This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Obama’s (dumb) Line in the Sand
So both Boehner and Obama have done their post election photo ops. They have spelled out their positions on the looming fiscal cliff. No surprises at all. The Republicans are saying “No” to any increases in tax rates while Obama has said he will outright veto any bill that is presented to him that does not raise taxes on rich folks.
I was surprised by the reaction in the press to the positions set forth by these two. The headlines make it seem like B&O are ready to work together, and achieve the necessary compromises to avoid falling off a cliff. I think the press has it wrong. We’re headed into a bitter fight; in part, because the President has drawn a very dangerous line in the sand.
The President has said that the recent election has shown that the majority of American’s want the rich to pay more in taxes. What is the President insisting on? Is he pushing for something that would make a difference? I don’t think so. More importantly, the Congressional Budget Office does not agree with the President’s position.
The CBO put out a report on this topic last week. It spelled out the consequences of an increase in the tax rate for those making over $250,000 (versus reversing all of the Bush tax cuts). It does not add up to much.
The tax that Obama wants to increase will result in a lousy $42Bn in 2013 and $38Bn in 2014 according to the CBO. That’s peanuts to a government that spends $3.6T a year. The tax increase that Obama is insisting on comes to three days of spending.
No tax increase comes without a cost. The CBO evaluated the implications of raising the taxes on those making $250k and up. The consequences to both GDP and jobs:
Raising high end taxes will reduce GDP growth by .1% and will result in 200,000 less workers finding jobs. It will do these bad things by the 4th Q of 2013. Some context for these numbers:
The .1% drop in GDP translates to $16Bn less growth in 2013. On average, the government takes in about 20% of GDP, so the drop in GDP relating to the tax increase will translate into a shortfall in revenue of $3.2Bn.
The tax increase mandated by the President will translate into 200,000 less jobs for 2013. If the people who did not find work as a result were forced to stay on unemployment it would cost the government $4.6Bn.
So Obama’s “must have” tax increase will generate $42Bn in revenue, but it will cost ~$8Bn. The Obama's plan is to decrease the deficit by about $34Bn in 2012, and by less than that in future years. These numbers are beyond chump change. It comes to 0.9% of total spending and just 3.0% of the deficit. It does not move the needle at all.
My conclusion is that we are in for a fight. Talk of compromise and “coming together for the good of the country” is just noise. The President is insisting on a tax increase that will not achieve anything of substance. Obama has drawn a very visible line in the sand over this issue. I can’t imagine how the House Republicans will go along with it. The President’s opening position on how to work through the fiscal cliff is about politics, not economic substance.
Get ready for a failure in these negotiations. We are going to fall off of that cliff in 53 days!
»
- advertisements -
I hardly think letting the Bush tax cuts expire is so punishing on the wealthy. Their taxes will still be historically low.
And why should financial wizards who add nothing to our economy get the "carried interest loophole" and pay lower tax rates than working stiffs?
You haven't a clue what you are talking about. You are a dreamer...
Oh yes, I have a clue. And I am a dreamer.
If the average voter counts for anything, Obama would be on firm political ground if he raised taxes on those with incomes over $250K and slashed defense spending. This could be interpreted as his "mandate".
I only favor the defense cuts. Those could be made with no damage whatsoever to this nation. And "Mr. Market" would applaud as well.
I agree with you. Personally, I could live with the tax increases but I oppose them vehemently. Tax increases will guarantee the House falls to the Democrats at midterms. Bruce is right, the tax increase is all politics. It is designed to capture the House at midterms.
The Tea Party House members made a pledge of no new taxes. They will be abandoned by their constituents if they raise taxes on anybody.
I noticed that this thread devolves into diabolical conspiracy theorizing and other masturbation, later on. I am sick of these people spreading their poison, while sitting on their asses counting their shekels instead of taking action. Convincing others to be apathetic instead of working within the system. Of course it is rigged. That means you have to work all the harder. The Tea Party movement was getting small government Constitutionalists into the House. The fact is, there are a few really good people in the House. They are not bought, yet, and are motivated purely for patriotic reasons.
Those same people will be the first to get voted out. Enthusiastic progressives on the other side, versus disgruntled and apathetic supporters on their side. Who will get to stay? Well funded and well connected RINO's and neocons. The Tea Party Constitutionalists will go the way of the Blue Dogs. Then it will be a self fulfilling prophecy of the conspiracy buffs that both sides are the same. When the House is lost they will say,'I told you so.'
If you don't like how things are going now, you'll really hate it when we lose the House.
