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Housing market is off to the races-in Seattle anyway
Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls
This is a REAL story title on Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/bidding-wars-erupt-as-u-s-suppl...
This link is for that story and is especially for my new best friend (who would stab me in the back in an instant) 'Clowns on Acid'. Mr Clown thinks housing will never recover and he chides me about it on every post I make even when I don't write about housing so Mr Clown this is for you and you mega-intellect. By the way why not put something out there beside a snide comment?
I guess it is my personal mission in life (yes, Mr Phelps, so long as I choose to accept...and I realize that everyone will disavow any knowledge of my role in this tawdry mission) to see that Bozo-bell does not run afoul of the latest in housing trends.
He is so prone to believing that last years new's was brought down from the mount carved on stone tablets by Moses and appears incapable of dealing with change. Ah pessimists repent!
Housing is rising from the dead, rolling back the great stone and revealing its true healthier self to you AND IT ISN'T EVEN EASTER YET!
Just in Case-Shiller
The Case-Shiller home price index posted another house price drop, as we expected it to this time of year (-3.8% in January 2012 compared to -4.1% in December 2011). This series is not seasonally adjusted. But the yr/yr decline was cut again. This is another house price series where the second derivative is improving, Mr Clownster. And, YES falling prices are 'good news' if they are falling by less and not falling by much. And such is the case here (the Sase-Shiller in fact).
The link to the Bloomberg story (should you choose to follow- your mission impossible) tells of housing scarcity in Seattle and bidding wars on homes put up for sale.
The bidding is probably best in Seattle if the home for sale has an anti-war sign on the front lawn if I know Seattle (and I do).
The point is not NOT NOT that the whole housing market has turned on a dime so fast that the Earth's crust is going to shift over its hot mantle and make the North and South poles reverse AIII CARUMBA!!! But that there are pockets of real improvement in this economy, in this housing market at this time.
The MACRO data may not be the best way to track housing since all housing, even more than politics, is local. There are still tons of problems but not everyone has a credit dilemma, or an underwater mortgage. Still I DO NOT -DO NOT- look for a surge in mortgage applications.
I hear that some people think that if the economy strengthens and rates start to rise there will be a SURGE in mortgage activity.
WEll, HEAR THIS: THOSE DAYS ARE OVER.
Banks still want a credit rating that is so high that there will not be eligible borrowers enough to crowd the doors of this theater even if you call out 'fire!' at the top of your lungs.
So be content with various pockets in the housing market improving. Las Vegas and Florida are staying under a heavy burden of oversupply and foreclosure. With trouble in the Midwest because of a hollowed out industrial sector, we still have a country that can have pockets of recovery and enough of it to bring the market as a whole into recovery, save those regions so afflicted that recovery will wait for more structural changes to take root... or demolition (Detroit?).
Play the song, "The times they are a structurally a changin'"
So there it is, another comment on housing. and, dang if it isn't positive.
And now I look for a You-Know-What-storm of negative commentaries by people who continue to drive their cars by looking though the rear view mirror and whose favorite words encompass four-letters.
Sorry boys and girls,
facts is facts.
Now it's time for Mr Clowns on Acid and his three ring circus of naysayers
here's...clowny!
Look for the commentary but don't expect much insight. It would be good to hear any positive stories people could chuck in between the snarkiness.
Best,
Bob
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More Horse Shit! I just clicked this for a laugh.
I'm in Washinton State and houses have dropped 10% in the last fucking week!
Skagit county!
http://www.johnlscott.com/PropertyDetail.aspx?GroupID=265722797&ListingI...
Down 13.91%
So piss off with your lies and bullshit.
Hope and change is for Muppets, real men are lining up wood for winter and seedlings for the garden.
Robert you look like a packie bastard as we like to call you Pakistani's! But with a name like Robert, this must be your alias name when someone calls Customer service at the company you work at and you pretend you are American when you answer the phone! "Helo my name iz Robert and I live in Nee Yark sity, how may I helpp you ser?". Go take your pathetic drivel and post it where someone might give a fuck!
Robert, did you publish circa 2005-06 anything on the outlook for housing?
http://articles.marketwatch.com/2006-11-16/finance/30746793_1_housing-ma...
"The data tell us that the worst of housing is behind us," said Robert Brusca, chief economist for FAO Economics
and to be balanced Dr. B did call the top back in 2005
http://www.industryweek.com/articles/u-s-_housing_starts_up_in_may_10417...
"Housing is topping," Brusca said.
wish I had a dime for everyone who missed the coming recession.
Bob, you're clearly in denial. I recommend moving on to the next phase: Anger. Followed by bargaining, depression and acceptance. Don't fight it, Bob, it's simply how things are now in the Banana Republic of Amerika. Real estate is dead, Bob. Dead. It's time to move on. Be strong, Bob. You can do it.
