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GLD Technicals: Bottom of Range
This is a comprehensive look at the SPDR Gold Trust (symbol: GLD) technicals.
Before getting to the technical picture, one word about the fundamentals for gold. They remain solid. Spiking yields on the 10 year Treasury are a headwind, but other measures, such as the cost of money being less than the rate of inflation, are gold positive. In some respects, the fundamental and technical picture are in sync in that we have been and will likely continue in a period of consolidation. The good news for those inclined to be bullish on gold is that prices are approaching the lower part of that trading range.
Figure 1 is a monthly chart of GLD. The pink labeled bars are negative divergence bars, and in this case, the negative divergence is between price, which was heading higher, and an oscillator type indicator used to measure price, which was heading lower. What we know about negative divergence bars is that signify slowing upside price momentum, and the highs and lows of the negative divergence serve as areas of resistance and support respectively. Once a negative divergence bar is printed, future prices will be contained within the highs and lows of that negative divergence bar until a breakout (or break down) occurs. This is what I have tried to show with the gray shaded areas as each area of consolidation following a negative divergence bar led to a thrust higher in prices.
Figure 1. GLD/ monthly
The most recent negative divergence bar has a low of 154.19; if prices close below this level on a monthly closing basis, I would be very cautious on GLD.
Figure 2 is a weekly chart of the GLD. The red dots are key pivot levels, and these are the best areas of support and resistance. 157.18 is the first area of support, and 153.12 is the second. A weekly close below 153.12 would not be welcomed as this is a break of support.
Figure 2. GLD/ weekly
Figure 3 is a daily chart of the GLD. Once again, the key pivot points show the best areas of support. 163.34 is resistance. A daily close above this level would be gold positive. For the conservative trader (i.e., those looking for confirmation of a price move), I would look for a close above this resistance level before going long GLD.
Figure 3. GLD/ daily
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GLD....IS NOT FUCKING gold.....
see,it's mising the "o" so important "o"............
With out the "O" is is only paper.....
MAY AS WELL BE TRADING WHEAT.
Gold is yellow and heavy
GLD is light and well,not GOLD.
Double tap on the 200 DMA. Don't fight the bull. He just told you what's what.
The second paragraph is compelte gobbledeygook. You can thrust it up your oscillator.
Let's make it simpler, shall we. First, what is occurring now is the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders is being formed, so when gold gets equal to the left shoulder, BUY! Take a look at the measurement of the inverted head and shoulders,... that's right, $2100 to $2200, right at the top of the channel line running parallel to the lower channel line that has been supporting all the extreme lows in gold.
Now, that wasn't so bad, was it?
Does no one on ZH take into account what a serious market shock ala Lehman would do to the price of gold, especially for those who own it on margin? I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here....
No you are not crazy, just loading up and hoisting yourself down in the calm evening before the Titanic sped up.
Ignorant post!
GLD is fucking paper!
Why is shit like this on ZH?
GLD is for the folks who want to bet on the price of gold....what's wrong with that?
priced in Apple, gold is on fire!
Priced "with" AAPL, maybe not
Good analysis, thanks. I find myself essentially in agreement and, though I'm a gold fan, for speculators a long gold position is probably not the place to be right now.
For your buy and hold "stacker" it shouldn't matter a bit, however.
Cheers!
Curtis
Maket Madness