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Split Vote?
If you live in NY State, your vote doesn’t matter a damn. Obama will take NY walking away. The same is true for California and Illinois. If you’re in those states, and like Mitt Romney, you might as well stay home on Tuesday; your vote is a waste of time. If you live in Texas or Arizona, and you think Obama deserves another four years, forget it; your vote’s a throw away.
There are few states where it will make a difference, but at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what happens in Ohio. Once again, Ohio will determine who is going to be running the show for the next four years. That’s crazy.
Ohio:
State Population = 11.5mm - 3% of US total
State GDP = $500Bn - 3.7% of US total
Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a difference. I supported his campaign with contributions. I carried his petitions during the primary. I got the vote out on Election Day. It’s hard to describe how disappointed I am. There is no way I’m going to vote for Obama again. But that doesn’t matter; I live in NY. I’m a protest voter for Romney. I'm voting knowing full well that the electoral votes in my state are going to Obama. Say I’m not alone. Now add in Sandy.
There are a large number of people who are displaced in one way or another in the northeast. The dislocations that the storm caused will have an influence on voter turnout in the region. Add into the mix, another weather problem. The same area that was hit with Sandy, is going get a Nor-easter on Wednesday. The talk from the weather guys is for 3-4 inches of rain, and more wind. After getting crushed by Sandy a week ago, many people will spend Tuesday worrying about storm preparation. They won’t be thinking of voting.
There are a hell of a lot of Democrats in NJ, NY and Ct. that might just stay away on Tuesday. I don’t think it will change anything as far as the electoral votes go. The states hit by Sandy (and the ones in the way of the next blow) will still end up with electoral ballots going to Obama. But I wonder if this combination of events will have a consequence on the (unimportant) popular vote.
It would not be unique if the electoral votes ended up different than the popular vote. That has happened in 1824, 1876, 1888 and of course, the big one in 2000 when Gore got 536,000 more votes than Bush.
With all this in mind, my election forecast:
- Obama will win the Electoral College (it will be close, but no tie).
- Romney will win the popular vote by more than 500K (the “Sandy Factor” will keep traditional NE Democratic voters at home).
- Ohio will prove to be the determining factor for the Electoral vote. The Ohio result will be very close. There will be recounts. There will be challenges. There will be questions raised about write-in ballots. (See report from Citi on this: Link)
- It will take two weeks+ to resolve the election of 2012.
If the election plays out along these lines, the opportunity for post-election compromise will be lost. In this scenario, the most likely outcome is that nothing happens, and the country falls off the fiscal cliff.
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Oh Sweet Jesus - another fucking Mormon.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEStsLJZhzo
Its because yee have so much first, second & third...........ladies I guess
Propagation is far more effective then even most Randy Catholic couple can ever hope to achieve.
mmmm,
no, "smallergovnow" (innovative name ya got there dude!) has been here about 2 months and keeps calling everyone a "nebbish".
I think he's a jew
fiscal cliff without question as no matter who wins it will be ugly
My conspiracy side still wonders about those incidents of MSM affiliates running an election crawler declaring Obama as winner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VDmrc1vgK_M
Flash:
New York, NY 11:59 pm Monday, November 5, 2012
All major MSM news services have unanimously declared Barcrack Obama to be reelected president of the United States with 107.4% of the vote counted, by a margin of 100.4% to Romney's 3.1%.
Acting in a Ecologically Correct manner, in order to conserve energy and direct resources to reunifying the country, all polling places have been declared redundant and are hereby ordered to remain shuttered by Executive Order. If deemed necessary by the Office of the President, an impartial recount will be overseen by the joint aegis of the SEC, Southern Poverty Law Center, ACORN and the SEIU.
Any individuals having gross income over $15,000/annum and couples filing jointly making over $15,001/annum are hereby declared multi-gazillionaires and must forfeit an additional 210% of the cumulative last 4 years gross income for immediate redistribution to help offset necessary federal budget expenditures, primarily personnel related within the legislative branches.
.....In California, obama won by 1%, allowing CA to cast ALL 55 of it's electoral votes to obama, leaving one half of the 37,000,000 CA residents unrepresented.
That's one half of 37,000,000 CA residents who don't know how to take a hint.
Typical California, land of uberliberal democracy and freedoms.
One half is disenfranchised paying for the other half's idiocy and folly
There are two choices. I don't think more Big Gubmint is going to move us forward. Business needs a Pres. that has their backs. I'm afraid if Obummer wins, we're in for crash-o-rama 2.0 courtesy of Obama.
No, this will be The Great Implosion™, V1.0!
That, too, would be Bushes fault. BO could stumble thru the next 4 years, like the last, and his faithful would rue the fact the Kenyan is limited to 2 terms. (Then go back to NASCAR and Baby Boo Boo).
