farmers have a saying:

 

A drought will scare you to death, too much rain will kill ya.

 

As of noon on Saturday, there are still two different forecasts for where Sandy is going to hit. It makes a very big difference which model is right.

 

The Euro model has the storm making landfall south of New Jersey. The US GFS model has it 150 miles north:

 

 

 

The northeast side of the storm will suffer the most, so the US GFS forecast is about the worse news NYC could get.

 

NOAA is currently using the Euro model in its estimates where the storm will hit. NOAA is also providing estimates on rainfall associated with this storm. Consider this:

 

 

That ugly brown patch (11.57 inches) over the Delmarva Peninsula is a disaster in the making. Twelve hours ago NOAA forecast was for an incredible 14+ inches of rain.

 

 

Combine a worst case outcome of the Euro landfall forecast and the NOAA estimate for rainfall of 10+ inches north of landfall (NYC). The outcome would be far worse than the 4.4 inches that NYC got a year ago with Irene.

 

This storm is without precedent, and its still unpredictable. Let’s hope the 30 odd million folks in the metro area don’t get the worst-case hit. NYC would drown if it did. There is the potential to blow out the historical rainfall record for Central Park.

 

 

 

++

 

 

 

Note:

My first week on Wall Street was in August of 1973. I was newbie to NYC. My office was on the south side of 100 Wall, on the second floor, looking out over Front Street.

 

There was a tremendous thunderstorm one afternoon. I looked out the window as the street filled with water. The flood poured into a street gutter and overwhelmed it.

 

With the gutter flooded, the rats were drowning. They came out of every hole. In twenty minutes, 500 came out of the one gutter I was watching.

 

The rain stopped and the flooding abated. The rats on the street followed the receding water back into their holes.

 

A memorable first impression of life in the financial district.

 

 

 

 

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Wed, 10/31/2012 - 22:50 | 2936557 Money Squid
Money Squid's picture

Not too long ago you complained about the low water level in your pond. How is it now?

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 18:17 | 2926007 GoldbugVariation
GoldbugVariation's picture

In 1987, the 'Black Monday' financial crash on October 19 followed a hurricane (OK, technically a severe non-tropical storm) hitting the UK on the night of 15-16 October.  London markets were closed on 16 October and insurance companies spent the weekend counting the damage and planning what assets to sell.

The single event which actually precipitated the crash on Monday 19 was the US attacking an Iranian oil platform in the Persian Gulf.

http://www.fool.com/Features/1997/sp971017CrashAnniversary1987Timeline.htm

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:36 | 2925119 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

The Euro model is predicting austerity wherever the rain falls. Mainly in Spain according to the calculations, but also New Jersey.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 10:30 | 2925107 NorthenSoul
NorthenSoul's picture

To those who pretend it is possible to "negotiate" with me,

Sandy is my answer. Allow me to translate for the benefit of the mentally challenged and those who are paid not to understand:

Happy Halloween...motherfuckers!

In affection and love,

Mother Nature

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:02 | 2925161 CloseToTheEdge
CloseToTheEdge's picture

"We'll make a killing out of food crisis" Glencore trading boss Chris Mahoney

"Drought is good for business" James Cusick

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:59 | 2925064 Widowmaker
Widowmaker's picture

Rain like the hammers of hell.

 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 09:36 | 2925063 blindman
blindman's picture

Saturday, October 27, 2012CNBC article on 43 Trillion Lawsuit has been taken down just as I thought it would be. Link goes to an empty page now. CNBC Sr. V.P. digital executive two kids killed hours after being put on net.
http://sherriequestioningall.blogspot.com/2012/10/cnbc-article-on-43-tri...

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 07:55 | 2925001 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

Anybody else following the hockey-stick Michael Mann "Nobel Prize" brouhaha? 

Here is latest WUWT summary

@Bruce, aren't you going to make some comment about global warming, er, climate change.  oops, I meant climate disruption?

Global warming stopped 16 years ago, reveals Met Office report quietly released...

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 09:24 | 2925049 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Gawd! You never quit. 

I was very clear in that article that I was no climate expert. I was not taking sides.

I presented some data and then asked for comments from readers. Turns out this was a very emotive topic. I've been getting emails with links from one side or the other ever since.

