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On The Ascendance of Arabian Economic Influence, Contrarian View Of Apple & The Smart Move For Small Businesses
My latest appearance on RT's Capital Account last night brought about many topics that are making headlines today. Reference the video at the 3:20 and 16:05 markers.
Arab influence and the worsening EU situation
Yesterday, I made announced that Abu Dhabi & the UAE Can Leverage PetroDollar profits to capitalize on the plight of EU nations. This is becoming more and more true day day as these quasi-"sovereign" nations become increasingly forced to part with strategic and financial assets to pare debt. I explictly stated that Greece would have to either default or restructure again, possibly immediately after the default/restructuring that took place week before last, rendering the entire exercise moot nad relative useless (it did kick the can down the road for a few quarters). See Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators Fall Like Icarus From the Sky in Flames, then realize that after reading the BoomBustBlog piece we have the ever reliable ratings agencies following suit - reference this piece from Bloomberg: Greece May Have to Restructure Again, S&P’s Kraemer Says.
Of course, we all know how reliable and timely the rating agencies are, right? See Rating Agencies vs Reggie Middleton, Part 3 and the Interesting Documentary on the Power of Rating Agencies, with Reggie Middleton Excerpts
I am having my analysts work on the Spanish and Italian default/ bailout scenario now (we have worked up a scenario two years ago, but things are much worse now). Even a Citi analyst has chimed in to that effect. Let' not forget the Portuguese Liquidity Trap: Prime from the actions of Greece. As a matter of fact, it's evident that Greece Is Trying To Convince Portugal To Make FIRE Hot, hence I answered the inevitable question, So, What's The Next Step Towards The Eurocalypse???
The continued Apple lovefest conceals key facts
The MSM is still engorged on its lovefest with Apple, comparing the latest iPad 3 to the Transformer Prime (my current workhorse tablet) favorably, despite the fact that the Transformer runs circles around it in almost every category. Notice the comments from those who have actually used the Transformer, which was consistently sold out for a reason. The fact is, at least from my own research and personal observation, Apple's iPad Is Losing Market Share As Margins Compress (Click this link for the research behind this assertion):
Again, as with the smartphones, the Android tablet tech is superior to that of iOS products and as iOS normalizes the difference, margins will suffer. Margins will drop (is dropping) faster for tablets because prices are coming down as fast as tech is increasing.
Apple's Decision To Return Capital to shareholders is an indication that it feels the capital is put to better use in the shareholder's hands than that of management using it to actively grow. Granted, the amount is de minimus in the grand scheme of things, but the move marks a transition away from Steve Jobs' mantra immediately after his departure.
Now, we have other analysts jumping in the BoomBustBlog bandwagon, after the fact of course...
Apple Inc. (Nasdaq: AAPL) is weak this morning and according to some this could be related to a negative research note at Wedge Partners.
According to tweets from Notable Calls, the analyst said:
"Taking the Sidelines Until March Qtr Report on Possible iPad Slide"
"We're concerned iPad sales may not be as strng as expectations, and we believe March cld disappoint."
"Full year production iPad expectations/forecasts may be pulled down as a result."
"Looking at overall demand picture, there doesn't appear to be much of a frenzy for the new iPad."
"The stock may be priced for perfection at current levels, but we feel we are seeing some scratches on the glass"
Our Apple analysis is now available to subscribers Apple Margin & Valuation Note (those who wish to subscribe should click here). This is a more comprehensive, more "scientific" update and approach to our piece from last year Apple - Competition and Cost Structure and contains extensive valuation scenarios considering several what if scenarios for Apple, including the likely events that I've been warning of for some time now. Next week (this was pushed back two weeks due to my middle east excursion), pro subscribers will see a downloadable version of the model behind this that will deliver more Apple stuff than you can ever digest in one sitting.
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Apple is a tough call. The analysis and metrics can be spot on, but the market for the stock can remain irrational for quite some time. It is telling that Apple has decided on a dividend, not quite confident in its growth prospects. I'll stay on the sidelines w/ this one.