Whom ever wins we may be in for crash-a-rama 2.0
Gotta be kinda nuts to want the job that could be associated with the next big dipper... History might not write the next guy up too favorably no matter what he does.
Two weeks...
Just fucking think of 2 weeks of heated debate about this shit.
Yelling, screaming, threats....
Painful.
I'm going on vacation (like Joe Biden).
Maybe I'll even get a hair transplant.
My back is getting a bit bare these days.
Look at it as 2 weeks of gold and PM takedown...
which could lead to one of the bi-yearly buying opportunities that come along.
i'll be looking more closely at that.
With ya there Duke...
I voted for Obama eight years ago. The alternative was Keyes. My motto: rather the Communist than the Religion freak. But I saw through Obama then. You didn't see it four years ago? Probably too much masturbation has made you blind.
Romney in a walk. And I don't even like him. But I'll take him over the communist.
Why are we forced to choose whether we want to be shot or stabbed?
THIS SHIT IS FUCKED UP AND BULLSHIT.
Its the American way. Only a 2 party system is good for us. The rest of the world does not know anything with their multi parties systems. (sarc off)
Well Obama is like being shot with double 00 buck at 5 yards, Romney is like a two inch gash flesh wound stabbing....
Four years ago, I saw right through Obama. I knew his "hope and change" rhetoric was a sales pitch for a product that would malfunction not long after you pulled it out of the box and plugged it in. Although I'm far less intelligent than you Mr. Krasting, I'm no longer disillusioned by the false promises made by either candidate painted in blue or red.
Knowing that The Bruce is now pushing his chips over to Romney makes me now want to move Krasting over to the file of useful idiots I read on occasion.
Why Bruce, why?
- A former fan
Apparently, voting for the lesser of two evils is less evil to some...
In this election, it's the evil of two lessers.
Well, Romney will destroy social security and medicare.
The thing that will destroy social security and medicare as we know it is... social security and medicare as we know it.
So many things wrong here.
What makes you think I'm so intelligent? I'm an ex wall street hack blog writer, after all. I just write a lot. That means nothing.
I try to never project the idea that "I'm smarter and have answers". Basically I read a lot, and then ask questions about what might happen next.
You're pissed that I won't vote for Obama? Think about how pissed I am! I wanted this guy to do the right things, and he let me/us down. This article was about how my vote didn't matter. I'm allowed this one small protest, no?
So now your an ex? Fine with me, but think of all that really, really, really good stuff you will be missing....
Sincerely,
Useful Idiot
Bruce,
You're one of the few contributors to this site that is worth reading consistently. Your work on SS issues is particularly good. So, forget the negative comments from the few nattering nabobs of negatism.
Really? I'm still waiting for BK's views on 3rd SS-Panzer Division "Totenkopf". There were Men in those days.
Choice is an illusion... --George Carlin
Write in George Carlin's name Bruce. Write in Ron Paul. Write in your name.
It doesn't matterwho as long as it is not a vote for the two party candidates.
Do the right thing.
Voting for Romney as an "act of protest" in NYS is not the right thing.
I got this moron thing I do, it's called thinking. --George Carlin
Gitmo
Patriot Act
Lobbyist
Transparency
Unity
Abiltiy to negotiate wth Iran, N Korea
Drones over America
Lie, cheat and steal for Obamacare
Rigged Stats and the notion of "saved" jobs.
Not exactly the change we were led to believe though I do have hope for a change. Too bad the only difference between Dems and Reps are the PR machines.
Bruce, first off, I respect your opinions and it takes a lot of guts to admit a mistake. Really, I have more respect for people who do. Its hard to do.
But...at what point in time did you really believe THE MOST progressive...JUNIOR Senator...with his background (from Rev Wright's "church" back to his communist uncle Frank)...with all his "known unknowns"...would be the best choice as President?
There were many who said the guys a bad egg...and by the way, from Chicago where they do things a little different. No executive experience. No business experience. No understanding of free markets (such as they are). From having a hand in bankrupting the Annenburg project for inner city school kids in Chicago to being associated with the New Party...there was no there there for us.
Ok, fine, he sucks now. Great. We're four years later, the government six trillion more in debt, with zero national policies (pick one) to go FORWARD on.
nmewn
Have you ever admitted to a mistake? First respect yourself.
Show some respect:
"I swear by my life and my love of it that I will NEVER live for the sake of another man, nor ask another man to live FOR MINE." -- J. Galt
Yes I have. Today in fact. Truth always cuts through the BS.
And you?
The problem though is the 1.2T to 1.6T both Romney and Obama will overspend in 2013. And 2014. And 2015. And 2016.
A pox on both their houses.
Regards,
Cooter
Yes, I know Cooter.
