This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

No Inflation? General Mills Begs to Differ

CrownThomas's picture




 

Repeatedly, all we hear is that Zero Hedge is just some wing nut website. Always stretching the truth about the economy's woes, and constantly claiming hyperinflation is just around the corner. Ya, about that...

General Mills came out Wednesday with their Q3 earnings, and what do you suppose was one of the top points they wanted to make to their investors? Just that they were experiencing significantly higher input costs year-over-year.

As a matter of fact, they say that YOY inflation input costs were actually higher by 2% 3% 5% 8% ...

10%-11%

So is it deflationary for the consumer if the 3rd biggest food company in America is experiencing double digit inflation?

But then again what do I know, I'm just a contributor to a blog. And I don't even have a Phd.

 

 

 

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:02 | 2286409 TrainWreck1
TrainWreck1's picture

After an exhaustive search, I found your blog:

http://robertbrusca.blogspot.com/

Alas the paucity of comments on your insight bespeaks the ignorance of the unwashed masses who might bask in the sunshine of your insight.

I was particularly struck by your comment; "The declines in the unemployment rates have favored the less educated."

This may portend 7 more years of unemployment, er consulting for unwanted PhD economists.

Must go now, getting too emotional...

 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 13:05 | 2286725 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

TrainWreck1 inspired me to check out your blog, Brusca.

I do not wish to expend too much time or energy debating your POV or the specifics of that which you have stated in this thread.

I only wish to say that one's POV can only be as persuasive & compelling as the credibility of the data one chooses to incorporate into their theses, and in that regard, you have some seriously weak links in many of the theses you have presented.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 14:05 | 2286815 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

 

 

I quoted Lizzy.. that is not what I said.. it is what she said.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/next-leg-ponzi-revealed-central-banks-begin-buying-us-stocks-outright-starting-today#comment-2215694

Tyler himself said he was under threat of Law Suit from the JEWS!

Only Sourced and Sited Material is ALLOWED when discussing the JEWS! no personal opinions what so ever!

So what do you mean put up or shut up you coward?

P.S. I would really love to meet you face to face. So YOU! can put up or shut up!

 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 15:56 | 2286870 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I don't know if you're being serious, trolling or have personal issues.

You bring up a completely irrelevant topic, from a distant thread, and just plop it down here, expecting me to provide a more clearly stated, honest response than I already have, and then you challenge me to a personal confrontation?

I really don't wish to debate anything with you, JW. I've defended some Jews and criticized the state of Israel. I've criticized other Jews, such as hawkish zionists who apparently feel they only are equipped with a hammer, hence view all the world's problems as nails.

Was it the fact that I defended Lizzy when she was being assailed from multiple people, including you, merely because she happens to be jewish, that got you in such a rage?

Was it the fact that I stated that I personally believe that Nazi Germany really did have concentration camps built and many Jews killed (as well as millions of Slavs, Poles, Romanians, the mentally retarded, and others) as a matter of German state policy, since I have a great uncle, who I happen to trust, who was among the first U.S. troops to be involved with the liberation of a particular concentration camp, and who saw the carnage first hand (but maybe they put a chip in his brain and he's a robot who was programmed to say such things)?

I try not judge any individual based on their race, ethnicity, religion or sexual orientation. I'm not politically correct in any way, shape or form (I will call a muslim who targets innocent civilians a 'terrorist,' I will call a jew who targets innocent civilians a 'terrorist,' and I will call a christian who targets innocent civilians a 'terrorist'; I've just learned that what an individual believes on an individual basis tells me far more about the morality and 'goodness' of that person, especially if they follow it up with actions, than a pre-determined assumption based on skin color, geographical location, citizenship, whether they worship god and which one they worship - or not - etc.

You bring up a completely irrelevant topic, from a distant thread, and just plop it down here, expecting me to provide a more clearly stated, honest response than I already have, and then you challenge me to a personal confrontation?

Really now? Even if you assume that I'd ever spend the time and effort to "fight you," and assuming that you'd be able to win the fight, how is/are your point(s) [which I legitimately can't truly identify, even now] vindicated?

If it helps you to get over your apparent butt-hurt, I'll pretend that you're correct (even if I don't even know what your point is), and that I'm wrong. Just pledge that you will ignore me henceforth, and I'll certainly do the same for you.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 08:18 | 2286299 bushwarcrime
bushwarcrime's picture

Exactly how I feel about Facebook, should I quit?

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 08:01 | 2286291 Sutton
Sutton's picture

Call up Taco Bell and get their recipes, especially the one that substitutes sawdust for meat.

