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Economic Re-Recession Short Candidate Search , Or The Search For Bernanke Policy Victims

Reggie Middleton's picture




 

I warned that Bernanke et. al., in thier non-stop disinformation parade will ultimately cause significantly more damage to this country's economic status for the benefit of the .01% before things get better. This brief article is representative of my attempts to take a position to monetize such a viewpoint should it come true.

 bernanke on unemploymentbernanke on unemployment

A few months ago I went I Went To The NY Fed To Illustrate The Lies Perpetrated By The Fed Chairman Himself. These lies centered around his purported aid to the general economy and in particular the labor market by pledging to buy $1B USD of mortgage back securities per month.

Now, I’m not going to get into how enriching MBS traders and banks holding fraudulent loans get’s Joe Sixpack a job in this diatribe, but those who are interested can join the conversation via the following:

What I do aim to accomplish in this piece is to illustrate the problems of such potential malfeasance in not only the consumer discretionary sectors (see Reggie Middleton's REALity TV #2 - Bernanke's Bank Bailouts Blow Up Consumer Discretionary) but a side variety of other investment sectors. You see, pretending you create jobs while waiting for an economic recovery that is still many cycle units away is a far cry from actually having real jobs that pay real people real money to buy real, tangible, useful things that help the real economy. Don’t hate on me, I’m just keeping it real!

The BoomBustBlog research team has performed another fundamental/forensic scan to uncover near to medium term Bernanke victims. We identified several main sectors and their primary segments. From that we drilled down into:
• Sub-sectors/segments
• Negative factors and their potential impact: factors driving negative outlooks
• Illustrative companies in each subsector (not the shortlisted ones): These are example Companies, with actual shortlisted companies being released to subscribers later this week via detailed exercise
• News articles/key comments from the sell side and independent analysts - includes supporting articles and key comments

The actual document is available to all paying subscribers here File Icon Economic Recession Short Candidate (Global Macro, Trades & Strategy). As promised, specific shortlisted candidates will be upcoming this week and throughout next week, but be forewarned that we are tweaking and improving the list even as I type this. For those that don't subscribe, here's an excerpt...

re-recession short candidate researchre-recession short candidate research

The illustrative companies above are pretty much common sense. Ethan Allen, who can't sell much upper middle class furniture in a recession and a faux housing recovery. Fossil, with trinkets and wares whose demand is generated almost solely by trendy name branding. Fedex, UPS and Ryder - all companies which are literally barometers of global economic commerce and health since they represent commercial purchasing and shipping. Below are some less obvious candidates, though...

transport short candidatestransport short candidates

 

Again, these are simply illustrative companies. Over the next week or so I will review those companies from this exhaustive list who have made it to the initial short list of Bernanke victims that:

  1. have underlying options trading,
  2. are liquid enough to short and
  3. still have enough meat on the bones to feast,

Subscribers can download the initial list in full, now - File Icon Economic Recession Short Candidate. Casual readers may click here to subscribe

Much more to follow... Don't forget Ruminations on the Fed, the Dollar, ZIRP, QE and Math vs Magic - Hey, Even Harry Potter Has Problems...

 

 

 

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Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:29 | 3012816 Dusty
Dusty's picture

not-applicable..."Those evil, stupid bastards got exactly what they deserved"   Please tell me why someone trying to make an honest living (investing was the last time I looked)  investing one's hard earned savings (since 1% savings rate doesn't do it) accumulated from hard work throughout ones life......is evil ?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:55 | 3012521 Umh
Umh's picture

... pretending you create jobs while waiting for an economic recovery that is still many cycle units away is a far cry from actually having real jobs that pay real people real money to buy real, tangible, useful things that help the real economy.

That's what politicians do! That's all Obama has tried to do. I think it's because actually fixing things would piss off his supporters.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:07 | 3012547 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

Yes, but look at how long and how far they have been able to jolly us along.  I am one of the lucky ones.  I have a marketable skill that has not been successfully shipped overseas, though they tried mightily and failed.  I am working after a fashion for sweat shop wages that are less than half of what I used to make, as a contractor with no benefits or protections.   

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 18:32 | 3012633 Umh
Umh's picture

Ah, but I retired early which may or may not have been a smart move. At least I am enjoying my retirement now. The downside is that I have time to contemplate how things are going without the everyday distractions of work or is that the upside?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 19:04 | 3012746 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

So, have you decided what you want to be now that you have grown up? :>

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 20:53 | 3013025 Umh
Umh's picture

No.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 16:28 | 3012260 OneTinSoldier66
OneTinSoldier66's picture

Reggie,

 

The question I would ask is...

 

Once The Fed has purchased all the assets of the United States and Europe and has them on CB's balance sheets, will you and your bankers greed finally be satisfied then?

 

The World is Not Enough

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:29 | 3012100 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Apple is up 45% YTD, GOOG is up 2.37%.  

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:53 | 3012179 AldousHuxley
AldousHuxley's picture

only if you sell

 

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:54 | 3012518 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Was that the Baku steaming into the Eastern Med?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 17:28 | 3012450 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

No, that doesn't make a difference of its ytd performance.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:58 | 3012018 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

It's not just Bernanke et. al.  It's everyone Obama has appointed, or might appoint.

I'm an arb, Reggie.  I know how to profit from a debt driven implosion.  What I don't know is how to deal with counter-party risk, in an age of trillions in derivatives, when everything is tied to the solvency of others, and the largest and most powerful are always the most corrupt.  Any thoughts?

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 15:33 | 3012106 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

Sorry, but that kind of research doesn't pay, so its lessons go unheeded.

Other than self-delusion, I can't think of a single reason why anyone who reads ZH would put ANY of their own wealth at risk in an effort to profit from the crime in progress.

Honestly, it almost makes me pull for The Squid sometimes, as these people deserve to lose it all, just like some of those Madoff "investors" who knew full well that he was running a scam, but believed they were in on it. Those evil, stupid bastards got exactly what they deserved.

Besides, participation in the "market" only enlarges the fraud, as evidenced by everything that surrounds us today.

People running the DTCC meanwhile, are thankful for their efforts.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 14:15 | 3011802 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

FED bailing out the banks, intervening in the "markets" to cover their losses at the craps table with taxpayer money and debt that will never ever be paid back.

Buying Mortgage Backed Securities is going to help employment?

Where?  At Goldman Sachs and Bank of America?

Insanity.

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:44 | 3011730 smlbizman
smlbizman's picture

im on death row...they asked me ..."any last request?"...i said let me read just one more report from reggie....they agreed...now i can die of old age......

 

love your stuff reggie...

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:17 | 3011631 woggie
woggie's picture

the beast is on the gobble
and all that matters is we're all headed for it's belly
http://youtu.be/ntmthFyaYzY

Mon, 11/26/2012 - 13:17 | 3011628 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I like the enthusiasm, Reggie. Keep documenting these clowns, you'll probably end up with your own statue somewhere after all of this farce is over.

I'm just wondering when it finally tips over.

 

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