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The Fading Bull
So, let’s go back revisiting that great bull of 2012. Investors are once again massively bullish, and the latest to add to the uber bullish argument is Mr Biggs. As we mentioned yesterday, this is probably a big warning signal for the market. Many talk passionately about the bull, but prices have actually not been that bullish at all. Looking over the past 30 days of action, many indices are flat or even minus in Europe (that’s where the problems still are). The uber bull we saw in January and February is clearly fading, at least when looking at some of the European indices. Is it worth the risk putting the money to work for the past 30 days with many indices at flat or minus, you decide.
MIB down over the past 30 days.
IBEX is down.
OMX, one of our favorite "risk" indices is down.
Dax is slightly up.
Charts Infront
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Down a couple hundred in a couple days and start to see the QE bantered about again, know that you are in an artificial market in an election year with every intent to make taxpayers feel better than they actually are financially...
This "bull" never should have seen the light of day. Everything after TARP of 2008 and the subsequent QEs is a farce. When all of this crap corrects, it is going to be a shit storm. All the banksters, politicians, and MSM (CNBC) can go fuck themselves (as they have been doing all along anyway)
This commentary is exactly like the perma-bear remarks all through the august 1982- march 1983 explosion in share prices where every faxed comment was alluding to the conditions which caused last year's crash being "the same or worse". Stock prices are gong to scream higher until mid-late next year when inflation has the citizenry coming over the Walls with pitchforlks and torches AT WHICH POINT, monetary policy will shift to "tighten" mode and then things get nasty. Funny how when everyone is flat or short, they are painting the bear case - if they were long, the charts would magically have a different connotation.
I don't believe it's gonna last 'til mid-13. I give it 'til Aug/Sept and then the bottom drops out. Of course, I could be wrong (could happen in April/May...)
from a perma-bear place i'll take this a buy signal! seriously...we will be looking for buying opportunities in the pull back. obviously the sell off in the commodity space is telling: China is SLOWWWWING DOWN. Great call from "that hedge fund guy out West." You know his name...he's rich and famous. Anywho...unlike what the President tells all of you 90% of the American economy is domestic--a slowdown in any global market need not mean anything in particular to the US market...in fact it's mainly a distraction (the exception being Greece of all things. Go figure that one out...) The number one issue as is only presented here...though greater detail would be good...is of course housing...and that is the only "perma-bull" i've ever seen throughout this extraordinary recovery in the equity space. In particular i watch for stories related to the HAMP (housing assistance mortage program) which from what few stories there are now is a total catastrophe. that program is clearly an impediment to recovery...at some point a "house clearing excercise" will take hold. This spring it has been noted a massive number of homes are suddenly spilling onto the market. Taxes are soaring in the City near where i live (up double digits.) These are your "fancy pants" houses spilling onto the market now. Those are your "anchor tenants" that create a housing market to being with. Everything else is just a (failing?) government program. Of course "great news for equities" (sorry for being crass here...i'm no better off than all the rest either) as the retail investor has not only not at all been in this recovery but is not going to be involved in the dip buying either since his house STILL is only going down in value...as with the whole neighborhood apparently. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=XOw-ak2aJS8
Clown
the USA has been exceptional, unfortunately over 50% of that has having the world's reserve currency. People in the USA do work hard. They actually show up to work, do a job and are reliable in large part. In much of the world a job is just another social event. In spite of our ethic however much of what we have has come to us because we do not have to give up wealth to get stuff. We give the world paper to save and they give us oil and all that oil can produce. When that arangement ends we will see a big difference. Prices in what ever currency we then have will buy less per hour worked compared to now. This will be much discussed and will be a big mystery to all but those who understand why we have what we have now.
Costs more each time you use it.
Those other markets are down because they just aren't as awesome as the good ole' US of A. We are so exceptional, you know?
Actually, we are. Didn't we pull the world out of two world wars in the last 90 years that kept things going? What if we hadn't? Sprechten zie?
The Big Media bull market story has changed....China slowing down is now a good thing for US equities. China slowing means lower commodity prices, meaning lower input costs for US maufacturers.
Plus....the hot money will flow from China and Brazil into US equities...
They know all the right answers.
Until garbage stocks like Sears and BAC are cut in half, this market will still live in fantasy land. Look at effin Green Mountain today, Starbucks says they are going to still produce K-cups and the stock goes up 20%. Green Mountain's machines are dead in the market once the competition hits. A $10 Mr. Coffee is better quality than a $200 Green Mountain unit.
It's all bullshit.
You're right about the build quality of Keurig machines.
I'm on my fourth platinum brewer (original purchase+3 warranty replacements).
They seem to die like clockwork within the warranty period!
There's no float in these speculative names. Coming out publicly to say you're short only means you're incompetent...or worse. Sure it would be nice to be availed an IPO or two...we tried but failed in Dunkin Donuts...so it's back to buying on the dip again (and doing great btw. Thanx Mitt Romney and Friends!) Anywho "the market comes back to you" as well. I simply don't believe in the concept that through dividends a company is giving you a reason to hold their equity. In fact when a company raises its dividend I would argue it's time to sell. Or at least start asking serious questions. (I ask them to myself lately since all the successful bulls save one that I know are dead.)
THIEVES’R’US is cutting top staff. Expect sharp rise in Mafia and Government Organized Crime. Maybe old fashioned criminality is good news?
sorry people but BTFD remains the play. Those charts you see above?...they gonna be turning north again very soon> Technicals mean zilch in a controlled market.
If only technicals mattered. < sigh >
In the short term we have a SPY bullflag on it's 6th day. That means a move higher has to come soon. Like within the next day or two. Otherwise it's rolling over. I hate calling tops, esp since I called the top over 3,000 points ago lmao. However what I said is true. If there gona pump it higher it has to happen soon. As in days.
Oh and look........friday is almost here.
So the Viagra known as "Ctrl P" is losing its glitter. Must be time to threaten the markets with more QE or else!