YUM Brands, indeed.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 06:10 | 2286238 darteaus
darteaus's picture

If you think inflation is only 10-11%, you haven't been to the gun store lately.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 08:36 | 2286319 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> you haven't been to the gun store lately.

Two years ago I bought two new guns, Ruger's AAMOF.  I was noticing a good bit of chatter about gun inflation so I thought I'd check prices to see how brilliant and timely my purchase was.  Two years later I can still buy the same guns for the same price. 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:17 | 2286429 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

Two years later I can still buy the same guns for the same price....

 

They've been able to slash their advertizing expense from their budget and pass the savings on to you.  Their already manufacturing at full capacity.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 09:10 | 2286358 arby63
arby63's picture

It's ammo to watch out for price inflation again this summer....although guns are right behind. Demand is outstripping supply by a wide margin right now. Stores are unwilling to part with their inventory easily because what they have cannot be replaced.

Most manufacturers are moving to a backorder status and most distributors are moving to a total allocation system. This equals a recipe for inflation. It may not be significant but we will see soon enough.

Online sales of firearms has totally changed the landscape altogether. As with many other products, those with deep pockets have been able to work out drop-ship relationships with distributors--those firearms never see a shelf until they end up at a local dealer which then assumes all the paper trail. Look for transfer fees to increase.

Perhaps the most scary thing going on right now is the consolidation of manufacturers under investment firm umbrellas like the Freedom Group. This is more dangerous than anyone can imagine.

Overnight, we could lose Remington, Bushmaster, DPMS, Marlin, New England, and Para Ordnance.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 16:47 | 2287037 holdingontomypants
holdingontomypants's picture

And overnight other gun companies would jump up and take their place. There are many good small name gun companies out there that would and will pick up any slack.

Bulk Ammo such as .223 or 7.62 was hard to find in 2008 and very pricey. The last gun show I attended in Phoenix last month there were plenty of bulk ammo and great prices. I picked up a 1,000 rounds of 7.62 for $229 and 1,000 rounds of 5.56 for $179.

There definately wasn't a shortage of firearms of all type and I was able to buy a good condition 30-30 lever action rifle for $230. Cleaned it up and took it shooting the next day and it fired very nicely.

The anti-gun people can buy all the gun companies they want but they will never be able to buy them all as more and more will just continue to rise and take there place. Heck, I am even thinking of opening my own gun store in my town since there isn't one and the closest one is 30 miles away and I live in a town of 42,000.  

 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:21 | 2286439 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Ammo and Printer cartridges..........

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 09:28 | 2286369 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Has anyone managed to pentrate the corporate shield of the Freedom Group yet.

Don't think its a public company ,so could this be a backdoor to at least stop

or restrict new gun owners.Our 'Dear Leaders" have alredy shown via the Fast and Furious

agitprop scam,that they are capable of anything in the cause of disarmament ?

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:34 | 2286461 grey7beard
grey7beard's picture

>> they are capable of anything in the cause of disarmament

Guns are flying off the shelf faster than the manufacturers can keep up.  I can walk into any gun retailer and walk out with any gun in 15 minutes time.  WTF do you folks keep ranting about they are going to take the guns?  Do  you think anyone is scared of the gun nuts?  It's not like a single ranting gun loon of the  millions of well armed ranting gun loons in this country has ever stood up for anything.  The whole pro-gun/anti-gun issue is just another wedge issue to keep the little people fighting amongst themselves.

 

 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 16:38 | 2287026 Teamtc321
Teamtc321's picture

I wouldn't be so sure about that.....

 

"On October 14, 2009, President Obama and newly minted Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton reversed the longstanding position of the United States and announced public support for an international gun control scheme. 

This breathed new life into the so-called “Small Arms Treaty” and bureaucrats at the UN quickly began working on new ways to redefine gun ownership as a crime.

The next “UN Conference on an Arms Trade Treaty” will be held in New York City throughout the month of July. According to sources at the UN, pushing heavy anti-gun restrictions into the developing language of the treaty is top priority."

"“The hidden agenda of a lot of the people who sought to negotiate a small arms treaty really had less to do with reducing dangers internationally and a lot more to do withcreating a framework for gun control statutes at the national level""

 

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 03:44 | 2286191 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture
.
Sat, 03/24/2012 - 04:01 | 2286173 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

"Repeatedly, all we hear is that Zero Hedge is just some rightwing nut website."

Fixed it:-)

oh and of course no post is complete without the following,

bitchez, adverts for paper gold, ads for singles over 40, links to some fuckwitts blog who claims to know whats going on and will tell you if you subscribe and trav finding a racial connection to whatever the post was about.