Defense cuts, yes, and start the bidding war to gain the support of women. Amnesty for illegals? Never. Conservatives are outnumbered, now, 10-20 million more Democrats is a bad plan. Bible thumping cavemen for nominees needs to be a thing of the past. Indeed, conservatives need to start fielding Constitutional pro choice female candidates.
The foremost thing on the mind of any totalitarian control freak dictator wannabe is to disarm anyone who can oppose him. So, I'm sure President Marx would love nothing better than to de-fund the military, since their officers have sworn loyalty to the Constitution, not the President. All the guns in private hands would have to go too, but that can be taken care of by other means. The goal is to make sure the only guns left are in the hands of "police", and the police are in complete obeisance to the State. We're not too far from that now.
The real scary thing you have mistated is that military officers swear an oath of allegience to the president, not to the constitution. Enlisted personel swear allegience to the constitution. Do you suppose that this is why there hasn't been a coup dislodging the usurper, as yet?
"defense cuts...could be made with no damage whatsoever". Ah, excuse me. I'm with you on the cuts, $400 million for 1 fighter is toooo much, but defense contractors and soldiers gotta eat too. Part of the solution is to eliminate baseline budgeting and selective reductions of all programs paid with tax dollars. Too simple I guess.
I'd rather defense contractors and soldiers get into a new line of work. We can't afford to police the world anymore, even if it is to take care of cronies interests.
Agree with cuts to defense spending but the numbers still do not add up. Without addressing entitlements you can't solve the problem. Constitutionally limited government is the only solution but that will not come without a revolution much worse than the original version...
The biggest issue is health care. Obamacare didn't do anything about making health care more affordable. We should look at how the rest of the developed world is able to provide cheaper, better health care and start over.
We can look at t
he models in Europe and Japan.Just saying
Yes, we can. They spend far less per capita on health care that achieves better results.
Get ready for a failure in these negotiations. We are going to fall off of that cliff :
Get ready for Mr. Market to announce the debt and equity markets discounting of the underlying total economic failure brought to us after the Reagan era by our 2 party government dictatorship.
Obama is above average intelligence but he smokes and probably uses drugs and doesn't like to work. I blame him for taking the job and not for not doing the work. I wouldn't do the work either.
I think most people don't give a rat's ass about what he does in his private time. What matters is what he accomplishes. So far it's been mostly negative accomplishments i.e. damage.
Ask Peter Schiff how Obama stole the election. Idiots voted for obama.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=dz7boAzeV7s
They didn't want to risk losing all those nice Bennies that Obama continues to provide. Now under Obama's rule, the unemployed don't even need to look for work anymore. Were already looking at another extension of unemployment benefits for those still not working. It was what? 99 weeks and climbing.
No, he won because the best the Republicans could do is put up a flip-flopping plutocrat who dissed libertarian Ron Paul. Almost like they threw the election. Maybe they thought hate would be the most powerful motivation, if so they miscalculated.
A message from a plutocrat to all the little people:
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-message-from-us-rich-plutocrats-to-all-...
This has nothing to do with tax revenue. It's all about the Marxist/Stalinist class war.
I was at CVS the other day and when I went to pay for my goods, the cashier asked if I'd like to contribute to Red Cross for Hurricane Relief. All I had to do was enter a dollar amount on the keypad where the bill gets paid.
I told the woman under no circumstances did I have any interest in helping the people in their time of need.
Let them help themselves.
Let the nanny state government these very same people continually elect, help them.
Move to higher ground.
Move away from the coast line.
The same thing regarding this fiscal cliff nonsense. No way the 2 sides reach agreement. They don't want to reach agreement. Letting tax cuts expire, while cutting spending, no one has to take the blame.
Illiterate morons electing morons to represent us gets us right where we deserve.....A shitty third world country with a bunch of fucking idiots watching HD television and playing with expensive toys.
My advice to the rest of the country: Go fuck yourselves, and enjoy your petty little miserable existence.
If you wish and hope really hard, maybe the gub'mint will forgive your student loans, forget about your mortgage payments, graciously pay your health care costs, and supply you with food stamps for eternity.
Or, this game ends very suddenly, like fucking real soon. The wheels come off, everything becomes unglued; and all the freeloaders realize they've been had.
Unfortunately I Agree. My Taxes are going up. i will have less take home pay, especially since my cost of living is soaring from higher food and energy and health insurance.
Since the Federal, State, and local gov't are raising my taxes (ie forced charity) then we are already contributing to the wealthfare of those in need. If the gov't was not contributing then I would consider contributing more.
Third if I don't take care of things close to home, preparing for the long term and future economic and social crises, I will end up being dependant on gov't support. I deeply believe we are heading for a major and severe long term crisis that will likely bring an end to the United states or the US will devolve into a police state.
