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The Relationships Between Wall Street, the Fed, and Politicians Are Crumbling
People often ask me how I can remain bearish when stocks continue to rally.
For one thing, I want to note that one can be bearish, but still profit from the “current game,” or short-term trends that are in place. For example, while I am ultimately very bearish on the economy and on the markets, I positioned my clients to profit from the various trends of 2011 so that we saw a 9% return for the year vs. a 0% return for the S&P 500.
Having said that, the big picture reason why I’m bearish can be expressed as follows: the current situation that is allowing the market to rally is based on relationships and policies that are crumbling.
The relationships that most matter for stocks are those between the Federal Reserve, Wall Street, and the White House.
The policy that matters most is the Fed’s ability to convince the market that it can and will keep the markets up without letting inflation get out of control.
Regarding the relationships that matter, I’ve averred for months now that we are going to see them crumble. This process has already begun in the sense that we’ve seen:
- Key Wall Street players hiring famed defense attorneys (Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs)
- The Fed distancing itself from its responsibility for the Crisis by:
- Suing Goldman Sachs
- Opening itself to Q&A sessions and townhall meetings
- Having “pro Fed” editorials written in the Wall Street Journal
- Putting the blame for the Crisis and the US’s financial weakness on Congress’s shoulders
- Various members of Congress (especially Ron Paul) and GOP Presidential candidates taking aim at the Federal Reserve
Do not, for one minute, believe that the folks involved in the Crisis will get away with it. The only reason why we haven’t yet seen major players get slammed is because no one wants the system to crumble again. And the only way for the system to remain propped up is for the Powers That Be to appear to have things under control and be on good terms with one another.
However, eventually things will come unhinged again. Whether it’s Europe collapsing, or the US facing runaway inflation, or another stock market crash, etc, something will break and the Financial Crisis of 2008 will begin anew.
When this happens, the relationships between Wall Street, the Fed, and the White House will crumble to the point that some key figures are sacrificed.
Indeed, this process is already starting.
Fed Fights Subpoena on Bernanke
The Federal Reserve is fighting a subpoena from lawyers in a civil lawsuit who want the central bank's chairman, Ben Bernanke, to testify about conversations he had with Bank of America Corp. executives before the lender completed its purchase of Merrill Lynch & Co.
The three-year-old class-action suit alleges that the Charlotte, N.C., bank and Kenneth D. Lewis, then its chief executive, misled shareholders about ballooning losses at Merrill before the $19.4 billion acquisition was approved. The government provided $20 billion in U.S. aid after Bank of America officials told Mr. Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in December 2008 ...
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303717304577277712160795098.html
I’ve stated before that I believe Bernanke will face legal troubles in the coming months. The only reason he got a free pass before was because he was thought to have saved the system and capitalism. So, when it becomes evident that he actually didn’t do either of these things (another Crisis hits), expect to see Bernanke in the hot seat.
Indeed, things may already be accelerating here. Consider JP Morgan’s moves yesterday in which it announced ahead of the Fed’s release of its stress tests that it would be raising its dividend and issuing a $15 billion buyback program with Fed approval.
Jamie Dimon played this one beautifully. By including the “with Fed approval” phrase he made it appear that the Fed is in charge of JP Morgan’s business. However, by announcing that he wanted to raise JPM’s dividend and issue a buyback program he:
- Implicitly stated that JPM was in great shape and would pass the Fed stress test with flying colors.
- Indicates that JPM was depleting its capital, which goes against the Fed’s supposed claims that it wants banks to raise capital.
- Shows who’s really running the show in the markets (the Fed had to speed up the release of its stress test results as one by one the large banks released similar leaks to the press).
This last factor is key. Wall Street just publicly stated “we’ll do as we like, thank you very much” which undermines the view that the Fed is the one in charge of the markets. This is yet another illustration that the relationship between Wall Street and the Fed is not what it used to be.
This is a major political trend that needs to be watched closely as we approach the next Crisis as well as the Presidential election. Just how it will play out remains to be seen. But it is certain that dynamics these three groups (Wall Street, the Fed, the White House/ politicians) will be changing dramatically in the months to come. And when push comes to shove, eventually someone(s) will be sacrificed so that others can maintain control.