Funniest free comedy on the Interweb.

ZH's New Talkywalky chat can be piggybacked using simple software dl'ed from the net FFS!

Apache rules.

Just sayin,

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 19:40 | 2287399 perchprism
perchprism's picture

 

""Repeatedly, all we hear is that Zero Hedge is just some rightwing nut website."

Fixed it:-)"

I don't think so, Chief.  I'm as conservative as they come, and half the leftist comments here make me cringe.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 03:45 | 2288027 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Only half.........

Are you some kinda pinko librul commie?

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 08:01 | 2286290 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

ZeroHedge (and some commenters!) be RIGHT, they be hatin' :>D

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 03:07 | 2286146 connda
connda's picture

Food and energy is removed from core inflation because...

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 09:31 | 2286372 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

Let me 'fix' something in your question.

The answer is this: Food and energy are removed from the core because that is the definition of the core.

I presume you meant to ask why do that and make core the 'target?'

It is not because food and energy are deemed unimportant. But because they are 'volatile' and are uncontrollable.

We are about to find out what that means as the Fed has shifted to headline target away from a core target.

I prefer the core target for this reason: Headline may be what we are most interested in, but the Fed cannot control the headline except over a 2-3 year period. I think that is too long for people to think that the Fed knows what it is doing. Credibility will be under attack as the headline boosted by say higher energy costs soars to 3.5% and stays above 2% for two or 3 years.

While we care about all prices if the Fed keeps the core at 2% what it is guaranteeing is that the inflation for rogue energy and food prices will be kept out of the core. If oil and food prices rise RELATIVE to core the Fed cannot change that relative price but it can control the knock-on effects from oil/food to other prices. After the one-time Shock (hike in the relative oil price) all inflation would settle down to 2%. In the end this is all the Fed can pledge. By focusing on the core the Fed builds credibility by controlling inflation relative to its target even with the headline rate higher. So as a target the core reinforces the Fed's plan/goal, even in the short-run.

And yes people will complain is the core is at 1.9% and headline at 3.5% but the Fed can't 'gun-down' OPEC.

I think it will be hard to target something (headline) you can only control over a period so long people will lose faith in you. This is more of a problem with a dual mandate.

The core target is an expedient. And if the Fed does keep the core at 2% it will be keeping the headline as close to 2% as it can as well since the Fed can never roll back oil price increases or food prices. But if it keeps general inflation (core) at 2% there will be no feedback loop to cause oil or food prices to surge further because of bad policy. Initial rogue price moves in oil may be partly unwound as we saw when oil surged to $150/bbl then slipped back and now is back up above $100/bbl.

Note that while the Fed was more or less focused on 2% core under six years of Bernanke we got core inflation at 1.9% and the headline at 2.1%. Not bad for a period with a significant oil shock.

Like the 'measure or not', the Fed has hit its target using the core.

But now it has focused on the PCE headline and it has an explicit dual mandate.

I hope that helps to clear things up for you.

Despite the sniping done at the Fed for a core target it makes a lot of operational sense and it has worked - even if you were not anorexic and did not walk to work.

B

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:42 | 2286456 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

By focusing on the core the Fed builds credibility by controlling inflation relative to its target even with the headline rate higher. So as a target the core reinforces the Fed's plan/goal, even in the short-run.

And yes people will complain is the core is at 1.9% and headline at 3.5% but the Fed can't 'gun-down' OPEC...

 

Inflation is the result of federal reserve currency "creation".  Additional federal reserve created units in the float of the world economy.

The 2 main pools of these credits are in the right and left side of the circulatory system, domestic and foreign held.  The fed's overproduction has resulted in vast amounts of blood in the foreign side of the body and you're rigjht, they have lost control.

Without the respiratory system, (domestic productivity), this vast amount of deoxygenated blood, (petro dollars / timmy bills) now threatens to overtake the body.  We have both systolic and diastolic pressure rates rising but to say the diastolic isn't as high as the systolic means we're alright is patently false.

 

But then again what do I know, I'm just a contributor to a blog. And I don't even have a Phd.

 

imo.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:46 | 2286486 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

the fed can't gun down OPEC but the other fed tries to

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 11:19 | 2286531 Boxed Merlot
Boxed Merlot's picture

but the other fed tries to...

 

Not so sure about that.  I think the other fed, at least our cheif executive is very astute at bowing and kissing the hand of his SA handlers.  Saudi land is lining up a wall of oil heading for Houston timed to hit just in time for November. Nothing more than a shot of adrenaline to manipulate our election process again.

