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Cold Wind
Cold wind blowing today in the North East, fitting for the first day of winter. The whole country is having a bit of a cold spell. Even the poor folks in Palm Beach might see a frost (raises hell with the begonias).
I was feeling a bit sorry for the folks in the sun belt before I saw that it was down to –55F in Siberia. That’s cold, a fifty year low.
The topic of weather gets me to a story I’ve been following - the continuing drought in the mid-west. The odds say that two years of severe drought is unlikely, but that is what’s happening. The 30/90-day rainfall is a fraction of normal:
The lack of rain has many negative side effects. One is the water level on the Mississippi. The water is so low that ships, sunk and lost twenty-five years ago, are now visible.
A number of emergency steps are being taken to keeps the river navigable. Thirty miles south of St. Louis there is a rock formation that was once deep below water. Now it’s a risk to barge traffic, so they’re blasting it apart.
A more controversial step was taken to drain water from Lake Carlyle. The hope is that the extra water will raise the northern Mississippi by six inches. Not a big deal considering it's already down by 20 feet. The water drained from Lake Carlyle will keep the upper Mississippi navigable for, at best, another twenty days.
The river is already impaired; it’s getting worse by the day. There will be economic consequences to this. There are not enough trains and trucks to pick up the volume of goods that go by barge. Everything that goes up and down the river is going to get a fair bit more expensive in the very near future. A hell of lot of “stuff” gets floated up and down the Mississippi, so this is one to watch out for.
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There is no connection between this weekend’s weather and climate change (It’ll be back in the 80s down in Boca next week), but I’ll jump to that topic anyway. For those of you who have strong feelings (either way) on matters of climate, there was an important development this week.
It appears that a significant motivation for Obama to nominate John Kerry as the next Secretary of State is that Kerry is going to lead a global effort to “Confront Climate Change”. The Hill has the story on this today (Link), some snippets from the article:
From Twitter:
“Confident John Kerry as state sec is good news for climate. Cross fingers his dedication will make climate a strategic priority. ” Hedegaard - E.U.’s commissioner for climate action.
“One of the most pressing challenges is to reverse potentially devastating climate change. Kerry understands the need to work closely with allies on the most pressing topics – including climate change.” Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)
Quotes:
“I have absolute confidence that Secretary Kerry will be committed to action on climate change as he, is the most knowledgeable, passionate person to break the international logjams on this existential threat.” Rep. Ed Markey (D-Mass.)
“Sen. Kerry will bring vital expertise and knowledge on the issue of climate change as we endeavor to work toward a meaningful, balanced international agreement in 2015,” - Eileen Claussen, the president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions.
“As Secretary, Senator Kerry will face numerous issues that are crucial to both the security of our nation and the future of our planet, including critical decisions on the Keystone XL pipeline.” - Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune.
“Senator Kerry could certainly teach the President a thing or two about how to make a clear and compelling case for climate action. That starts with saying no to the Keystone XL pipeline and then continuing to use the powers of the presidency to regulate emissions and promote clean energy.” - Jamie Henn, co-founder of the climate advocacy group 350.org .
“We need a leader with John Kerry’s experience and talent at the helm of the State Department. There is much more to do on all of these crucial challenges, from nonproliferation to climate change.” - Hillary Clinton.
I thought it was interesting that Obama did not mention Kerry’s role as "Climate Defender" when he announced his nomination. I guess Obama understood that this is a very hot topic, and if the plan is for his new Sec. State to put the nix on the Keystone pipeline; he had better keep his mouth shut until after Kerry's Senate confirmation.
Anyone have any thoughts on this?
-Should the Secretary of State be leading a new global charge directed at climate change?
-Is there anything that might be done to influence the climate?
-Are humans responsible for climate change? Are Americans responsible for climate change?
-Does your opinion of Kerry, as Sec. State, change, now that you know that one reason he is getting the job is to push a climate agenda?
It’s cold out, I’m just trying to turn up the heat.
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Bruce the only problem with the fiscal cliff is that it is not bigger. It's too bad when the "super committee" failed they did not put much bigger spending cuts to go with the tax increases. If so maybe we could finally put a dent in the real problem. They could claw back the last ten years of bonuses by the TBTF Bankers as their contribution to the matter. The federal employees could take a 25% pay cut and a 50% reduction in future benefits across the board as their contribution. Next year would look a lot brighter if they did.
