21 Dec 2012 – “ Blue Christmas ” (The Dread Zeppelin, 2002)
Trailing the US, as not much else to do. EGBs firming up, but mostly because they‘re supposed to do so, as Equities end a little softer, because they have to, as well. Credit likewise. So no Risk highs under the Xmas three… All because of the US. Blue.
"Blue Christmas" (Bunds 1,38% -4; Spain 5,23% +1; Stoxx 2644 -0,6%; EUR 1,318 -40)
In reversal of Wednesday’s close, Thursday ended on a positive note in the US, up about half a percent, as Fiscal Cliff issues seemed on the way of getting solved. Unfortunately, these hopes were then crushed after the markets closed, leading to a 1.5% drop in futures. 2012 in a day: Waiting for decisions that don’t come, although everyone guesstimates that it’ll go the right way. To make the 2012 replay really complete, we even had another mini flash crash, sending S&P futures down 3.5%, before rebounding. Ah, 2012…
Asia closed the week by and large in the red, following the US futures’ lead, anywhere between 0.25% and 1% lower.
Cyprus rating cut to CCC+ with negative outlook from B by S&P
Isn't it funny that the world is supposed to end on a quadruple-witching day for US markets? Then again, it is unclear at what time? EOD? Tulum time (East Coast), Kaminaljuyu (near the West Coast)?
Latest batch of macro data mixed, as well, to start the day: German Consumer Confidence about in line and trailing sideways (5.6 versus 5.9 forecast after rev. 5.8); Finnish unemployment jumping to 7.3% from 69%; French Biz Confidence rising to 89 from 88, as expected, Production Outlook better at -38 (fcst -42 after -40, rev. -42), but Own Production ticking down to -9 from -7; Spanish PPI lower than expected at 2.8% YoY (fcst 3.1% after rev 3.4%). INSEE growth outlook for France at odds with the government view, seeing 0.1% for 2013.
Start of day in light Risk Off mood, given the overnight developments, with equities opening about 0.50% lower, roughly in line with the US futures.
EGBs, of course, on the slightly firmer side, but not excessively so. Bunds -2bp back to 1.40%, others in line. Periphery some 1-2 softer. Classic. Credit mixed with Main a tick softer, Financials a tick firmer and Crossover 2% wider.
EUR down to below 1.32 from 1.325 Thursday night, but eventually settling in around 1.322, unchanged from yesterday’s close. Oil a bit softer and Gold half a percent firmer, right at 1650.
No roaring desperation, thus.
No government supply.
Finnish 2013 funding needs will be EUR 18.5bn, of which 70% in bonds. So again, not really the sovereign to flood the markets unduly.
New Issues market shut.
Cyprus bail-out / write-off questions doing rounds. Just to put things back into context: Cyprus’ GDP is shy of EUR 18bn (versus Greece’s EUR 208bn). Of course sustainability of its debt is in question, but the sums involved are a far cry from the ones that have been (and will be) spent on Greece or the other GIIPS peers. This one ought to be manageable by the EZ, if the proverbially fan gets hit…
Spain, by the way, is already massaging opinion that it WILL miss its 4.5% deficit targets for 2012 (…), knowing that YTD November figures are already at -4.37%.
Equities ticking a little lower by the end of the morning (-0.6%) with Core EGBs firming up, or vice versa. Periphery bonds softening, too, with Italy ticking wider. Soft Core flat.
Bunds 1,40% (-2), OBLs 0,36% (-2), BKOs -0,008% (-1). UST 1,76% (-3).
Spanish 2s 2,73% (-2), 10s 5,24% (+2). 2-10 YRS spread 251bp (+4).
Italian 2s 1,82% (+5), 10s 4,47% (+5). 2-10 YRS spread 265bp (unch).
EUR back right on the 32-handle.
Quite a positive data flow to kick off the afternoon with Chicago FED at +0.1 after -0.56, Personal Income & Spending +0.6% (twice the forecast), respectively +0.4% (fcst +0.3% after rev. 0.1% and +0.4% after rev. -0.1%) and Durable Goods up 0.7% (fcst +0.3% after rev. +1.1%) with the EX component jumping 1.6% (fcst -0.2% after rev. +1.9%).
Looks good, but not as good as Fiscal Cliff deal, hence next to no reaction at all.
US equities gapping down 0.75%-1%, knowing that the closing minutes yesterday pushed up stocks forcefully 0.25% higher. Let’s say limited damage with indices about 0.5% lower from European COB Thursday.
Michigan (Non) Confidence printed at 72.9 (fcst 75 after 74.5), quite a miss.
Bit of ROff end of day. No new European highs to put under the three… A bit blue. -0.4% is limited damage, though, and Credit about 2% wider is not surprising, given the tightest levels seen yesterday.
Note the surge just below 20 at open in the VIX (from a 7-day low at 15.5 on Tuesday).
EGBs (sluggishly) moving tighter, given the environment, but I’m not sure that this is really a convinced move. Classic ROff formation with Bunds -4, Hard Core -3, Soft Core -1, Belgium +1, as for Spain, and Italy the laggard at +5 in expectation of Monti’s official resignation tonight (and where’s the news in that?).
On the week, Bunds a bit softer at +3, the rest more or less unchanged, Belgium very tight at -6 and the Periphery brothers at -16 & -17. Spain again through 400 to Bunds, but still struggling to break 5.15%-5.25%.
Bunds closed at 1,38% (-4), OBLs at 0,35% (-4) and BKOs -0,010% (-1,3). UST at 1,75% (-4) COB.
