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Now for some bad news: jobless claims
Jobless claims in the current week fell to 359K from 364K. But we previously thought claims were at 349k so a drop of 5K would have left them below 345K. Not now.
The problem is NOT -NOT- the week the problem is that the benchmark revision has done damage to a very favorable trend.
The benchmark revision has sucked a lot of the downtrend (a good thing for jobless claims) right out of this time series.
Claims are averaging an increasingly higher figure above the previously-reported levels. The 4wk average from last week is higher than it was in the old data by 14,000. And, the current level of claims is higher above the old level, the fresher are the observations. In other words we are losing momentum faster than we thought and we have made less progress on claims than we thought.
Continuing claims also are higher and progressively higher.Their 4wk average for two weeks ago is higher by 24,000 than it had been previously.
The news on claims is still good. Claims levels still have dropped, and sharply. The insured rate of unemployment is still at a cycle low 2.6%. But the depth of the drop in claims is less than we thought and the sense of ongoing progress is now diminished.
It's a bad news report for optimists.
We will see if its reduced momentum signals slower growth ahead than we thought or if the economy continues to make strides.
Keep an open mind.
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On a 1.5 stretch of road leading to the freeway, every corner had someone begging for food or money on it. Never saw that before ever. However the house I used to own was $330k last year, today zillow says it is worth $420k. The monetization of unpayable debts and free trade is working exactly as planned.
Congrats...except you can't sell it at that price to Zillow. Good luck
interesting table from the BLS
http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat01.htm
not seasonally adjusted, jan 2012 was 57.8 and feb was 58.0 If my eyes didn't deceive me, these are the lowest percentages ever (at least historically back to 1947).
you need a job to becpme a new jobless claim...the pool is running dry.
just look at employment to population...historic lows.
emp/Pop ratio and participation ratios are complex processes
A Closer Look At Labor Participation Rates: Part 1
http://seekingalpha.com/article/355341-a-closer-look-at-labor-participat...
A Closer Look At Labor Participation Rates: Part 2
http://seekingalpha.com/article/355461-a-closer-look-at-labor-participat...
This guy is making a fool of himself and embarrassing the entire site. End this madness already.
hey Corn1945..Shut the fuck up!...I am enjoying reading this contributor. If you don't like or not interested don't read. Next time you go off on a seasoned economist or anybody on this site. I will Bitch Slap you with Tyler's palm. R W clear?
And you are raising the level of discourse?
Speaking of Best Buy, I tried buying our big screen HDTV there a while back and the salesperson refused to sell it to me unless I also bought the extended warranty. I told him if the quality is that lousy I'd pass. Wound up buying it online....for less than the Best Buy price. No wonder they're closing 50 stores.
Robert, the emo gloomer mob here thirsts only for evidence or anecdotes that validate the most dire and disastrous economic and political outcomes. Your lame attempt at placating the zealots with a negative teaser only inflames their lust for the full monty.
You are right Carl.
Real Un Employment 16% - 19%, don't get it twisted. Average the U3 and U6.
When two of the most honest people in Congress on both sides of the isle, Bernie Sanders (Socialist) and Ron Paul (Libertarian) keep harping on this figure......this is what should be reported to the people.
The BLS number is bullshit.
My wife got a new job this month so we are doing our part to bring those jobless numbers down. Of course her new job is part-time, seasonal and pays just over minimum wage (of course no benefits). Her old job paid six figures and had strong benefits.Needless to say, her new wages will do little for the economy as the take home on a weekly basis is about enough to cover rising fuel prices. I wonder how many newly employed people in 2012 have the same story? I suspect besides the aleady fictitious calculations put out by the government there are a huge number of people who have dropped out of the statistics but are anything but gainfully employed.
I have a job in MA where we have a mandate, and I had to go to the ER to get something fixed. I have Health Insurance....and I *still* got a $1700 bill.
When your bills are going to pay down the mortgage, credit card, and to hospitals/health insurers, it is NOT going to buy McStuff.....which is what creates new jobs and businesses.
