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Split Vote?
If you live in NY State, your vote doesn’t matter a damn. Obama will take NY walking away. The same is true for California and Illinois. If you’re in those states, and like Mitt Romney, you might as well stay home on Tuesday; your vote is a waste of time. If you live in Texas or Arizona, and you think Obama deserves another four years, forget it; your vote’s a throw away.
There are few states where it will make a difference, but at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what happens in Ohio. Once again, Ohio will determine who is going to be running the show for the next four years. That’s crazy.
Ohio:
State Population = 11.5mm - 3% of US total
State GDP = $500Bn - 3.7% of US total
Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a difference. I supported his campaign with contributions. I carried his petitions during the primary. I got the vote out on Election Day. It’s hard to describe how disappointed I am. There is no way I’m going to vote for Obama again. But that doesn’t matter; I live in NY. I’m a protest voter for Romney. I'm voting knowing full well that the electoral votes in my state are going to Obama. Say I’m not alone. Now add in Sandy.
There are a large number of people who are displaced in one way or another in the northeast. The dislocations that the storm caused will have an influence on voter turnout in the region. Add into the mix, another weather problem. The same area that was hit with Sandy, is going get a Nor-easter on Wednesday. The talk from the weather guys is for 3-4 inches of rain, and more wind. After getting crushed by Sandy a week ago, many people will spend Tuesday worrying about storm preparation. They won’t be thinking of voting.
There are a hell of a lot of Democrats in NJ, NY and Ct. that might just stay away on Tuesday. I don’t think it will change anything as far as the electoral votes go. The states hit by Sandy (and the ones in the way of the next blow) will still end up with electoral ballots going to Obama. But I wonder if this combination of events will have a consequence on the (unimportant) popular vote.
It would not be unique if the electoral votes ended up different than the popular vote. That has happened in 1824, 1876, 1888 and of course, the big one in 2000 when Gore got 536,000 more votes than Bush.
With all this in mind, my election forecast:
- Obama will win the Electoral College (it will be close, but no tie).
- Romney will win the popular vote by more than 500K (the “Sandy Factor” will keep traditional NE Democratic voters at home).
- Ohio will prove to be the determining factor for the Electoral vote. The Ohio result will be very close. There will be recounts. There will be challenges. There will be questions raised about write-in ballots. (See report from Citi on this: Link)
- It will take two weeks+ to resolve the election of 2012.
If the election plays out along these lines, the opportunity for post-election compromise will be lost. In this scenario, the most likely outcome is that nothing happens, and the country falls off the fiscal cliff.
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Sociopath 2012, down goes those ship, up goes the lie machine. I am moving to Soci Russia, get a jump on the ski bum/olympic thing.
I am watching cnn as we wirte (one of a half dozen or so viewers) - they actually have Romney giving a live speech in PA
the crawler shows a new (un-named) National Poll with Obama leading by 3 points
Mit's a bit choppy in his oratory I gotta say his reference to his role as a Boy Scout leader was a concern
but the thing that disturbs me the most is the host Don Lemon - unwatchable
click
currently 5 viewers watching cnn
Michael Barone: R 315 O 223
George Will R 321 O 217
My guess R in the low 300s.
The battle is being fought this weekend in what the Obama campaign thought were blue states. Not a good omen for them.
I can't seem to get my posts published, so I will try one more time. Bruce, how are you invessting to benefit from things playing out as you predict?
Investing?
I have no power. It will be days before I do. The fucking generator is running out of propane and the fucking propane company has no gas.
I have next to no water left. I have to sleep on the couch near the wood stove. That won't do the trick tonight. By 4am the fire will be banked, and I will be freezing.
I have no cable. No TV. I'm going stir crazy. I might take it out on the fucking cat.
I posted this using a wi-fi hot spot on my I-phone. Fucking ATT has like no service, so I'm running at dial-up speed. It reminds me of the days of AOL. Fuck AOL.
Gas is a problem. People are going nuts without it. There is a long line in my town for gas right now. BUT there is no gas at the station. All of those people are waiting on line because there is a rumor that there is going to be a delivery soon. I asked the guy inside if there was any truth to the impending delivery. He said that he had no word.
So you've got people lining up for a rumor of gas. That's fucking crazy.
Anyway, investing is the farthest thing from my mind right now. Fuck investing.
bk
Hang in there Bruce, best of luck....
"By 4am the fire will be banked, and I will be freezing.
I have no cable. No TV. I'm going stir crazy. I might take it out on the fucking cat."
