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Deconstructing The Most Accurate Apple Analysis Ever Made - Share Price, Market Share, Strategy and All

Reggie Middleton's picture





 

 

 

Last Friday I posted Deconstructing The Most Hated Trade Of The Decade, The 375% BoomBustBlog Apple Call!!, wherein I outlined the profitability of the BoomBustBlog Apple research from a trading perspective. This crux of that article was to debunk the widely assumed notion that I was bearish on Apple's share price for 2 years. The reality of the matter was that the paid research and opinion clearly supported much of Apple's share price until right about the last earnings report, until I notably went bearish and Apple promptly lost 25%.

Notice how this chart shows subscription research would have provided ample profits LONG and short, with the long presumed to be unleverred as a straight stock purchase. This is to put to bed any naysayers. Now, as to whether my many proclamations over the last two years regarding Apple were able to hold water, we let the facts speak on the reasoning behind the call and the accuracy of my call in the deterioration of Apple's margins, market share and status. The following was a document that was only available to paid subscribers (published in late 2010) but now is freely available since its message has come to pass. As you read this, please keep in mind that the document was published a year and a half ago, even though it does seem like it is recent. I have just released fresh research on Apple that details the lower bounds (pessimistic scenario) that I see for the share price. Subscribers can access it here Apple 4Q2012 update professional & institutionaland Apple 4Q2012 update - retail).

If after reading the article linked in the first sentence and the material below, and you believe that I'm the best thing since Wall Street brokerages were private partnerships that could squander other peoples capital at insanely levered levels while misleading muppets with inanely bullshit analysis and sales pitches to 89% losses on their recommendations(reference Multiple Muppet Mashing Leaves Groupon Shareholders Holding The Bag After 89% Off IPO Coupon) just to get paid multi-million dollar bonuses instead of jsil time, then feel free to subscribe here

Click any graphic to enlarge.

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GS3-GrowthGS3-Growth

As very accurately predicted in our report published above over a year ago, Samsung has eclipsed Apple in smartphone sales and capability!

iphone vs samsung salesiphone vs samsung sales  iphone vs samsung sales2iphone vs samsung sales2

 

 

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Fri, 11/16/2012 - 02:09 | Link to Comment IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

There are only five sentences in this article where RM did NOT refer to himself.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 08:21 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Or you could take a look at the NASDAQ100 back on October 1, 2012 and see that a near term top, at least, was in place and it was a good time to take profit.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/nasdaq-100-daily-october-01-2012/

 

Virtually all stocks will follow their associated index, like the Dow Jones, NASDAQ100 and SP500.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 06:50 | Link to Comment FunkyOldGeezer
FunkyOldGeezer's picture

So, Reggie, are you saying you have been deliberately duplicious in your dealings?

Your freebie diatribes have been all about an overpriced Apple being trounced by Andoid/Samsung etc and yet your private calls have been the polar opposite? If I'd been interested in Apple, I probably would have shorted it ages ago, based on your freebie articles, because you have been so bearish Apple for so long and yet all the time your paid subscription would have been less gladitorial and more measured in its approach.

I can't see that you come out of this smelling of roses, not by any stretch of the imagination. He who bluffs is capable of double bluffing. Personally speaking, any creedence you had has been totally wiped.

 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 08:11 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

that's nonsense. Everything I said in my public.posts have come true.... Everything. If you wanted to make an investment move on Apple you should've subscribed, not shorted Apple or went long Google. My not giving valuations out for free is not duplicitous, it is simply business. You listened to guys like ZeroGovt.., not me if you went ahead and shorted Apple after reading my posts.I

guess

it's irrelevant that both my free posts and subscription research were on.the money, now I have to work for free and give away.the crown jewels, right?

 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 04:01 | Link to Comment WaEver
WaEver's picture

Hubris et Nemesis

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 00:56 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

If you owned it since the '09 lows this line of discussion means little.  You drop the mic and walk off the stage.  You are a winner, 20% pullback from the highs or not.

If you owned it since when Jobs came back to the company for "Round 2" you aren't even on this board.  You are being driven around in your limo asking passers-by if they have any Grey Poupon.

