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Cold Wind
Cold wind blowing today in the North East, fitting for the first day of winter. The whole country is having a bit of a cold spell. Even the poor folks in Palm Beach might see a frost (raises hell with the begonias).
I was feeling a bit sorry for the folks in the sun belt before I saw that it was down to –55F in Siberia. That’s cold, a fifty year low.
The topic of weather gets me to a story I’ve been following - the continuing drought in the mid-west. The odds say that two years of severe drought is unlikely, but that is what’s happening. The 30/90-day rainfall is a fraction of normal:
The lack of rain has many negative side effects. One is the water level on the Mississippi. The water is so low that ships, sunk and lost twenty-five years ago, are now visible.
A number of emergency steps are being taken to keeps the river navigable. Thirty miles south of St. Louis there is a rock formation that was once deep below water. Now it’s a risk to barge traffic, so they’re blasting it apart.
A more controversial step was taken to drain water from Lake Carlyle. The hope is that the extra water will raise the northern Mississippi by six inches. Not a big deal considering it's already down by 20 feet. The water drained from Lake Carlyle will keep the upper Mississippi navigable for, at best, another twenty days.
The river is already impaired; it’s getting worse by the day. There will be economic consequences to this. There are not enough trains and trucks to pick up the volume of goods that go by barge. Everything that goes up and down the river is going to get a fair bit more expensive in the very near future. A hell of lot of “stuff” gets floated up and down the Mississippi, so this is one to watch out for.
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There is no connection between this weekend’s weather and climate change (It’ll be back in the 80s down in Boca next week), but I’ll jump to that topic anyway. For those of you who have strong feelings (either way) on matters of climate, there was an important development this week.
It appears that a significant motivation for Obama to nominate John Kerry as the next Secretary of State is that Kerry is going to lead a global effort to “Confront Climate Change”. The Hill has the story on this today (Link), some snippets from the article:
From Twitter:
“Confident John Kerry as state sec is good news for climate. Cross fingers his dedication will make climate a strategic priority. ” Hedegaard - E.U.’s commissioner for climate action.
“One of the most pressing challenges is to reverse potentially devastating climate change. Kerry understands the need to work closely with allies on the most pressing topics – including climate change.” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)
Quotes:
“I have absolute confidence that Secretary Kerry will be committed to action on climate change as he, is the most knowledgeable, passionate person to break the international logjams on this existential threat.” Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.)
“Sen. Kerry will bring vital expertise and knowledge on the issue of climate change as we endeavor to work toward a meaningful, balanced international agreement in 2015,” - Eileen Claussen, the president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.
“As Secretary, Senator Kerry will face numerous issues that are crucial to both the security of our nation and the future of our planet, including critical decisions on the Keystone XL pipeline.” - Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune.
“Senator Kerry could certainly teach the President a thing or two about how to make a clear and compelling case for climate action. That starts with saying no to the Keystone XL pipeline and then continuing to use the powers of the presidency to regulate emissions and promote clean energy.” - Jamie Henn, co-founder of the climate advocacy group 350.org .
“We need a leader with John Kerry’s experience and talent at the helm of the State Department. There is much more to do on all of these crucial challenges, from nonproliferation to climate change.” - Hillary Clinton.
I thought it was interesting that Obama did not mention Kerry’s role as "Climate Defender" when he announced his nomination. I guess Obama understood that this is a very hot topic, and if the plan is for his new Sec. State to put the nix on the Keystone pipeline; he had better keep his mouth shut until after Kerry's Senate confirmation.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
-Should the Secretary of State be leading a new global charge directed at climate change?
-Is there anything that might be done to influence the climate?
-Are humans responsible for climate change? Are Americans responsible for climate change?
-Does your opinion of Kerry, as Sec. State, change, now that you know that one reason he is getting the job is to push a climate agenda?
It’s cold out, I’m just trying to turn up the heat.
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the coming collapse of the petro dollar as the worlds reserve currency is the only thing that will save us from their plans!!!
The climate is definitely changing. It's in the air. The storms are more powerful. Let me just give you one personal example.
In 2005 I had to flee Southeast Texas to escape Hurricane Rita. It came right after Katrina, and it barely missed my area.
In 2008 I had to flee Hurricane Ike. To this day I really don't think there's been a recovery. I've since fled permanently, I'm a "climate refugee."
Now, there is no fucking way that 2 powerful Cat. 5 hurricanes in the same area in the space of 4 years is just random noise. And the endless reports of freakish weather around the globe just keep on coming, year after year. It was not like this in the 80s and 90s.
Having said that, I don't think there's anything to be done. We'll burn this planet as surely as we'll print digital money.
