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The New Era of Oil Renaissance

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By EconMatters

Where Nuclear Failed, Oil Succeeded


In a continuation of our series on the state of the oil industry we look at some of the other ramifications of what we are labeling the Oil Renaissance in the US, and around the world for that matter.  This phrase was first proposed regarding the potential Nuclear turnaround here in the US, where companies like NRG Energy, Toshiba and many more players all along the supply chain were positioning themselves for the Nuclear Renaissance of cheap, and abundant Nuclear energy for the next 50 years.

 

Well, the natural disaster in Japan changed that movement in the span of a week of just untenable radioactivity readings coming out of Japan.  An already uphill battle for changing public sentiment towards the dangers of nuclear energy became an impractical fight from an investment standpoint that relied upon large DOE loan guarantees to attract private investment.

 

It is ironic, but all these companies spent a lot of time and effort from lobbying to developing strategic partnerships with each other, and in the end, most of that 7 year effort had to be written off by firms. It really shows how firms have to get the industry right; Oil was so much the smarter play. Higher margins, better technology, much easier safety hurdles, and even the environmental fight is much more manageable.

 

Not to mention the number of jobs created is far more with an Oil Renaissance as opposed to a Nuclear Renaissance, even with a complete buildup of the entire nuclear supply chain. Nuclear projects are just not scalable like oil projects are from a numbers standpoint due to the regulation, lead times for components, inspection, build times, and many more constraints.

 

No DOE Loan Guarantees: The Free Market at Work


We are going to have a Renaissance in this country, it just happened under everyone`s nose. The free market of high oil prices for the last 10 years made it happen all on its own without government subsidies, and part of the reason that things are going to get real tough for the alternative energy folks over the next 5 years as those government subsidies wind down. They will not make sense from an economic standpoint once oil prices come down considerably, and from a budgetary perspective we can no longer afford this propping up industries that cannot sustain themselves on their own merit in the free market. A 16 trillion dollar debt and climbing means the environmentalists will now be facing an uphill fight on Capitol Hill to have their cause funded by the American taxpayer. 

 

Technology Changes: Heart Surgery meets the Oil Patch


The technology changes alone in the oil industry are amazing; just watch a horizontal drilling or fracking video and it is like all the advances made by the medical community for endoscopic procedures and advanced heart surgical techniques have been applied to the oil industry. And the cost is far more manageable than the medical field with all the added insurance costs, out of control bureaucracy, and government intervention all but eliminating any sense of free market principles.

 

Sure these constraints exist in the oil industry, but the healthcare industry is on a planet of its own and worse from a cost efficiency standpoint by a factor of at least a 100. There is not an ounce of free market in the healthcare industry!

 

 

Fracking Diagram

 

We haven`t seen anything yet as this new technology being refined and implemented here in the US will then be fully scalable around the globe, and the amount of new projects that will come online globally with this new technology over the next ten years has yet to be priced into any market intelligence models.

 

Natural Gas Industry as the Model


The natural gas industry is much smaller than the oil industry, and because of the new technology firms were actually continuing production with $2 natural gas because of much lower overall project costs relative to the size of the gas exploitable and other derivative products made along the way enabling  these projects to be profitable.

 

The oil industry is much more scalable from a cost standpoint, and once these upfront costs have been committed, the size of the industry and scalability means that projects can continue and be highly profitable even with much lower oil prices.

 

I previously have thought that this technology would suffer as prices drop, but I am rethinking this assumption with natural gas as my guide in a much less scalable industry. So I now believe that this technology and these projects will continue and be cost effective even with oil dropping to $45 a barrel for both Brent and WTI.

It won`t happen overnight, but under one scenario prices will just steadily trend down like natural gas prices, and before we realize it we have the equivalent of $2 natural gas prices for the oil industry.