If you bought it at $700 thinking it was shortly going to $1000...... my condolances.

Apple is the greatest gadget company in the history of the universe.  But it's still just a gadget company.  Nothing ties their customers to them in the long term.  When something better comes out, people move to it.  Microsoft has a greater ability to lock their customer base in to new technology generations than Apple does.

Like so many hot cutting-edge technology companies, I fear Apple will age more like milk than a fine wine from here out.

 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 08:02 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

the point being who will age/sour faster, Apple or the copy-cat clowns GOOfy and Microshite who have a track record of monopolism (you call it quaintly 'lock-in') that shove garbage down consumers throats.

Apple has a history of consumate leadership and ability to 'Wow' customers then further please them with uber-reliable bug-free living 

Microshit is the single biggest scandal in tek history, every product a bug-ridden lemon.

GOOfy are now chucking red-ink walking-dead zombies into the market place, giveaways stuffed in manufacturers cornflake boxes without a price tag (proof positive of pure desperation). In additon they're lobbying Govt hard to shove another tek-terror down our throats, GOOfy-Driver, a zombie chip-set to take away our freedom to drive

You decide who is in rude good health and who is a bunch of sickos 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:57 | Link to Comment kedi
kedi's picture

Apple will suffer the same fate as popular rock bands do. Apple has always been inovative and continues to be. But like an inovative rock band they at first have a small following of those that have discovered them. It grows. Then they reach a period of quite mass but still considered on the fringe popularity. They are still cool and more people are noticing it. Then they reach rock stardom. Top of the charts. Other bands have caught up to their style the genre is getting crowded, harder to sound like Apple with a herd of Apple sound alikes. Apple even went back to the rock roots of computing when they got compatible with the PC hardware. Being more in tune with the mainstream audience. But everyone has caught up. Apple is losing it's edge as the hip alternative thing. It's starting to get a little into it's classic rock stage. Going to be hard to top the charts. Apple's edge was always in it's use of cutting edge tech while others were catering to the standard no patents PC hardware and Microsoft OS framework that was engraved in that hardware. Apple is fast becoming a part of the herd. It is not very far ahead in OS and software. It is definitely in the herd as far as internal hardware. They still lead in external hardware fashion, but that is a fickle of the moment thing.

Apple will soon have no lead in chic, alternative, hipster type hype. It is almost currently in the herd as far as internal tech, software and OS is concerned. Their rock star staus/hype is almost gone. Sales will slow.

Blackberry suffered this scenario on a much shorter timescale, focused more finely on one product. Apple's fashion and cool bashed Blackberry. Both of them are now back to slugging it out with the herd.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 07:55 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

I agree Apple will have a lifecycle like any other corporate but just to repeat my point made elsewhere, whose lifecycle is looking like heading toward the graveyard first?

Apple, who has led for over a decade with consumate cool and historically high profits

or the copy-cats at GOOn and Microshit, one chucks zombie products bleeding from the eyeballs into themarket and the other isn't even in the Mobile market yet they're so far behind 

I'm all for realism but the red-ink-loving Reggie and his one-eyed-twat focus on Apple, while eulogising bleeding zombies like Android, just makes this Apple-hating series beyond a farce. Every piece of dirt he throws at Apple boomerangs back on what a bunch of shambolic clowns the competition (cough) are put under the same microscope.

He's throwing stones in glasshouses, or in Reggies narccistic case, throwing at mirrors

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 22:56 | Link to Comment Kina
Kina's picture

Who would have thought Apple product owners would treat it like a religion and get so deffensive?

 

Put the fanboyism away, be rational. I have owned Nokia, iphone, Sonny Ericson and now Samsung phones. Whatever is best at the time I get.

 

I now have a Galaxy Note 2 - and it craps over everything out there right now.  I can well understand why the Samsung Galaxy S3 is so popular (basically a smaller Note 2 withoug the s-pen) - it is the best marriage out there of software, hardware and style... at the moment. And it looks as though Samsung are going to start hammering nails into Apple's coffin as fast as they can while they can....by providing latest software upgrades to a number of their earlier phones as well.