It's a Rent Economy and 99% of us are tenants.
only six states have homeownship rates belwo 65%.
we are not all renters.
http://www.danter.com/statistics/ho2010.pdf
if she took 3 part time seasonal jobs she would really be helping the economy.....guess she is lazy and not patriotic
Always consider the source of those flinging opinions (I'm not rendering my opinion on his, but I will say that Mr. Brusca is implicitly - at least - treating BLS numbers as more credible rather than less so [e.g. - not even a mention of seasonal adjustment or workforce participation issues]):
From his own blog ---
http://robertbrusca.blogspot.com/
no not really I have links above to some of the analysis I've done on labor force participation rates
Here is one link
http://seekingalpha.com/article/355461-a-closer-look-at-labor-participat...
These are issues separate from jobless claims,which I wrote about here looking at only the current number and what the revisions did to the trend and level.
NSA claims seems to be in a pattern of down 35-40K year over year. Is that good?
Man, you need to take some writing lessons....this is really poorly explained.
Best Buy closing 50 stores:
http://money.msn.com/top-stocks/post.aspx?post=65aca1b2-3f24-4ec8-8a91-5...
People may have to drive a tad further to buy their iPad and Super-BigScreen TV this year.
now where am i going to go to test drive my item before i buy it ONLINE
Based on the style of his analyses in conjunction with his writing style and voluntarily posted portrait, I think I figured out who Robert Brusca really is:
http://www.smithgifford.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/sarduccisfc.jpg
Should've stayed in the priesthood, Father Sarducci. Economics is not your thing. It doesn't help that you advertise that you worked in some capacity for the New York Branch of the Fraudulent Reserve.
Best Buy needs to go bye-bye. Worst customer service on the planet. I have three different ones within a short drive and have been to all three. Try getting someone- ANYONE who works there to help you, and if you do, who knows something about what you are looking for. Useless minimum wage asshats.
It doesn't surprise me...their service sucks and I am a former customer who decided after a really bad experience never to make a purchaseat one of their stores again. I went in to buy a DVD player and waited around for about 10 minutes for a salesperson...they were around, doing nothing but just wer not in a mood to answe questions or help. When I finally asked for help one salseman asked me what I was looking for, I told him and he said he would seeif someone was 'available' to help me. I got the distinct impression that because I was not buying a big ticket item they did not want to help me. I ended up picking up a returned DVD player and was told there was nothing wrong with it and it was under full warranty. When I picked it out I went up to the customer service desk to inquire about the warranty. There were two very long lines and 8 of the 10 people behing the counter were standing around talking. When I finally got up to the front of the line a nice gal helped me as much as she could and then told me she needed to get someone more senior to answer my questions. I waited another 10 minutes for a no show. I was just about to set the unit down on the counter and walk out when someone came up to talk to me. They answered my qustions, I bought the unit and went home. Now mind you, I don't watch DVD's all that often...I watched about 10 over the next 12 months and the DVD player died...and the 12 month warranty had passed. These guy were managed like the governemt...sloppy, inattentive, lazy, disorganized. I swore I would never go back...it does not srprise me that they are having problems.
I don't get it.
Mr. Brusca, question for you;
do you get paid by the MSM or certain corporate entities to 'spin' up distorted articles in a favorable light?
Also, what is it about Keynesian economics you love and embrace so much?
It's funny, but you still seem somewhat unable to grasp that you are in the minority of the bullish camp. Practically no one who reads and follows ZH agrees with your perceptions of information, that you like to pass off
as so-called 'fact.'
I will say this, I do have to give you props for not wavering in your steadfast belief of fantasy and fabrication though.
I don't get this is a negative write up.
not grim enough for you?
Reading your piece, I and went out and slapped my dog full on in the face. I said to him "that's the bad news...the good news is it's going to be dinner time soon". Then I made him chase balls for an hour. Then I told him; "Hey - I got some more bad news - but it's really good news; we're out of dog food - but I have to go to town - but the car's on the fritz.....so that's good news on top of bad news, covered over in bad news".
"Can you fix the car?", I asked my dog.
He said; "I'm smart enough to know that I don't know that answer". - to which I was confused and amused at the same time.
Were we not talking about hydroponics?
"We will see if its reduced momentum signals slower growth ahead than we thought or if the economy continues to make strides"
The use of the word "we" indicates that you are one of them. When I say one of them, I'm referring to the obfuscating lot of PhD’s that have never held a real job. You my friend are on the government teat and you will continue to spew their Bernay's inspired "PR" until the day you see the pitch forks and torches heading your way.
Green shootz??.....HA!!!
