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Flawed Poll Models Underestimating Romney’s Lead
This is an interesting review of election surveys by Russ Winter. In my (limited) sphere, hardly anyone is happy about either candidate. Bigger questions seem to be: Should I bother voting against the one I dislike most? Which one is that? ~ Ilene
Flawed Poll Models Underestimating Romney’s Lead
Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner
Partisans on both sides have been making claims of a lead in the polls — the Republicans cite the national polls and the Democrats the state. I’m not a partisan or a Romney supporter, but I feel compelled to argue that the poll models are flawed and underestimating Romney’s lead.
As far as modeling in these polls, the example of Marist and Mason-Dixon in Florida is illustrative of skewing. Marist tends to report big Obama leads, and M-D has reported decent Romney results.
From the Tampa Bay Herald: “Mason-Dixon, which has been polling in Florida for 28 years, uses a survey sample based on people’s voter actual registration to match the electorate in Florida, while Marist uses a sample based on whether people say they consider themselves a Republican, Democrat or independent. About 20 percent of the likely voters in the Marist poll were Hispanic, while 13 percent were Hispanic in the Mason-Dixon poll, more in line with the Florida voting patterns.”
Nationally, Pew Research illustrates Obama’s problem, as does a new Washington Post poll. The first Pew chart shows Romney’s strong supporters exploding in October, once he showed up at the debates appearing to be a moderate. Right now, each candidate has about the same level of strong supporters..
However, the badly flawed state polls don’t show that 5 percent fewer strong Obama supporters are more likely to vote than among Romney’s base.
Obama’s problem is even worse among leaning Democrats. This support, as I have predicted, hasn’t materialized. Only 62% of Democrats and Dem leaners were likely to vote or even registered to vote, and figure that hasn’t budged since September. That’s the real knockout blow for Obama.
Meanwhile, GOP and GOP leaners likely to vote have risen from 69% in September to 76% this month, which is a big 14% spread over Dems. This suggests that Dem leaners could be over counted in these polls relative to Republican leaners.
The Washington Post/ABC poll considers “partisan independents,” for which the gap is 8 percent Republican. Of Republican-leaning independents, 92 percent say they plan to support Romney, while 84 percent of Democratic-leaning independents are backing Obama.
The less partisan the voter, the worse outcome for Obama. When tracked for likely independent voters (including true independents), the Washington Post poll reveals an even more disastrous scenario for Obama. In the Post’s last three polls, Obama trailed Romney among independent voters by a range of 16 to 20 percent. That’s a striking reversal since 2008, when Obama won independent voters (who were 29 percent of the electorate) by 8 points over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Another poll NPR gives Romney a 50-37 lead among independent voters definitely or probably going to vote.
Finally, Obama has lost considerable support among two groups of likely voters: whites and seniors. In 2008, Obama trailed among white voters by 12% over McCain. This election, it’s 20%. It’s even worse among voters over 65. Obama trailed seniors 8 percent in 2008 and lags 19 percent today, according to the Pew poll. Obama has overwhelming support among black voters, but turnout is expected to drop to 59 percent this year, compared to the record breaking 65% in the last election. Among more unlikely voters ages 18-29, Obama has lost 13% of his margin since 2008, and can expect a much lower turnout to boot.
Purple Strategies (PS) illustrates some of the skewing issues with the state polls. It gives Ohio to Obama by 2 percent and Colorado to Obama by 1 percent. However, the PS independent-vote tally doesn’t square with the Post/ABC at all. PS labels 32 percent of Colorado voters as “independent” and surveyed a 42-42 split between Obama-Romney. They label 38 percent of Ohio voters as independent and gave those votes to Romney, 42-40. Yet, as mentioned before, the Post/ABC poll has consistently scored independents as favoring Romney, 16-20. PS used a 34(D)-33(R) sample in their registered-voter split, yet there are 837,732 active registered Republicans and 739,778 active registered Democrats in Colorado.
Further, even if the PS assessment is correct or even close, the likelihood of an Obama-leaning independent showing up to vote is much less likely than a Romney-leaning independent. Among all registered voters, 69 percent of Republican-leaning independents say they are following the election closely, while just 49 percent of Democratic-leaning independents say the same. Among “pure” independents, 41 percent say they are closely following the election.
Democrat-voter registration is down in many key battleground states, and there has been a big increase in Independents — even more so than Republicans. In Ohio, about 7.9 million people are registered to vote in Ohio for the November election. That’s down from about 8.2 million registered to vote in 2008. In Cuyahoga County alone (a Obama hotbed in 2008) , there are about 80,000 fewer registered voters than there were four years ago.