Thats why I now root for Benny & The Ink Jets...it makes my retirement fund grow on the lake floor. I'll buy another boat on credit when I get ready to cash out ;-)
You are intelligent and I really do enjoy reading your posts.
I'm not pissed at all about anything (except at God for blessing me with an 8-inch cock and erectile dysfunction [he does have a sense of humor after all]). As far as I'm concerned, Obama and Romney can both go fuck eachother with a dildo, wrapped in barbed wire and dipped in a bucket of AIDS.
The couple shots of single malt scotch made my sarcastic nature come across online, as usual, as being rude. I apologize.
The Bruce---keep posting and I will keep reading!
God does have a sense of humor...after all, he put that 8 inch cock on your forehead.
Ok, after all that...
Can we all agree now: zero hedge cliff-hanging?
Falling, we go.
Knukles says; "Keep up the good work, Bruce."
The more I sip this single malt scotch, the more I find myself happily yelling: THE BRUCE OF KRASTING!
...like I've suddenly been placed in some Rod Serlingish Braveheart sequel where instead of William Wallace shooting bolts of lightning from his ass, Ben of The Bernanke is shit-pissing dollar bills all over the conquered lands.
Pour me another.
THE BRUCE OF KRASTING!
I agree. And why can't homelessness and starvation be spun? As Bruce says "you can take these people for granted." And now they know what that means. Who you gonna turn to? The Mayor? Hahahahaha. He's now on board the Bankruptcy Brigade! You who now have nothing now know the difference. Chris Christie? You might want to....Zero hedge those bets. These people are cold and hungry FOR A REASON.
Full disclosure: I was going to vote for Douche Bag but I have decided to
vote for Turd Sandwich instead.
I believe you meant "Giant Douche," who is my candidate.
If you write about stopping the clubbing of baby seals or about protecting
children from sexual predators, most likely, you will get very little negative
feedback, even if your facts are flawed and you offer little original thought.
But if your topic is politics or religion, you best don your flack suit, for you
will encounter much criticism, no matter how accurate your facts and how
thought provoking and original your arguments.
Party politics and religions in general are vehicles for dividing people.
They were created to pit one group against another, to divide and conquer,
inorder to take power away from the masses. Only open minds may benefit
from an article like this one by BK, and when it comes to Politics and Religion,
they are few and far between.
Don't forget AGW
Always makes for a great bit of Kabuki theater.
Bruce Krasting may miss the big macro picture of American corruption -
He does not see the top-level corruption of the US political process and the US courts, he still has an innocent schoolboy naïveté about the big grand 'America'
But BK is terrific on most everything else, he is a thoughtful, compassionate guy, with an open mind, and I think still remains one of the best consistent quality reads on ZeroHedge
BK is great at putting pieces together out of concrete data and situations ... but he just is not prone to making the sweeping connect-all-the-dots jump, to viewing the USA with a new paradigm, and seeing the full macro corruption matrix
He will get there, tho sadly perhaps when some good person he knows gets carted off to the FEMA camps, or is railroaded by a bribed US judge ... hope Bruce doesn't end up there himself
Bruce Krasting being questioned at the new Un-American Activity Committee hearings:
"Mr Krasting, Are you now, or have you ever been, a ZeroHedger?"
+10
I don't always agree with BK but I have never considered any of his contributions a waste of my time. Rather unlike some of the infomercial guys.
I'm in the Bill Gross camp. They both sold their sole to the 0.1% via the PAC's. I wrote in RON PAUL. Ya I know, but I have to live with myself.
romneys base is the the rascists / guns and ammo guys and the religious nut jobs - as a block they represent probably 70%+ of the republican base - they are not romney devotees - they are against reason and pro subjective bible parables and myths
in NY especially -romney voters are interested only in the marginal net income tax effect - which is not an idealogical base - any guy with daughters, a wife, a mother or sister would be embarrassed to be associated with this craven group ethically and intellectually - an association with this motley crew is tatamount to saying your a con man or a fraudster and you believe lying and stealing is the last tool in the bag to do business
no a protest vote - go ahead for you maybe - but New Yorkers are not Alabama. they are serious thinking people who know what the stakes are!
Omen1/7-Your people are those that I do not see at 0730 driving into the city. Your people are those I do see at 1600 lined up at the obama phone giveaway booth that I drive by on the way home. Oh, by the way, I'm #109. Do you ever actually get out of NYC or the northeast at all? I have found that the most predjudiced people are those such as yourself stuck in their little bubble. Keep on living in grey gardens... The rest of us will continue to carry your sorry ass.
No need to dis Alabama dude. At the high cost of losing my ZH 2012 comment up award , I'm going to say your first paragraph was spot on. But then only if you mean Obama is as full of shit as the mitt.