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Spend, Borrow, Tax

ilene's picture




 

“In war, there are no unwounded soldiers.”

Jose Narosky

Spend, Borrow, Tax

Market Shadows Newsletter (11/12/12)

Included in this week's newsletter:

 

Excerpts:

Event Horizons: Bailouts, Cliffs and a Country Divided

Traders aren’t liking the uncertainty of standing at the edge of a precipice, in the latest episode of the political saga Spend, Borrow, Tax.

Big Fat Greek Bailout Continues

The Greek Parliament voted to adopt the nation’s 2013 proposed budget, including the steep austerity cuts required for Greece to receive the next installment of its much needed bailout. 

The budget will save 13.5 billion euros over the next two years, raise the retirement age from 65 to 67, and cut pensions by 5% to 15%. It will also reduce salaries in the public sector by as much as 30%, eliminate bonuses, and change labor laws.

The Greek people are furious about the multiple rounds of belt-tightening, with cuts to pensions, pay, and jobs. Unemployment is over 25%. 

The country’s two largest trade unions urged members to protest the cuts and new plans to eliminate thousands of public sector jobs. As many as 70,000 people demonstrated outside the parliament in Athens, with people throwing Molotov cocktails and shouting anti-austerity slogans. Police fought back with tear gas. (Greek Parliament takes up ‘bailout’ budgetGreece battles to avert €5bn default)

While Parliament approved the budget, members of the Troika (the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund) haven’t agreed on the release of the money.

On Monday, the Financial Times reported,

Greece is battling to raise funds to avoid defaulting on a €5bn debt repayment this week as international lenders remained deadlocked over how to reduce its overall debt even as Athens won parliamentary approval for its 2013 austerity budget.

The country’s debt management office has announced plans to cover the €5bn debt through a treasury bill auction on Tuesday, but Greek banks expected to buy the issue can only raise about €3.5bn of collateral acceptable to the European Central Bank, according to two senior Athens bankers…

 

The ECB has not given permission for Greece to maintain a temporary €17bn ceiling for T-bill issuance due to be reduced this month to €12bn, leaving the country without a financial safety net while it waits for a much-delayed €31.5bn aid payment from international lenders. (Greece battles to avert €5bn default)

Once Upon A Fiscal Cliff

Fast Money reported, "Two of the most influential market prognosticators today — Pimco’s Bill Gross and Goldman Sachs’s Jim O’Neill — both warned clients over the weekend of the perils of the coming “fiscal cliff,” when tax increases and spending cuts kick in at the end of the year..." (‘Fiscal Cliff’ Mess Is a ‘Grand Canyon’: Bill Gross)

Screen Shot 2012 11 11 at 1.37.28 PM Spend, Borrow, Tax

 

We predict a lot of handwringing and theatrics. Our politicians will strut and fret their hour upon the stage and then be heard no more, until the next time. Classic case of “a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” (Macbeth) 

As Russ Winter of Winter Watch at Wall Street Examiner opines,

The opening positions of the actors in the fiscal cliff scam appear intractable and also to be much ado about nothing. The impact ($42 bn) of allowing expiration of the Bush tax cuts on those making over $250k is a spit in the ocean in comparison to the $3.6 trillion the government spends each year. Don’t misunderstand, I am not arguing that this restored tax shouldn’t be done as an element of sounder fiscal policy. I am simply suggesting it really doesn’t amount to a hill of beans.

 

Of course my theory all along is that this is a pretend game that carries out a facade that there are actually ‘two parties’ in Congress who are standing on some principles. That is not the case, so as this Kabuki Theater gets played out, remember the ultimate goal is to protect the looting interests of the kleptocratic oligarchs who really call the shots. Already, reference to a “small package”, or a “down payment” on a “deal” is becoming common. (A Fiscal Cliff Deal, Much Ado About Nothing)

Even if there is no final resolution during Congress’s lame duck session, there will be an eventual compromise that leaves no one happy. Then another debt ceiling drama will ensue.

The “cliff” consists of a series of tax and expenditure measures which have already been legislated to take effect on 1 January 2013, and which taken together would tighten fiscal policy by $502 billion in 2013, and $682 billion in 2014 (3.9 per cent of GDP). Legislation has to be amended if this is not going to take place, which is why both parties have the ability to block progress. Unless the House Republicans agree on a compromise with the Senate Democrats, and the President, this fiscal package will be automatically triggered. Furthermore, the federal debt ceiling needs to be increased in the next couple of months, which also gives the House Republicans the kind of blocking power they used in July 2011. (Anatomy of the US fiscal cliff)

As 2012 comes to an end, and the country fractures more deeply along party lines, consider these words:

The mood of the country continues to blacken. A simmering anger boils beneath the surface of an everyday façade of normalcy. The middle class majority is being squeezed in a vice, with the rich powerful plutocrats on Wall Street and in Washington DC stealing their hard earned net worth through financial scams, the gutting of our industrial base and a tax system designed to benefit those who write the laws on one side and the parasitic willfully ignorant underclass that is sustained only through the extraction of taxes from the working middle class on the other side. Our society has become a hunger games tournament, with the few benefitting while the many scramble to survive. The stench of class warfare is in the air. The generational resentment and rage is palatable as the Millenial generation has taken on a trillion dollars of student loan debt at the behest of the Federal government, Wall Street and older generations, only to graduate into a jobless economy. The generational contract has been broken, as the older generations will not or cannot leave the workforce due to their own financial missteps. Younger generations are being denied entry level positions, even as the older generations expect them to fund their retirements and healthcare. This presidential election will only exacerbate the anger, disappointment, bitterness and fury among the populace, no matter who wins. ~ Strauss & Howe, 1997.

