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Housing market is off to the races-in Seattle anyway
Bidding Wars Erupt as U.S. Supply of Homes for Sale Falls
This is a REAL story title on Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-27/bidding-wars-erupt-as-u-s-suppl...
This link is for that story and is especially for my new best friend (who would stab me in the back in an instant) 'Clowns on Acid'. Mr Clown thinks housing will never recover and he chides me about it on every post I make even when I don't write about housing so Mr Clown this is for you and you mega-intellect. By the way why not put something out there beside a snide comment?
I guess it is my personal mission in life (yes, Mr Phelps, so long as I choose to accept...and I realize that everyone will disavow any knowledge of my role in this tawdry mission) to see that Bozo-bell does not run afoul of the latest in housing trends.
He is so prone to believing that last years new's was brought down from the mount carved on stone tablets by Moses and appears incapable of dealing with change. Ah pessimists repent!
Housing is rising from the dead, rolling back the great stone and revealing its true healthier self to you AND IT ISN'T EVEN EASTER YET!
Just in Case-Shiller
The Case-Shiller home price index posted another house price drop, as we expected it to this time of year (-3.8% in January 2012 compared to -4.1% in December 2011). This series is not seasonally adjusted. But the yr/yr decline was cut again. This is another house price series where the second derivative is improving, Mr Clownster. And, YES falling prices are 'good news' if they are falling by less and not falling by much. And such is the case here (the Sase-Shiller in fact).
The link to the Bloomberg story (should you choose to follow- your mission impossible) tells of housing scarcity in Seattle and bidding wars on homes put up for sale.
The bidding is probably best in Seattle if the home for sale has an anti-war sign on the front lawn if I know Seattle (and I do).
The point is not NOT NOT that the whole housing market has turned on a dime so fast that the Earth's crust is going to shift over its hot mantle and make the North and South poles reverse AIII CARUMBA!!! But that there are pockets of real improvement in this economy, in this housing market at this time.
The MACRO data may not be the best way to track housing since all housing, even more than politics, is local. There are still tons of problems but not everyone has a credit dilemma, or an underwater mortgage. Still I DO NOT -DO NOT- look for a surge in mortgage applications.
I hear that some people think that if the economy strengthens and rates start to rise there will be a SURGE in mortgage activity.
WEll, HEAR THIS: THOSE DAYS ARE OVER.
Banks still want a credit rating that is so high that there will not be eligible borrowers enough to crowd the doors of this theater even if you call out 'fire!' at the top of your lungs.
So be content with various pockets in the housing market improving. Las Vegas and Florida are staying under a heavy burden of oversupply and foreclosure. With trouble in the Midwest because of a hollowed out industrial sector, we still have a country that can have pockets of recovery and enough of it to bring the market as a whole into recovery, save those regions so afflicted that recovery will wait for more structural changes to take root... or demolition (Detroit?).
Play the song, "The times they are a structurally a changin'"
So there it is, another comment on housing. and, dang if it isn't positive.
And now I look for a You-Know-What-storm of negative commentaries by people who continue to drive their cars by looking though the rear view mirror and whose favorite words encompass four-letters.
Sorry boys and girls,
facts is facts.
Now it's time for Mr Clowns on Acid and his three ring circus of naysayers
here's...clowny!
Look for the commentary but don't expect much insight. It would be good to hear any positive stories people could chuck in between the snarkiness.
Best,
Bob
»
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It's Dylan. He is a songwriter that became famous in the 60's. But I am only assuming that you are referring to him as the rest of what you say is meaningless. (Juia, John Lennon, famous grouchomarxist)
!
