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Split Vote?

Bruce Krasting's picture




 

 

 

If you live in NY State, your vote doesn’t matter a damn. Obama will take NY walking away. The same is true for California and Illinois. If you’re in those states, and like Mitt Romney, you might as well stay home on Tuesday; your vote is a waste of time.­ If you live in Texas or Arizona, and you think Obama deserves another four years, forget it; your vote’s a throw away.

 

There are few states where it will make a difference, but at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what happens in Ohio. Once again, Ohio will determine who is going to be running the show for the next four years. That’s crazy.

 

Ohio:

 

State Population = 11.5mm - 3% of US total

State GDP = $500Bn - 3.7% of US total

 

 

 

Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a difference. I supported his campaign with contributions. I carried his petitions during the primary. I got the vote out on Election Day. It’s hard to describe how disappointed I am. There is no way I’m going to vote for Obama again. But that doesn’t matter; I live in NY. I’m a protest voter for Romney. I'm voting knowing full well that the electoral votes in my state are going to Obama. Say I’m not alone. Now add in Sandy.

 

There are a large number of people who are displaced in one way or another in the northeast. The dislocations that the storm caused will have an influence on voter turnout in the region. Add into the mix, another weather problem. The same area that was hit with Sandy, is going get a Nor-easter on Wednesday. The talk from the weather guys is for 3-4 inches of rain, and more wind. After getting crushed by Sandy a week ago, many people will spend Tuesday worrying about storm preparation. They won’t be thinking of voting.

There are a hell of a lot of Democrats in NJ, NY and Ct. that might just stay away on Tuesday. I don’t think it will change anything as far as the electoral votes go. The states hit by Sandy (and the ones in the way of the next blow) will still end up with electoral ballots going to Obama. But I wonder if this combination of events will have a consequence on the (unimportant) popular vote.

 

It would not be unique if the electoral votes ended up different than the popular vote. That has happened in 1824, 1876, 1888 and of course, the big one in 2000 when Gore got 536,000 more votes than Bush.

 

With all this in mind, my election forecast:

 

- Obama will win the Electoral College (it will be close, but no tie).

 

- Romney will win the popular vote by more than 500K (the “Sandy Factor” will keep traditional NE Democratic voters at home).

 

- Ohio will prove to be the determining factor for the Electoral vote. The Ohio result will be very close. There will be recounts. There will be challenges. There will be questions raised about write-in ballots. (See report from Citi on this: Link)

 

 

- It will take two weeks+ to resolve the election of 2012.

 

If the election plays out along these lines, the opportunity for post-election compromise will be lost. In this scenario, the most likely outcome is that nothing happens, and the country falls off the fiscal cliff.

 

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Tue, 11/06/2012 - 18:36 | 2953385 mackeyreport
mackeyreport's picture

Um why did you bother voting

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 13:20 | 2949004 TAfool
TAfool's picture

So let me get this straight. If I go to the county fair and they have an ice cream contest with chocolate, vanilla, moose tracks and fudge swirl I should only vote for chocolate or vanilla because otherwise I'm throwing my vote away?

 

Anybody that says "you are throwing your vote away" is a DUMBASS and should NEVER be listened to. The system works by casting YOUR vote for whom YOU want. I don't want chocolate and I don't want vanilla. I'm voting for moose tracks and will not apologize for that vote. Ever.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 12:16 | 2948802 GubbermintWorker
GubbermintWorker's picture

Election day? I thought November 6 was National Buy a Gun Day??

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 12:07 | 2948774 Jim in MN
Jim in MN's picture

Obama was unknown enough that he COULD have picked an interesting senior finance/economics team during the height of the financial crisis.

But of course we all know how that turned out.

McCain meanwhile was a known crook in so deep that one barely knew where he had sunk beneath the surface by the occassional bubble popping.

So please save the carping.  It makes you look like idiots.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:48 | 2948686 Winston Smith 2009
Winston Smith 2009's picture

"Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a difference."

From one of the greatest intellects of our time - "Fool me once, shame on ... shame on you. Fool me... You can't get fooled again!"

Yet, people do get fooled over and over and over and over again.  At least Romney waited until the last few weeks of his campaign to use the rightfully totally discredited bullshit phrase "real change."

Anyone who still believes that there will EVER be "real change" from either of the campaign donation owned major parties is a complete and total idiot.

 

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:36 | 2948637 crzyhun
crzyhun's picture

Poor Bruce, you should've been brighter! This is how the Bolshies won in all the other countries, they appealed to the intellectuals!

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:32 | 2948624 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Just flip a coin [ http://www.random.org/coins/?num=1&cur=60-usd.5000c-gold-buffalo ] and get this erection over with.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:05 | 2948515 moneybots
moneybots's picture

No, Ohio is not determining who is going to be President.  Every voter is.  The sum is the whole of its parts, not the sum of of one part.

