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Too Much Rain Will Kill Ya
The farmers have a saying:
A drought will scare you to death, too much rain will kill ya.
As of noon on Saturday, there are still two different forecasts for where Sandy is going to hit. It makes a very big difference which model is right.
The Euro model has the storm making landfall south of New Jersey. The US GFS model has it 150 miles north:
The northeast side of the storm will suffer the most, so the US GFS forecast is about the worse news NYC could get.
NOAA is currently using the Euro model in its estimates where the storm will hit. NOAA is also providing estimates on rainfall associated with this storm. Consider this:
That ugly brown patch (11.57 inches) over the Delmarva Peninsula is a disaster in the making. Twelve hours ago NOAA forecast was for an incredible 14+ inches of rain.
Combine a worst case outcome of the Euro landfall forecast and the NOAA estimate for rainfall of 10+ inches north of landfall (NYC). The outcome would be far worse than the 4.4 inches that NYC got a year ago with Irene.
This storm is without precedent, and its still unpredictable. Let’s hope the 30 odd million folks in the metro area don’t get the worst-case hit. NYC would drown if it did. There is the potential to blow out the historical rainfall record for Central Park.
++
Note:
My first week on Wall Street was in August of 1973. I was newbie to NYC. My office was on the south side of 100 Wall, on the second floor, looking out over Front Street.
There was a tremendous thunderstorm one afternoon. I looked out the window as the street filled with water. The flood poured into a street gutter and overwhelmed it.
With the gutter flooded, the rats were drowning. They came out of every hole. In twenty minutes, 500 came out of the one gutter I was watching.
The rain stopped and the flooding abated. The rats on the street followed the receding water back into their holes.
A memorable first impression of life in the financial district.
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Another one with insufficient knowledge of even the most fundamental concepts of physics (e.g. conservation of energy).
The evaporation rate is really high in NYC. At least they've got that goin' for 'em.
One can shatter mountains and move continental plates when you tweak the mass at its resonant frequency at just the right place.
Soooooo many people poo poo this stuff...
Just so happens when coincidences continue to mount, time after time, anecdotal evidence become statistical fact and....
You know where I'm coming from...
Perhaps this link will be of more immediate use to people:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201218_5day.html
I remember agnes in 72. Snakes were hanging all over the farmers fences along the Shenandoah river.
I have never seen so many snakes in my life!
I also remember Agnes. Went to DC on a train and when it went over a bridge somewhere the water was so high that it looked like the tracks were laid upon the water's surface. Kind of cool and scary for a nine year old.
That was the last time I saw 28 cent per gal gas, on my way out of dc headin north.
And in Iowa where I live the NOAA claims (and I believe em') we need at least 14" of rain just to get our lakes and rivers back to normal height and flow rate. My brother-in-law who usually averages around 190 bushel corn only made 50. Weird year.
Mason City?
Be sure to try the little old steakhouse near the cement plant in Mason City
The States water authority said my area received 30" of rain between June 22 and July 23. Our lakes have some water in them but still not back to 2000 levels. We are way over normal rainfaills but it can't compensate for the overpumping for the Tampa market and all the F'in golf courses...
"...can't compensate for the overpumping for the Tampa market..."
Same thing on the other coast.
"The rats on the street followed the receding water back into their holes."
On Wall Street they go back up the elevator.
"Pentagram Suite please...er, I meant Penthouse..."
We can tell the Germans their gold got washed into the sewers of New York City when the NY Feds basement flooded.
Maybe they'll wisen up and keep it safe in their boats like ZHer's do...oh wait...
What about his holiness, the Midget Mayor? Has the 4,000 member Tactical Rescue Special Forces Strike Delta Police Unit( Abn.) been placed on double triple overtime duty to evacuate( so true ) Mayor Flauntleroy to his jet to London?
When you're 5'2", drowning is a concern.
The pocket-Stalin's estate is on an island in the Carib.
Tell them the rats ate the gold--they won't be surprised.
Does Tungsten oxidize?
Only above 400 C. Of couse one can't be certain what temperature it experiences so close to one of the portals of hell.