With Sandy included, the top 3 rainfalls in NYC over the last 130 years will have occured in the past five years. Nothing to see at all....

b

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:41 | 2925238 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

We could get Al Gore and IPCC in here to determine if this is weather or climate, but the climategate emails revealed their MO:  If it makes the news it is "climate disruption" even if it is earthquakes or nuclear meltdowns.  If it is 15 years of steady contratiction to warmists lies, then it is definitely not "climate".  Heads the warmists win, tails freedom looses.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 12:08 | 2925315 CloseToTheEdge
CloseToTheEdge's picture

your 'argument' is as lazy as your spelling

 

“We can't stop here, this is bat country!”

Hunter

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 18:36 | 2926034 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

Oh, now I think I get it.  You New Yorkers think that the rest of the world should pay special notice because the empire's  center of power and corruption is threatened by "climate disruption".  Flyover country is rooting for the hurricane.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:57 | 2925282 CloseToTheEdge
CloseToTheEdge's picture

why do you keep linking back to the fraudster that never contacted the Met Office in the first place?

 

Yearly minimum sea ice volume for the 2005-2012 period (in km3):
2005: 9159
2006: 8993
2007: 6458
2008: 7072
2009: 6893
2010: 4428
2011: 4017
2012: 3263

Ten Charts That Make Clear The Planet Just Keeps Warming

 

 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 08:17 | 2925007 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I sincerely hope you haven't spawned already, thus dooming an innocent soul to the same pathetic life of perpetual ignorance.

 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 09:45 | 2925070 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

Ah yes, ignore the post and pretend that Mann didn't lie about his "Nobel Prize".  Like you other warmists he is just another phony intellectual calling others "ignorant". 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 03:59 | 2924924 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

It certainly would be great if Sandy would drown all the rats on Wall Street. "It's an ill wind that doesn't blow someone some good"!

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 01:53 | 2924869 Bear
Bear's picture

When they declare New York City a disaster area, it will be the first truth coming out of DC about the disaster that is NY.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 01:32 | 2924858 One World Mafia
One World Mafia's picture

Housing inventory reduction and taxpayer bailout for property owners including banks.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 23:07 | 2924789 max2205
max2205's picture

Quit counting rats and get back to trading!

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 23:10 | 2924792 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

OK. I'll give ya 5 shiney Susan Anthony dollars for that one lousy dull maple leaf ya got.

I'll even throw in a beer. Act now.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 22:57 | 2924783 willwork4food
willwork4food's picture

They could be totally wrong on this. It could go right out to sea. Then again...

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 21:37 | 2924714 machineh
machineh's picture

Rats will scare you to death ... but Demorepublic-rats will kill ya.

Another great reason not to vote!

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 20:55 | 2924656 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

Good article as usual, Bruce. I always remember, "There's never only one Rat."

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 20:05 | 2924597 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

I always read your posts. Your personal touch and brilliant insights and on occasion personal networks, incites me to always want to read just a little bit. I am never disappointed. You are my favorite contributor to ZH.

I haggled you a while back about the video attempt and hope I didn't detour your from that course.

I feel, if I may embellish, that you seem like a VN vet who has convictions and regrets on the back side. Recently I bought "On Killing" by Grossman. I wonder if there is a similar psychology in finance.

I work in tech and early on I struggled a lot with the long term implications. It is beautiful and terrifying. I concluded the outcome depends on our species, which isn't such a heart warming experience. Perhaps the collapse in the energy complex is natures balance.

Your anecdotes are my favorite on ZH. I work with old ladies who go nuts about SS. I advise them to read your columns and invite me to their offices to discuss. So far, to my amazement, it worked out well. They know and they want to know more. They are more concerned about what to do.

Go nuts on the SS stuff. I got you an audience of two. LOL!

Maybe I don't have it figured out.

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 06:26 | 2924971 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

I got very excited about video. Bought editing software. Practiced using it. I even bought a camera and tripod so I could do "on camera" stuff.

I did a few pieces, and they were shit, I admit it. The reception from the likes of you got me to rethink the whole process. I have not done a video in six months now.

So do I listen to readers? You bet. I'm not done with video yet. I think it is the future of the blog world. But for now, I'll stick with the keyboard.

Tks for the help with the old ladies. I need all the readers I can get. One of the ladies contacted me, asking for advice. I told her how to set up a secret Swiss Bank account and cheat on her taxes. She will be trading only the short side of stocks from now on, and has dumped her entire bond portfolio. She's loaded to the gills with PMs thanks to me.

Progress.....