A California voter who votes for Romney is not throwing their vote away.  Nor is an Obama voter in Texas.  By such a  false reckoning, with an alleged near tie going into electon day, virtuallyhalf the people in the country are throwing their vote away.

By such a false reckoning, people should wait for the early exit polling results then go out and vote for the person who is ahead, whether they like the person or not, to ensure they are not throwing their vote away by voting for the loser.

 

I am voting third party.  I am guanteed to vote for the loser.  But i am not throwing my vote away.  I would be throwing my vote away, by voting for either of the two people who have the chance to win.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:04 | 2948510 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

Good article Bruce, but I think you underestimate the number of citizens who like you, and I, vigorously supported obummer only to learn that he is just another shit talking, two faced, lying weasel fucker. In other words, a typical politician. He is indeed an impressive speaker, but that just makes him more dangerous. I bought his shit hook line and sinker and will NEVER make that mistake again (I hope anyway). The problem was that GW had created a perfect environment for bambam's shit spew to land and take root. Very sad, but this time is indeed different. That obuthole is a peerless liar is now common knowledge. I think many voters, like me, will stay away from the polling sites this time around, because the sting from the betrayel by obiteme is still too fresh. I absolutely will not vote for Romney. Voting also tends to lend credibility to our two party system, when in reality, none exsists. I will protest by just saying no to participating in the rigged game. I think many others that voted for obumpy will do likewise and Romney will win by a surprising margin.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 20:35 | 2950393 MickV
MickV's picture

Your stupidity is on display for all the world to see. That you or Bruce could not see the Usurper as the destroyer of America is very damning.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:42 | 2948283 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

The American Red Cross is a fraud. DO NOT DONATE!

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:19 | 2948216 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

Naw, I think it's status quo ante. Obama wins the presidency with over 300 electoral votes and about a 1.5% - 2% popular vote majority (I think we are up to 6 different poll aggregators that have converged on this). Republicans retain the House, Democrats the Senate. $6 billion spent to accomplish absolutely nothing.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:17 | 2948209 MickV
MickV's picture

What an idiot Krasting is. Obama and his minions caused the whole crisis on purpose (not that the Rs are much better), so your thinking that he might make things better is ridiculous. Plus he is NOT ELIGIBLE. He was born British of a British subject Kenyan father.

He knows he is not eligible, and so does all of congress. They want it that way so that there is no Constitution-- when the POTUS, who is the executor of the laws is ineligible, then there is no Constitution and no law. It is tyranny. They took your sovereignty while you were looking down at your Apple Chinese slave made Iphone. Get a clue.

The Republic can be restored only by the realization of Obama's Usurpation, which was done INTENTIONALLY to absolve the Republic by the criminal banker/politician class, under cover of the useful idiot media and judiciary. The blood of tyrants and patriots will be needed.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 11:13 | 2948537 Toolshed
Toolshed's picture

MickV your stupidity is absolutely breathtaking. Krasting's article demonstrates a level of thoughtfulness that you, clearly, are unable of achieving or understanding. The tripe you are spewing has been recycled soooooo many times now that only a utter idiot, like you, would bring it up.  Shouldn't you be attending a skin head survivalist training seminar in Mississippi or something.?

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 20:32 | 2950379 MickV
MickV's picture

Read Federalist #68. An "improper ascendant" (improper ancestor") should be eschewed in order that that the chief magistrate be a "child of their own" (natural born Citizen). It is not possible that a natural born Citizen is the British born scion of a British subject Kenyan father. He is certainly not a child of our own, and has already demonstrated many times his lack of allegiance and attachment.

 

"The Constitution does not in words say who shall be natural-born citizens. Resort must be had elsewhere to ascertain that. At common law, with the nomenclature of which the framers of the Constitution were familiar, it was never doubted that all children born in a country of parents who were its citizens became themselves, upon their birth, citizens also. These were natives or natural-born citizens, as distinguished from aliens or foreigner". Minor v. Happersett, 88 US 162, 167

Foreign paternity voids eligibility for President since 1787 "at the ratification of the Constitution". Obama's birth was 174 years too late for the grandfather clause.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:47 | 2948166 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

If the Jew York media says it's a virtual tie, it's a Romney Romp.

Look at the crowds.  Obama can't draw anyone but his own paid hacks.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:17 | 2948138 Hannibal
Hannibal's picture

A protest vote is to Not vote (or vote 3rd party). I voted for NM Gary Johnson lib.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:12 | 2948133 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Jeez Bruce...

All that time spent driving around in a van to pick up the the drunks, crazies and the homeless to vote for Obama has come to naught.