The China Factor: Use less Commodities for Next Decade


My assumption about the trajectory of oil prices also relies on the China factor that many analysts have been toying with for the last couple of years, but the IMF and others have done some nice research on and applied some hard numbers to the conceptual idea that China has overinvested for the last decade by a large degree, and most of the previous forecasts for China`s growth trajectory from an infrastructure standpoint for the next 10 years are far too optimistic.

 

My conclusion is that China will use far less commodities than they did the past decade going forward for the next decade. They are coming into the constraints of large numbers where you have built for the sake of building, and you can no longer build another large new city every year because the demand just isn`t there. Basically, the easy, low hanging fruit has been eaten. Most of the new project benefits will not justify the cost based upon infrastructure constraints, logistical incongruities, and actual demand & societal need for said projects.

The societal costs outweigh the societal benefits and the projects evaluated in total become a net drag on growth and GDP in the overall calculus. China can go ahead with these projects but the law of diminishing returns, means the country will pay a heavy price to do so. China will continue to grow, but they will grow in a more sophisticated way from a social perspective from within, i.e. in a metaphorical Maslow`s – Hierarchy of Needs manner, and less of a brute, infrastructure driven manner.

Ergo, the lower utilization for commodities by China is another factor that will put downward pressure on Oil and other commodities over the next 5 to 10 years.

 

More Storage Capacity Needed Globally


Make no mistake these oil and commodity projects are going to go full stream regardless of price due to sunk costs, more efficient operations, job creation, and overall profitability.

 

One of the takeaways out of this analysis is that storage facilities will have to be upgraded and new ones coming online for all commodities. For example in Oil, my analysis concludes that Cushing will need to upgrade capacity to over 100 million in the next couple of years, and over 150 million by 5 years’ time.

 

My new analysis determines the need for even more pipelines being built out of Cushing as well. There will need to be at least 5 million barrels per day outflow from Cushing to refineries by five years’ time; can anyone say job creation opportunities here?

 

The next substantial upgrade besides the paltry 300,000 per/day upgrade this year will not come online until mid-2014 and only improve capacity to 850,000 barrels per/day outflow from Cushing which is not going to be enough to counter an exponential measure of domestic production coming into the Cushing energy hub by 2014.

 

But I am forecasting that not only will Cushing be above 100 million in storage in three years’ time, but the US will need capacity to store over 600 million barrels by four years’ time, and China who is building storage currently, will need to meet their own need for storage due to a massive oversupply in their country.

 

China was building storage initially for strategic purposes, but my analysis concludes that because of an oversupply issue similar to copper today in China, they are going to need this additional storage for excess supply issues.

 

 Therefore, if you’re in the storage facility business, times will be good for the next five years, plenty of business for these firms. As I think storage facilities will have to be built all around the world from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Africa, and the Scandinavian countries.

 

A New Price Model for Oil


So how low can prices go? Let`s just say that the Renaissance in oil is going to be good for the global economy, just back in 2003 gasoline prices were $1.60 a gallon in the US and oil was trading around $30 a barrel.

 

It is not unreasonable to think if the Oil Renaissance takes the path that it is capable of that Oil globally trades all the way down to the $45 area.

 

What Price do the Saudi`s Really Need? Need & Want Confused


And those that think that OPEC would need $75 to keep up production, remember that OPEC still kept pumping oil only four years ago with $33 oil in 2008. Furthermore, OPEC countries still need the overall revenue not the price per say.

 

Accordingly, you could very easily have a scenario where prices go lower and they pump more, violate reduction quotas because they all want the revenue net of volume and price, not just less volume but slightly higher prices.

 

I think the world will be surprised how the talking your book rhetoric of “we need $75 oil to justify production” is replaced with the actual, “we need the money and our real cost is so much lower than you could ever imagine” reality on the ground.

 

This is their one asset in these countries, some revenue stream is better than no revenue stream, and with global production picking up OPEC `s relevance, power, and influence on prices is diminishing by the day.