I own real estate. It's above water. I love it.
My father sold it
My brother in law appraised it.
His dad built houses.
Its a great country.
Never give up
Real estate forever!
There's nothing in today's Case-Shiller data to support the notion of a nationwide price recovery. 3 cities out of the 20 had price increases: Phoenix, Miami and DC. The former two are down more than 50% off the top, so those are probably bottom-feeders. I suspect DC is because of Uncle Sugar handing out sweetness.
My own take is, ever since the 50s when it was first measured, home prices to median family income have averaged around 2.5x. It wouldn't be unreasonable to expect them to overshoot down to 2.x. I would expect a bottom maybe 35% from where we sit right now.
second derivative
"Housing is improving! Housing is improving! Housing is improving!"
Well actually, no it isn't Mr. Clown-Acid Eater-Fed Lackey-Cheerleading-Disinformationist:
So if prices are falling, the housing market cannot (and should not*) be said to be improving. Seperately, if you are disappointed people don't spend more of their time and effort responding to your articles with more than curt and derisive comments, despite your own aggresive and insulting manner, may I suggest editing your user profile? Good luck to you in your future endeavors. *"Should not", unless it fits your agenda.sorry don't get it
Housing starts are up.
Maybe those with money in the stock market are feeling richer?
Sigh.........no comment necessary among the knowledgeable ZH readers.
His best line "And, YES falling prices are 'good news' if they are falling by less and not falling by much."
Don't let the facts get in the way of your DELUSION!
Like telling the guy with six bullet holes lying on the ground - "Hey, Good News, at least the blood's not squirting anymore, it's just a trickle!"
Let's see if you bought a house a year ago, at those "bargin prices" with a 20% down payment.
YOU JUST LOST 50% OF YOUR EQUITY! But. hey, Great News, the other half is dissapearing slower!
Wait until after the election, they are Jones-ing for an elimination of the mortgage deduction in DC - that'll help!
Oh, we can always count on those college grads, with $150,000 in student loans to save the home RE market.
no prices are down 3.8% Yr.yr. You lost 19% of it.
bad math
But that was ten and this is now. my argument is about now, not about 12-months ago. The improvement of the second derivative suggest that the price declines will be ending soon. Existing home prices (Feb) already are up yr/yr.
Stay away from the drugs Bob,way too strong for you.
Ps...Good housing joke.
I suppose looking at housing from a foot under the sand as in 'having one's head in the sand' might make it look like things are better....
But Brusca, your tune has changed from the bottom is in to things might be getting better here and there....
and no, prices aren't down y/y in January as one should expect, that is an ignorant comment...
more likely than not, weather diifferences (which are very local) are making the y/y changes in some cities appear wrose or better than trend, but the key is that the trend is still down for prices...
at some point, second derivative stats just don't matter that much...
as in, you're killing me, but if you do it a little slower it might not hurt as much...
actually fast would hurt less.
lol bidding wars on houses hahaha
When a 14 year old girl can go in halfsies with her Mom to buy a house in Florida originally valued at $100K for $12K, any thought that real estate is on the way up is just looney.
14 Year Old Girl buys a House - Ellen Degeneres Show
http://ellen.warnerbros.com/videos/index.php?mediaKey=0_35eafcd9
...Shiller says the shift toward renting and city living could mean “that we will never in our lifetime see a rebound in these prices in the suburbs.” A perpetually sluggish housing market, which Shiller believes has become “more and more political,” might push the country in a “Japan-like slump that will go on for years and years.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/shiller-real-chance-of-japan-like-housing...
Cheers.
yes I know Robert is pretty bleak - it's been working for him, too.
Japan-like slump. Are we going to get a 40% devaluation, too?
And Schiller didn't mention the fact that the Pacific Northwest is the introduction point for all the Fukushima radiation coming into the US. That'll be really good for housing prices, when the young buyers find out what the local Infant Mortality rates are, and how they're skyrocketing. Or how the Pediatric Oncology rates are bankrupting the local medical support structure.
Japan is dying a horrible nuclear death, and the NA West Coast is next. Try and sell a house in six months. Good luck.
I agree 100% with the Shiller assumption. There is only one asset to hold right now....Well, 2....
It's all Hogwash! I'm a contractor in CT, The housing market is enemic at best.
I guess I'd say move to Seattle?
So what do the banks do with the 10s of millions of underwater (and potential foreclosure) homes that are not located in the specific "pockets" around the country. And with 50% of the country on some sort of entitlement and with at least 50% of the remainder in low level service jobs that could never meet mortgage qualifications, who the fuck is left to buy? Or is the 1.0% going to buy 1000 at a time?
Yes.
And they will use phony credit bids.