As much as I like to help my fellow human, I realize there are limits. Nothing I can do now or in the future can prevent a major crisis or a complete collapse of western civilization. Its unfortunate the Western civilization no longer sustainable.
If you are referring to Obama proposing letting the tax cuts expire for incomes over $250,000, count yourself lucky to be part of the 1.5% and quit complaining.
Spoooge:
You are a complete fucking moron.
Your monicker says it all.....
I'm guessing many a man load has hit you upside the face and probably concussed your bird brain.
Give up the cock, stop swallowing the spooge; try and conduct yourself as a man, you fucking homo.
Do you kiss your mama with that mouth?
Luck has nothing to do with my making more than $250K per year. It's called working 70-80 hours a week, being disciplined and frugal. I pay 15% self employment tax on my first 106K, soon to be 39.5% Federal and 4.6% state. The government does not deserve to take a penny more than they are already taking. I don't have a pension, I pay my family's health insurance. Why should I give the governent more of my money to piss away on crony boondoggles like Solyndra?
The are lots of low wage earners who work multiple part time no benefit jobs at minimum wage who work hard, and still have to pay payroll and state taxes out of their meager earnings.
I think people like you in the $379,151 & over bracket can afford to pay an extra 4.5%. Since you live frugally, you will probably hardly notice it. You should be happy that your rate will still be historically low for top bracket earners:
http://i158.photobucket.com/albums/t106/OnlyObvious/Tax_Rates/TopTaxBrac...
Also, maybe you should stop and smell the roses a little. 70-80 hours a week of working? If you sleep for 50, eat for 20, you have less than 20 yours left in your week to do everything else. What kind of life is that? Either you really love your job or money is your god.
Everyone's taxes are going up in 2013.
STFU... Nebbish AH
You sound like a neb; is that your signature?
I'm a little confused by the "real soon" part. Japan has been dragging along for what, 30 something years now. How long did it take Rome before the barbarians were at the gate and it was open.
The barbarians are already here in the form of unskilled immigrants hostile to the US whose allegiances are to their homeland and citizen moochers who exist by sucking on the government tit. When things start to fall apart, these barbarians will become very dangerous. Get bullets while you still can.
Have a beer man, shout , and sit in an armchair for a while.
Instead of shouting, i'm planning the Thanksgiving menu, budgeting for the gas to and from the ole home place and having good thoughts about seeing the West Texas tribe clan. Oh, can white people be in tribes? Calling EW, did you check the box on the Senate, or NOT?
Your really are an angry guy and a kind of a prick.
That's "you're". I should have red carded you spelling but I didn't.
Oops. Missed a key stroke. That's "I should have red carded your spelling but I didn't".
Not angry.
May be described as a prick.
Just letting those who believe in the nanny state where they should go to get help.
The government can not and will not solve any one's problems!
That's a ridiculous oversimplification of things and the Red Cross isn't a gov't organization. Ugh. Never had much use for other people in my personal life whose main outlook in life is 'screw other people because I'm fine.'
My point is actions have consequences.
My problem is with fucktards like you, too dumb to comprehend a sentence.
The Red Cross has very little to do with my statement.
I vote for you as the biggest fucktard with the lowest IQ.
the lowest IQ.... Describes you perfectly spooz...
This is why I'm glad I live in NH. Beautiful nature, guns and 0% state income and sales taxes. Some of the best schools in the country. Property taxes here are high, but you don't need to live in a million dollar hole in the wall here either. And if you're like me who is a frugal physician, I'd rather take a hit on property taxes and live modestly than pay income taxes on my hard earned money.
Live free or die.
i'm curious were you born and riased in NH or did you move there for the reasons you described?
Not that your asking me, but I moved to NH for the reasons the Doc described.
sorry i should have phrased that more directly and my hat's off to you for making that move. It's impressive to see someone up and re root themselves like you did. I have been contemplating it. It's not easy.
edit-my apologies, checking this from my phone, it kept knocking me offline and i did not see below that u moved from Mass until just now
Northeast sux, all that is wrong with our country has come from that quadrant of the US...
Well, Kansas my whole life... 3 years in mass and I couldn't take it anymore... then NH was the best move after evaluating many places if it make a difference :)
Northern New Jersey is just gorgeous, fonz. You should check it out.
Right there with ya Doc.... as a frugal engineer ect... you can live a pretty good life. Escaped from Mass after a few years of living there when I was younger.
Good natured and well prepared people I would add as well. As long as you stay away from southern NH!
FYI - I can barely fit into the local gun store anymore... it's packed EVERY time I go there.
Ummm, how many fat people can you fit into a gun store?