Sounds like a 3-dog night, you don't have a dog never mind three?
A cat won't keep you warm!
Sorry to hear your American dream's not working out.
Might be time to head out to the Motel 6!
Bruce, this will be a version of the new normal. Get a few acres upstate.
Hang in there bro. Please don't kick the cat.
Upstate Hawaii ... NY, CA, NJ ... get out now!
good advice, it may be dinner later this week
General Tsao's feline?
just mind the furballs, they're a bitch
Bruce,
If you live in a conventional home, you always have water in your Hot water heater40-60 gals+, and the tanks of your toilets, IF you have not used bowl cleaner tabs in them.
Bruce you may not realize it but your comment is better than the article, Somebody please get this man an extension cord so we can vicariously experience the aftermath of Sandy and the coming Nor'easter
Its is only going to rain Wednesday, look at NOAA, stop creating panic, let the MSM do that.
Mike Tyson said it best, "everybody has a plan until they get hit"
What makes me crazy here at ZH is all you doomers are panicked.
No cable? You mock TV all year. On your worst day you are better off than the people in Staten Island.
http://blog.chron.com/sciguy/2012/11/classic-noreaster-to-strike-upper-east-coast-this-week/
...There will also be strong winds associated with this storm, with wind gusts above 50 mph possible along coastal areas, including Connecticut and in Cape Cod, near the center of this storm’s path. Peak winds are likely late Wednesday and Thursday.
Coastal flooding and further beach erosion in southern Connecticut, hard hit by Sandy, is also a concern. Tides could be 2 to 3 feet higher with this system.
– In an emergency, the greatest problem is not danger but boredom. Americans are used to being continually entertained. The demand for entertainment is such that content sources are exhausted … Keep some ‘old-fashioned’ games, cards, books (the paper kind), drawing materials, musical instruments and puzzles. Everyone in a household should be given chores to do including cleanup which is essential. Provided the house isn’t destroyed or seriously damaged, an orderly environment is helpful for morale, particularly over extended periods. Looking after neighbors is part of expanding the orderly environment beyond the house.
It is likely that most filling the roads in the New York-New Jersey hurricane zone are simply bored with being in a house with no lights, a droning generator and no junk food to gobble … Americans need to get over this need for outside stimulus … most will be spending extended periods inside one house … within one town … likely to be a small and boring town … for their entire lives. The gasoline shortages will be permanent … what then?
http://www.economic-undertow.com/2012/11/02/flight-of-the-bumblebees/
They're getting published. Maybe he's just ignoring you.
On a tablet. Wasn't seeing them posted. I apologize for multiple posts.
Close-call votes will keep happening, and contesting votes is very expensive, that's why voting machines should be as regulated and scrutinized as slot machines.
http://www.google.com/search?rls=en&q=voting+machines+versus+slot+machines
Dewey Wins!
Unfortunately, without realizing, no matter who you vote for you are throwing away your vote, for to vote in this duplicitous two-party system is nothing more than an exercise in futility. The proof of that is the last 40 years, if you look at the actual policies of each preceding President you will find that the President that wins, no matter if it is Republican or Democrat, maintains or expands on the polices of the previous President. In fact, in looking at the policy differences you will find that 98%, if not more of the previous President is maintained by the newly elected President coming into office, no matter which Party comes to power. In other words, there is not enough difference between the Parties or their polices to be meaningful, but thanks to the wonders of marketing, the American Voter actually thinks he or she is being given a choice, that his or her vote actually counts for something, when in fact, it is only an exercise to keep the American public placated through an elaborate political dog and pony show.
It is the ultimate method of control, to allow a people to think they can make a difference, to give them hope that if only we can get this man into office things will change, the country will finally be put on the right path...how many years have we heard this very thing? Yes, this is the most important election ever, strangely, every election in the past 40 years have been the most important election ever and it is so vital that you cast your vote so we make sure that the right man gets elected.
The stage play is presented to the American People every four years, the actors change, but the script remains the same. Sure there are stage props that are changed out, each candidate has some cosmetic policies that give their supporters the idea that their respective candidate is indeed THE ONE, but as far as substance, as far as real, substantive change taking place due to the election of a Republican or Democrat, there is no substantive differences between them. Your vote has become nothing more than a convenient means of political control, meaningless in terms of results due to the fact that both Parties have rigged the system to such a degree that they dare not allow other voices or opinions to creep into their ideological debate.