The Gravis poll in Iowa identifies its sample as 41 percent Democrats, 35 percent Republicans and only 24 percent Independent. The Dems and Reps surveyed said they were voting along party lines, while the Indies favored Romney 48-36, or 12 points. Because of the Dem-skew in the survey’s sample, Gravis gives Iowa to Obama by 4 points. Current Iowa voter registration figures show 35 percent are registered Independent, 33 percent GOP and 32 percent Democrat.
Even a more balanced national poll like IBD/TIPP, which gives Obama a 1.4% lead, shows a heavy 38-31 Dem skew in their sample that’s almost along the lines of the 2008 vote. The reason Romney is close is that the poll scores the Independent vote fairly high at 32 percent, although the 8-percent spread to Romney is lower than with other polls. The poll’s details: Sample size reflects 942 likely voters, who were identified from 1,091 registered voters with a party affiliation of 38 percent Democrat, 31 percent GOP and 32 percent Independent.
In sum, my election prediction is a 3-percent edge for Romney in the popular vote, and 301 to 237 lead in the electoral vote (see second to last chart) — and that’s giving Obama’s battleground-state ground-game strategy considerable credit for getting leaners into the voting booth. I project Pennsylvania will be close, with the outcome dependent on whether the 828,000 people without power get services restored before the election. Michigan may be closer than generally believed. Gasoline should be spiking by Election Day, which could psychologically effect voter outcome. Turn out nationally will be 6 percent below 2008 levels.
A Romney outcome would be perfectly consistent with Europe, where incumbents are booted out and replaced with new incumbents, who quickly become unpopular. Romney will have a huge mess on his hands.
This final chart shows national polls that are more accurately skewed and show a small Romney lead.
For additional analysis on this topic and related trades subscribe to Russ Winter's Actionable – risk free for 30 days.The subscription fee is $69 per quarter and helps support Russ.s work on your behalf. Click here for more information.
Copyright © 2012 The Wall Street Examiner. All Rights Reserved. The above may be reposted with attribution and a prominent link to The Wall Street Examiner.
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I couldn't care less who wins.
I couldn't care even less than you couldn't care --- the results of this farcical so-called "election" will be as meaningless to me as the outcome of the soccer match between the grade-school teams of Elementary Schools #4 and #7 in Bogota, Columbia.
Sports hold no interest for me but at least local sports have the familial factor working in their favor. When you get to college level or the pros it's just a bunch of hired guns not a home team.
Now now, futball is serious business..... :)
The real problem is that it doesn't matter who wins. Obama has proven beyond doubt who owns and operates this government and guess what...it's not "We the People". Just two wings of the same bird of prey. Either way the banks win, the military industrial complex wins...we lose. Its pathetic.
"Either way the banks win, the military industrial complex wins, the welfare queens win ...we lose."
There! Fixed it for you!!
One must not forget that there is one thing you can do after you have died - Vote!
Only if you are a democrat.
And pay taxes. "Declare the pennies on your eyes."
+1for reference to great "Revolver" album reference. I think their best.
Revolver is the one. For consistently top notch tunes I also like With the Beatles, A Hard Day's Night and Rubber Soul. There was a time when the Beatles could do no wrong.
If the models are flawed, then you can make a lot a money by Tuesday night. You can buy Romeny at intrade currently at 33.5 cents and make a dollar if he wins. Or you can short Obama at 66.3 cents and keep all that money as he loses.
http://www.intrade.com/v4/misc/scoreboard/
However, the Princeton Election Consortium has Obama winning - so making a winning bet may not be so simple:
http://election.princeton.edu/
I've been trading futures & options since 1994 and dabbling at InTrade since 2000. All I will say is their markets have been very different during this election cycle.
gibbs - Interesting that the London based odds (which will take any amount of wager, Intrade limits wagers to $500.00), also have Obama at 1/4 odds, Romney at 11/4.
This maybe the first time that the Ldn punters have been so wrong. On the other hand...maybe the Illerati have driven the markets one way for a reason....
Brits are never wrong! :)
Joking aside, nothing I follow supports the InTrade or IEM numbers - not unlike most of the recent economic reports which have had "better than expected" headline numbers with horrible internals.
Brit bookies are rarely wrong.
And the Princeton Election Consortium has what relationship to Krugman?
Short Ruger, Smith&Wesson.
Long Peabody Coal.
the coal stocks are the real poll.
New info, since the article was written 48 hours ago.