But since I am obviously insane for thinking this, don't get yourself so worked up over the cliff. It's just us lounging on the beach as the water recedes.
While we wait for the tsunami I appreciate your articles. They help keep us occupied.
maybe the fiscal cliff is the beginning of the fiscal change that needs to come about.
but, there i go wish/think/relatation - oh, what a waste of perfectly good mental energy.
because we all know that they will do what is in their self interest to get reelected...
but, maybe we don't have 2 or 4 years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Short sightedness = Man's fate?"
High time-preference = Man's curse?
Heh. Nothing I want to say to that.
Science may be free but the scientists are not. They are controlled by politicians who may not know anything about climate change. All they care about are votes, winning elections, milk the voters, rinse & repeat.
I'm no scientific expert by a long shot, but I get the feeling that today's 'scientific answers' are determined more by the source of the particular study's funding than anything else...maybe I'm just too cynical.
In other words the funders seek out scientific fundees who will provide the scientific answers that the funders seek.
Here's just one example of what I mean in the field of orthopedics:
Now then, who is it that's funding these AGW studies...it couldn't be those that are interested in profiteering from carbon credit trading schemes could it?
Shirley Knot...
Imagine that!
quote from here(bottom of page 4 to top of page 5):
Climate Money
<sigh>
Cougar muses
You left out bankers...
Let's not lump doctors in with bankers. In fact let's not lump bankers in with any other human activity.
Bankers are dangerously parasitic. We all agree to that. Most of humanity tends otherwise.
I don't know, Dr. Krugman is about as dangerous as it gets.
"This is not a good forum to answer those questions" - translated - hey free speech really sucks.
Obviously, ZH'rs are not 'CREDIBLE PEOPLE' sir.
ZH'ers don't have to be experts at everything. The diversity is healthy. But I don't have to give the average ZH'er any slack on strictly technical matters, climate or hedge fund or gold pricing or anything else.
Opinion is one thing, but trying to out-think 2,500 scientists on a techical question is childish.
The science community has not bungled a thing. The media has, the corporate interests have, political interests have.. Science operates by very rigid standards and procedures. Scientists do not vote to arrive at consensus they peer review eachothers work and attempt to falsify it. Science is driven by data not preconceived assumptions. When science arrives at a consensus...like evolution (which is no longer debated except by evangelical nut jobs) it is because of overwhelming data supporting a thesis and theory. There is no debate among credible people about climate change or mans contribution to it. Period.
You forgot to mention that science has never, ever been wrong. And you especially forget to mention that scientists work for free because if they didn't they might have to direct their research towards more "profitable" studies. I'd be curious to know what the typical research expenditures are for climate research as compared to say 30 years ago, at least relative to other sciences.
Considerably more.
They were panhandling for grants back in th 1970's to confirm the that current
theory then;Global cooling.Funny thing is the proponents of that are now the
elder statesmen of the AGW movement.
Times change,but the hunger for OPM in grants never do.
I never heard any apology's back then for being wrong either.
The scientific community is as corrupt as the financial.
Just a quick agreement. Lobotomies and leeches where state of the are medical treatment at times in the not really distant past. Hell global cooling was a threat when I was in high school. Part of what the pro scientist on this thread are missing is that even in the hard sciences change ( of opinion ) occurs in spurts and reversals...
Is this Jerry Seinfeld? You sure have cute little names for evryone. Sucks to have to share the planet with your 'lessers' isn't it.
Actually it does. To have to share this planet with religious idiots, backyard scientists, self centered know nothings with loud "opinions" really does suck. I don't suffer fools lightly and there are way too many of them.
you are dumber than you realize
thanks for the response
LOL
peer review lol, a sermon anyone?
"they peer review eachothers"
LOL
They would allow you to review stuff if you want to.
It really is an open club.
Yes, science has as one of its foundations "peer review" If you think that that somehow allows junk science to pass muster you are a fool. Every scientist strives for excellence and acknowledgment from his peers and the community. They want their work to win the nobel prize. They are savage critics and no one gets a pass. lol yourself
They also know that it's easier to get tenure if you agree with the group. Even undergraduates know that getting a great grade is easier when you agree with the professor.
