This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Split Vote?
If you live in NY State, your vote doesn’t matter a damn. Obama will take NY walking away. The same is true for California and Illinois. If you’re in those states, and like Mitt Romney, you might as well stay home on Tuesday; your vote is a waste of time. If you live in Texas or Arizona, and you think Obama deserves another four years, forget it; your vote’s a throw away.
There are few states where it will make a difference, but at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what happens in Ohio. Once again, Ohio will determine who is going to be running the show for the next four years. That’s crazy.
Ohio:
State Population = 11.5mm - 3% of US total
State GDP = $500Bn - 3.7% of US total
Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a difference. I supported his campaign with contributions. I carried his petitions during the primary. I got the vote out on Election Day. It’s hard to describe how disappointed I am. There is no way I’m going to vote for Obama again. But that doesn’t matter; I live in NY. I’m a protest voter for Romney. I'm voting knowing full well that the electoral votes in my state are going to Obama. Say I’m not alone. Now add in Sandy.
There are a large number of people who are displaced in one way or another in the northeast. The dislocations that the storm caused will have an influence on voter turnout in the region. Add into the mix, another weather problem. The same area that was hit with Sandy, is going get a Nor-easter on Wednesday. The talk from the weather guys is for 3-4 inches of rain, and more wind. After getting crushed by Sandy a week ago, many people will spend Tuesday worrying about storm preparation. They won’t be thinking of voting.
There are a hell of a lot of Democrats in NJ, NY and Ct. that might just stay away on Tuesday. I don’t think it will change anything as far as the electoral votes go. The states hit by Sandy (and the ones in the way of the next blow) will still end up with electoral ballots going to Obama. But I wonder if this combination of events will have a consequence on the (unimportant) popular vote.
It would not be unique if the electoral votes ended up different than the popular vote. That has happened in 1824, 1876, 1888 and of course, the big one in 2000 when Gore got 536,000 more votes than Bush.
With all this in mind, my election forecast:
- Obama will win the Electoral College (it will be close, but no tie).
- Romney will win the popular vote by more than 500K (the “Sandy Factor” will keep traditional NE Democratic voters at home).
- Ohio will prove to be the determining factor for the Electoral vote. The Ohio result will be very close. There will be recounts. There will be challenges. There will be questions raised about write-in ballots. (See report from Citi on this: Link)
- It will take two weeks+ to resolve the election of 2012.
If the election plays out along these lines, the opportunity for post-election compromise will be lost. In this scenario, the most likely outcome is that nothing happens, and the country falls off the fiscal cliff.
»
- advertisements -
The sick twisted Axelrod has put a spell on the complicit media......BUT, Romney will run away with this election,both popular and electoral college. The college kids and blacks have lost interest. Everybody else wants to try something, ANYTHING different than the staus quo.
I hope Bozo and Biden enjoy each others' company in retirement. I never want to see or hear of them or that A-HOLE Axelrod ever again. What sick, twisted fucks we've had to deal with these past several months.
Doesn't really matter a damn who gets elected. Of the corporations, by the corporations, for the corporations. Choose your puppet glove.
Those hoping for a change under Obama got a dose of reality. He's a whore to corporations, particularly the financial sector, always was, always will be. Romney will be no different.
Hey liberal Obama apologist, your government can not deliever water, do you want them doing colonoscopies on you?
So what I've been feeling lately was only a colonoscopy?
@Stanley Lord
Please read the post again before ranting. You'll look less like an ass.
I don't care if anybody wins. It should not concern decent people.
It has nothing to do with communication, the Founding Fathers were affraid (and for good reason) of direct democracy.
How about this, there are more men than women voters in the USA, lets vote that any man can have sex with any woman anytime and lets vote on it. That is why you have an extra layer.
Look up "tyranny of the majority"
Sorry I've been clicking on the Romney ads to make ZH a little cash. You said?
This was such an awesome (in a sad way!) comment that I am sending it as an email to some naive ones I know. Hope ya don't mind!
Mit twists in the wind all the time, he is so inconsistent. How could anyone believe anything he says? BO sure ain't so great but is much more consistant and level headed.
I gotta say Mormons are too wierd for me.
Tedd K had Chappaquiddick
What about Mitt's French adventure?
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/17/1110907/-Mitt-Romney-s-Driving-...
So true. Love ZH but how can just about everyone not see how repulsive Romney is. He would say blue plus yellow make red if he thought it would get him votes. I persoanlly think he is patholgical in his lying but hope gold goes up. It is so over and it is so Obama.
Yo...wake up. BOTH of these turds are smelly., Obama lies more than Pinocchio on steroids.
BOTH of these motherfuckers are liars.
Fuck voting. A bunch of assclowns and very few....VERY few good people.
The whole system needs to be Tyler Durdened to the 10th power
Check this out:
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2012/11/01/romney-leaks-drugs-blood-diamond...