Professional Dems know that registering the dead to vote, Chicago style, is much less labor intensive.

I feel your pain, bro.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 06:55 | 2948076 I am Jobe
I am Jobe's picture

Ah the Promise of Hope, only sheeples will believe in. As long as WMT accepts EBT who fucking cares.

Long Live 32 oz drinks, MCD , KP and PEP.

Christmas is gonna be ugly for very many. Buy  that Waffle Iron on sale

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 05:17 | 2948019 Leraconteur
Leraconteur's picture

This could be much worse than Bruce Krasting wrote.

North Dakota does not have voter registration. You show up with photo ID and you vote.

VA, FL, OH, NH, IA , MI, NC and CO are all very close and recounts will likely happen.

NY has a law that if fewer than 25% of RV vote, then the AG can extend the election window many days.

NE2 and ME2 can vote separately from their state.

CT, NJ and NY are all crushed under Sandy and the Nr' Easter and turnout may be very low.

Obama could lose the EC but win the PV. We get riots if that happens.

Obama could lose the EC and PV. We get riots.

The EC could tie. We get riots and it goes to Congress.

There are many ways this can go South.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 08:26 | 2948146 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

LOL.

Riots if Obama shits the bed...

Because one Black Friday a year isn't quite enough for his voter base.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 10:01 | 2948326 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

If Obama loses and riots ensue, the resulting destruction will stimulate the economy. Ergo, Obama must go. Besides, I'm tired of his lies. I need a fresh batch of lies to keep me going.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:35 | 2948257 10mm
10mm's picture

Riots,who the fuck cares.Cover your own asses,nuff said.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 05:03 | 2948014 Gringo Viejo
Gringo Viejo's picture

"We face a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness, the other to total extinction. Let us pray that we have the wisdom to choose wisely."

....Woody Allen

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 02:35 | 2947940 garyw
garyw's picture

I look  for another Haarp storm and a delay of the election followed by Martial Law. 

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:36 | 2948260 10mm
10mm's picture

2.0 earthquake in North Jersey reported.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 10:02 | 2948329 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

That was just Christie jumping up and down in frustration.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 01:56 | 2947914 are we there yet
are we there yet's picture

In Texas we are are confused as to why Obama is still popular with anyone. 4 more years of this is really bad.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 09:38 | 2948270 10mm
10mm's picture

That's why your Texas.Spend some time in LA,Chicago,Philly,NYC,St Louis,Alanta.Then your confusion will end.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 05:18 | 2948021 Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

Why is Romney popular with anyone?

This election pits satan against beelzebub.  Anyone who is enthusaistic has screws loose.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 01:36 | 2947887 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

" Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a differenc"....Sorry you are feckin' stupid...End of conversation.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 10:06 | 2948337 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

He made a significant difference. Between laws like NDAA and numerous executive decrees, Americans are less secure now than in 2008. And thanks to the Patriot Act, Americans were far less secure in 2008 than in 1988.

Look at everything that's gotten worse in the last 4 years. Obama has made an incredible difference.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 07:46 | 2948114 Fred C Dobbs
Fred C Dobbs's picture

No he isn't.  He just believed what a presidential candidate said.  The same thing can and will happen to your vote someday.  

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 04:35 | 2947997 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Hey, be cool Clowns...a lotta righties voted for O....

But Bruce, i have to ask....didn't YOU get a gander at O's economic "team" in the runup to '08?

Didn't that give you pause?

I sat out '08....Prolly will this time too.

Things must suck in NY for you guys right now.....

Count your blessings... maybe try to enjoy the historic surreality of it all if you can, eh?.

 

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:45 | 2947836 HoofHearted
HoofHearted's picture

Remember, remember, the fifth of November.

Where is V when we need him? Blowing up a building or two might make a difference on the 6th....

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 01:13 | 2947866 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Blowing up the election, in a manner of speaking, is what we need to do.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 01:36 | 2947886 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

What I don't get is that there is almost zero discussion of why the electoral college system is ridiculous

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 04:57 | 2948011 Geruda
Geruda's picture

The electoral question you are having difficulties getting is because the education you are having is not keeping you from being in ignorance.   You are not knowing the problems when the forefathers of America solved the problem they were having because little states were not having a chance to be voting when so many big states were outnumbering the peoples in their state.  If the voting of only popular vote was being counted a state like wyoming would not be having any way to be making a counting of votes be counting for them.  The thing that is being ridiculous is not the electoral system but the thing that is being ridiculous is the Americans who are not knowing why it is not ridiculous. It will be good when the mormon who lies and the man who lies about the running times of his running are having defeat to be understanding how bad they are.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 04:57 | 2948010 Geruda
Geruda's picture