 

This all has to be good for the markets right? I mean open and fair competition of hardward, softer, design and so forth???

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:34 | Link to Comment sitenine
sitenine's picture

You sound despetate for subscribers Reggie, and you think talking your APPL analysis is going to help?  You haven't seen, predicted, or analyzed jack shit that everyone else didn't already know for free.  Let me ask you a serious question though.  Are you still still 'trading' this 'market', or are you just buying the QE news?  Nevermind actually, it's pretty obvious.  Here's a tip for you (and I wont even make you subscribe), get the fuck out of this casino while you still can and buy yourself a nice stack, sit on it, and thank me later.

Needless to say, I won't be subscribing anytime soon...

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

"This is to put to bed any naysayers."

Naysayers still wide awake Reg, isn't it your bedtime clinging to your GOOfy teddy?

"..wherein I outlined the profitability of the BoomBustBlog Apple research from a trading perspective.."

The Apple share price rises and falls with the Nasdaq, not your calls. The proof is in your hero at the GOOn squad which also rises and falls with the Nasdaq.

Your fundamental calls on Apple has nothing to do with it. Both Apple and GOOfy peaked just after September and started their declines. Did you make the exact same fundamental calls on GOOfy as Apple? ...hardly likely with your GOOn bias

the Nasdag followed, being an averaging index of all the stocks included, a week later in mid-September.  

"..we let the facts speak on the reasoning behind the call and the accuracy of my call in the deterioration of Apple's margins, market share and status."

Your calls on Apples margins are good, on GOOfy's they're vacant/AWOL with the fairies. Where are they Reg, stuck in your throat?

Your calls on market share is hung on a thin branch that Apple gives a shit. Apple made the iPhone market and want the top-end, they don't want the cheap as chips throwaway in manufacturers packets of cornflakes (like your trash-biz hero, GOOfy). Apple are not defending volume, they're defending their status as top brand which provides top end profitability (remember that loser?)

As a man of maths you eulogise GOOn's Android yet it makes no profits at all. You're either deaf as a brick wall or a comedic clown playing a pretence you're a man of maths (ie. an Enron accountant). You've shot yourself in the foot and stabbed it for good measure with your fiery sword of truth.

Regards "status" ...that was never going to be challanged by your trashing dumping desperate heros over at the GOOn squad who have been swimming in red ink since Search. Now even their Ad-Rev biz model is having to be supported by sucking on previous years profits. They're crumbling with the economy.

You're the man of maths, logic and reason. Your reply as GOOfy missed and you missed the GOOn misses that without fail you'd trumpet here 7 times a piece if it were Apple, and trumpeted they're really a "hedge fund".

You invite ridicule, you deserve it with your comical comments

How much is GOOfy's year-on-year losses on their latest zombie-product Android?

How's "margin compression" going on the GOOn squads latest turkey Reg?

You gonna continue your narcisstic answering your own softball questions to make yourself look something higher-order than a clown or answer some tough/fair questions on your crumbling, dumping, ever-more desperate hero?

...or do your usual, ignore them and sneek off to bed hugging your GOOfy teddy in a sulk... again??

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:07 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

STFU troll.

I understand you are a fanboi but even fanbois know when someone just shoved a big black cock up their ass.

In your case, it's Reggie's. 

Get over it, and next time at least ask him to use vaseline.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 07:57 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Tarax  -  before you guff do understand Reggie has a tiny one and it only gets stiff when he sees a stiffy (his hero, the deathly zombie product, Android)

I'm alive and kicking like iPhone (though not as clever) which is a BIG turn-off for this red=bed, zero=hero fiscal loser

tell you what, top yourself, I'll bet you Reg will be around in minutes to shag you... if he ain't i'll make it up to you somehow, i'll help dig your grave

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:18 | Link to Comment jimijon
jimijon's picture

You STFU Troll!

Apple is just getting warmed up. And oh, big surprise, everyone was all in so now it is down with ALL the indexes, etc.

And this is some big call by Reggie?! Sheesh. Apple is innovating in chips, softward, and the tablet have enormous pick up in the corporate and medical worlds now. This is real and it keeps me employed.