For more market and geo-politcal insights, swing by www.gainspainscapital.com
Best Regards,
Graham Summers
Chief Market Strategist
Phoenix Capital Research
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Steady though I've convergent thus far on acquisition relationships in which the dysfunction or questionable resonates mothers day messages, I'd like to add that certainly not all relationships are learning relationships marriage status
It is always a "pleasure" to see that there is folks worse off than the sheeple. The sheeple think that everything is fine. People with much worse delusions think that someone (IN THE GOVERNMENT! Or anywhere else... Insert big laugh here!) will be held responsible for anything.
Earth is flat, pigs can fly and Obama (insert any random name of whatever savior you might be worshiping at the moment) will save us all! Yes we could, but we won't!
Guys: There is only one responsible for this whole mess. That is YOU. Did YOU stop these criminals from gaining control over your lives? NO. Did you even try to stop them from completely taking control over the last few freedoms you had? NO. Did anyone even try to do something against the Goldman sucks likes after the last finacial crisis? NO. I bet you're even still with the same bank.
There is no difference between GM sucks and the government, they all sleep in the same bed.
The truth is a simple one. You are trying to find a scapegoat so that you can say: He/they did it! In reality the only one responsible is YOU. You voted for Bush and Obama, maybe you didn't even vote at all and therefore you supported the winner anyway. And you will be doing it again during the next elections.
For now America is still the country with the most guns around. Where are all the "heros", "patriots" and what so ever? Where are you defending your rights?
Stop whinging. You life in the mess you deserve.
The system will run smoothly 'til the end, because YOU allow it to happen. At the end only one will be rightfully paying for all that is happening right now:
Y O U.
Unless you do something against this shit, please shut the F*** up, will you?
I personally believe that there will have to be a collapse far worse then 2008 for major players in the financial crisis/fraud to face justice. The key players in the financial crisis are the de facto government and they will not fall unless there is major social unrest perhaps even rioting in some of our major cities. If there is a complete collapse like the German Weimar Republic then this could usher in a true democracy and a renaissance in the U.S. or it could lead to a military coup and dictatorship. This sounds far fetched perhaps until one looks to the history of other crumbling empires.
I never read phoenix capital contributions any more...just the comments. I do not know Grahams performance numbers but if he trades to his view/sentiment, he is deep underwater. Easily the most bearish scribe over the past 3 years. Or he was, what's he saying today? didn't bother reading it
Widowmaker to CPR: "Shut up and show us."
The Fed is printing these fucks out of the slammer.
Your logic makes no sense when every facet from top to bottom in your own words indicates the yielding of power these fucks have over the common good.
Remove that power and I might believe you, otherwise, the top is 100% insulated through political appointments NOT to have to face justice. Case and point the Fed-incest-fest and their crock of shit "mandates" of warm fuzzy feelings. BAC got $25B slap for $25T of fraud, paid with taxpayer money - what a breakdown that is!!
Every rule is routinely broken and there is zero being done about it. That tells this investor everything one needs to know about the buttfucks in goverment and pinstripe-accountability/enforcement totally out of control.
The system is an act, a total farse. Not one person goes to jail that is punishing all Americans.
Shut up until you Line em' up.
Actually Hamilton was gut shot, took him days to die. Seems like a good plan here, since Holder seems unlikely to turn the law onto his fellow cartel friends, regardless of how blatant their crimes.
Fishhawk
Hold 'em and Barry are the Cartel.
The Mexicans just serve as a cheap source of labor.
Did they not Arm Them?
Did they not open the borders all the way?
Barry never could kick that habit. He just found a cheaper source.
"That cocaine is a helluva drug."
sorry I do not see the evidence of what you talk about. instead I see the exact opposite, and the elites are circling the wagons, and using the propaganda machine to secure their position.
besides ron paul very few in either party questioln the fed, and the major news papers in general give the fed acomplete pass, with the worst being krugman.