Just because our phds know how to administer drugs in the body to make it jump and shout, doesn't mean it's healthy to do so.

 

jmo.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 11:35 | 2286576 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

They do but the Sauds are not the only ones on the list. The Sauds know  well the history of the middle east. This is honor amongst thieves

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 01:49 | 2286077 Dingleberry
Dingleberry's picture

Thanks "hero" Ben.....you fucking piece of shit.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 09:34 | 2286379 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

Yes he is a hero... he kept the PCE pace to 2.1% on average over six years despite an oil shock. That's amazing...

Compare that to you, a person with a foul mouth who is clueless.

Go Ben!

Mon, 03/26/2012 - 10:47 | 2290895 mikemcsaudi
mikemcsaudi's picture

You're making this too easy Robert ...

I'm guessing that you were the cheerleader on the Titanic after the captain hit the iceburg? Am i correct?  "It's only a scratch ... You're doing a great job sir!"

You can't see the forest through the trees ... you are missing the entire point of the economy, we have $15+ trillion in debt that CAN NEVER BE PAID BACK ... NEVER!   It's going to go up to $20 Trillion in debt over the next three years ... IF we are lucky and the derivatives market doesn't first blow up and set us back to the stone age.

The only thing the Fed is doing right now is buying time.  That's all they can do.  Nothing else.  The inevitable is going to happen.  The dollar is eventually going to loose the faith of the people and of other nations.  You can then throw ALL of your text books away and actually live in a society that has to undergo a complete renovation of their entire economy.  

Look around you.  WHY are Central Banks buying physical gold and silver???  Why?  Because they KNOW what is going to happen.  WHY are countries like Russia, Vietnam, China and India buying physical gold and silver??? Because they KNOW that the global economy is going to blow and they ONLY thing that will have worth are real commodities (to include oil, food, real estate, etc.).  Not fake money that is "not worth the paper that it's not printed on" (Allow me to steal a quote from Gerald Celente). 

If you are TRULY serious about your profession, you will take a step outside of your world of books and use sites like Zero Hedge and others to really really SEE what is happening around you.  The evidence is all around you.  Just take off your blinders. 

 

 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:56 | 2286505 Solarman
Solarman's picture

An amazing feat of magic with energy costs up 80% over four years (my employee's healthcare rates are doubled).  For my business, I have already cut to the bone, and now I turn away business at my capped retail price as it is no longer profitable for me to pursue it (not every customer is equally profitable).  I think this is where you will see a collapse in economic activity, while core price remain elevated.  The FED is on an increasingly accelerating hamster wheel of credit creation to banks who are leveraging it into hard asset purchases and not to the market place who can't absorb the credit.

 

The FED has fixed nothing

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 01:15 | 2286048 FrankDrakman
FrankDrakman's picture

But then again what do I know, I'm just a contributor to a blog. And I don't even have a Phd.

Exactly. That's why everyone here is just dying to know what Paul Krugman and the Bernank think.

Or, just dying.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 04:16 | 2286185 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

I been posting quotes from krugman on here (without crediting him) and getting up arrows, most ZH'ers get told who to hate by ZH and then spend their time doing so, most are unable to understand whats going on, scared by it and need it simplified into oceania good/eurasia bad.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 16:39 | 2287027 malek
malek's picture

You don't seem to get the problem with that Krugman guy: he is very smart, knows pretty much all the details, also often comes up with correct conclusions (and quotes) to certain parts of the overall problem - but then the next second he has no restraint switching to pure propaganda mode in pushing or defending completely unworkable or delusional overall "solutions."

These are the most dangerous liars.

Sun, 03/25/2012 - 03:41 | 2288024 Colonial Intent
Colonial Intent's picture

Thats because krugmans arguments are based on perception, not reality.

Krugman is accurate (if everyone drinks the cool aid)

Last recession i thought they cant reboot the system everyone knows its bollox.

I completely underestimated peoples ability to deny reality for a short term gain.

That said, if reality breaks out who will take our paper money outside of the west?

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 07:59 | 2286289 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

[quote]

One should constantly remember that no solution to the financial crisis has been installed, nothing fixed, no big banks liquidated, no end to monetary inflation, no end to outsized USGovt deficits, no end to secretive subterranean support of stocks and bonds, no revival of the housing market, no discharge of big bank home inventory, no return of US industry from Asia, no interruption to the endless costly wars, no end to money laundering of narco funds to Wall Street banks, no end to the propaganda obediently pumped out by the US press & media networks, and no change of Goldman Sachs running the USGovt finance ministry.  Expect no change in anything that you believe in.  Expect no change to the 0% policy (ZIRP) with no change to the heavy monetary inflation (QE), as the path to ruin is set, and the policy of Inflate to Infinity cannot be stopped.