 

Great OPEC you can reduce production, your global competitors will love that, less competition for them. The only problem is that these countries need the money, every country needs the money these days, and that`s the market place you take what you can get on the market! The market goes in cycles, just as the housing market re-priced itself, so will the oil market!

 

The ironic point here is that often the lower prices go, the more oil that is produced trying to make up in volume for the lower price to get as much revenue as possible. 

 

$45 Oil & $2 Gasoline: Consumers Love this New Era


In conclusion, we are entering a new Renaissance in the oil market, not just in the US, but globally as well.

 

New technology, slower growth in the emerging markets over the next decade, and an era where a decade of high prices will finally bear some fruit with market dynamics working as their supposed to leading to more supply, and an eventual reduction in prices.

 

Expect this new era to manifest itself in giving the entire world a tax break, and small businesses and consumers worldwide will have more disposable income, and sectors such as retail, entertainment, transportation, and global travel will benefit as a result of this sea change in the oil industry.

 

I could even envision the manufacturing industry in the US getting a large piggyback effect as the US will have some of the cheapest energy costs of anywhere in the world for starting a business with an abundance of natural gas, oil and petroleum products for the next decade at a low and stable price.

 

How does $45 a barrel oil and $2 a gallon gas sound? Something the peak oil folks thought was an outright impossibility just 5 years ago.

 

But a lot of things can change real fast, once technology gets involved, impossible things become possible. Just look at smartphones versus 4 years ago, and the fact that I can deposit a check into my checking account via my smartphone, actually surf the net, get usable navigation directions, and watch Netflix movies on my smartphone.

 

The world history of scientific innovation being applied to markets is remarkable to say the least looking back, it’s now time for the oil market to have its second renaissance. Expect $45 oil in the future of this renaissance.

 

Further Reading - Oil & Gasoline Markets End 2012 with Swollen Inventory Levels

 

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Sun, 12/30/2012 - 22:07 | Link to Comment Pejorative Requiem
Pejorative Requiem's picture

I guess if, like Bruce Krasting predicts, Obama lifts the public lands moratorium and also lets the pipline fly..... 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 21:07 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Absolutely hilarious...

I don;t have the heart to ask him why the average initial flow rates for the Bakken wells are already down 20% as the best prospects are drilled first....

Oh yeah and there is this

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2012/12/future_producti.html

 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Geithner_the_Pe...
Geithner_the_Perverted's picture

Such a clueless article.  For example : "No DOE Loan Guarantees: The Free Market at Work" indicates that the author has no idea about the massive fiscal subsidies accelerated depreciation method.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Elmer Fudd
Elmer Fudd's picture

Well, they are definitely drilling deeper in old areas, but 3mi below ground = $45 a barrel doesn't really make sense.  Extending the peak, maybe, but to call it a Renaissance is quite a reach.  

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:37 | Link to Comment markar
markar's picture

$2/gal gas again? Where to begin blowing this hallucination apart?  

In your dreams.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:29 | Link to Comment UncleFurker
UncleFurker's picture

 

This article appears to have conveniently forgotten about the destruction of the water table that goes hand in hand with fracking.

Fracking is no use if you end up poisoning the land above it.

Unless you're only thinking short term. Oh, wait.

 

 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:27 | Link to Comment Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

It is quite frankly more than a little irritating that so many people on this website just sop this "fracking pollutes groundwater" bullshit up with a buscuit while being soooo skeptical of everything else.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Little Drummer Boy by Jars of Clay
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHzxpECFm2Q (4:13)

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Radical Marijuana
Radical Marijuana's picture

Yeah, the comments above already stated everything I thought when I read this article. While it may well be correct with respect to the possible short-term future, the longer term outlook is that same old exponential growth, headed towards overshooting into catastrophic collapses. Only profound paradigm changes could be enough, however, those appear politically impossible. The real world IS controlled by the people who are the best at being dishonest, and backing that up with violence, which is WHY everything is based on the short-term, and nothing about the longer term matters much.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:26 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

From the IEA December oil market report.