Spanish 2s at 2,73% (-2), 10s at 5,23% (+1). 2-10 YRS spread 250bp (+3).
Italian 2s at 1,84% (+7), 10s at 4,47% (+5). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (-2).
Greeks shedding some of the latest gains with 2023s at 49.50 (-50 to 11.60% +13bp) and 2042s likewise minus 50 ticks to 37.00 (10.21% +12bp 10.09%). Still, one must bow to a nice weekly move, as they closed last Friday at 45.0 (12.83%) and 34.0 (10.90%), and the previous week at 40.75 (14.15%) and at 31.0 (11.71%). And Xmas is only in January in Greece.
Portuguese 10s unchanged at 6.89%.
EUR softer during the afternoon on ROff (and US figures fundamentally looking better). Metals dump by Mayan hedge funds over with Silver recovering, Gold up over 1% and Copper following. Oil 1% softer. Mixed picture.
Still watching the Baltic Dry getting wacked on a daily basis and getting itchy seeing my coalmine canary getting so pale. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat.
Take-away: Trailing the US, as not much else to do. EGBs firming up, but mostly because they‘re supposed to do so, as Equities end a little softer, because they have to, as well. Credit likewise. So no Risk highs under the Xmas three… All because of the US. Blue.
I wish all readers a festive holiday season and all the Best for 2013 (Mayans permitting).
European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2543/2513, DAX 7342/7247, CAC 3505/3480, MIB 15647/15494, IBEX 7860/7738.
US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13097/13193/13011, S&P 1414/1419/1389, NASDAQ 2987/3033/2991 with AAPL at 575/616/601.
EUR: 50d 1.295, 100d 1.283 & 200d 1.279. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 to Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273 & 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,38% (-4); Luxembourg 1,42% (-3); Netherlands 1,56% (-3); Finland 1,58% (-5); EU 1,60% (-3); Swaps 1,62% (-2), Austria 1,75% (-1); EIB 1,76% (-3); EFSF 1,85% (-2); France 1,98% (-1); Belgium 2,05% (+1); Italy 4,47% (+5); Spain 5,23% (+1).
10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 4bp (+1); Netherlands 18bp (+1); Finland 20bp (-1); EU 22bp (+1); Swaps 24bp (+2); Austria 37bp (+3); EIB 38bp (+1); EFSF 47bp (+2); France 60bp (+3); Belgium 67bp (+5); Italy 309bp (+9); Spain 385bp (+5).
EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 42bp (-3,0); 5-10 YRS 81bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 66bp (unch).
2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,010% (-1,3) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,35% (-4).
Main +2 to 111 (1,8% wider); Financials +3 to 138 (2,2% wider); Cross +12 to 457 (2,7% wider).
Stoxx Futures at 2644 / -0,4% (from 2655) with S&P minis at 1421 (-0,9% from 1434, at European close).
VIX index at 18,9 after 17,2 yesterday same time.
Oil 88,4/108,8 (WTI/Brent) from 89,6/110,0 (-1,3%/-1,0%). Gold at 1657 after 1639 (+1,1%). Copper at 356 from 353 (+0,8%). CRB at EU COB 294,0 from 296,0 (-0,7%).
Closing a fourth week of continuous consolidation in the Baltic Dry, down to 700 from 708 (-1.1% on the day and -10.7% on the week). I reckon 661 and 647 next stops:
The latest dip from the post-Summer high of 1109 in Oct had been halted at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to 661 mid-September. 21st century low was 647 in Feb 2012. Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)… Seems a little far, no?
EUR 1,318 from 1,322
Greeks shedding some of the latest gains with 2023s at 49.5 (-50 to 11.60% +13bp) and 2042s likewise minus 50 ticks to 37 (10.21% +12bp 10.09%). Still, one must bow to a nice weekly move, as they closed last Friday at 45.0 (12.83%) and 34.0 (10.90%), and the previous week at 40.75 (14.15%) and at 31.0 (11.71%). And Xmas is only in January in Greece.
All levels COB 17:30 CET
Fast-forward Macro and Events:
Dragging into Year End. For obvious reasons, an ultra-light slate next week…
EZ: No data next week.
GE: No data next week.
FR: Thu 27 Dec Cons Confidence, PPI, Claims, Q3 GDP revision
Italy: Thu 27 Dec Biz Confidence, Fri 28 PPI
Spain: Thu 27 Dec Mortgages; Fri 28 Retail Sales
US: Wed 26 Dec Case Shiller; Thu 27 Claims, Cons Conf, New Homes Sales; Fri 28 Pending Home Sales
Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
Definitively the right time to dig and unearth some more Xmas rock songs…
And I know you’ll like THAT …
A View From My Screens in its daily format will be put on hiatus, at least for a while.
I hope my posts brought some insights and information and were somehow useful to you, next to the discovery of musical titles you might never have heard of before or had forgotten existed.
I thank all the readers, who bore with my musical choices, be it directly on my own site and later through the mirrors on Zerohedge, the FTAlphaville Long Room as well as the Minyanville blog section and thank these sites for offering me such a broad platform.
It has been gratifying, journalistically satisfying as well as simply flattering being read so regularly, but I’m looking for more time to deepen next steps, which is not compatible with being stuck behind my screens.
Should you miss my posts, I’d be certainly saddened, but glad to hear about it. Let me know.
Any suggestion about how to make aviewfrommyscreens.com part of a broader project or how to leverage its content or my experience would be warmly welcome. Any other advice would be certainly welcome, too.
Healthy, Happy & Successful 2013!!!