FX Churns, Waiting for Fresh Incentives

Marc To Market's picture

A consolidative tone
threatening to emerging in the foreign exchange market, as prices churn
awaiting not only today's press conference following the ECB meeting, but also
tomorrow's US employment data and prospects for an expansion of QE3+ at next
week's FOMC meeting. 


Five major central banks
were to meet this week, with only the Reserve Bank of Australia poised to act. 
 They did cut rates, but the accompanying
statement did not tip the hand of the next move.  The market took
advantage of the jobs data's favorable optics to reduce the likelihood of a
follow up cut in February to about 50/50.  


The details of the
employment report were really weaker than it appeared.  The 13.9k increase
in jobs is misleading as it was driven exclusively by part-time jobs.
 Full time work actually fell 4.2k, the first decline in four months.
 The unexpected decline in the unemployment rate to 5.2% from 5.4% in Sept
and Oct was a function of a decline in the participation rate.  The
Australian dollar has traded now (barely) on both sides of yesterday's range.
 Offers in the $1.05 area continue to slow the Aussie's ascent.


The central bank of
Canada met on Tuesday and left rates steady, though the Bank was reluctant to
completely give up is slightly hawkish rhetoric.  The same can be said
about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand:  rates on hold, with somewhat
hawkish comments.  Today's BOE meeting is largely a none-event.  Nor
is the ECB expected to do anything.  Draghi's press conference and staff
forecasts will be the focus.  


The US dollar has
rebounded smartly off yesterday's low against the yen near JPY81.80 to briefly
trade above JPY82.60 today, hitting a downtrend line drawn off the ~JPY82.84
high for the move recorded on November 22 and the secondary high near JPY82.75
on November 30.
ostensible driver was local press reports that suggest the LDP may secure an
outright majority at the December 16th election. Abe continues to press for a
change in the BOJ law, which an aide said could take place by July.  We
have noted that Abe will b able to achieve similar results by being able to appoint
a new governor and deputies early next year.  Support now for the dollar
is seen near JPY82.30,  Separately we note that the weekly MOF portfolio
flows show continued foreign interest in Japanese shares, but the prospects of
further yen weakness may have encouraged Japanese investors to keep more money
at home, selling foreign bonds and stocks.  Japan recorded a net inflow of
portfolio capital to the tune of JPY2.12 trillion compared with an outflow of
JPY1.37 trillion in the previous week.  


Turning to Europe,
sterling has remained relatively firm in the aftermath of the Osborne's Autumn
 The post-mortem
suggests that a bullet was dodged by a couple of accounting tricks, including
counting as revenue proceeds from the 4G auction that has not been held and the
transfer of funds from the BOE's QE.  Although the Chancellor stuck to his
austerity message, the risk of a downgrade (with Fitch seen as the most likely
candidate) has not diminished.   


The poor growth
prospects were highlighted today by the Oct trade report that showed an
increasing drag by the external sector.  The GBP9.5 bln trade deficit was
more than 10% larger than the GBP8.4  bln shortfall recorded in September.
 A little more than half of the deterioration was accounted for by non-EU
trade partners.  Separately, and perhaps another source of pressure on the
UK gilts was news of a much larger than expected rise in the Halifax house
price index.  The 1.0% rise in November contrasts with the Bloomberg
consensus of a 0.1% rise.  Moreover, the Oct series was revised to show a
0.1% decline rather than a 0.7% decline as initially reported.  


The Swiss franc has been
in play following the decision by a large local bank to charge for substantial
franc deposits. 
 It is not the
first bank to do so, yet it prompted a more dramatic reaction than when a
couple of foreign banks made similar announcements.  We remain skeptical
that it signals central bank action along the similar vein.  Nevertheless,
poor data from Switzerland today has played on such fears and has seen the
franc give up a good part of yesterday's recovery gains.  Unemployment in
ticked up to 3.1% from 2.9% in October, but the real blow came from the CPI
figures.  The November CPI fell 0.3% on the month and 0.4% from a year
ago.  The market had anticipated flat readings.  


Meanwhile, news from the
euro zone itself has been somewhat favorable.
  We note that tomorrow is the deadline for
participation in the Greek bond buy back.  The bond buy back triggered
S&P's selective default rating, which seemed to have weighed on the euro
initially.  Talk suggests that local banks (which have rallied strongly
today ~4%, which is twice the gain of the overall market) and some hedge funds
will participate and will increase the likelihood of success.  Separately,
France saw good demand and lower rates at the first bond auction since its
downgrade.  Germany reported significantly better than expected October
factory orders.  The 3.9% increase compares to the consensus expectation
for a 1% gain.  The Sept data was revised to show a 2.4% decline rather
than 3.3%.  Lastly, despite the  walk-out by Berlusconi's
center-right PDL, Italy's Monti survived a vote of confidence in the Senate
over new growth measures.  


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tetsujin's picture

Marc, if I may I wouild like to present you with a question.

How do you view the current situation with USDCHF and EURUSD, given the peg on EURCHF? Have been meaning to ask someone with real knowledge or dramatic analytic powers on this for sometime.

Element's picture

I saw some guy today in Aust talking about how we needed to concentrate on high-tech opportunities for export.

Not with the AUD likely to get and stay stronger.

Best bet is to charge the shit out of the hot money.

Orly's picture

The Australian dollar seems to have taken the place of the Euro in the overnight ramp-fest shenanigans.  Are they saying the Euro has maxed out here as they move money into AUDUSD?


Orly's picture

Yepperz.  The Aussie is the new Euro, alright.