With a walk up windows rate of nothing percent.
Same exact pecker-head psychos who blew up the bubble in the first place.
I don't think most of the commenters are going with full-on abject pessimism, more like realism. Even if Seattle's market has recovered to the $1000/sq ft level, housing still isn't portable, so Florida, Vegas, et al, are still going to be in the doldrums for a while. Sure, Seattle and the few other bright spots might pull up the average, but anyone looking at the spread between the selling prices on comparable properties in different parts of the country will realize that it's bright spots on a pretty dull background. Now, if you can invent a transporter to move houses and the property they're on, and figure out how to wedge them into existing neighborhoods, or construct new subdivisions, you might be right to break out the champagne.
Hey, my first comment! How'd I do?
Very good. That is one of the points I made: regional disparities.
Actually read the Bloomberg article it is good and it is not just one-sided. That is the point. Everyone is only one thing: negative and that does not fit.
What is up with all the NAR tard posts/articles as of late?!?!?!? Hey NAR-tards, housing is NEVER, EVER, EVER coming back in our life time... time to get a REAL job, instead of your predatory quackery.
Who the fuck is this ass-clown?
Dude, here's a DYLAN song for YOU: "You've got a lotta nerve, posting crap like this on ZH. You're a dumbass, just come right out and scream it."
Now go have a brimmin' bowl of Green Shoots. They're GRRRRRRRREAT!
I sold my house recently in the Seattle area. Brusca you are clueless! There are for sale signs everywhere. Our neighbors have been trying to sell their house for a year. Now the new thing, folks have given up on selling, Houses for Rent signs popping up everywhere.
Here is the new trick smart buyers are using (you know the ones with large cash deposits, good credit and jobs - who can get a mortgage), they put in an offer at close to asking price (ours was listed a little under recent sales to move it quick), then have the most anal home inspector (they pay for not a RE agent) go through the house with a fine tooth comb.
They came back with a 50 page inspection report asking for $75,000 in repairs. You know like all new Cedar siding, new roof, replace all the almost new appliances (top of the the line of course), upgrade everything to current code, etc...
Our house was 18 years old and in great condition, but you know how it is, you can find problems with any house, even brand new ones.
If you balk they wait until all the time has expired on their sign offs, and let it expire. During this 4-5 week dance, your home is shown as "sale pending", no one wants to bid on a house with it pending (unless it's 2006). Now you have to disclose everything in the report, in fact, our Realtor said we should just give prospective buyers a copy of the report (which you have buy from the inspector!).
We countered, offering to fix about $25,000 worth of stuff, they said no.
They know, they've made it harder for you to sell. A month later they returned, asking for $50,000 in repairs. We finally agreed. As we had no other offers.
This $50,000 amounted to a 10% drop in our sale price - this whole debacle is a nightmare, all the showings, staging, prepping - I never want to sell a house again.
Do these "fixes" and"repairs" get picked up by Case-Schiller? I don't think so.
How about NAR? doubt it. We are looking at a new home - the builder will throw in $75,000 in upgrades, landscaping, change orders at no charge. Does that get pickup in NEW HOME PRICES? No
What I'm saying is these numbers are skewed upward. Let's look at the real prices changing hands.
Dude, reduction in the negative rate of change, means nothing! Did you buy the market in May 2008?
Here's a cute picture for you from a Mar 5th Seattle PI article. They were saying how great it was that prices only fell 10.1% YoY. OH BOY!!
I count 7 for sale signs on one corner.
http://www.seattlepi.com/realestate/article/House-prices-rose-in-Seattle...
Wow! Thanks, Let me also add that the one new thing I am seeing in Seattle are signs that literally say : "BRING OFFER". There must be good business in printing those signs.
You may not be out of the woods yet. Wait until the appraisal comes in at less than the offer. I would ask whether the seller should make the "repairs" or just discount the price.
Nothing like paying for repairs and then having the buyer walk.
Also some advice a broker gave me once, never give the buyer financing, if they are paying you they have one more leverage when they sue you for the "crooked" roof line.
Let's expand to all of King County (in which Seattle is located) rather than cherry pick statistics and use lots of anecdotal stories.
Median listed price for active listings of single family residences is flat from 2011 to 2012 year to date (actually declined a miniscule %.) Average asking price is up about 1%. Time on market for active listings increased from 119-127 days.
For closed sales, both median and average prices are down from 2011 YTD to 2012 YTD. However, the time on market for closed sales did drop by 5%, and there were 15% more closed sales YTD. So yes, there are more closed sales, but they are at about 10% median and average lower prices.