The electoral question you are having difficulties getting is because the education you are having is not keeping you from being in ignorance.   You are not knowing the problems when the forefathers of America solved the problem they were having because little states were not having a chance to be voting when so many big states were outnumbering the peoples in their state.  If the voting of only popular vote was being counted a state like wyoming would not be having any way to be making a counting of votes be counting for them.  The thing that is being ridiculous is not the electoral system but the thing that is being ridiculous is the Americans who are not knowing why it is not ridiculous. It will be good when the mormon who lies and the man who lies about the running times of his running are having defeat to be understanding how bad they are.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:29 | 2947812 Essential Nexus
Essential Nexus's picture

4 years ago you voted for Obamney and now you plan to get back at Obamney by voting for Obamney?  Me no understand.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:24 | 2947803 AwkwardReader
AwkwardReader's picture

Let me see.  If I vote for Obama, I'll get more of the same but he's unlikely to cower toward Israel.

If I vote vor Romney, I'll get more of the same but he'll be long on Israeli schlongs.

Tough choice.

Think I'll sit this one out.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:20 | 2947792 oldman
oldman's picture

Bruce,

I do not understand how, after admitting last election's error, you can possibly be voting, with all of your intelligence STILL, for the lesser of two evils.

If you HAVE to vote, why not vote for a third party candidate and thereby make a real protest against the failed machine?

Your 'protest' against Obama with all of the 'mea culpa' and associated handwringing rings quite false to this oldman unless as you say, you are, indeed, quite stupid.

Please think about what the fuck you are doing so that those of vus who have more faith in you than you do yourself---will not have to read this same shitty apology two nights prior to the 2016 election.

Not to vote for the dude from NM or the locked up lady is equivalent of not voting for a third party candidate like Patrick Henry when this drama began over two hundred years ago.

Please put a little more thought behind you protest---mine is not to vote because I disenfranchised myself in 1980 for having voted for REAGAN!

Too stupid to vote is this old fool      om

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:18 | 2947784 DaylightWastingTime
DaylightWastingTime's picture

romney is the banker's choice based on them being his major contributors. romney will win because of this i think.

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:04 | 2947748 James
James's picture

In 17 the last 18 Presidential elections if the Washington Redskins won the last game before the election the incumbent pres won.

The Redskins lost today.

 

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 10:19 | 2948370 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

That's only slightly more accurate than the possiblility that the hair on a candidate's head is a determinant, especially in the age of TV.

Eisenhower over Stevenson. Ike had (marginally more hair).

JKF had better hair than Nixon.

LBJ had more than Goldwater.

Nixon had more than Humphrey or McGovern.

Carter had more than Ford.

Reagan had more than Carter. With Mondale it was closer (hairwise).

Dukakis had more hair than Bush I, but hid it under some stupid tanker hat.

Clintoon had more than Bush I or Dole.

Bush II had about the same as Gore, and Bush won by a hair. Kerry?

Obama had more than McCain (Palin's Big Hair didn't count).

Romney has more than Obama. Time will tell.

10 wins for more hair, 2 failures, 2 too close to call by my recollection. A trend?

Mon, 11/05/2012 - 00:05 | 2947762 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

Add to that- Cramer is picking Obama as a winner.

I wonder if Moodys will like a hung election.

Puts are still cheap. My SPY 137.5 weekly puts from last week are very cheap now LOL. Another week= another chance for a crash.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 23:53 | 2947744 Grand Supercycle
Grand Supercycle's picture

OBAMA WINS.

...says prediction markets.

http://stks.co/gESo

These daily charts are still breaking down & overdue sell off expected after Obama victory: SPX / CRUDE / COPPER / GOLD / SILVER / EURUSD / AUDUSD

USD will rally.

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 23:39 | 2947708 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

obama has the voters who still think hes the answer to bush. to those people i give you my deepest sympathies. romney is the better man, not that it makes much difference. well it does, though obama has learned not to show his animus toward the white race. he still has those chicago racketeering habits to shed, or not. frankly he is corrupt and venal as they come. he has the poor and downtrodden on his side, those poor saps. i would rather starve to death in a ditch than take a handout from the man, but i don't need to make that decision, so i cast my vote on their behalf. 

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 23:54 | 2947747 Whats that smell
Whats that smell's picture

Sure you would!

Sun, 11/04/2012 - 23:02 | 2947621 SmoothCoolSmoke
SmoothCoolSmoke's picture

R&R lose Tuesday.  Why?  Because of the Tea Party wingnuts like Akin and the guy in Indiana to name a few.  Romney has only closed the gap on Obama by sounding LESS wingnut on just about everything.  Ironically, the TP  wont see it that way.  They'll think they lost because they were not far enough t the right.  As a man once said: Stupid is as stupid does. 

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