I have no way to verify this stuff, but it DOES make for some interesting reading!
(The author is "ex"-CIA.)
No one is "ex" CIA anymore than they are "ex" HIV positive. On 9/12/01 I watched an ex-CIA talking head on TV say how al Qaeda was bad but the real threat was Iraq and I told my family "we're going to invade Iraq". The Company doesn't just let you quit, you become their spokesman forever.
Yes, I KNOW that! Thus my putting it in quotations!
To believe or not believe Duff...that is a question that can never be answered, thanks to Operation Paperclip. Some of the allegations seem quite outlandish, but the more provable points, such as Bain and Romney's ties to Salinas and also Mossad are truly disturbing!
Don't take my comments as an endorsement of O. I am voting for neither, as they are BOTH the banksters/Zionists' choices! Oh, joy....
Agree stormsailor. It seems so obvious. Might not be any better but to vote for something you know will continue to fail and bring us closer to a third world country, I just do not get it.
haven't you noticed the continuum in amerikan figureheads since....?
Clinton, Bush, Obama....Romney?
notice a trend?
Bruce, why the hell do you still vote? It's a waste for anyone to vote in any state. Voting gives your consent. Imagine if they threw a vote and nobody came? They would start shaking in their Berluti's...
4 more years of this? how anyone could agree to that is way outside of my understanding.
The electoral college is an outdated idea that must go. We have instant communication now. It was created back when it took a week to get the numbers from California to Washington
Curt, the EC was created before OHIO was a state, let alone California. Hoo-boy.
exactly my point it is outdated, There is no reason that we can't use the popular vote now.
Sorry to inform you that the electoral college insures that all states have an equal voice in the election process. Otherwise only the most populated states would decide every election. Is it perfect? No, but it is more than adequate and has nothing to do with time traveling.
California has 55 votes
Colorado has 9 votes
South Dakota has 3 votes
Now how does that give each state an equal voice?
What level of public school did you get through?
4 years college, Accounting Degree, A student, You?
And with the college the most populus states get more votes, so it changes nothing.
If California votes votes 10 million red and 10 million and one blue the whole state votes blue.
Perhaps more people would vote if they didn't already know their state always cast the EC vote one way.
Bruce, very sorry for your situation. Many are truly suffering and I hope it gets at least tolerable for you soon. It will take months and months for normality to return to your area. My sympathies are with you, and thanks for all your posts, even now when it is still dark for you. And yes, I too voted for Obama in 2008. And I am a 40 year republican. Got all wrapped up in that "change" thing. And there was change all right, right down the toilet. So we are turning into a socialist state, day by day. Not what I brought my daughter into this world to witness. Within 6 months of the election I felt like a complete idiot that was part of a scam. But it is what it is. And yes, early voted for Romney, but again so what. He will not be any better and could be much worse. But the thought of another four years of utter complete failure by an incompetent president is more than I could take. At least with Romney we will have hope for......3 or 4 weeks before the SHTF> It really makes no difference. Just take a look at what is in Congress, we have NO hope.
An interesting observation. On the 31 of Oct. did our shopping at our local Walmart. About 6 PM> The store was empty, the shelves were stocked to the fullest. Everything was in order, plenty of food, staples, displays. I wondered, why is the store busting over with all kinds of goods. I asked an Asst. Manager. I said, I shop here a lot and I do not remember the isles so full of goods. What is going on? He looked at me with that forlorn look and advised, "well, you probably have not shopped on the last day of the month, because at midnight all of those on food stamps get there CC loaded up again and by 7AM this place is a madhouse with thousands of people who do not work or cannot work buying up eveything in the store. They even try to get away with liquor and cigarettes and it really slows down the line when the checker has to remove such items. We give them automatic food cards every month and do not even ask them any questions. And each month the crowds get bigger, they treat it like a party."
With that I checked out, left and felt that another piece of Amerika was gone.
And it makes such a difference who gets elected (falls off chair, laughing).
I'm not sure how so many people can still vote for Obama.
Under Obama, none of the lost jobs have been recovered.
There has been no recovery.
There has been only one point since Reagan took office in 1980 where a smaller percentage of the population has been employed, and that was at the bottom of the crash inherited by Reagan.
Obama and Reagan both inherited a crash.
Under Reagan, the lost jobs immediately started coming back, and they all came back ,and they came back even faster than they had fallen! Then a lot of new jobs were created at the same pace.
Whereas, under Obama, several years after the bottom, none of the lost jobs have come back.
What did Reagan do so differently than Obama?
Obama, Keynesians, Progressives, Democrats, Globalists, etc. (let’s just call them Progressives), claim that the only reason the Obama recovery isn’t stronger is because Obama must double down on the same policies. He must spend way more on economic stimulus, borrow way more from the Federal Reserve, hire more government employees, empower unions, raise taxes, regulate business even more, give even more bailouts, and make interest rates even lower.