Total BS pseudoscience; nothing but silly anecdotes. The Greenland ice cores reveal that there is great variability to the earth's climate, and it is not correlated to the insignificant variations in CO2.
It's been changing for 4.5 billion years. What's new?
Somebody decided to make it into a job w/benefits.
No question, the weather changes are extremely noticeable even in beautiful Jupiter, FL. In fact, it is so cold that the hard hitting rock band Random Play was forced to play inside at the Conch and Crab Bar and Grille rather than the outside patio where they were originally scheduled.
Sacrifices obviously must be made!
Just up the road in Hobe Sound I was forced to cover my orchids.
Also picked my last avocado of the tree before the cold.
Only normaly have winter here befween Jan 1st and 10th.
Early this year.Damn AGW.
Orez, is their a chance you can get into your post to change "7million" to 7 billion?
Given that the proposed solution to global warming is solar and wind power then you have to conclude that those scientists want you killed.
A solar/wind economy could at most support 500 million people.
We now have 7 million people on earth.
These so called "greenies" have a plan they just don't talk about the "termination chambers"
"The Socialist Phenomenon" is very well known to be the manifestation of a primitive suicidal impulse manifested at the macro level of society. Igor Shafarevich did brilliant work on the topic in "The Socialist Phenomenon" and "Socialism in our Past and Future".
Samples here: http://www.savageleft.com/poli/hoc.html
Very good read. Thanks, Bastiat.
Relax, there is no plan to kill a bunch of people. Jee-zuz. Go get some fresh air.
But you are right, about 5 billion people are likely to exit. Not going to be pretty. Makes you wonder if we're doing the right things with the last of the under-$100 crude oil.
But hey it's not my field you know? I wish those people good luck, but they aren't doing to get any.
Those with only "opinions" might also care to view this as well as the link I gave refuting the propaganda that was the "met' study
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/dirtiest-place-planet/
there was once a time where the deserts of now is called Iraq were fertile valleys which gave berth to a Great Empire until monocropping destroyed the soil so much it could not be recovered.
the Nile River valley was also once fertile and home to a Great Empire. now the Egyptians are the #1 importer of wheat in the world.
wonder what will said about the Mississippi River, the Great Plains and the Great Empire that developed around it in a thousand years from now?
I don't know. What do cockroaches dwell on when they discuss history?
Cougar- Wasn't acid rain supposed to have washed all of the paint all off my car by now? Wasn't the ozone layer supposed to have completely disappeared about 20 years ago?
Because this is the bullshit qualified climatologists were saying 30 years ago so just slow your roll with leaving everything to the "experts".
Dr. Bernanke told us all there was no evidence that the housing crisis was spreading beyond subprime borrowers three weeks before he told congress we were headed towards the abyss and need to bailout all the banks.
Acid rain was reduced or solved by changing how coal-burning powerplants and industries manage their smoke stacks. Most of the changes required were costly but governments ran them through, now nobody complains and the world didn't end for capitalism.
The ozone hole remains but is reduced in size, managed by an international treaty to eliminate chloroflourocarbons from industrial uses. Most of the changes required were costly but governments ran them through, now nobody complains and the world didn't end for capitalism.
Those are clear victories, and your car's paint is proof.
Climate scientists are really good at what they do. It's a hard area in which to work but most of the hard questions have now been answered and we can all move on. There you have it. You should pay attention to what they are telling you. Most of the changes required will be costly but governments will run them through anyway, and eventually nobody will complain and the world won't have ended for capitalism.
See a pattern here? It's called progress and it used to be a good thing.
And Bernanke is a paid liar. You can ignore him.
But all that other stuff I said, just goes without challenge.
I guess we will just need to wait until John Kerry enlightens us all. Leave it to the experts. Right?
Right.
Of course, Kerry isn't one of the experts. We'll see who he pulls in to set things straight. Hopefully he circles with the folks doing the real work.
I know I know, you were probably being sarcastic. But I couldn't pass up the chance to agree with someone making sense even if there's an outside chance they were doing so on accident.
John Kerry Kohn will get to the bottom of this just like he did the BCCI affair. /s
Let's phrase the global warming/climate change/do it for the children discussion this way: Any new taxes, fees or spending is first off the table, then let's discuss what can be done. You'll see proponents of "change" quiet down when they realize change can't equal more money.
A few more data points from chilly ole South Florida.
