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Split Vote?
If you live in NY State, your vote doesn’t matter a damn. Obama will take NY walking away. The same is true for California and Illinois. If you’re in those states, and like Mitt Romney, you might as well stay home on Tuesday; your vote is a waste of time. If you live in Texas or Arizona, and you think Obama deserves another four years, forget it; your vote’s a throw away.
There are few states where it will make a difference, but at the end of the day, the only thing that matters is what happens in Ohio. Once again, Ohio will determine who is going to be running the show for the next four years. That’s crazy.
Ohio:
State Population = 11.5mm - 3% of US total
State GDP = $500Bn - 3.7% of US total
Four years ago I voted for Obama. I thought he would make a difference. I supported his campaign with contributions. I carried his petitions during the primary. I got the vote out on Election Day. It’s hard to describe how disappointed I am. There is no way I’m going to vote for Obama again. But that doesn’t matter; I live in NY. I’m a protest voter for Romney. I'm voting knowing full well that the electoral votes in my state are going to Obama. Say I’m not alone. Now add in Sandy.
There are a large number of people who are displaced in one way or another in the northeast. The dislocations that the storm caused will have an influence on voter turnout in the region. Add into the mix, another weather problem. The same area that was hit with Sandy, is going get a Nor-easter on Wednesday. The talk from the weather guys is for 3-4 inches of rain, and more wind. After getting crushed by Sandy a week ago, many people will spend Tuesday worrying about storm preparation. They won’t be thinking of voting.
There are a hell of a lot of Democrats in NJ, NY and Ct. that might just stay away on Tuesday. I don’t think it will change anything as far as the electoral votes go. The states hit by Sandy (and the ones in the way of the next blow) will still end up with electoral ballots going to Obama. But I wonder if this combination of events will have a consequence on the (unimportant) popular vote.
It would not be unique if the electoral votes ended up different than the popular vote. That has happened in 1824, 1876, 1888 and of course, the big one in 2000 when Gore got 536,000 more votes than Bush.
With all this in mind, my election forecast:
- Obama will win the Electoral College (it will be close, but no tie).
- Romney will win the popular vote by more than 500K (the “Sandy Factor” will keep traditional NE Democratic voters at home).
- Ohio will prove to be the determining factor for the Electoral vote. The Ohio result will be very close. There will be recounts. There will be challenges. There will be questions raised about write-in ballots. (See report from Citi on this: Link)
- It will take two weeks+ to resolve the election of 2012.
If the election plays out along these lines, the opportunity for post-election compromise will be lost. In this scenario, the most likely outcome is that nothing happens, and the country falls off the fiscal cliff.
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Hey Obama employee, come back next Wednesday please, Romney will win in a landslide.
Romney will get the same 47% that MacCain got, and for the same reason: no HardRight Constitutionalist will vote for a corporate-socialist. The only reason this election is close at all is because the Kenyan is down c. 6% via defections by the disappointed HardLeft. Hopefully the outcome will be as close as Krasting thinks: it'll bring Civil War II that much closer, and that's the only way we get the Republic back. Remember, November 6th is National-Buy-a-Gun Day. Cast a vote for Freedom: aux armes, mes citoyens!
Bush v. Gore bitchez ... watch two evil clowns mud wrestle before an audience of elderly hacks in black.
This is your fiat-currency demonocracy on bath salts.
OBVIOUS PAID TROLL IS OBVIOUS
Omen the NEBBISH has spoken...
Debatable at best. Alabamans at least know how to prepare for a storm, and they don't require electrical workers coming to help re-establish the grid to join the union before they can pitch in.
Debatable at best. Alabamans at least know how to prepare for a storm, and they don't require electrical workers coming to help re-establish the grid to join the union before they can pitch in.
Anyoner else having issues voting this post up or down?,or just me.
Wonder how many deaths their will be because of the HELP for free refused from Bama??
Add that to your Unions list of sins.
Yes, the votes are not working.
FYI - The use of italics to start a post disables voting.
Not mine.