Which leads me to tablets. I have one. It is basically my bedside clock now and maybe a read when I'm on the toilet. and oh yeah, its good to pull up lyrics for drunken home karaoake parties. It's obvious this must be in addition to a computer/laptop for most people. An internet consumption device more or less.
But I have found its much much faster, easier navigating the net w/ a laptop and traditional touchpad, since the touchpad represents the entire screen, which makes for more efficient movement of the cursor/pointer/mouse.
When it comes to typing? Hands down, physical keyboard rules. I hate hate hate the onscreen keyboards of a tablet. So I bought a bluetooth keyboard for my tablet. Now I have to lug two items around and somehow position the tablet in a stable position, and then position the keyboard in a separate stable position. I just dont get the actual appeal of this device beyond an additional device to do light reading/surfing when you are on the go.
The tablet w/ the attachable keyboard at least makes a bit of sense, BUT, w/ the new ultra books coming out that are full function, thin/light, some may be flip screen tablet convertibles, yet fully functioning laptops for not much more money, it is a no brainer.
I too complained of the keyboard on the hand-me down Ipad 1 compared to laptop, by now the Ipad rarely leaves my side and the laptop is at my parents until the replace their broken desktop.
It all depends on what you are using the computer for...if you have to do work with a lot of software applications design for use on traditional computer or have to do a ton of writing, an Ultra laptop is probably the way to go for now.....however, if you are like most consumers and a lot of workers, and you use your computer mainly for media consumption, emailing, game palyer, web-surfer, specialty app using, reading, movie/tv show watching etc...the tablet is great. What you lose from not having the hinged keyboard, you gain in lightness, not-hot, portabilty.
I have notice a lot of small businesses have Ipods or Iphones just simply to run one app, like scanning a groupon/coupon, also a lot of sophisticated businesses like Ecolab selling sanitizations products to hospitals have an Ipod dedicated to collect info and sending to Ecolab...this has only begun, if the small retail shoestring businesses are willing to buy Ipods to one task, tablets will become huge business too, they are only a few hundred more dollars and via specialty apps could do all sorts of things, are easily exchange/used among several employees
Laptops and destops will always have their place but tablets and their OS's and their app community is going to very methodically eat away much of that market.
New technology takes awhile to go mainstream even when it makes sense to have done it yesterday. I was looking through some old construction project plans at my work from 2000, I was looking in big customer files on our network and shocked to see how few project plans we had in their file, I knew we had done much more business with them, and then I realized, almost all the plans we got from them were paper, had-copy, big sheets on plans, not electronic docs in our computer files. All that technology, email, pdf, plans created on CAD systems were already long exisited in 2000, but still, people had not made the shift to producing everything only electronically. I suspect same will happen with tablets and their apps, they will be everywhere in good time.
Care to post a P/L on your returns the last couple years...you were sure quick to point them out in 2008, been crickets lately.
the key issue : as first world oligarchy collapses at home under weight of its debt; it needs a new home to shore up its ill gotten gains, a real home where Oligarchs are kings, not shadow kingdoms of Caymans type, in a place where a dictator can take over your banks and its fortunes overnight, like it happened in Batista's Cuba; Oligarch's communista nightmare! And what is better than an Arab kingdom where all the real black gold lies...home away from home amongst those who hate the secular creed of the founding fathers, as they ARE wahhabites. Like the Ayatollahs and the Zionists, they are in another feudal world. What does a US oligarch have in common with these people; apart from money...its a truly mad world.
So you're peddling someone elses garbage "Apple is priced to perfection" now. You even puff up a negative slant/angle on Apple handing back some of their cash mountain (fuck aren't you desperate for microscopic dirt to rake?)
So you gonna short Apple Mr Pricing Perfection?
Apple juggernaut v Apple haters = Roadkill
12 months of being flattened and this turkey still won't shut up
Quality is slipping: There is a lot of neat design and branding, but visibly no longer so much software engineering involved in an Apple product.
My brand new MacBook air comes straght out of the box with several applications mysteriously crashing on the 2'nd print command and an especially nasty ICal bug where ICal will accept a corrupt Outlook event (usually an attachment) and Brick itself so no new events can be created until the corrupt event is hunted down and found (on the server, local or on the IPhone).