A MARKET IN TRANSITION 

"On the surface, the oil market appears calm. With so much in the world seemingly on the brink, crude

price trends look as close to a flat EKG as they have in months. Prices have been easing, but gently,

within a relatively narrow band, in stark contrast with the wild roller coaster ride of earlier this year. On

closer examination, market fundamentals tell another story.

Recent data have helped to show two key areas of almost violent structural change in sharp relief. The

first has to do with an apparent acceleration in the eastward shift of global oil demand growth. Latest

data show European oil demand underwent the steepest contraction y?o?y in 3Q12 since the 2008?2009

financial crisis, even as Asian oil demand remained remarkably robust.





While there clearly are similarities between Europe’s situation now and then, the differences are even

more striking. The last time European oil demand nosedived as it did this summer, international oil prices

had been in freefall. Not only are crude prices holding up, but European consumer prices hovered near

record highs this summer, buoyed in part by a weakening currency. This was likely part of the reason for

the dip in demand.

Three years ago, Europe was broadly in sync with Asia and the rest of the world. Today, there is a clear

contrast not only in oil demand trends, but also in economic growth between Europe and Asia. North

America falls somewhere in the middle. Everywhere, uncertainty prevails. China is sending out mixed

economic signals. Meanwhile, whether the recent plunge in European oil demand is part of a trend or

just a one?off is unclear. Early data show demand bouncing back in October, but may be revised.................."

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment THE DORK OF CORK
THE DORK OF CORK's picture

I don't see it..........

The $ price may fall off a cliff if Europe becomes third world - buts that not success in my book especially if one lives in Europe.

 

 

The global euro credit inflation has been beyond devastating.
The cost of capital (peak oil) has been rising since 1998.

See page 6 for all that needs to be known in this striking numbers breakdown.
http://www.iea.org/stats/surveys/mps.pdf

Their banking “investments” have merely driven up the cost of capital to unheard of heights.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Pay Day Today
Pay Day Today's picture

Fairytales, anything to try and convince the masses that BAU can and must continue as is.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:02 | Link to Comment eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

The main reason oil succeeded? The politics of power.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:59 | Link to Comment CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

 

1) Fracking is not a new technology.  It has been around about 20 years.  It is getting use now only because the price of oil is high enough to pay for the enormous costs (both in energy and dollars) to drill a well intended to be horizontal.

2) Fracking increases permeability of sandstone layers between a sandwich of shale layers.  The oil is not in the shale, it's in the sandstone, and the drill bit snakes along horizontally fracking the sandstone.  The good news on this is you get oil.  The bad news is the oil flows to the hole you made only from the horizontal layer, not spherically up and down.  This limits what can come out of a single well, and explains why such horizontals empty out very quickly with initial flow rates of 1000 barrels/day and then within 18 months down to about 450, and then a year later 100.  You can say a well will produce for 25 years, and it will, but in year 25 all that comes out is 1 barrel/day.

3) This huge decline rate means you have to drill frantically, expensively, to get production to climb, and that has taken place over the past 2 years.  But, frankly, we're running out of drill rigs to drill that frantically.  Rig count has been falling in the Bakken.  Production rate will do the same somewhat soon.

 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:25 | Link to Comment Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

Fracking has been around much longer than that.

Oil is not the real success story here.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:35 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

we're running out of drill rigs to drill that frantically.

You're kidding... right ?  Half of the dryland rigs in North America are parked.

And at 1000 bbl/day each well generates plus or minus $20 million in the first year.  Not bad for a well that cost substantially less than $10 million to drill.

Technology is a bitch when you still have buggy whips to sell. 

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:28 | Link to Comment Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

And how many of those rigs are capable of drilling horizontally, hmm?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:55 | Link to Comment Coast Watcher
Coast Watcher's picture

Extraordinarily short-sighted article, showing no real understanding of what's happening with fracking, oil production, or Saudi Arabia. Tyler posted this because ...?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:15 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

Sunday Humor? We need humor daily to help cope with the situation we find ourselves in. Zerohedge needs it's comic relief characters to offset all the doom and gloom.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

It is just another bit of "Leo lite".