A vote for Romney as a "protest" is a waste, and is a disgrace to this country. A vote for a third party candidate is also a protest vote, but is not a waste. The only way we can eventually fix things here is to eliminate the controlled market that is politics. The only way to eliminate the controlled market of politics is to introduce opposition to it. The only way to introduce opposition is if the people demand a third (or fourth, fifth) party. Therefore, vote third party this election. Throw a wrench into the two party dictatorship.
Pardon my French but FUCK the red/blue idiocracy that has drowned Americans in doubt and endless religious carrot-stick runs.
I’m a protest voter for Romney.
Voting for the Evil Party instead of the Stupid Party changes nothing.
Casting a vote for one of two thuggish executioners is unethical.
"but New Yorkers are not Alabama. they are serious thinking people who know what the stakes are!"
You've got to be kidding me. New York state is OWNED by NYC.
Serious thinking people wouldn't allow it.
That's what I thought: "New Yorkers are serious people who know what the stakes are"? He's got to be kidding. These are the serious people that can't think far enough ahead to fill their gas tanks and get a few bags of groceries after they've been warned FOR FIVE DAYS that MEGASTORM IS GONNA HIT YOU DEAD CENTER SO GET OUT!"
Then I realized that Damien OmenIV meant to write "New Yorkers are serious people; they know where the steaks are."
1) Did you say Romneys base, or ZH's base? LOL
2) Your personal description describes the dems and obama.
3) They are talking a good (Sandy) fight, but their efforts will be viewed as uncaring by the people without food, shelter, power, gas.....adding votes for Romney.
4) ALL states electoral votes need to be split to reflect the popular vote, NOT winner take all.
5) If dems are so intellectually astute, why would they vote for him AGAIN....let alone the first time?
6) Romney IS Obama, who's prez doesn't really matter to those that run this country.
7) 90% of the country believes in God. 77% align themselves with some Christian religion. A fact you might want to include in your next "reasonable and saubjective" rant.
"5) If dems are so intellectually astute ..."
That is one big "if" right there.
The Six Problems With Modern Progressive/Socialism
1) You really didn't learn everything you needed to know in kindergarten: Progressive/Socialists love to think of themselves as sophisticated, nuanced intellectuals, but the truth is they have a kindergartner's view of the world. If it has been defined as "nice" to people they like, they're for it. If it has been defined as "mean" to people they like, they're against it -- and that is about as deep as it gets. Unfortunately, that lack of adult perspective isn't so cute in political leaders who are making life and death decisions that may still have ramifications fifty years from now.
2) "Progressive/Socialists hate religion because politics is a religion substitute for Progressive/Socialists and they can't stand the competition." -- Ann Coulter: Somewhat ironically, given the hostile relationship that has developed between the Left and Christianity, Progressive/Socialist beliefs have more in common with religious doctrine than a political agenda. There is no significant debate on the Left about the aims of their agenda -- and the only "sins" believers can commit against their religion are no longer being politically useful, deviating from doctrine, or worst of all, cooperating with conservatives in some fashion. No matter how much evidence piles up that big government doesn't work, that welfare destroys families, and that socialism doesn't bring prosperity, it makes no impact on Progressive/Socialists because their dogma is based on faith, not logic.
3) "It is not human nature we should accuse but the despicable conventions that pervert it." -- Denis Diderot: There is no dream more eternal in the Progressive/Socialist heart than completely remaking human nature. If we could all just care about the person across the world as much as we do our families, we could live in a utopia! Unfortunately, in practice, human nature tends to be quite a bit more difficult to subvert than in the Progressive/Socialist imagination. That's why, despite more than 5,000 years of human civilization, very little progress has been made in this area - but, oh, the Left is still trying. One day, if they just spend enough money on the right government programs, all the wars will end and everyone will be living in identical million dollar mansions while we spend our days humming tunes from the latest Woodstock Tribute Album.
4) "Oh what a tangled web we weave, when at first we practice to deceive." -- Sir Walter Scott: Like freaky religious cults, Progressive/Socialists have become adept at hiding their more abhorrent views from the public until it's too late. It's common to see Progressive/Socialists adamantly deny that they hold a position over and over again only to completely switch sides the moment they have one more vote than they need to pass legislation. Whether it's lying about their opponents or what they believe, honesty is certainly not considered to be the best policy on the Left.