Reagan did pretty much the opposite of Obama. Reagan’s recovery consisted of normal spending, higher interest rates, fewer government employees, less powerful unions, lower taxes, reduced regulation, and no bailouts.
Clearly, Obama’s policies are delaying recovery. There has been only one other point in history where government policies greatly delayed recovery, and it was the same Progressive policies being pursued by Progressives today.
Obama created 5.2 million job from December 2009 (bottom in jobs) 137.8 million to 143 million... at a cost of +$1.9 trillion on the FED balance sheet + $7 trillion in new federal debt = total cost : 8.9 trillion for 5.2 million jobs... or $1.7 million/job... and I'm not counting private debt, corporate debt, state debt and cities debt on top of that... because it would be much higher than $1.7 million/job...
In this scenario, the most likely outcome is that nothing happens, and the country falls off the fiscal cliff.
More like in this scenario, riots will happen.
If you’re in those states, and like Mitt Romney, you might as well stay home on Tuesday; your vote is a waste of time.
Not really. If Romney can win the popular vote, Obama's ego will take a hit and that's worth it!
Bruce
If you can get to Dallas you can stay in the converted oil field tool unit. Water, heat, shower, rest room, TV, cows to keep you company, land line. You are welcome for a month or two. Figure out a contact process if thing are unbearable and you can some how out get out of there.
A lot of "people" calling this race will look a lot stupid on Wednesday
And it's rigged. I pick my vote and the other candidate got the "x"
I shit you not. The election official said its happening to every machine and to try again. Guess who will win?
I said FIX IT! Right
suggestion: spoil your vote and write in Pat Paulsen. who cares if he is dead...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Paulsen
...or 'none of the above'...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sXkLs-Xesb4
that would do...
I've been voting for many years and things only get "badder", not better. What the hell is the use...?
When it's this close the biggest cheater will win.... The reward is great the moral cost minimal. In todays world doing the wrong thing for what you think is the greater good is fair game. .....Hmmm ....just doing Gods work... Etc's
On Intrade tonight its Ohio 67% and Prersidency 65% for Obama.
Intrade is a joke, nobody takes it seriously except the clowns at Business Insider.
I would bet that there were more Rebubs displaced by Sandy than Dems. Most of the damage occured in pricey shore communities, not exactly Dem strongholds..
you can't be serious. The Democrats love to have you think they are not wealthy. It's just not the case and I'd bet in the Northeast there are just as many if not more Democrats who own that shoreline home.
Actually those ARE Dem strongholds - most repubs have to work for a fucking living. Why do you think Obummer likes Martha's Vineyard so much?
Goldman and the other TBTFs want Mittens and that is who we will get, like it or not. Even ZHers underestimate their power at this time in American history. They can throw tsunamis of FRNs at technologies we have not even heard of. They have not even touched their gold yet. Why bother when sheeple will work for FRNs?
I agree with Bruce that it will be a few weeks before the dust begins to settle in this Red/Blue game show. How about Thanksgiving week, the last week in November? I expect a lot of drama, tears, angst, and general bullshit all month. Joe sixpack may not have any money, but he can feel important by playing the roll of outraged voter in the scripted play. I'd love to be wrong, but it is good for the news business, and good cover for scams that need to be kept off of the front page. This would be a great time to gin up some more war in the ME. Who would notice a few more dead Syrians or Lebanese when the US Presidency is being stolen?
This "election" is pointless and foolish - just what the sheeple deserve.
Mittens will be crowned as POTUS and BO will retire to Hawaii.
Will be an interesting election. Not a Mormon...surprised a Mormon has done this well. I think he can draw an "inside straight" and pull it out. If he wins the popular vote then clearly he is the presumptive President...win or lose. I think the downstate automatons now see the the perils of voting "one way"...if they vote at all. I think the catastrophic fiscal and monetary policies of this Administration are now being fully realized down there. If you think this Administration cares...think again. All I can say in freezing Upstate is "thank God for the insurance industry." Besides the farmers, truckers and few remaining small businesses that are left no one is "moving forward" as this Administration would like you to believe. Not that even homelessness and starvation can't be spun of course...
Sandy depressed turnout may not change the electoral votes in NY and NJ, but it could change a number of House and Senate votes. NY, NJ, CT, and PA all have Senate races.
If turnout is depressed by Sandy in Philly, that could tip PA to Romney.
New York is allowed to assign a second election day in any county that fails to make 25% turnout as a result of the storm.
There isn't going to be any post-election compromise under any circumstances whatsoever, so don't fret about it.
That's just for state/local races, I believe. Congress sets federal date and I believe would have to vote to approve any extension of federal voting. Which would require them to extend it everywhere in order to avoid equal protection lawsuits.