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Mayans Forecast Boehner Fail?
Is it possible that the Mayans, in their infinite wisdom, somehow anticipated that Boehner would fail to bring any legislation that might patch the cliff? The Boehner “fail” happened last evening, it was already 12/21 in Asia. So far, the Mayans’ timing for the Beginning-of-the-End is spot on. The cracks in the system have been spreading ever since the fateful no-vote in Congress last night. At this point, we are faced with the very real prospect that those cracks will get longer and wider in the next few days. If this happens, people will start falling into the widening rifts.
I have watched, read and listened to almost all of the endless discussion on the topic of the cliff. I’m convinced that there is not a single commentator that has properly evaluated the economic consequences of failure to address the deadline that is now just days away.
All the analysis I’ve looked at considers the consequences to the 2013 economy of changing tax rates and reduced spending that will occur if no deal is reached. But this does not include the consequences of the retroactive tax increase for 2012 that will take place.
I wrote about this on November 14 (Link). To repeat, if we go off the cliff, as many as 60 million taxpayers will be forced to file a separate Alternative Minimum Tax form (unbelievably complicated). Of the 60 million, as many as 33 million will be faced with a higher 2012 tax bill. This will result in some folks digging into their pockets to pay Uncle Sam the extra $3,000 to $4,000 this will cost (a disaster for some). Others, will get a smaller refund that they think they are due (bye-bye to that trip to Disneyland). The numbers are big. The "surprise" 2012 tax that the cliff will bring comes to a very lumpy $100-120 Billion.
The drag from the 2012 AMT look-back will be felt in the first quarter. It will “feel” as if this is a 2.5% reduction in 1stQ GDP just from the AMT. By itself, the retroactive AMT tax will produce negative economic growth. ADD to this, the fiscal consequences that kick in on 1/1/13. If spending is adjusted by this much, it will translate into fall in economic activity in excess of 4% in the 1stQ. If the year gets off to such a dismal start, the US will face a technical recession in the first half of the year, the full year will be lucky to breakeven.
A very steep drop in activity in the USA for the next three-months is not in the market’s mind today. It’s as if investors have forgotten that Europe and Japan are already in recession and China is still a question mark. Now we face the prospect of a very hard landing for the US.
Maybe the Mayans had it right all along…..
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The truth - no one cares.Obama administration has enacted a new and better 1984
Or, watch how there is a controlled crash in the market - it might even be a flash crash - and Boner will wilt to Oblamo's demands. A last minute deal will be reached and there will be a collective orgasm in DC, and market will get a Boner.
Computer programmer for payroll/hr here. I hate year ends: congress always passes something LAST minute that has to happen in our payroll systems. Be it related to health care reporting, taxes, whatever. It's always last minute and so many times states change something effective 'back whenever'.
My dad always asked why payroll systems are complicated and why there are issues of any type. If he were alive today, I could point out that here is another example of government in action causing pain for citizens....er, well, pain for computer programmers who have to get last minute changes into their system, configured, tested, and moved to production.
Happy Holidays to all you faithful zh'ers. Bahumbug to all politicians.
BTW, you outed yourself as a fraud by stating that configuration and testing occurs before the move to production. ;)
SOP: finish changes, scan them for completeness, move to production, push button, see what breaks, fix it.
Everybody knows test environments are no true test of anything. Gremlins are waaaay too smart for that shit.
I don't often test, but when I do it's in production.
Stay thirsty my friends.
Uhhhhh, no. It's too expensive to fuck this up.
I consult for a fairly large payroll tax firm, thousands of customers. Very fucking big problem. Every release (about every 60-90 days) is regressed. Usually, very few problems.
You do understand that there are THOUSANDS of taxing authorities nationwide, and in some cases it depends on which side of the damn street the subject lives on to where certain taxes go. Also have to deal with changes in ervery fucking one of these. Thousands.
Thing is, there isn't a way to regress these huge changes, even if they occur. All we can do is fork the entire codebase (several forks from the original), and the underlying database (again, several more), and run "scenarios." Bad way to test.
As far as we can tell, there haven't ever been this many potential changes to the tax code, expecially the retroactive look-backs that may, or may not happen.
This is very complicated and is plainly giving us fits. We either get it fight THE FIRST TIME, or have thousands of pissed off customers who either can't run payroll, or worse, have to fix the errors on the next pay period, which is another huge ordeal.
It's a genuine fucking mess. I'm not sure if I've seen anything with more potential problems in my life, and I've been at this for almost 40 years.
This crap is intentional. After xmas and all of the MSM smirks about how Boner is a failure, Boner will pass the bill then jam it up Obamao's ass. Poor statesmanship, outstanding partisan politics. Disgusting to the core.
Wrong. Boner won't be jammin' anything up Obummers ass. Just the oposite. It's Boner with the shafted ass. Even if he gets anything passed in the House, it will die in the Senate unless it's what Obummer wants. Boner has no leverage and very few chips. Uniting his coalition is like trying to herd cats. Traditional, main-stream republicans are watching in horror as their party is being turned over to ignorant buffoons, and soon to be left in the dust bin of history if they can't figure out how to harness these bozos and keep them from wasting time on reproductive rights, gay marriage, "investigating" every thing they can while tripping over each other to get in front of cameras.
The Tea Party has been the tail wagging the dog for the past 2 years, but that gig is just about up. The public is waking up to the fact that they were long ago captured by the neo-cons and right-wing, big money con artists.
http://www.onecitizenspeaking.com/2012/12/the-tea-party-big-money-big-co...
If the 'Mayans had it right' about this timeframe, it more likely will have something to do with this:
http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2012/12/whats-really-going-on-in-sy...
How can the Mayans predict timeframes if they couldn't predict Mayanaise? I'm putting my suitcase away and never packing in anticipation of the end of the world again. Fuckin' Mayans.
Beginning of a new age, y'all.
help the bees:
pass it on.