"prices are 'good news' if they are falling by less" Basic physics. Of course the slope will level off, EVENTUALLY. It's impossible for a steep drop to continue forever. That does in no way mean we are at a bottom OR going back up. The latter being very important. I've been in the building/real estate business all my life. Every time guys like Cramer call a bottom ( 5 times and counting ?) I yell at the tv and say no way. Sorry, but no way. The economy sucks and real estate will drop lower again and again until the pain is unbearable....You want to buy now for a home, fine. If it's inverstment oriented, big mistake.
we can agree that the economy holds the key
"prices are 'good news' if they are falling by less" Basic physics. Of course the slope will level off, EVENTUALLY. It's impossible for a steep drop to continue forever. That does in no way mean we are at a bottom OR going back up. The latter being very important. I've been in the building/real estate business all my life. Every time guys like Cramer call a bottom ( 5 times and counting ?) I yell at the tv and say no way. Sorry, but no way. The economy sucks and real estate will drop lower again and again until the pain is unbearable....You want to buy now for a home, fine. If it's inverstment oriented, big mistake.
your middle name wouldn't be ilene by chance?
It's really sad to see the quality of the guest posters on Zero Hedge.
What the fuck happened here? Even Leo was better than this.
This used to be one of the best sites around, now it's descending into a wasteland!
"Even Leo was better than this."
Bwhahahahahahahaha!
That's it, Brusca - your credibility here is now officially toast.
great toast of the town. Just read the Bloomberg story, before you trash it.
"BUY NOW--OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!"
Wasn't that how the line went?
And, there is the start of [hyper] inflation.
they're not making any more beachfront, once it's gone.
there's only one penthouse and once it's gone
There's only one roll of toliet paper and once it's gone...
Robert, What you do not address, is that the market is artificially high due to the banks sitting on the foreclosed homes rather than listing them. who knows whether they will bleed them out slowly or for whatever reason engage in a supply dump. It's still risky to buy.
what you seem to assume is that the banks will be stupid and foul their own nest.
B
What you seem to assume is that the banks can maintain the cashflow to carry trillions of dollars of assets, maintain them, and pay property taxes for them forever. If an "asset" is costing you 2-3% per year in maintenance and taxes, how long do you let it drizzle red on your ledger?
Never underestimate the potential for TarpII
Now that is cynical - and full of denial! Who is going to pay for that expansion of debt, again? They barely got that monster passed - and over the objection of thousands of voters. Launched a Tea Party (that's working out well...eh <snark>).
TARP II!! Only when the whole thing is looking to fall down.
Then, Maybe... we'll have a real Obamanation.
There. I said it. Obamanation. Someone had to say it. (I am sure the term was blacklisted at the start of the administration. Even the Tea Partiers won't use it. Interesting to see if it starts up now.)
Its not an assumption look at the recent track record with sales of homes. They fouled that maket with subprime and lier loans.
I cant see them sitting on homes till the termites move in or some other vermin so they need to move them. Actually the first to market will probably do the best on price as it will take time for prices to fall further unless all the homes hit the market at the same time.
Prices don't have to fall. Inflation will have the same effect.
no, they would never do THAT!!!!
unless of course there were some reason that fouling their own nest might be EXTREMELY PROFITABLE.
is this post 'humor'?
Pre-humor or semi-humor, but it will not be post-humor until we get past the funny part.
More like terminal humor. The snake oil writer is attempting to sell the Alpha & Omega scam on ther readers. The last ponzi scheme you will ever need to end up broke. Let's see other similar words:
final
That's all folks!
kaput
finished
owari
So what you are saying is that you feel better about your cancer because you have been cured of your dandruff problem. Just remember my friend that unless there are many more jobs at good rates of pay, nothing else will be able to reverse this economic mess in a meaningful manner.
of course. Nothing is a done deal. Housing is not mended over night it's a question of the path has recovery begun or not?
The analysis still requires a forecast, but isn't that better than denial? Constant denial...
Robert,
You failed to lay your arguments. What is the story? What are arguments: pro and against? What are the statistical facts supporting both? I found your article incoherent. I am not even sure what point you tried to make.
What is the distiction between the local markets and the national market? One local market has improved and it is enought to proclaim yet another bottom? Has Seattle really improved? What is the data supporting it?
One data point does not make it a trend. The chart looks different in short term than in long term.