****

Popularly Accepted Election-Related Expectations

By Paul Price

Many predictions about investor behavior have been widely broadcast. They have been spoken about with such frequency that they’ve become accepted as fact. I’d like to challenge a few of them here.

It is probably true that the federal income tax on dividends and capital gains will be higher in 2013 than it is currently.

With that in mind, Wednesday’s 313 point drop in the DJIA likely served to ingrain and reinforce people’s belief that the actions described below are sure to happen...

Click on this link to get to the full newsletter. 

 

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Tue, 11/13/2012 - 21:27 | 2978327 EcoJoker
EcoJoker's picture

How is this written in 1997 when the hunger games came out in 2008?  WTF

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:32 | 2976347 sbenard
sbenard's picture

And he didn't even mention the debt black hole that is going to swallow us whole within the next year or two.

Calamity is certainty. Plan and prepare accordingly!

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 15:25 | 2977039 Cole Younger
Cole Younger's picture

Ben Franklynn said something to the affect that those who are not prepared are those who are prepared to fail.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 20:26 | 2978127 SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON's picture

" We're fucked and we know it, and we really wanna show it, we're fucked and we know it, clap your hands. "

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:13 | 2976248 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Should read; Spend, Borrow, Tax, and keep on spending because the welfare/entitlement state knows know end.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:32 | 2975839 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2009/06/14/trib-reruns-1934-cartoon-planned-economy-or-planned-destruction

Notice the Ickes name tag on the fellow with the shovel. His great grandson is Harold Ickes from the Clinton administration, the progressives both D and R have been at work for a hundred years.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:48 | 2975922 mr1963
mr1963's picture

The Ickes name goes a lot farther back than Clinton, Ickes senior was a senior administration figure for HUD way back in the 60's and primarily responsible for the great catastophe known as low income housing. Also made a ton of money on emminent domain on the south side of chicago and the land grab for both University of Chicago and Michael Reese hospital.

The Icke's have been stealing from the public trough for generations...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:33 | 2975838 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

double post, too much coffee...

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:21 | 2975815 10mm
10mm's picture

Speaking of the parasitic wilfully ignorant.Yesterday,in broke Harrisburg,Pa,i witnessed across the street from the Gov's residence tables set up in front of a laundramat with signs displaying assistance for SSI,Food Stamps,and whatever is out there.Un fuckin real.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 10:35 | 2975853 Winston of Oceania
Winston of Oceania's picture

Can't have the sheeple see soup lines now can we.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:55 | 2975731 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Hopefully the Governors if they are smart will now understand that the worse things are the better their chances at reelection. Lets see how bad they can make things get....maybe one can even get 100% of the vote.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:46 | 2975703 johnQpublic
johnQpublic's picture

a tax system designed to benefit those who write the laws on one side and the parasitic willfully ignorant underclass that is sustained only through the extraction of taxes from the working middle class on the other side

 

considering the tax system is skewed to favor the uber rich, they still seem to pay a bunch of money in taxes most of the time, that parasitic underclass however...not so much

seems like its time for a bit of eugenics

sterilization or no welfare

otherwise they just keep breeding more of the same

lol

we'll never see a republican president again

ever

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:47 | 2977988 koncaswatch
koncaswatch's picture

I don't care if I ever see a Republican Prez again (at least not the present day breed of Republican); I  was hoping for the possibility of a Libertarian... I'll have to agree with your premise, Democrats as far as the eye can see is in our future.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 09:37 | 2975674 tango
tango's picture

Great read.  The US is being transformed into California:  Voters support those who promise the most, fewer producers are squeezed for larger and larger number of zombies and those hurt the most were the most fervent supporters of those who hurt them.  This process is unstoppable until it reaches the tipping point.  Ominously, the tax & spend states (IL, CA, NY, etc) saw sharp rises in income inequality, poverty and dependence.  The economic ignorance in this nation is frightening and actively abetted by the political and media class. 

 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:46 | 2976413 Midas
Midas's picture

Good line, I heard that decades ago, but had forgotten it.  Where California goes the US follows, for good and bad.  I don't know what the good was supposed to be, maybe Ronnie Ray-gun.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 19:57 | 2978021 knukles
knukles's picture

Just you guys wait, we got some real jewels to follow up on Nazipelousy, Mad Max Waters and the like.  Feel blessed.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 12:03 | 2976195 rehypothecator
rehypothecator's picture

When the people who vote for a living outnumber those who work for a living, a phase transition occurs.  Then no one who ever promises fewer goodies than the other guy will ever win another election, and the descent into bankruptcy accelerates as the fraction of productive people dwindles through flight, going galt, or joining in the plunder.  It's the economic Event Horizon.  We've probably just crossed it. 

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 08:45 | 2975583 Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

From: "Fisco inferno"

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 15:14 | 2976996 ilene
ilene's picture

I like that, can I borrow it one of these days?

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 07:49 | 2975509 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

+1 for Fiscokiller

We're on the road to perdition.

Tue, 11/13/2012 - 03:16 | 2975370 Western
Western's picture

False breakout to the downside or upside? Either way your dollars are just pieces of paper to keep you warm in the winters of the future, unless of course they're digital and trapped inside your bank account. LOL

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