LOL! Abandon hope all ye who sign up. There are a few good hearted souls still functioning downtown, but the rats rule.
Perfect reason for DHS to close down the FED for good.
Gonna be a wet week.
Great Wall Street (4 legged) rat story Bruce.
Bruce,
Storm without precedence, really?
Maybe with the caveats:
1) for rainfall totals in New York City (one tiny part of even New England, let alone North America)
2) for last 150 years (ignoring New England was settled by Europeans around 400 years ago and has been inhabited by man for 15000 years)
This will probably be a destructive storm that people in affected areas should take seriously but it will not equal the destructive force of many storms in New England in living memory (1938 and 1954, for two example).
Nature is destructive frequently, and very destructive occasionally. This is just how the world is.
i did survive the Snopacalype that hit Maryland a few years back. Having grown up in a snow belt to say "i've never seen anything like that" was an eye opener. i'll believe the seriousness of this storm when i see it. i understand the possibilities of storm surge...i'm just not convinced that a Cat 1 can do as much damage as the excitable set is convincing themselves it can. (and yes, i'm part of that set too.) we shall see.
This is the new weather, the future of fall storms. And our politicians want to grow into this environment? The pain of the debt hangover increases with this new weather.
they can pay the debt down using the increased sales-tax receipts from people buying new windows.
A new twist on the old "broken window" theory.
Nyet, tovarich, please cure your anal-cranial inversion at the soonest moment.
I've actually been going out of my way to avoid this nonsense being instilled in my boy. He's 3, so his questions are on the order of "why can't we break the TV?", but I try to make it clear that if we have to spend money to fix the TV or buy a new one, then we won't have money for "cookies and beer". Whenever he accidentally breaks something, I point out that we "can't have cookies now" or "there goes Dad's beer!" and it seems to have resonated with the little guy.
Other than obvious stuff like TANSTAAFL, what other basic economics lessons should kids learn early?
for mine (6 and 11)
1) pick up after yourself (don't externalize costs and aim for self sufficiency)
2) its only yours if you earn it (property rights are one foundation of freedom)
3) sharing is fine if you can come to agreement on terms - but sharing is not a fixed rule (individuals in commerce by agreement for mutual benefit, without compulsion)
lots of day by day lessons, but mostly based on principles put into terms that make sense to 6 and 11 year old minds. i like this as an explanation for foundation principles.
http://www.isil.org/resources/introduction.html
my wife and i have lengthy discussions about spiritual values, how politics and morals intersect, etc - she's becoming convinced that for our children, this is among the most important aspects of their education. interesting times - if we weren't approaching this crisis of an age, i don't think we'd have such an amazing opportunity or motivation to educate ourselves as we are doing right here on ZH.
i'm glad to see this question asked now and again.
5 reasons why Sandy is expected to be a superstorm
http://www.myfoxphilly.com/story/19931190/5-reasons-why-sandy-is-expected-to-be-a-superstorm
http://www.nrc.gov/info-finder/reactor/
“Most people don't believe something can happen until it already has. That's not stupidity or weakness, that's just human nature.”
Irene refugee
http://i.imgur.com/uEQeD.jpg
Euro model has been more accurate so look out Baltimore and Philadelphia.
Kiss the Delmarva Penisula good bye and all those beach houses on Delaware and New Jersey beaches will be history.
We're bracing ourselves for some bad shit in Philly. Those who live in flood-prone areas are scrambling mad to protect themselves and their loved ones.
I think the guys at the BLS also do the predictions on the GFS model. I'm guessing this means NYC is fooked.
If it was the BLS, then the only folks who need to worry live near the Cliffs of Dover.
Best quote so far KJ.
This means that the storm will be making landfall south of New Jersey and 1 week later it will be revised 150 miles further north in true BLS fashion.
Where's the GFS rainfall map?
The rats might be on the street for few days.... if Sandy sits on the big apple and rotates as some predict.
No civil in authority anymore.
It looks like the banksters will be driven out of their rat holes when Sandy hits the Big Apple.
Now all we need to do is seal off the exits!
I had to give a five dot for the rat drawing at the end.
Banksy.