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Silver Rally Due - Seasonally Strong Mid December To End of April

GoldCore's picture





 

Gold and silver are up 9.3% and 19% respectively so far this year – thereby outperforming many asset classes again in 2012.

In time, 2012 may be seen as a year of correction and consolidation for the precious metals after the sharp gains and record nominal highs seen in 2011.

 

As Dimitri Speck’s excellent ‘Silver Seasonal 30 Year Chart’ shows silver over the long term has a clear seasonally strong period from mid December through to the end of April.

Silver Seasonality Chart 

Indeed, Bloomberg’s ‘Seasonality Chart’ for silver shows that in the shorter term there are also seasonal factors to consider. In the last 5 and 10 years, the best month to own silver has been February with gains of 9.5% over the 5 year period and 6.4% over the 10 year period.

The months with the next best performance are November, January and April (see 5 and 10 year average returns in chart). Over the long term March is a good month to own silver and this can be seen in the 3.2% 10 year average return.

This shows that the optimal time periods to own silver are from the end of June through to May.

June is a wicked month to own silver with hefty losses of 5.5% and 5.3% over the 5 year and 10 year period. August is a weak month and September mediocre. 

While silver has clear seasonality, one should not use it as a trading bible - it is merely a guide.

This is clearly seen in the fact that while February is silver’s best month, silver fell 5% in February 2003 which could have wiped out someone trading silver with leverage.

Silver’s seasonality is clear and can help us to decide on when to buy or add to allocations and indeed when to sell or reduce allocations. 


Silver in USD (5 Year) - 100, 200 and 250 Daily Moving Average 

The positive seasonals and silver being close to its long term daily moving averages after the massive period of consolidation of the last 21 months means that the short term cyclical and technical prospects for silver look very positive.

WEBINAR: OUTLOOK FOR SILVER IN 2013 AND HOW TO OWN SILVER SAFELY
Join David Morgan, publisher of the Morgan Report and a recognised expert and global authority on silver and Mark O’Byrne, Head of Research and Founder at GoldCore.

In this 60-minute webinar, discover: 

Outlook for Silver in 2013 and Coming Years

Silver Seasonality - When To Buy 

Safest Way To Own Silver 

Join us for a webinar on 12/12/12 at 1900 GMT.

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Wed, 12/12/2012 - 07:49 | Link to Comment CaptainAmerica
CaptainAmerica's picture

I bought all my morgans for $12 in 2007 to 2009.  Just sold them for $32.  Will wait another 7 years before I buy again.  Now I invest in soup and spam.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:46 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

Glad you did well, sorry you didn't get out at the $50 pp, sorry to tell you that in 7 years Gates won't be able to afford to buy silver.

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 07:04 | Link to Comment new game
new game's picture

im wait patiently for the ratio to get to 40:1 for starters.  if jp would just go the fucking away...

1700/40=42.50

1700/20=85.00

jp shorting/manipulation with no oversight

just another corzined trade; muthafuckers....

someday the physical market will overwelm the paper markets-i think????

wish/think b.s. getting real old around here. free markets are gone-sad fucking story...

Wed, 12/12/2012 - 09:45 | Link to Comment DavosSherman
DavosSherman's picture

While the article had a point or two, most of this shit was fucking fluff.  Your read is good.

To it we could add:

 Mine supply. In 2010, the world mined approximately 736 million ounces of silver an additional 215 million ounces from recycled (Sprott's work).

Sprott brings to light that paper trades at 891 times the available physical – each day!

To that we could add the population part of this equation: We're China's (populations) rounding error.  They don't have enough fucking water.  But what does that mean for silver?  Well they import water by importing food, power production is water intensive, nat gas and shale fracking uses 8 million gallons of water per well.  Other power uses a shitload of water too.

Solar doesn't!

Solar does use 1 ounce per PV panel.

Silver will blow gold out of the water, it'll be the most expensive metal.  The only thing that'll effect this aspect is 1.) breakthrough in PV technology, 2.) population adjustment 3.) some new energy invention.

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