As of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.
I've been suggesting a +1 or +2 Dem skew in the BG states, but Gallup hinted at the partisan makeup of the 2012 electorate with a small chart buried at the end of its daily tracking report. Based on all its October polling, Gallup suggested that this year's turnout might be 36% Republican to 35% Democratic, compared with 39% Democratic and 29% Republican in 2008.Also Gallup produced a poll showing turnout may not completely collapse. It will be well down, but not a disaster for Obama. As a result I moved my own national popular vote guess from +3 Romney to +2.
Romney will win PA also.
Dont mess with the Chick Fil A crowd.
Clinging to guns and religion, except in Philly where it's just guns
Actually more guns outside of Philly,most,not all of the time,used for hunting/self defense.They don't call it Pennsyltuckey for nothing.
Obama In a landslide. Takes OHIO and PA.
Geez, maybe I should become a political pundit. 8 downratings. Are you kidding me? Who didn't see this coming?
Real Man-Date
I expect nothing less from a voter for hope and change.
assumption: wrong
YAWN.
Yep. Although I have zero problem's with polygamy! :)
On the Muslim vs the Mormon
We know Obama is a Presidential criminal and that we can expect nothing more from him
But what if ... just what if ... there really is a secret Mormon conspiracy, dating back to when the Mormons themselves were targeted by the US gov't as a polygamous 'terra-rist' sect in the 1800s, and the US forced them to submit to the American empire
There is an old legend that when America finally goes to sh*t (arguably right now), a Mormon will ride in 'on a white horse' to restore human rights and the liberties of the Constitution and Bill of Rights ...
Could Romney be that secret conspiracy saviour of legend? ... Could it be, that Romney has merely spent his life posing for decades as an oligarch criminal, while secretly he has always been a part of the Deep Hidden Mormon Conspiracy, preparing for just this moment in world history...
And instead of a white horse as in the legend, this Mormon will ride into town in a white estate car (station wagon) with Seamus on the roof?
Of course I highly doubt Romney is secretly a deep-Mormon-conspiracy and pro-US-Constitution man ... but we can 'hope' for something other than 'chains' in America, can't we?
".. but we can 'hope' for something other than 'chains' in America, can't we?"
Hope and Chains??
I prefer the hope we get with Romney than the change we got with Obama
I want to know Romney's views on alcohol.
No, it is not possible that Romney is an anarchist, libertarian, classical liberal, or any other form of individualist. What you call "hope" is actually "self-delusion". That kind of "hope" is available in unlimited quantities for both republicans and democrats.
I'm hoping to see the 'seer' stones.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seer_stone_%28Latter_Day_Saints%29
If Mitt has access to them (and $2MM a year in donations says he does) it could give America the edge it desparately needs to get out of this mess,
They don't work nearly as well as the Diebold stones.
... and I didn't junk that.
Tagg, you're it!
<- Ann's hair
<- Michelle's hair
Fuckin. Racists!! (didn't vote ... but give you +1 for poll)
Precious?
You better give me back my dog!
I voted for Michelle's hair.. well.. it reminds me of Marge!
Head, armpit or back?
I think Chewbacca probably has some nasty hairy spots...all wiry and everything. At least Robo-Ann would be blonde and fluffy
Sorry, I'm in a funny mood today
If you can't say something nice...
Snorted beer out my nose, and I don't even like beer.
Everyone I've mentioned this to has agreed with me. These phonies are what they are, but as long as I don't have to look at Michelle's mug ever again, it's almost worth it for a Romney win. Almost. I also tend to think there will be a sooner rather than later BO/MO divorce and we will be lucky to even hear about it since this man-in-lieu of a president is the most covered for and covered up man in American political history. But then again if she is anything like Hitlary, she'll ride the tide and work it to her plus. I will admit, I'll be jealous of their soon to be new digs in HI.
There's too much money being an ex-president & spouse. If Hillary didn't dump Bill, there's just no possibility of Michelle dumping Barry. And it's not like Barry is hanging out at Scores and banging interns - not that we know of anyway.
She didn't dump Bill because it has always been an arrangement. Hillary and Bill are running shit with their pal Marc Rich.
Where are these idiot ZH readers coming from?
And who the fuck actually thinks these guys are elected? Who ever wins isn't going to be because some "seniors changed" their minds or some "democrats" staid home. Come on! How do you not call bullshit yourself as you right this crap?
Presidents are left to chance and your vote really matters, riiight...
+ eleventy.
barry's tastes tend more towards 'man country' in chicago...