There is some truth to that. Scientists are humans.
But it doesn't change the actual data though does it? And I'll tell you something else, just as many people get ahead by exposing someone else's crappy work as do by brown nosing the professors.
There is also a lot of difference between research scientists, and academic professors. The latter tend to be more sclerotic and hide-bound, and there is a lot of infighting for tenure. But the former are free of that (apart from some grant gaming) and tend to be quite difficult to handle.
The system tends to work, given time. Pure science is probably the best tool we have for many kinds of human intellectual pursuit.
bravo! brilliantly said and spot on.
Dear Cougar:
You state: "The picture is muddy, but not subject to debate." Your alterego PUD applauds your scientific prowess.
If it is not subject to debate than why pray tell are you here discussing it?
Because I am a scientist, and I feel compelled to correctly represent my craft against unjust detractors as would any other highly trained professional.
That, and I really am afraid that we have already lost a chance at salvaging the situation. I am very afraid. Having that fear and not saying anything would seem to me, for someone in my position, an act of treason against my species.
Same here. The loudest voices are always the least informed and least enlightened. Your perceptions are correct. It is past the point of no return.
I tell you something, I feel like the engineer in the locomotive who looks up ahead in the dark and thinks he sees that the bridge over the chasm is down. The train cannot stop in time given the distance. If the bridge really is out there is going to be an enormous human tragedy and I am powerless to stop it. I could slam the breaks on anyway but it won't matter because the chasm is too close. I could pretend I didn't see what I just saw and hope that the bridge really is there and we sail over the chasm.
Or, I could jump off and save perhaps myself.
The obvious answer is to slam on the brakes, hold on white-knuckled, and ride it out. Useless, hopeless, silly, optimistic, delusional. All that applies, the train goes off the bridge into the chasm and I go with it. Stupid but I tried, I really tried, and I didn't abadon anyone to walk away alone.
Died with everyone else, but that's life we're all in it together anyway, so that's how it ends.
This is me, throwing on the brakes. Good luck everyone.
Look, here's the thing...everyone deep down knows you're right. My "carbon footprint" is as big as anyone's and there is no way that it is not hurting the environment. But when the answer is a cap and trade system that does nothing but put billions into the Goldman squid's pockets hoping to curtail demand by costing me more while not actually addressing the problem and when it has been proven that hundreds of scientists fudged their numbers to get my tax money and be a part of said system then your wailing falls on deaf ears. When you come up with a solution I will be all ears but it is much more likely that you will die from the upcoming economic disaster long before the climate disaster takes you.
Yup. Cap and trade blows chunks. Bad idea. I don't ever want to see it. That's just an opinion from knowledge of human nature, just like yours, but we happen to agree.
I have a solution, but you won't like it nor would it make a lick of sense to you. So I won't say what it is. That's just how it goes, maybe in 20 years I'd be ready to lay it out, but not today. Nope.
Nah.
Throw on the brakes
Yell for everybody else to jump
Jump
In this case, we must simply have the courage accept that which we cannot change.
If it is past the tipping point, no sense further debate, policies, taxation, programs, whatever.
If its over for mankind, so be it.... Nature and Nature's God know whats best for Her
"everbody else jump too"
Knukles, I was just back there in the diner car and those people are too drunk, tried, obese, lazy and in love to jump off a perfectly good train.
But okay, here goes:
Everyone you got a lot less time than you think and you need to jump one way or the other right now or we're all going into a chasm and I don't mean maybe.
Let's see if it works. I'm not hopeful.
You say there is no argument. So you KNOW that humans are causing climate change and you KNOW what we have to do to stop it. And you KNOW what the net effects will be. Its just a shame that we live in a time that is just chocked full of really smart intellectuals that have run our economy into the ditch. I think the term I'm looking for is "credibility". As always so many are willing to tell us what it is we need to surrender to our government, for our own good of course. And as always its the evil rich that are the bad guys and must be called to pay. The actions before the UN are designed specifically to punish the "western developed nations" as we have raped the planet and must be brought to pay. If we were just arguing about science it would be one thing, but this is about power, money, and individual's rights. All of which WE will be the victims.
Yes, I do know. It kinda blows actually.