This country finds itself in its current dismal state due to the fact that the People of this country, unaware of the enormous power structure behind the two Parties, continue to allow the same polices to be maintained and expanded without abatement, the polices that have brought this country to the brink of ruin and both the Republicans and Democrats are equally responsible, yet we continue to listen, continue to vote for the blind leaders.
well stated Republicae, everything that needs to be said, has been said, over and over. . .
and yet, here we all are, again.
continuity of government - supposedly for catastrophic situations, the preps have been made to keep government safe and sound, continuous.
we're there, yet.
vote, don't vote. but inform yourself, the best you can, from sources wide, while they're still available, before it all disappears down the memory hole.
W. Bush took the Clinton budget surplus, announced to the world he was a "compassionate conservative", and proceeded to spend money like the truly clueless and reckless asshole that he really is, i.e... Several wars, Medicare part D, Pork barrel corrupt asshole.
This fucktard Bush deviated from the downturn he inherited from Clinton. Hastert, then Pelosi, Reid, Obozo took the ball and ran with it. Now we're fucked for several generations.
There was no "Clinton Budget Surplus", it was an accounting tricks, smoke and mirrors, just like everything else in Washington, a political poly to make the American People "feel good". In a similar way, the Clinton Administration tinkered with the way employment number are calculated or, for that matter the CPI numbers, all are accounting tricks with a particular purpose. The CPI calculations were changed to deny SSI receipents cost of living increases, employment numbers is merely a policial cosmetic make-up party for those in power to use and abuse. Obama is currently using the employment calculation process to great effect even though there is nothing whatsoever real about those numbers.
Such a true comment. I commend you on telling the difficult and tragic truth. I hope you don't mind if I copy and paste it into an email for some of my stubborn and insoucient contacts.
"if you look at the actual policies of each preceding President you will find that the President that wins, no matter if it is Republican or Democrat, maintains or expands on the polices of the previous President."
I think Ronald Reagan really deviated from Jimmy Carter's policies, particularly the whole thing about endless growth and consumption forever.
Jimmy Carter essentially had no substantial policy foundation, Reagan, while making some feeble attempts at changing things in Washington, actually began to carry this country toward a far more rapid decent into a budgetary abysss. Carter was an abrievated Presidency, meaning his weakness was so demonstrative that his policy decisions were uneffectual, Reagan simply took the main focus of government which, despite his rhetoric to the contrary, is growth and expanded power.
Jimmy Carter essentially had no substantial policy foundation, Reagan, while making some feeble attempts at changing things in Washington, actually began to carry this country toward a far more rapid decent into a budgetary abysss. Carter was an abrievated Presidency, meaning his weakness was so demonstrative that his policy decisions were uneffectual, Reagan simply took the main focus of government which, despite his rhetoric to the contrary, is growth and expanded power.
Like N.Y., Massachusetts voters have no say in the Presidential race. Maine and Nebraska are the only states that even come close to resembling a Republic in regards to Electoral Votes.
Not sure if this is a duplicate post. Bruce, are you making any investments in anticipation of things playing out as you predict?
The really sad part of the elections is that people who vote actually think their vote matters!
Every football team has their cheerleaders...
Doesn't matter who wins they will increase taxes, reduce entitlements, and "cut" spending with lower % increases for everything except Defense spending while the FED keeps blowing it's wad to prop the markets.
Taxes will be raised on everyone; the rich will be able to hide income using offshore accounts and loopholes.
Medicare will require a 30% supplemental plan from private insurers versus a 20% supplement (a 10% savings!).
Increased capital gains and new transaction taxes.
Return of the Death Tax of 50% and end of the mortgage deduction.
Rebooting the taxation of equity on your sold primary residence.
VAT tax, national sales tax, increased local/state taxes and fees.
They will not stop until the middle class has completely collapsed.
The only reason why this election is important is because TSHTF in 2013-2015, and how we are led at that time will determine the future of the nation for 50 years. If you think BHO will best guide us through the collapse, vote for him.
I think if you look at Obama as an extension of Bush (more spending on crap)... I would be looking for someone that might have a different approach or at least has made different promises that he will be accountable for in four years.
Obama has made no promises, except, 'we're recovering (a lie) so trust me' ... he leaves us no hope for any change. I am really concerned that, given not being constrained by another election,
1. He will actively pursue the turnover of National Sovereignty to a global ruling body to 'solve' the problems brought about by the crisis. Remember it only takes the President and the Senate to tie us to international treaties.