The Apple forums are alive with 'ICal 400 and 403' messages. But - None from Apple.
The overall experience is like windows, several years ago, Windows 2000 maybe, but for a lot more money! The new Windows 7 never failed this bad - even when buried in tonnes of vendor-installed crap from Dell or Compaq.
The Point, appart from trolling a bit, is that Apple is no longer unique - except on pricing, which will not last in the long run
Should one short Apple? Well, if the market existed, one might. As things are, you either lose because Golman Sachs has bought the rights to always be on the winning side or your accont is Corzined - your money spirited away and vaporised. So, why bother?
You truly seem to have a problem with this Apple fetish thing. Are you going to post 30 comments, back to back in serial fashion as if you have nothing else to do with your time like you did in the last post on Apple. If you bothered to read the actual research I put out on Apple, you would have noticed it was pretty much spot on, give a or take a few misses. But I guess facts and truth do little to factor in to your "I hate all who may comment on numbers" super pro Apple tirade.
Take a chill pill, it's a damn company for god sakes, not someone's child, nor a religion or even a philisophical movement. It really is just a C corporation.
If you want to take issue with the actual points made in the free content, then please do so that we can have a lively, constructive debate. If you have nothing better to do than to insult and hurl invective, pick another author to keep company with. And most importantly, if you don't have access to the subscriber reports, don't pretend you know what's inside of them based on what you assume may be there. You obviously don't think like the analysts/strategists that put them together, so you probably have no idea what they say or what profits or gains may have come from them.
In short, grow up!
Does fundamental analysis matter anymore? Even though it is spot on? How much fundamental analysis accounts for apple share price performance?
fundamental analysis doesn't work with any companies share price, including Apples
Reggie, If I would have listened to your drivel about Apple, I would have missed out on about $250-300 in share appreciation.
You've turned Apple into a religion Reggie, not me ..you keep bringing the topic up not me so YOU take the chill pill
i'm a natural defender of excellence and achievement, especially against gobby blokes running on empty (ie. all socialists) ...Apple haters fall into that same category so go check any other Apple thread to see I give them all the exact same treatment as you
Now let's be specific. Do i argue with your financial maths? Nope.
So why are you referring me to your mathematical research?
Where i'm hammering you is specifically on your non-stop muck raking campaign j(see above) where the only thing you can say about Apple handing out some of its cash mountain to shareholders is some snivelling little comment about "it's not what Steve would have done"
How'd you know, you put global monopolist and global software garbage Bill Gates above Steve Jobs because of "charity work" ...scraping the bottom of the barrel again Reg?
This sort of non-stop petty (pathetic) sniping sums up your moronic terades aganst Apple. Your muck-raking is for all to see, not your maths, your emotional bias
You've lost your shirt and your house shorting Apple, we can see why a loser has such a vindictive campaign continually proven wrong. Another piece of roadkill trampled under the Apple juggernaut
Your latest peddling of crap is "Apple is priced to perfection"... didn't you call that at $300 or $500 ??
So you're top calling Apple aren't you? ..wanna bet you'll once again have your top calling shoved where the sun dfon't shine (3rd time in under a year)?
You've been proven wrong, top calling Apples share price and dead wrong again trying to pump up Googles dreary performance more times than you want to remember. Don't you remember throwing your toys outta the pram the market was deluded, only Reggie knows the truth, that Googles shares are undervalued and Apples over-valued???
It's not your maths Reggie, it's the size 19 clown boots and red nose you're wearing that's providing the entertainment around here
So you don't argue with objective math, you take personal offense that he dare question your cult's motivations for finally announcing a dividend?? Who is making things personal here? Doesn't look like Reggie to me fucknut. Clean the sand out if your gaping vagina and take a fucking Midol already you sniveling wretch...
Dearest fucking retard, like Reggie you just don't 'get it' do ya
It's not "objective maths" i'm taking issue or beating-up on Reggie about, he's as misguided, senile and deaf on that subject as you are
It's the other muck-raking biased crap he dishes out twice a month on Apple
It's not Reggie being logical, rational, mathematical or professional ..it's Reggie being a muck-raking clown
Got it yet peanut brain????