What is happening with the climate has nothing to do with what people did with their economy. They are just stupid and greedy.
Okay there might be an overlap. My bad.
And actually it would be a really good idea to just do science for a while. You know put all this other monkey business aside for a century or so and just do climate science.
Not going to happen. I know. That also blows.
1. Require everyone, everywhere to paint their roof white.
2. Go long SHW
Follow the $$$ from Kerry to wife, tuhRAYzuh, to algore.
$5 says that Kerry will profit from any climate change legislation....while We The People will pay more.
But....your dismal maps on the rainfall hit square at my home. I'm in a rural area an hour an a half SW of the DFW metroplex. We had an inch of rain back in June, 2.5" in September, other than than just odds and ends not enough to wet the ground.
So....a few nights ago we have a strong front BLOW through (50 mph winds). No official chance of rain, nothing suggesting rain at sunset. I am sitting at my computer when FLASH-BOOOOOM....lightening hits about 100 yards from the house, in the very dry pasture grass. Freakin' A..."the pasture is on fire", I scream to the wife. Dry strike lightening and dry grass...ouch.
End of the story...I grabbed a 5 gal bucket and started running water from my goat water trough out to the fire. Luckily it started raining just enough to let me get ahead of it after about a half dozen trips.
If this drought doesn't beak soon, we are in serious trouble here.
The west has found the answer to global warming. Its Greece. We all just shrink our economies by 4 or 5% per year and we will lower our carbon emissions, lose weight and have vast amounts of built up residential and commercial land revert to wilderness.
While it would be wonderful as always to debate climate change, the real issue is government, and the real problem is the thinking that government can fix ANYTHING. All issues are promoted into crisis's which are ALWAYS used as a tool for deriving more government power, yet NEVER actually fix or solve anything. As a matter of fact virtually everything they have sought to save us from has only grown worse at approximately the same rate as government growth. I never cease to be amazed at the number of people who, in the face of undeniable proof, will continue to believe that their government can save them, but, the worse it gets the more irrational and desperate they become. As the more acceptable remedies evaporate the remaining choices become more bleak, delusion takes over. But hey, the world is headed for a giant shit hole so why not worry about climate or gun laws or healthcare, all of which we can ultimately do nothing about. DISTRACTION
Goldman Sachs will be glad to sell the "cap and trade" credits in any quantity desired.
To anybody or any institution required by law to purchase at obscenely inflated prices for faulty products (aka MBS, muni swaps, etc.)
Fuck it all
Just let the world exterminate the human cockroaches... Mother nature is entirely capable of taking care of Herself.
She'll do just fucking fine after mankind.
Again
Dude. Mother Nature did not come up with the Interwebs. Nor did She come up with single malt whiskey. And I don't think she had much to do with busty redheads but I'd have to get back to you on that.
I kinda like things how they turned out. It's been really fun, you know? I'd like that to go on for -- oh say --- another 5 million years.
I don't know about you, I'm willing to jump all over ZH and bitch about climate change politics if I can maybe get some part of another 5 million years of good whiskey and redheads.
Are you really a scientist? I don't know if I should laugh or cry, cause stupid MF's like you are the reason we've replaced religious dogma to a scientific dogma...
I'm surely not a member of scientific community, but your comment is definitely one of the dumbest I've read in months; yes bitch (like in feminized cougar), Mother Nature is responsible for "those busty redheads" and for the fermentation that produces your single malt. And wishing for a lifespan of 5 million years you are?
No wonder you've been manipulated into believing the AGW scam, since you're scared shitless of the thought of death.
"Fear is a mind killer. Fear is the little death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing..."
~ Frank Herbert (Dune)
You are looking for fish amongst the treetops.
Brilliant. The 2nd Law of Thermodynamics is the bane of eternalists.
I guess concerning Kerry, does it really matter? I see nothing on his resume or in lifestyle that leads me to the conclusion he is some sort of environmentalist guru, or even knows how to spell climate change. Maybe there is, just I haven't heard about it. But, he is one of the boys, a sure and reliable puppet, tried and true, of TPTB so in that regard he is extremely qualified.
How unfair. His yacht gets 5 miles more to the gallon than any yacht of comparable size.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2007/12/10/uk-bali-kerry-idUKSP22303020071210