I live in rural PA and know several small business owners. No one has hired new in the last few years. Many have downsized but keep on the older employees out of loyalty and sympathy. I don't know a single person in my neighborhood who has found a decent job in the last few years. Businesses are not expanding, not buying new equipement and not trying to grow. They are hunkered down, watching costs, treading water to make enough income to stay in business. In short, in my neck of the woods, we are in a depression.
I now rural PA or at least some of it. PA is huge state!
and it always seems to be hard to get jobs (I know the Poconos region).
I have had a houses in that part of PA for about the last 25year. It has always seemed that every fourth house is for sale up there. Yet, they are always building new ones.
I'm not sure it's a a regional bellwether.
Absolutely. This entire state is full of employers who want something for nothing and think they're entitled to it. They're very dishonest and won't pay competitively, then have the gall to cry when kids leave the state. Doesn't matter who is president, it's always someone else's fault.
Sounds like record fucking bonuses on fag street to me!
You know what? This is just a very badly written article. Inexcusably bad. I'm having a hell of a time figuring out exactly what it is even saying. Brusca, were you up all night? Three nights in a row? Drinking? Jägermeister?
C'mon.
I'm having a hell of a time figuring out exactly what it is even saying...
I think that's the point. Purposeful obfuscation by the party of the first part makes it difficult to relate the truth to others by anyone that actually may be able to decipher what's being reported.
revision down.
trend weaker
claims improvement less after revision.
Outlook not as positive.
Does that help?
ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ!
Not to be rude, Robert, but are you American? This reads like you're from Eastern Europe.
Bobby, bobby, bobby -
Thanks for mentioning me in your last article. Just one point, I am not your new friend nor did I "stab you in the back". You make stuff up....it seems like you do it s naturally as most weak thinkers do.
Your article above concludes with " We will see if its reduced momentum signals slower growth ahead than we thought or if the economy continues to make strides."
Such a weak conclusion will probably get you skewered, and rightly so, on ZH. Advice ? Grow spine and make a directional forecast, provide insight that is no readily available on BBG, WSJ or wherever else you are copyhing and pasting from.
It's a different world than perhaps you are used to.
Sincerely,
CoA
missed you.
So good to have you and our incisive mind back.
..and you think I make things up?
"copyhing and pasting?"...only from you, for unadulterated insight!
rating of one point - this post is utter horse shit.
This is very bullish for riots and civil unrest.
I'm continuing to be long on ammo, commercial-grade pepper spray, handcuff steel, and cot manufacturers.
We will see if its reduced momentum signals slower growth ahead than we thought or if the economy continues to make strides.
That the author believes the economy is making strides (forward, presumably) explains the "I'm surprised" tone for something (upward revisions in IJC) that's been going on in perpetuity. Around this time last year, the MSM reported something like six or eight "weekly decreases" in Initial Jobless Claims, and yet the endpoint of that rally was some 25,000 higher than the beginning - all due to the "revisions."
Open yer eyes, bub.
One word: Trust.
When multiple revisions must take place to all previous results in order to arrive at a current understanding of where we are, we no longer know.
Our current understanding has to be assumed as wrong.
Trust is given away initially, but must be earned in order to be maintained.
Those we have intitially entrusted have squandered it, whether by design or incompetence, I don't care at this point. The fact is we're afloat without moorings.
Alice in Wonderland: Alice-“What road should I take?” Cheshire Cat- “That depends, where do you want to go?” Alice: “I don’t know”. Cat: “Then it doesn’t matter”.
Robert
How much of GDP is the government delta ?
And how much of GNI is government vs private payrolls ?
That will tell you where your economy is going. The number of horses vs. the number of riders.
How long will it take for mainstream to figure out that all numbers put out on the media are and have been for a long time cooked and spun? And how long will we the people listen and put up with this crap? Where is Captain America?
Captain Captain America said you gotta be like me
Or you're gonna wind up dead last
At the end of your rope
Flat broke
Down and tired
You sleepy head
Won't you go to bed
Let me run your life
Lies
Clark Kent ran for president
No one knew about the secrets locked in his head
Friends tried to take his life
Accusations flew
Flew like Kryptonite
Clark still looking good
What you gonna say
To make everything alright
Lies
May be right
May be wrong
I'm in the middle anyway
May be right
May be wrong
I'm in the middle anyway
Stuck in the middle anyway
-moe.