2. Eliminate any military readiness by gutting energy to save the green planet and make the public pay 'necessarily high energy prices'
3. Appoint 2-3 Supremes that believe that the Constitution 'should' be changed to 'fit the needs' of the people.
4. Listen to Paul Krugman and the rest of Keynesians and spend a whole lot more money that has negative utility.
5. Reduce our individual liberty in pursuit of an impossible goal of 'equality' of outcomes.
6. Seek to increase the size of the Federal Government employing people that make twice as much as the same people in private industry.
Will Romney be worse? I'll risk the devil we don't know for four more years of the devil we do know. (as posted earlier today on ZH)
Eliminate any military readiness by gutting energy
Excuse me? We have a military so strong, we can completely take out any other army in the world in a matter of weeks without breaking a sweat (from a commander's point of view, non-nuclear confrontation assumed). Quite a difference to times as the Iranian hostage crisis for example. Still fear we're not strong enough?
Some green energy initiative will curtail the abilities of the armed forces? How stupid are you. Every effin' prez will let half the nation's gas stations run dry before they would consider the tiniest fuel cut for the military, especially if involved in some armed conflict.
So I'm really wondering if you are a right-wing troll trying to push other people's fear buttons or if you just fell for that approach yourself.
The devil we don't know is Gary Johnson. We know plenty about Romney.
Doesn't matter who wins they will increase taxes, reduce entitlements, and "cut" spending with lower % increases for everything except Defense spending while the FED keeps blowing it's wad to prop the markets.
and loopholes.
Medicare will require a 30% supplemental plan from private insurers versus a 20% supplement (a 10% savings!).
Increased capital gains and new transaction taxes.
Return of the Death Tax of 50% and end of the mortgage deduction.
Rebooting the taxation of equity on your sold primary residence.
VAT tax, national sales tax, increased local/state taxes and fees.
They will not stop until the middle class has completely collapsed.
You missed Charitable contributions.
An additional 3.8% home "sales tax" is ALREADY hidden in obamacare.
EB, just when I was getting distracted by being sucked into the angst and mayhem of the L/R debate (beats reality telly) you just had to go and reiterate all the fucked up things that will likely take money out of my pocket (the one with the hole in it)...
Now I need another Ativan, phenobarbital and Thorazine enema.
I had one of those, it numbed me up real good, but then I started getting these really medicinal tasting burps...
No worries. At some point it'll be announced -
and the winner is ... Goldman Sachs.
Hard to believe that anyone bought the hope and change bullshit. The guy was a no show voter most of his career, which is based on one convention speech, some unsealed divorce records, and Edwards and his wife staying in the campaign long enough to take votes away from Clinton, even after poor Elizabeth and his campaign staff knew the affair would become public.
Not too hard to believe...especially when you consider we're surrounded by idiots...and lots of 'em.
Bruce, what investments do you think are actionable in anticipation of things playing out as you predict?
The world is a absurd place.
I have generally no interest in American party politics but I have just watched a mildly interesting take on Barry and Mitts early years.
What stuck in my little head was Mitts "mission" to Bordeaux while a young strapping lad.
It was a spectacular failure of course.
I guess the vast number of atheists , catholics and jews did not help.
But a American Werewolf in Paris ......eh no a American Mormon in 1970s Paris does kind of stick in ones memory banks - its a remarkable image really.
But what really happened over there ?
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONibuODQWkY
We are witnessing the final death throes of the cromwellian nation and now market state - it is folding in on itself , destroyed by its own wild internal contradictions .
Just sit back and watch the movie - there is no point trying to make sense of it - such thoughts much like the movie you are watching is pointless in the great scheme of things
I've always believed a Russian style "Army of Occupation" was better for America at the end of WW 2. Tell me...what were we thinking when we gave Europe all that money? Clearly the whole complex (which I wish was an edifice) has been spent to spy on us. I would argue ALL of us of course...
"Its hard to sum up what actually goes on because frankly nothing really goes on - and what you see makes no sense.
Theres no coherent story being told and its just pure randomness at its worst.
Now Mitt meets a load of people who don't like him and they keep him locked up behind bars like a animal and then they even have him pulling them about like a horse but he does not complain.
Thats really strange because all he apperently does is convert random people and rape women"
Imagine if the dumb fuck meet a real European woman while on his sacred "Mission"
www.youtube.com/watch?v=OtDfHSsQVXY
Would he have come back to his future virginal teenage wife ?
Would he have reconsidered his God given right to asset strip compnaies in the name of something or other ?....$$$$$$$$$$
We will never know the answer to that question.
yes, it is confirmed, you are in fact a dork...