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 21:31 | 2926435 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

"loaded to the gills with PMs...."

 

That was really great advice to her. I stumbled upon all this PM stuff back in 2007 when I started reading Schiff, Andrew Gauss and other books geared toward economics. Instead of buying a house which seemed massively overpriced I bought GLD and later SLV. Later I added GOOG and AAPL.

Needless to say, it was the best decision in myu life. All these (GLD, SLV, GOOG, AAPL) are up over 250% while house values have tumbled and are still falling.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 18:08 | 2925987 bilejones
bilejones's picture

 I told her how to set up a secret Swiss Bank account and cheat on her taxes. She will be trading only the short side of stocks from now on, and has dumped her entire bond portfolio. She's loaded to the gills with PMs thanks to me.

 

Wow!  Michelle's a client?

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 14:39 | 2925563 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i read every article too, asshole that i am. i did read an article that allows those who own mining equity plays in gold to paid in physical for holding their shares. i also just saw a chart purporting to show how much gold has been brought out of the ground ytd. while i wouldn't say "dumping the whole bond portfolio" is such a bad idea...there are tax issues involved...something that only gets more complicated come post election time.

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 03:40 | 2924919 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

On killing is the best non-fiction book ever written bar none. Seriously, love that book.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 21:16 | 2924684 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

Nice post.  I also look forward to Bruce's insights and anecdotes, even if it's a topic that doesn't particularly interest me (e.g. bond markets).  It's always worth the read, and it always ends up interesting, so thanks for your insights, Bruce, and try to stay dry these next couple days.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 19:59 | 2924589 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture
Bubonic plague bitchez.
Sat, 10/27/2012 - 19:42 | 2924562 Lucius Corneliu...
Lucius Cornelius Sulla's picture

Most of the rats remain in the financial towers year round.  

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 19:38 | 2924558 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

You can eat rats, if you have to. 85 IQ people ? Not even - they are composed of toxic waste masquerading as " food ".

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 04:46 | 2924943 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Long drowned Rats:

 

Cambodia exports about a metric ton of rats daily to Vietnam as food.

Poor struggle as rat meat prices soar

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 19:36 | 2924553 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

Must watch. Rain drops.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 19:07 | 2924526 Stud Duck
Stud Duck's picture

The east coast people will be just like the Miami cubans after this one, mention hurricane and they will stampeed out of the city  like a herd of scared sheep when the next storm hits.

Good luck you NYC citizens, you are going to need it! 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 11:23 | 2925197 Louie the Dog
Louie the Dog's picture

Really?  Most of us here don't even put up shutters for a Cat1 much less "stampeed out of the city".

 

Sun, 10/28/2012 - 15:57 | 2925738 Big Corked Boots
Big Corked Boots's picture

Most Nu Yawkers' knowlege of nature is limited to whatever the Enironmental Defense Fund's newsletter tells them.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 18:59 | 2924523 Stud Duck
Stud Duck's picture

Be sure to tell Detective T. Bologna to take his umbrella along with his pepper spray to work next Monday!

I hope that rat drowns with the rest of the rats!

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 18:17 | 2924474 Heyoka Bianco
Heyoka Bianco's picture

Fuck New York too.

Maybe someday a real rain will come and wash all this scum off the streets . . .

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 17:59 | 2924436 LMAO
LMAO's picture

"The rain stopped and the flooding abated. The rats on the street followed the receding water back into their holes"

And the receding water revealed that the holdings of physical gold kept for safekeeping on behalf of Germany, The Netherlands etc. had been swept away from the vaults of Nu Yawk.

Another mystery solved in the process.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 17:29 | 2924390 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Go long on fifth floor Manhattan apartments.

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 17:16 | 2924367 petolo
petolo's picture

With electricity  out, the rabble will have a great time filling their swag bags. I am sure the guards will  be out in full force but they will never stop the ravishing hordes intent on getting their due. I hope they know where the banks and the Fed are. Could someone put some maps on Facelift?

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 21:14 | 2924681 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Zombieland- the Prequel

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 21:14 | 2924680 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Zombieland- the Prequel

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 15:58 | 2924217 Earl of Chiswick
Earl of Chiswick's picture

let me take a wild guess

 

the Dow closed at 910 that day

Sat, 10/27/2012 - 16:57 | 2924342 Offthebeach
Offthebeach's picture

Those weren't rats. They were the Black Asian Burrow Squirrels.

Taste like chicken.

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