[/quote]

Focus on the ball, "BE the ball, Danny!"

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 09:48 | 2286395 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

I like this. and agree.

The Fed's biggest challenge lies ahead - so far so good on inflation, but THAT is not victory.

US MFG jobs are supposed to be coming in already. The large cache of natural gas is drawing them like flies. We are suddenly energy abundant.

Financial crisis is lingering. Too big to fail not fixed. Dallas Fed has push on...

Bad regulation is hardly fixed (MF Global). But Corzine may just have been caught; see new Bloomberg story... I was on TV set with Pimm Fox shortly after five PM on Friday when that story broke.

War yes...still a problem

NO cancer cure.

Maybe a 'cure' for male baldness! Hey that's something...

No world peace.

I just want peace on blog. Peace on earth is asking too much. Can we have peace on blog?

Thanks

AMEN

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 01:54 | 2286080 barliman
barliman's picture

 

Let's not split hairs ...

Everyone here would celebrate if one or both of this individuals would show the good grace of "canoe-ing" their frontal lobes with a well placed pistol round.

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as being truly disgraced and not being able to show one's face anymore.

barliman

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 00:48 | 2286011 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Need it to live (eat it, use it, etc)? It's going up from inflation (well, dollar debasement, but why quibble).

Mortgaged it, can live without it, or can't buy it on credit? It's deflating.

It's that ultra-instigatin' hyperstagflation y'all!

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 00:34 | 2285999 Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

You should have read the comments from nestle Coffee Buyers in 2011 about how difficult it was to contract supplies with 90% bags traded being bought by financial investors making forward purchases for manufacturers impossible

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 01:07 | 2286040 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx for sharing your research.

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 01:05 | 2286035 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Heard a JPM exec talking about how Bythe was making a fortune for JPM on commodities - with a side note about all the tankers sitting offshore full of oil (and a side comment about what the liability might be if somethign happened to one of those tankers).

 

I'll give him credit for questioning whether a financial firm should be involved in such things.........   although coincidentally - just before the PM smackdown this week - he was making inquiries about where to buy PM's.....(I guess Blythe only knows where to get paper).

 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 00:50 | 2286014 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Blah Blah Blah Gary Gensler Can't Hear You Blah Blah Blah

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 00:01 | 2285958 Tanks-on-the-streets
Tanks-on-the-streets's picture

Business idea from 18 months ago - buy and hoard hygiene supplies. My favorite commodity is toilet paper. Ass wipe has outperformed the greenback by a large margin in that period. I can't wait until this $2.50 toothpaste becomes $15!!

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 12:05 | 2286634 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Get SeLECT Defense on your teeth, and you won't have to use toothpaste anymore.

Best thing I ever did in my life, man.  Zero plaque.  I just brush my gums now, and even that is just out of habit.

http://www.selectdefense.com/products_dental_sealants.html

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:41 | 2286478 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

an ass wipe in the hand is worth two in DC

Fri, 03/23/2012 - 23:57 | 2285951 hairball48
hairball48's picture

Don't you love what manufacturers are doing with packaging? Used to be "stuff" came in somewhat "standard" packs and containers. 16 oz bottles are now 14oz. 5lb packages are now  72oz. V8 juice is now in 11 1/2oz cans instead of 12oz...on and on.

 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 09:39 | 2286382 RobertBrusca
RobertBrusca's picture

stores are supposed to print unit prices ($/oz). if not bring a calculator. Your phone must have one already.

pain in the but, but ....

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 10:33 | 2286460 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

or hit Costo. Costco with its large items and less frequency in unit change has been an enhanced view of inflation over the last two years. 

Sat, 03/24/2012 - 08:15 | 2286298 krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

Yeah, 12oz is the 'new' pound. I ask people to find me a pound of bacon or a pound of coffee...What?! This is only 12oz!  I'm waiting for them to monkey with the scales in the deli and produce, why the suspense of repackaging? Just change the scales. I imagine they'll go to metric next since they stopped trying to teach that in schools in what, the 70's? "Look it's a FULL liter of ice cream now, it was a HALF gallon before! Winning!"  There's more air in cereal boxes and a bag of chips than there is product. 'Some settling of contents may occur.' BS, you're 'settling' for less but paying the same price. Stick to locally produced products and buy in bulk. If they don't produce anything locally where you live, well, you might want to move. Sam Kinisson said it best: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0q4o58pKwA

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!