The last time I checked the Case-Shiller HPI it keeps going down, month after month. What is the economic data supporting the bottom or the negative outlook? I can see Europe down, China slowing, USA barely growing on food stamps. Why all of sudden bottom? Who is going to buy all these houses? There are 10 mm houses in the shadow inventory - although the estimates vary. I personally go for the 10 mm. The Corelogic's 1.6 mm estimate of the shadow inventory is so flawed I don't even know where to start arguing about it.
Robert - next time more intelligent arguments, please. I am not saying you are wrong, because I missed your point entirely.
Where is the beef?
The anecdote is a bidding war in Seattle. But its a really powerful anecdote. Bidding wars in weak markets are very rare. The fact is that there is a reduced %Yr/yr drop in house price.
a supplemental fact is the RISE in existing home prices Yr/yr as of Feb.
The fact is improvement in housing sector activity - actual data.
The fact is the improvement in job growth and lower unemployment even last month when the labor force expanded.
There are a lot of facts.
I understand that for this to be a real housing recovery the economy must continue to hit its stride. I do not re-iterate every single pro-economy fact in every single article.
For this post Seattle is smoke an Case-Shiller is another tid bit with inferential good news.
The second derivative matters.
It's too subtle for some people but it is a fact. The trend is turning up in terms of the rate of change; that characteristic it is present in other house-price series as well.
The point is, too, that housing is fragmented different local markets will do different things. Some may not ever recover (Detroit) until they are bulldozed. So do not discard various bits of local good news nor think because your locality is depressed so is the whole country.
the most powerful signal is not how things are but how they are changing. (second derivative)
It is going to be complicated to sort out recovery when it comes. Economic turning points do not come with neon lights but this one will be even harder to see.
Constant reality, constant reality, fixed it for ya Bob, no charge..
Brusca, we are asking why you deny reality. One day, one week, one month does not make a trend. Nor does this address big picture issues. Overcompensation on numbers means you're actually living with the denial syndrome.
if you look at % Yr/Yr in house prices of any sort there is a trend.
if you look at the change in the slope of that price line, is there is a very clear trend.
It's
Not
About
One
Number
who is in denial?
Try to take a look at the world in its ensemble, without picking numbers. And look at what happens, not what you think you know to be happening. I see slavery, pollution, corruption, resource waste, wars, mistrust, demagogy, eugenism, disinformation/propaganda, etc. (this list isn't exhaustive, it's just a quick review based on my observation)
THIS IS A FUCKING CLEAR TREND, AND IT'S NOT BULLISH!
About the Yr/Yr trend, my pick is that you can say anything you want when cherrypicking time periods. Try 2007-today (5Yr) trend, does it speak to you?
GONG.
cat got your tongue?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Gong_Show
yes I know the show. But nothing to say just 'Gong?'
What about the facts on the ground Gong to them?
I just don't get it- abject pessimism.
Robert. People have been rendered cynical by what they see happening within government and the banks. They are furious at the lack of prosecution for fraud and the continuous shift away from real issues to stupid pet tricks.
They feel they've been suckered and are not going to be suckered again.
Until the issues that left them cynical are addressed I would not expect a turn in attitude. What's more - they see the same old obfuscation today as they have all this last decade. It will take more than a tick on a chart or one city in a nation with improving real estate turn-over to change the attitudes of this generation.
It will take leadership.Honest.Leadership. And, they will know it when they see it. MSM, PR, will do nothing.
yes our politicians (all parties) are pigs. But that is not reason to ignore what the economy is doing. I cant make any simple statement about real economic trends without people in total denial.
I understand why Bernanke bailed out bankers. I understand why people hate it. I DO NOT understand why no one is going after the all the rule violators.
I too am frustrated.
But it is not grounds for all this denial. WE are the people that have to pick ourselves up and start all over again. Denial will not help us.
Here is an example, from an expert, of why people are furious.
Janet T
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=203938
I suppose it is a visceral reaction: a tit for a tat so to speak.
A "we're not playing" until "you make fair". Restitution or, at least, justice is required.
We The People may individually be doing a lot to further our own personal situations. But when we look at the larger picture the numbers seem "cooked". Some of them undoubted are. The hedonic adjustments governing the CPI are absurd. I am not trading down to pink slime, no matter what prices do - whether because of scarcity or inflation.