Then next year we start the pro/imac/software cycle along with some new stuff.

Goog vs. Apple.... which one Reggie in the next six months?! Well.. call it and call it here now.

Margin compression? Google and ads? mobile is killing them.

Cheers

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:40 | Link to Comment taraxias
taraxias's picture

Sorry fanboi, did I offend you?

If you think it hurts now, you're in for a lot more pain.

I'm not talking about Reggie's big dick up your ass, I'm talking about the market position you are married to but are unable to change your mind on continuing to blow up in your face.

Lower to mid 400s by middle of next year. Trade it instead of fondling that ipad and shoving that iPhone on vibrate mode deeper up your ass. 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:34 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Tarax  -  if you think Apple's in bad shape just wait on Reggie's hero GOOfy to hobble up here. They've one leg to stand on, Ad-Rev, that's being propped up sucking on previous years profits and their only other major product, the pissing red ink Android, is a zombie sucking off their only working leg too

we're all for swinging big dicks around here at big brands aren't we? Just some have a class act not a wheezing nags dick to swing ...better duck dickhed

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment jimijon
jimijon's picture

I have no market position in Apple besides the business corporations are giving me.

Your writing is definitely one of transference and projection. Maybe it is time for you to come out of the closet?

Finally, I just like to play Goog vs Apple with Reggie. Apple is winning and Goog is now losing.

As far as projects go... index it to the NASDAQ. What will be the over under the middle of next year? And give me the same with Goog. Heck, better yet, let Reggie give us the under/over.

cheers

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 22:01 | Link to Comment unrulian
unrulian's picture

...what's next for apple..pink case? 6.9 inch screen? fuck off.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:13 | Link to Comment jimijon
jimijon's picture

Ah yes... fuck off. I guess that means I should just go dumb and mute and worship all apple haters.

Crimey, I remember you same people telling how Apple should just be split up. Or that they were doomed, or that the iMac was stupid, or that Sony or ? beat the shit out of the iPod, or how Ballmer laughed at Apple getting into the phone biz.

I have a sneaky suspicion that a lot of you haterz are just jealous you didn't reap the profits of the Apple trade. 

As far as innovation goes... yea you're right. There is nothing left for Apple but a new fruity color.

Hey TD, can we get our math equation back? The brains on here are getting as atrophied as the Red/Blue worshippers.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:51 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

Deconstructing The Most Accurate Apple Analysis Ever Made - Share Price, Market Share, Strategy and All

 

'GOOfy-Lover Over Leverages Mirror With Apple-Hater Series'

 

(this Demo by The Short'n'Snappy Headline Inc Corp) 

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:10 | Link to Comment homersimpson
homersimpson's picture

Looks like all you haters of Reggie's AAPL proclamations look pretty stupid right now saying that Reggie shorted the past 2 years. Give him his due - he was right, and you folks that said Reggie was short for the past 2 years were dead wrong.

Some of you folks still don't understand the concept of free information vs paid subscription.. in other words, your AAPL attacks on Reg were simply gutless and more importantly, uncalled for because he never said what you APPL long clowns thought.

If there is financial info worth paying for, Reggie is probably the guy. John Mauldin isn't bad, either.

Anyways - way to shut up the AAPL clueless.. and great job on your AAPL analysis. Dead on, as usual.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:26 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

You clearly haven't been paying attention for the past 2 years.  Reggie is the king of cherry picking.  He throws so much stuff out there and cherry picks.  His number one call this year is getting crushed by apple.  Does anyone fucking understand this???

DOES EVERYONE UNDERSTAND that Reggie's NUMERO UNO pick is getting crushed by Apple this year????

The guys is saying he's been right all along and his number one pick is losing by 30 fucking times!!!

Hey Reggie, do something real simple.  Post the video and then give the YTD's of google and apple as a measuring stick.  Straight forward and easy to understand.

 

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 00:45 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

It is obvious that you're the one that doesn't understand. The commenter above said that most people can't seem to understand the difference between free info and paid research. You have absolutely no idea what my research says, because it's paid research and you didn't pay.