Agree 100%. The self-described "elites" -- although they are just the dredges of society with stolen money, fancy titles, and bought-and-paid-for university degrees that double as wall decorations and flashy accessories--know very well that they are in trouble. However they are too stupid to know how to quit while they are ahead and cash out for a cushy retirement.
Instead, they will try to ride this one out to their eventual advantage as has always been the case for centuries. It will dawn on them that something is amiss, that the alibis are not going over as well as they always did before, but by the time they accept that we are on to them we will be climbing over the walls.
At that point things will change but only because they will be backed against the wall, and in fear and desperation will launch everything against us. But fear not and do not let up for they are cowards and will either turn tail and run in all directions like cockroaches or negotiate a favorable buyout.
In either case they must be marked or tagged as marauders and looters and under NO circumstances be allowed anywhere near power again as it is only a massive welfare racket for them.
All of this guys post should display the following warning:
DO NOT TRADE ON THIS INFORMATION
His posts have been consistently wrong for the past 2 years. Now he tells us that he positions his clients in the correct direction... Please somebody pull this guy from ZH
This is the relationship that matters:
After reading Dark Alliance, I started to study the extraordinary moneymaking business that DOJ and agencies like HUD had built in enforcement that really only made sense if in fact the government was entirely complicit in narcotics trafficking and related mortgage and mortgage securities fraud.
http://www.dunwalke.com/16_Financial_Coup_d-Etat.htm
Did I not read, just today, that Bank of America stock was up over 50% this year?
Interestingly, I used to read the Federalist Papers when I wanted to understand the Constitution. Now I read the Anti-Federalist Papers. Amazing that the Anti-Federalists predicted most of what is wrong with 21C America.
"Do not, for one minute, believe that the folks involved in the Crisis will get away with it."
All I need to do is to look at the MF Global debacle. As goes MF Global -- will go "the folks involved in the Crisis..."
Which means, ain't shit gonna happen to those who most deserve it ....ever!
yah, uh huh.
enforcement will sacrifice another martha stewart or perhaps another bernie madoff will confess again.to hide in jail from the gangsters he screwed.
nobody truly connected burns.... have they ever?
Well, yeah. I seem to recall A. Burr putting a well-deserved bullet into Alex Hamilton's head.
I disagree with the premise....these guys are not out there in cahoots to 'save the system' after an 'unforeseen economic catastrophy' at all. It was all planned, in order to give cover for monetizing the debt. Thats all.
Now whats next and when is anyones guess in how it goes down, but the endgame is collapsing the system for real this time. The only danger for the FED or politicians or 'regulators' is if they turn on each other and cut each others throats if the plan falls apart or goes wrong somehow and they panic. Its happened numerous times in the past after all.
Theyll never be 'brought to justice' unless its by the barbarian hordes with ropes.
Errm, yes, and who is one of the occupants of seats on the Fed Board? One Mister Jamie Dimon. Interesting.
DavidC
Bankster rats fleeing or being fired....320 so far.
http://americankabuki.blogspot.com/p/131-resignations-from-world-banks.html
Sorry, no disrespect to rats.
an interesting premise..having dismissed the possibility of any credible justice being delivered upon this cabal of thieves by any external agency and realizing that corruption is so deeply engrained and endemic in the incestuous, illicit union of corporate controlled media and government, there is the unfailing proclivity of treachery and self preservation in the human species which might incline towards a self immolating feeding frenzy among the predatory and parasitical vermin which have battened themselves upon society and the body politic.
Mr. Farmer, are you in a competition with Tyler for the world's longest sentence?
No they are not. Not by a long shot.
The article merely povides an example of the traditional relationships between The Fed, banks and the US public are fraying on the seams.
It is all building to a crescendo while the Big Media plays the dentists office music.
So...will the US Gov't ban gold holdings? Will they effectively twist the debt out 100 years (shoot all the garbage into outer space) !
The feeling is that they will pull one last desparate move before the debt collapse and subsequent (hyper?) inflation.
Quick momo trades thern take profits and sit in cash. Buy and hold is for the sheeple who attach a modicum of cred to CNBC.
Some kids on the train yesterday where astonished to learn that the POTUS only makes $250K/year. Even they knew, "$250K/year? Man's that's some bullshit...with all of the damn shit you gotta deal with!"