5) "Why do you look at the speck of sawdust in your brother's eye and pay no attention to the plank in your own eye." -- Matthew 7:3-5: Despite the fact that Progressive/Socialists love few things better than to cry "hypocrisy," there is a rather bizarre disconnect between what modern Progressive/Socialists seem to believe about themselves and how they behave. Progressive/Socialists believe that they're
compassionate, but only with other people's money. They tie themselves in knots trying to come up with valid reasons why terrorists hate the United States, but they never give a moment's thought to whether the people who dislike them might have a point. They pat themselves on the back for helping minorities, but never stop to consider that Progressive/Socialist policies have done more damage to black Americans in the last fifty years than the KKK could have done in a millennium. Somehow, stunning hypocrisies of this sort, which are too numerous to recount without doing a whole other column, never seem to be bother anyone on the Left.
6) "Trust yourself. You know more than you think you do." -- Benjamin Spock: It's great to have a healthy self-image, but there's not much to be said for thinking you're smarter than the collective wisdom and traditions passed down through human history just because you happen to read the Daily Kos. Unbecoming arrogance of this sort permeates modern Progressive/Socialism. The most grave of decisions are undertaken by the modern Left without the slightest regard for the potential consequences. Past disasters created by similar bouts of whimsical thinking, of which there are many, are treated as acts of God untethered from mere human decision making and prompt no self reflection whatsoever. That's because to the modern Progressive/Socialist, the real world results of their policies are secondary in importance to the amount of positive self-esteem generated by supporting that policy.
I was reading a cognitive science article not so long ago about a study carried out on various randomly constructed groups of people. They were given the task of arguing a pre-selected point to other randomly assembled groups of people in a controlled environment. The argument topics were developed for them beforehand, and were purposefully open-ended with no definitive right or wrong outcomes. So, the researchers let the groups of people argue for designated periods of time and then decided to question everyone individually. Over 95% of the people interviewed across all the groups stated that "if the other side only had of listened more carefully to the argument we were making, they would certainly have converted to our point of view". The more complex the topics became, the more intransigence the researchers observed in people. Here we have hard scientific proof for the old adage “Nothing keeps an argument going better than two people who don’t know what they are talking about”.
Also pertinent to your case, when Matthew made a moral judgement about shortsightedness in others, what he was really witnessing was an evolutionary trait in all humans including himself. I often wonder, were these holy men wise enough to notice that these were traits of nature, as opposed to moral failings… only to be rectified with self-flagellation and pleas for forgiveness. If they weren’t aware of the fact, I suppose religion can be forgiven for all the shame it has pushed onto people over the millennia, for no other reason than being human. They might even apologise for talking so much shit, now that would be progressive.
…on Americans
One half thinks they are intellectually superior, with the other half thinking they are morally superior…the fun part is watching the morally superior trying to sound intellectually superior!
"but the truth is they have a kindergartner's view of the world." I was thinking 4th grade but you may be right.
"7) 90% of the country believes in God. 77% align themselves with some Christian religion"
Religion is the latest republican surrogate for 1980's voodoo economics and the reason the 1% will always supress the 99%
get a life!
The part for you was the:
" A fact you might want to include in your next "reasonable and subjective" rant. "
You believe ANYTHING with "science" in the title, don't you?
You seem to imply "they're rich too." I wish...
Agreed
Alabamians are serious folk
All in on Acme Rocket skates and parachutes
I think Obama in a landslide. How can Ohio not vote Obama? Union, government workers and welfare...that's a majority.
Goldfish, that's only half the state. The other half of Ohio are hard working family farmers.
Those looking for a protest candidate may I suggest Mr Hyman. For the past several years Buster has been getting my vote whenever I am able to write in a candidate's name. However, I've noticed that most elections in my neck of the woods don't allow a write-in. Must be a democracy/free elections thing.
It will go down in his-story as the Nightmare on K Street...
ori
I will be so glad Wednesday when that Moochella bitch does not pop up telling me to vote for her dumb ass husband. Fuck that NWA.
"Four years ago I voted for Obama."
And at that point, I realized this post would be a total waste of time. And for the record, I would have thought the same if you had said "four years ago I voted for McMilktoast". Next.