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:46 | Link to Comment Market Analyst
Market Analyst's picture

Great article, peak oil has always been a marketing scam, just like tunafish will kill ya, finding bigfoot, or six-minute abs:)

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:09 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

Eat a can of tuna twice a day for a month and see if you don't get hospitalized with mercury poisoning.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:44 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

& Radiation poisoning

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:19 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

peak oil has always been a marketing scam

Yeah, that is why we are now sending multi-billion dollar rigs into hurricane-prone areas to drill for oil two miles deep under three miles of ocean.  Idiot.

If you think that peak oil is a scam, please peruse a chart of US oil production over the last century, and then tell us why that production is today only a fraction of what it was 50 years ago, despite much higher real (inflation-adjusted) oil prices today.

Every major oil field has already, individually, experienced "peak oil", yet you think that these inevitable production declines are a "scam"?  Really?  I sure hope that my children are not going to the same school that 'educated' you.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:27 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

akak

Oil supply and energy in general will follow relative prices. World supply has gone upwards continually even while U.S. supply has fallen.

Just as coal, wood and cattle dung kept your predecessors warm oil and gas will ultimately be substituted as their relative scarcity grows.

And even though oil is in relative abundance at the moment, it is a market controlled by well-monied interests.  If prices fall very far, it won't be for very long. The game of pattycake between Big Oil and the Banking Cartel is finely tuned.

Peak Oil is a relative concept not an absolute.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 19:45 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

 

Peak Oil is a relative concept not an absolute.

Actually, based on my understanding of the theory, I believe that you are wrong Kayman --- Peak Oil IS an absolute concept.  It is simply the recognition that, for any extractive, non-renewable resource, production will inevitably hit a peak and then a decline. 

Not only is this principle demonstrated by innumerable historical examples, but by logic itself, as the earth is not an infinite system.  I honestly can't understand how anyone could argue against it, as they are arguing against reality itself.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:05 | Link to Comment Tekrunner
Tekrunner's picture

Haha, thanks for the laugh.

... wait, this article is meant to be taken seriously?

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 18:25 | Link to Comment akak
akak's picture

Well, it certainly lubricated my funny bone and fueled several hearty guffaws!

In the end, though, it seems to me that the author is focused on the best-case short-term picture, and utterly ignores the very rapid depletion rate of wells dependant on fracking and horizontal drilling to squeeze the last few drops out of the formerly well-sodden sponge.  All these putative, short-term, short-sighted techo-fixes to the problem of depleting fossil fuels are analogous to slamming on the accelerator of a car on "E" in the attempt to build up as much speed as possible, in order to coast as far as possible, once the gas tank goes totally dry.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:58 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Grammar police note - Was funny above to read:

« ... OPEC countries still need the overall revenue not the price per say ... »

Ha! I liked that  ... 'per say', or maybe 'pear say' too

Should have been price 'per se', Latin, meaning 'through itself' 'in itself' or 'by itself'

---

As for the cheery 'Plenty of cheap energy!' viewpoint above, interesting to compare with the general run of articles on 'The Oil Drum' forum where so many of the energy experts hang out

Diverse viewpoints there, but very few of those people think a new era of cheap petrol and 'happy motoring' is about to re-start ... Great site on energy and great comment sections with the articles

http://www.theoildrum.com/

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 17:48 | Link to Comment balz
balz's picture

I've rarely read such a display of pure technological-freak BS.

If you believe that a finite resource can fuel the future, you are so wrong it's not even needed to try to teach you otherwise.

Nuff said.

Peak Oil is here, whatever those techno-freaks try to do.

Sun, 12/30/2012 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Enslavethechild...
EnslavethechildrenforBen's picture

I want some of whatever he's on.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!