Imagine when they learn that all POTUS since JFK really have no say in how the country is run.....
"Even they knew, "$250K/year? Man's that's some bullshit...with all of the damn shit you gotta deal with!""
Oh, let's just leave Mrs. Obungle out of this and take the high road.
Due to the expert caretaking of our US dollar by the Fed, the Presidential salary was raised by Slick Willie to 400 thou/year...
bonus question: How any times has what is described in the bolded part happened?And Bullshit Barry is over paid by $249,999.99
That is what those kids should have been astonished about...
Obama's Wall Street Inner Circle
http://americanfuturefund.com/wallstreet/
*Ad most likely paid for by Wall Street's Repuglican branch office...*
"Jamie Dimon played this one beautifully."
MF Global
I'm waiting for Jamie Dimon's Nixon moment:
"In a sign of the nervousness surrounding Mr. Panetta’s trip, the Marines and other troops who were waiting in a tent for the defense secretary to speak were abruptly asked by their commander to get up, place their weapons — M-16 and M-4 automatic rifles and 9-mm pistols — outside the tent and then return unarmed. The commander, Sgt. Maj. Brandon Hall, told reporters he was acting on orders from superiors.
“All I know is, I was told to get the weapons out,” he said. Asked why, he replied, “Somebody got itchy, that’s all I’ve got to say. Somebody got itchy; we just adjust.”
Normally, American forces in Afghanistan keep their weapons with them when the defense secretary visits and speaks to them. "
NYTIMES
This is a good sign,imo. You can't have honest government if it does not fear the citizenry.
Drudge played the car bomb angle. The real story is the SECDEF acting like Hitler around his generals, trusting nobody to be armed. Shows you what he thinks of his own soldiers. What a bastard. I mean, a real, scum-sucking asshole.
Maybe Barry X will get suspicious of his SS men and disarm them. It's long past obvious either of these two has any loyalty to the Republic, their loyalty is to Dictatorship.
Fuck 'em both!
Hours later, I'm still PO'd.
You can tell when a Regime is losing/lost its Legitimacy when the Potentate or one of his Sheiks is afraid to be around his own soldiers.
In july, 1944, at the Wolf's Lair, all General Officers and Field Marshalls were disarmed and frisked before entering the holy presence of the Fuhrer.
Col von Stauffenberg still almost succeeded in taking out 'Dolph with a briefcase bomb.
Maybe we won't see any more briefcases taken into the Black House.
If you set out to destroy a nation and its people, don't be suprised if you encounter blowback.
I wish November was here.
watching the news....car stolen raced down runway towards panetta and blew up/caught on fire
better luck next time
or
if at first you dont succeed....
Would be nice to see some empty suits get fragged for once, instead of people like Pat Tillman.
Leon Panetta as SecDef
that's a joke in itself...
the ultimate yes man.
This guy worked in the Nixon Admin as well...was a Repuglican then a Democunt.
jesus christ on a cracker!
fringe thinkers at the time were claiming Tillman was fragged by his buddies.
interesting how the massacre has gotten zero coverage, and most of it has been to make excuses for the killer (Panetta said he COULD face the death penalty - hard to think what he would have to do to remove the provisionary form ) this is how these things go in the MSM, the public had already seen the revolt over the burning of Quran, the pissing on dead terrorists, the SS storm trooper logos. Obama apologized, there were more than a few reprisal killings, and now that story is finished..
but the troops are out of control. and to follow this story deeply note that the USMC has been nearly written out of combat operations. this happened after a less than successful showing in Iraq. so it was offered that the Army was simply using more effective tactics. (now after seeing the Blackhawk video released by wikileaks i can understand what they mean). early on in Afghanistan the Marines had their own massacre, a highway, mad max style shootup, random victims on the highway. they pulled that unit back off the line. the Corps has always been above this kind of stuff, but the pressure to meet the demands of this modern warfare has reduced their brand.
you have to consider the president responsible although its hard to imagine any of the GOP going after POTUS on the issue. but it sounds like these guys have gone off the reservation, Kurtz style, and the problem has been proven to be endemic. we can make excuses, but who put these guys in harms way in the first place?. POTUS should answer that, and do something about it. i think he should be impeached, and if Afghanistan collapses a whole lot will change regardless of Bernanke the Fed or Goldman
And aren't we all eagerly looking for the return of these damaged soldiers? Shudder.