This is an apples to apples comparison with no flowery stories or opinions. Not that opinions or forecasts don't have their place, but when random anecdotes and cherry picked statistics are used to suggest/extrapolate a trend that clearly is not supported by fundamentals, I think it's appropriate to challenge the author. If we get into macro concepts like real employment, currency devaluation, artificially low interest rates, etc, and start discussing numbers of underwater mortgages and shadow inventory, then it sure isn't going to make the author's point stronger.
Thanks for that post, YouAreBliss. I've been looking at the housing market in the area and been completely blown away by the vast number of "Pending" home sales on houses that languish on the market for years. I'd assumed it was banks fiddling with short sales, but your description makes more sense.
Don't you understand "you are bliss", you and I (with 40 yrs experience) are just " subculture of muddled miscreants" ....Real bright comeback. You try to have an intelligent conversation and you always get these retards who haven't a clue about anything.
Bob, why do you give a rat's ass what a subculture of muddled miscreants cares about your work. Paraphrasing, you cannot train a vat of famished piranhas table manners.
As the late Al Davis once proclaimed, “Just write baby!”
BOB what a dumb post. With OIL going to umpteen 100's of dollars, inflation rising, massive new laws on the horizons, huge tax increases coming, to support the incredible massive debts owing, gigantic population ready to retire, no pensions for anyone..you honestly believe that this little blip in housing is SUSTAINABLE? This is a small sucker punch for the race to the bottom.
Oil is a bit over$100/bbl
umpteen?
Isn't it illegal to to do that to a teen?
Ok, I will bite: the Seattle C-S index is at 130.03, the lowest since April 2002. Peak value was around 192 during the summer 2007.
It fell 5.38 points over the last 12 months, compared to 9.68 the previous 12 months, so yes, the decline is getting less steep (at least for Seattle).
Now the question I have, what the hell is the significance of this? There are even areas like Denver or Phoenix, where prices increased over the last 12 months. So what? The overall C-S index stands at 135.46, the lowest since December 2002. The decline over the last 12 months was 5.32 points compared to 4.53 the previous 12 months. Oops, about that rate of decline......
Don't let facts get in the way of a good story though.
Snoopy
it is not about how much prices are falling but if people see value at current levels and if they have the resource to buy.
Revival is revival. I didn't see why so many people find the store funny or whatever their reaction is.
it IS.
It is not an opinion or a forecast it is reality.
A reality a lot of people are just rejecting.
I live in Seattle (Greenwood) and I have been keeping an eye on houses in my neighborhood and on zillow. I can't say I personally see any bounce besides noise. Housing will never bounce like a stock market w/ short interest. Boeing is doing well and Washington state is semi tax friendly so we are not California, so that helps. Until the real economy actually recovers and wages rise, there will be NO bottom to housing. I personally expect another 10 years of sideways to down or worse. There are those hyper-inflation people who think housing will rise due to high inflation, I say "maybe so" "maybe", but w/ high rates of inflation comes high oil and food prices which will kill the economy and NOT help housing OR anything else. There is no magic bullet for this.
Mr. Been There
beautiful area. My daughter loves to run around Green lake.
be wary of Zillow. It's out there it often has things wrong. Transaction prices/dates are irregular. It is very unreliable. I was watching zillow in Michigan where I have relatives and what zillow said about houses and home prices was wacky. If you want sport check out listings in the paper of something with a clear time stamp on it. At least they will be real prices but you figure prices being cut, you just don;t know by how much.
An additional wrinkle generated by the "we'll inflate our way out!" optimism shared by the Fed apologists:
When food, energy, transportation, and all other costs rise due to inflation in commodities, but wages stay flat, what will happen to existing asset prices (ie: houses)? Will people adjust their spending (ie: curtail iPad spending, spend less on housing in relation to food, etc)? With ZIRP enforced through 2014, will anyone be able to accumulate enough capital to put up a down payment for a home?
Keep in mind, too, that home prices are driven by what mortgagees can afford to pay each month. The INSTANT that rates start to climb (and with 10-year money at ALL-TIME LOWS and the Fed owning 90% of the long end of the curve, they can go nowhere but up), home prices will drop even further.
These are the sorts of fundamental questions that Brusca fails to address in simply citing Case-Schiller's "less steep slope".
You are correct sir. Even with hyperinflation, home values will not appreciably appreciate. No money for food, no money for utilities, no money to maintain or attain a house.
"The bidding is probably best in Seattle if the home for sale has an anti-war sign on the front lawn if I know Seattle (and I do)." I blew you off right there! The only anti-war movement is the Ron Paul movement. The Seattle dumocrats have been led to beleieve the Afghan and Iraq Wars have morphed into "transitory" occupations for "Humanitarian" reasons.
Don't go trying to one up the propaganda machine with the Dummocrats man, just let them alone, they alread had their souls sucked out and burned by Obama, the "community organizer" from Indonesia.
Dumbocrats? Not that Repubs are any better...