Apparently you have absolutely no idea what my top pick is or if I even have a top pick. Aren't you one of those guys who've been saying I've been wrong for two years straight on Apple? Now that I've proven you wrong the discussion is now about Google! In a Apple analysis nonetheless??? And even then your making the same mistake that you did with Apple, and that is confusing what you may hear on CNBC for free with high end paid analysis.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 08:13 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

an accountant who eulogises red-ink zombies like Android and disses highly profitable brilliant products like iPhone

we know where you're coming from Reggie, the clown circus, even if you're too bitter and twisted and see anymore chucking out your Apple-hater series while shooting yourself in your size 19 boots every step of the GOOfy way

keep the commercial clowning going son, you're an accountant that's found your Enron (grave). Keep digging, it's nothing but a very funny behaviour pattern of a shill

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Reggie Middleton
Reggie Middleton's picture

Thank you my friend. It's good to have someone actually read the material and take a reality check, but actually using reality.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 22:31 | Link to Comment I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Everyone knew 2nd and 3rd quarters were going to be soft.  Why didn't you wait for the 4th quarter numbers to come out and talk your book??

And BTW, your number one call at the beginning of the year (GOOG) that you made on television on CNBC isn't even beating apple!!!  YOU COULD PICK any stock in the fucking world and the one you picked isn't even beating apple and you are doing ANOTHER touchdown dance.  And you are talking this nonsense and timing it before apple's biggest quarter.  Apple is up 32% ytd BTW.  Google is up 1%.

Apple is doing 30x better than your number one pick.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=goog&hl=en&ei=KlOkUND0CMm50QGPNw

And please make us a list of companies that made more than 8 billion 3rd quarter.

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 23:17 | Link to Comment jimijon
jimijon's picture

I have consistently called him out on the Apple vs Goog... I think I even threw in Facebook at $19.

LOL

Listen, no one stays on top forever, but as far as quality execution goes, Apple is kicking ass.

Just saying and at around $520 I wouldn't mind buying leaps on Apple. But right now I am playing the end of prohibition trade with HEMP and MJNA. 

Cheers

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:48 | Link to Comment notbot
notbot's picture

I know a guy like you at a fund.  When you ask him, he's always "short term bullish, medium term bearish" or vice versa.  

And then come year-end review, he was NEVER wrong. Go figure.

 

 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:56 | Link to Comment Whoa Black Barry
Whoa Black Barry's picture

Did you nail Lauren yet?

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

No chance ...Reggie has a nasty case of fiscal-sexed necrophilia from his early days training as a bookeeper at Enron. If it's not pissing blood (red ink) he can't get a stiffy (he only likes stiffs like Android)

Lauren or commercial products that can walk on their own 2 lovely legs like iPhone that ooze life and in the latter case, big smooth profits and Reg couldn't get a hard-on even with a Big Mac sized Viagra. Show him a loser product dripping in losses like his beloved walking-dead-zombie Android lying on a cold slab in A&E and 'instant-woody'

Reggie loves losers as he's made all too plain here, the deader the better

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 20:03 | Link to Comment EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

You're insulting comments are akin to a monkey wildly throwing his feces around in a room full of people. Nobody likes that monkey.

Thu, 11/15/2012 - 02:59 | Link to Comment roadlust
roadlust's picture

And Android WILL be the end of AAPL.  There's no way AAPL can compete with it now.  (In fact, look out MSFT.  Google will eventually eat Windows for lunch, too).

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 15:12 | Link to Comment lunaticfringe
lunaticfringe's picture

This just in. Steve Jobs died. 

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

His bad health was why I never bought the stock. When he died all the Apple fanboys just yawned and the stock kept rising in price. They learned nothing in the dotcom crash.....sell high idiots....

Wed, 11/14/2012 - 18:37 | Link to Comment lilimarlene1
lilimarlene1's picture

I had dealings with a rich guy who made a bundle off Apple. We were at lunch in January of 2010 and I said, "gee too bad about Steve Jobs' pancreatic cancer, what a shame" and he said "what!?!"

This was a guy who checked his Iphone every five minutes for share price.

Tool.

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