Hell yeah it's cold even 50 miles South of where Bruce's clip indicated in western Palm Beach County. And, yes, the forecast is for 82 Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Speaking of rainfall...South Flordia was in major drought most of 2010-2011. Then came 2012 and Miami-Dade County, for example, was on a pace to exceed the most annual rainfall ever measured. Then came a exceptionally dry November and pretty much the same for December. In October the record was a "done deal" (see link below), but with nine days to go, for Miami it's just under 84 inches and the record is 89.33. Probably ain't gonna happen.
http://www.weather.com/news/miami-challenging-wettest-year-20121003
The beaches got trashed by Sandy especially a half mile stretch in Ft. Lauderdale.
Who knows why...blaming it on the Mayans.
BTW - when it rains a lot we pump the rainfall drainage into the Atlantic. Can't seem to get our act together to store it above ground or force it into the Biscayne acquifier.
I'll put an end to the babble citing the "met" study claiming there has been no warming in the last 15 years. Read it then post something with a smattering of thought first...http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2012/10/15/1014151/ten-charts-that-make...
Did you red arrow fools read it? I doubt it. Gladly await your rebuttal to any information contained in it...waiting...waiting...
PUD, I do not dispute any of your assertions. But you really come off as a righteous crusader. That's offputting.
Too much truth does not win the argument, especially when pitted against too much emotion. The stridency of your statements puts distance between you and those who might want to hear what you have to say.
True believers of all stripes are scary, no matter how right or even how wrong they might be.
A lot of the down votes aren't against what you're saying, but the way it's being said.
Give the sheep a break, they scare easily if you speak too loudly.
"It has nothing to do with the sun and everything to do with co2"
There is more CO2 now than 15 years ago and no global warming in the last 15 years.
"There is more CO2 now than 15 years ago and no global warming in the last 15 years."
See, Bruce? The above is what I'm talking about. A highly technical subject, lots of actual data ... and we get this? Not as a question, not even as an opinion, but offered as a bonafide actual scientic data point and observation without a reference?
Why? Why does this have to happen? How can we go forward with this in our faces all the time? And who benefits? Oh never mind we know who benefits.
Cougar, I am now old enough to see how thoroughly critical thinking skills have not only atrophied in modern society, but are often not even recognized when directly confronted.
I keep coming back here and trying. I tell myself, Cougar old man it's not worth the effort, because it won't change anyone's mind, and even if it did it won't have been enough.
So why do I do it?
Stubborn I guess. Maybe a little bit terrified of what we've done. Fear is a great motivator. I'll be back.
Just a dumbass that way.
I think you've just self-analyzed quite well Cougar - and I sense it in your posts. Fear is driving your thinking. It must be so or you wouldn't be so certain in your views. Do you view yourself as a good investor or stock picker?
You seem fairly thoughtful. Have you ever looked at how good humans are at predicting the future? If so you might realize our record is quite awful. Yet, you are willing to risk much - for everyone else - based on your fear and certainty of the future of the cliamte/weather. What if your wrong and all your prescriptions for "correction" don't make a lick of difference.
We are going to burn every ounce of coal we can find - if not us, our Asian friends - who want all the nice things electricity has provided for us. Are you going to tell them they can't live as well as we do - good luck with that. You are a little too certain of your "cause" in my opinion. Cheers!
you are not alone in these thoughts, for sure. tiananmen square stuff.
but a wise ole mathatician says .618 from say 1890 to present or there about.
say 1 billion to 7 with .382 reduction > grim indeed.
assuming that this is the period of abnormal growth/carbon use phenom :)
where are you living?
The warmest years on record have all occurred in the last decade...hello?
Try 10 minutes of research before you post next ok?
The co2 vs the sun point I made was in regards to oceanic acidification which is expressly related to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and only marginally related to solar contributions to overall global climate change.
Try reading my posts carefully before you post next ok?
Are you sure? Did you check the records for 2000 years ago? What about 500,000? You are awful certain about a very small sampling my friend. Just don't think your ability to predict the future should be relied upon much. Are you a stockbroker, perhaps the one recommending Facebook shares at the IPO price?
The earth is estimated to be about 4.5 billion years old.
How far do the legitimate recorded records go back? What proportion of the earth's surface do those records cover?
"The warmest years on record have all occurred in the last decade"
Link?
You are correct he is DEAD WRONG about that. It's not hard to find the data if you are open minded and look.
>down to –55F in Siberia. That’s cold, a fifty year low.
Global warming? Damn I forget...now it's "climate change". Didn't we have an "ice age" ten thousand years ago before there was any co2...who's fault was that?
Man it's a good thing nobody is asking you to figure it out because you don't know anything.
Then why is the arctic summer sea ice, and glaciers worldwide, in an ongoing multi-decade meltdown that is not only ongoing but accelerating?