We The People are sick at heart from the gamemanship. We want to see things put right. Giving in to what TPTB want - WTP blithely spending - like there was never anything to see here move along - makes us complicit in our own usury. Don't you understand that Catch-22???
In a way, Robert, the cynicsm you label denial is healthy. It represents the People becoming unwilling to be pushed around. It is the start of a demand. That demand is for a return to a state of law. Of real investigation and real punishment for criminal activity.
If you are expecting to turn this around to a celebration of recovery - without the requisite justice - it is you who are in denial. Not going to happen.
That said, nothing would be finer than to return to days of yore - when the cool September air and warm late summer sun promised a gentle autumn...Remember? And then it all changed. Up until then we were content to see the economic miracle and leave the reasons unquestioned. Goldilocks was so much fun... Since then it has been unravelling faster and faster.
People sense it. Don't you?
Not sure what kind of validation you're looking for to confirm your delusion but I'm sure you'll find it here in the comments in due time.
What you're watching is Flip This House, Season 2. Here in my part of California, it's no different. Houses are being bought---after months and months of being on the market and several price reductions later. The houses have newly acquired suckers which spend a little here and there on fixing up the interior/exterior and weeks later, another sign is posted out front: FOR SALE OR LEASE. Now these 'flippers' sit with the house while paying for the upkeep trying to find another sucker to read something like this and proclaim: "THIS IS THE BOTTOM, WHAT A DEAL!"
Falling home prices are not a good thing in communities which are seeing comps come in hundreds of thousands of dollars less than what buyers in recent years paid. Yes, falling home prices are good for first time buyers but in this economy (which I'm sure you see as entering recovery mode v.4.1) very few people aged 25-31 can afford a home not to mention the taxes and energy costs associated with ownership.
There's a smart guy buy the name of John Williams, you should compare your data with his and see if they match up.
which John Williams?
I think he meant John "Jet" Williams:
http://www.harlemglobetrotters.com/player/jet
Thanks.
I'd like the Jet a lot more. No doubt about it.
Shadow Stats
Yes a specialist in fear mongering.
Every economist knows there are flaws and biases in various government reports. We try to understand and deal with them and then a few -just a few - try to make a business by blowing these things out of proportion and distorting the flaws.
I can see that. In Jan 2011 he talked of housing bouncing along the bottom as evidence of a coming double dip recession. Maybe he still believes it.
I do not.
I do not go for his hyperinflation watch (PCE is at 2.4% core at 2.1%) and at he same time he is warning of a double dip recession? That is one heck of a crisis coming.
But I guess you have to pander to all fears.
So now I see. If that is what you like and think is good analysis you are not going to like my reports. That's OK. To each his own.
Bob
And you seem to be a specialist in obfuscation and cherry-picking the facts.
Shadow Stats main statement is we have ~10% annual inflation (or currency devaluation if you prefer) currently, and had for years.
If you were halfway up to speed, you could take that and turn it into an argument for buying your beloved real estate (I actually agree IF you can pay cash or have a totally safe income source for paying the mortgage, and IF you plan to live in it for 10+ years, and you don't see it as an investment) - but you're not.
There are no flaws in government reports. There is outright in your face brazen fraud.
Hyperinflation may be good for housing, so if you don't go for that, you have more headwinds to go against.
thanks
WTF?
My sentiments exactly. See Bob, home prices aren't doing as badly in Minneapolis, either--at least compared to say, Stockton or Fresno.
But in case you haven't noticed, the U.S. has more cities than just Seattle and/or Minneapolis (like dozens, dude! maybe hundreds!). And as Case-Shiller reveals, housing prices are still crumbling away in the vast majority of them.
So you found one story about one town that says The Housing Crash is Over. Why not point out that housing in NYC and D.C. isn't still in freefall? You've proved nothing, except that you're a guy who can't admit he's wrong.
Oh, yeah, and a guy who can't spell "Dylan". Unless you meant Marshall Dillon.