They ought to parachute every one of these past stressed out guys on top of the little red gayboy in the White House.
This fringe thinker thinks Tillman was fragged on orders from the top...btw I am not alone in that fringe thought.
"You know this war is so fucking illegal" - Pat Tillman...according to Spc. Russell Baer
panetta must feel like a first louie on the front lines in Nam.
haha^nth power. nothing will break up the good old boys club, even if a few of the boys get pushed out. what we can know, is how much goldman will give each of his two favorite children. he gave obama twice as much as mccain, but romney might get an equal share. while a mitt-romance would be sweeter, they might prefer to stay with the girl they brought to the dance. but you're right a repeat of 2008 will put them all on the hotseat, which is why it won't happen.
they threw Ken Lewis under the bus, Bernanke and Paulson overrode the shareholders rights to see what was on Merrill's books. they are criminals, but there's so many of them, what are we to do? they saved us from what? the result of their criminal neglect and cronyism? and Romney is hardly the self righteous crusader, and Paul would never run on that ticket. goldman knows how to go long and short at the same time, and make money doing it
look forward to years of economic lethargy, because crony capitalism is what the name implies, exclusive of free market fundamentals, and outside or private equity, at least until the point that someone takes them on, much as Soros took on BOE. but one country collapsing by itself means nothing, the web of global banking is stronger if anything, a single currency appears. what could go wrong? (wihout diverting economic policies how can there be one country which has it right when the dam breaks, or what if there were no savers to buy up assets, like Carlos Slim in Arg, when SHTF?)
the raid on equity continues.
How do you eat so many rich?
Just like an elephant: One bite at a time.
Sorry, not buying it. There is no evidence to believe that the Fed and its owner banks do not completely control Congress and that any "show" is simply that. The Fed blaming Congress is hypocrisy (and an attempt to throw the blame back on the people themselves, since some people are still under the delusion that they elect congress). All evidence provided by lobbying, contribution and voting records indicates that the Fed and banks control Congress... think of the Fed blaming Congress just like the demobrats blaming in the repuklicans and visa versa.
Sure, the Fed might be worried about losing control. In fact, that must be the biggest concern of the financial elitists. If the people are driven to the point where their debt slavery or welfare subservience become intolerable or irreconcilable, then things can get very messy really quickly and the elitists will be backed in to a corner where they will feel compelled to do something very drastic to save themselves.
But that in no way implies that there is infighting now ... only that there is concern about losing control.
Until someone shows me a signed copy of an agreement to extend the statute of limitations for any criminal violations and allow the state to seek charges at some indefinite point in the future, I'm calling bullshit. Every day that goes by is another lead that grows cold for investigators and another day closer to the government's claims being time barred.
Until they's a swingin ala mussolini, they be partyin, bitchez.
I hope you're right...time for some of these corrupt bastards to take little of their own medicine...I vote for Blankfein, Dimon, Lewis and Mozillo to be the first casualties.
TO: etb
"I vote for Blankfein, Dimon, Lewis and Mozillo to be the first casualties."
that's the b-team.....the a-team is weil, rubin, summers, gramm, greenspan, paulson......and dimona.................
You forgot:
Hank "OSS" Greenberg...
You're A-Team....
lest we forget...
continued here: http://fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/070105_target_aig.shtml
** looks like that("will permit Greenberg to skate.") was pretty prophetic...
Greenberg...."Hank Greenberg"?? Didn't he hit 56 HRs one year? Whatta guy.
Graham, you have spewing the same drivel for the past 2 years and yet you haven't had a losing trade since July ?
Hmmmm, oops excuse me I just saw the Easter Bunny hop by.
Don't worry, he'll be bullish on the market and bearish on the economy soon enough. Then we can go against him again. Rinse repeat