Wow.
So apparently the majority of those who have read my comment above are absolute no-nothings who would deny the incontrovertible evidence staring them straight in the face.
My faith in the intellectual honesty and integrity of those reading and commenting on this site is shaken.
Merry Christmas , Happy Holidays to all. Later!
Not surprising that this joke of a president would turn the Secretary of State into the Climate Tsar. How exactly is Kerry an expert on climate change? I thought his expertise was pissing on veterans and crony capitalism.
Nothing makes liberals sound more idiotic than claiming they can control the earth's climate.
Bruce: This is not a good forum to answer those questions. Unless you can get a qualified climatologist in here all you are going to witness is static. I am not a qualified climate scientist but I am a scientist and I'll say that the peer-reviewed evidence supporting observations of anthropogenic climate change is very large. The scientific community has moved on regarding any "debate". Shrill screeching to the contrary not withstanding.
The Russian observation is interesting. We've been seeing a lot of scary winter weather near the Arctic Circle. There is some evidence and supporting analysis that suggests that a temperature-driven slow down in the circumpolar winds (also called "the ring fence") is allowing Arctic air to break out and descent south, sometimes a long way, into areas not normally subject to raw Arctic air. Conditions up there are inhuman -- literally -- and even a little bit of that descending into parts of the hemisphere inhabited by humans is clearly a bad thing. If the theory that temperature shifts is driving this phenomenon is anywhere near accurate then "lethal winters" are likely to become a common event, rather than a 100 years rarity.
The same holds for many other climate-drive weather events. Most people think of climate as being the sum of all the weather in their area, but that's just one way to look at it. The atmospheric conditions that determine average climate can unleash exceptionally violent shifts in weather if they start to break down. Weather becomes ugly and unpredictable suggesting that a shift in climate is in the works.
The picture is muddy, but not subject to debate. It is subject only to analysis now, and how well humans cope will depend on how quickly they move beyond screeching about debates and grappling with a very difficult and potentional quite lethal situation.
Some more very good science here:
http://www.biocab.org/Global_Warming.html#anchor_32
Dr. Richard Lindzen is a qualified climate scientist; his Feb. 2012 presentation to the House of Commons is available here:
https://workspace.imperial.ac.uk/climatechange/Public/pdfs/Opinion%20pie...
Dr. Lindzen's work includes plenty of answers.
Thanks for your input. I especially liked the part about Lethal Winters, but I have a gripe.You say:
This is not a good forum to answer those questions
Why not? Is a degree in climatology required to speak up on this? I'm not at all convinced that the experts have this story right. The scientific side of the equation has bungled this rather badly.
The circumpolar ring fence. Gotta love that.
bk
There's nothing like a good religious argument to get the blood flowing.
This is the perfect place for that.
Well it's your thread, you can post what you like and ask for any input you care to. I find it amusing at worst.
Since you asked why -- why it is not good -- it's because we clearly need to move on. We need to do this. We need to eliminate as much useless invective as we can from what ought to be a purely technical and scientific area of work, so that carefully thought-out analysis, research and policy recommendation can help inform our decisions on matters that may prove critical to the future of the entire human race. I say may prove -- nobody really knows -- but we seem to be upsetting a system that supported 8,000 years of civilization and centuries of plenty. Sounds like a bad thing to me. Shouldn't we start trying to sort that out?
If it sounds elitist "let the egg heads deal with it" then yeah it probably is. But we let doctors figure things out, and engineers, and similar others who spend their entire adult lives devoted to figuring out a complex area of work, so I don't see why we should not extend the same trust and fellowship to climate scientists. If the latter weren't running up against the economic goals of the energy industry there would have been not a peep from any corner. But since they did, we get 20 years of character assasination, propaganda and lies. Well color me unsurprized.
You can open this can of worms all you want to, it's all just entertainment I guess. But every time it comes up and I sense the massive rolling fear-drenched denial I lose a little more hope. I guess some day a miracle will happen and everyone will turn the corner at the same time and all that other blather will have seemed like a quaint tantrum. But for now, it just gets me down.
"An Enemy of the People", by Henrik Ibsen -- have you read it?
It's not my thread. I write the intro, then it goes where ever it goes.
You are "down" about the lack of consensus on climate change? My time frame is much shorter than yours. I'm "down" about the lack of consensus on the fucking fiscal cliff.
Maybe that's the problem. We can't see over the horizon beyond two or three months. There are a host of problems staring us right in the face that we can't come to grip with, and you want the focus to be on something that might become an issue in 20-50 years
Short sightedness = Man's fate?
b