This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
The QE 3 is Coming Score: Graham Summers, 8 vs. 99% of Analysts, 0
I’ve been pounding the table for months saying that QE 3 wasn’t coming. The reason was simple: the Fed is now politically toxic and cannot engage in aggressive monetary policy without experiencing severe political backlash (this is an election year).
Well, here’s today’s FOMC proving me right… again. Indeed, the Fed has disappointed the “QE is coming” crowd since July 2011. We’ve had Operation Twist 2 which is just the Fed re-arranging its Treasury portfolio, we’ve had promises of extended ZIRP, and we’ve had a multitude of verbal interventions from Fed stooges like Charles Evans…
BUT. NO. QE3.
This makes 8 Fed FOMC announcements/ releases and no QE 3.
Folks, QE 3 is not coming. Not without a Crisis first. End of story. The last time the Fed hit “print” with QE 2 put food prices at all time records and kicked off revolutions and riots around the globe.
Today, gas is already at $4, food prices aren’t too far off their highs… do you REALLY think the Fed will kick off more QE in this environment… during an election year? At a time when the Fed is becoming a hot topic in the election?
If the Fed did this, Bernanke et al might as well brush up their resumes because the Fed would be dismantled. The political environment in the US absolutely will not tolerate more QE unless we get a Crisis first.
Case in point look at the IMF which is essentially a US-backed bailout fund: how many times has Europe looked to the IMF for more money? How many times has the IMF said “No”? A dozen perhaps?
On top of this, politicians and Wall Street are already looking for a scapegoat to pin the 2008 Crisis and ensuing fall-out on. The fall-out from the bailouts/ corruption/ behind the scenes deals is far from over. Many folks got a “get out of jail free” card for four years… that doesn’t mean those cards don’t have expiration dates.
The markets and economy have been maintained by a very tenuous balance of policy and talk between the Fed, Wall Street, and Politicians. But as push comes to shove, and REAL litigation starts, these relationships will crumble and sacrifices will be made. The Fed knows this as do all of the connected power elite. Why do you think Goldman’s CEO hired a high profile defense attorney, Tim Geithner is being subpoenaed, and Bernanke is running such a massive “the Fed is great” PR campaign?
Simple answer: litigation is coming in the future and everyone is playing damage control.
With that in mind, the Fed’s hands are tied until a Crisis hits. Judging by the look of things, it’s going to be coming from Europe’s banking system: a $46 trillion sewer of toxic PIIGS debt that is leveraged at more than 26 to 1 (Lehman was leveraged at 30 to 1 when it went under).
So if you’re not already taking steps to prepare for the coming collapse, you need to do so now. I recently published a report showing investors how to prepare for this. It’s called How to Play the Collapse of the European Banking System and it explains exactly how the coming Crisis will unfold as well as which investments (both direct and backdoor) you can make to profit from it.
This report is 100% FREE. You can pick up a copy today at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com
Good Investing!
Graham Summers
PS. We also feature numerous other reports ALL devoted to helping you protect yourself, your portfolio, and your loved ones from the Second Round of the Great Crisis. Whether it’s a US Debt Default, runaway inflation, or even food shortages and bank holidays, our reports cover how to get through these situations safely and profitably.
And ALL of this is available for FREE under the OUR FREE REPORTS tab at: http://www.gainspainscapital.com
- advertisements -
I admit I don't have much confidence in my analysis, but things look like this to me (assuming the Federal Reserve web page isn't lying):
Last July, the Federal Reserve had assets of T$2.854. I'm assuming that over the life of the Fed, those assets were purchased with money that was created from nothing - ie QE. Most of that has been in the last 3 years.
Now, the Federal Reserve has assets of T$2.872. Admittedly, this is higher, but not that much. Also, the assets have shifted around some, the current assets of things called "Other Assets" and "Liquidty Swaps" have grown, while Mortgage back bonds and assets from bank bailouts (Maiden Lane) have fallen.
So the conclusion I come to is that on net, the Fed has not been monetizing or money printing in the last 8 months. The total money supply has grown (M2) by 9%, but that must be due to greater leverage in the banking system, not direct printing. I would also say that I don't see any QE in the future unless money supply growth through bank leverage falls significantly - which doesn't seem to be happening.
Wait a darn minute here. All Graham said was no QE UNTIL a "CRISIS" hits. And he is right. Unfortunately, Ben considers a 2% drop in the DOW a "CRISIS" and is pumping dollars out there like a fire hose, just not talking about it.
Yea its all such baloney, they CANT allow a real 'crisis' to appear in the U.S., that would set off a global panic I think they know full well they couldnt control it. Its like saying a boat made of cardboard can withstand a hurricane.
...I am sorry Graham but you have been wrong for three years and you will be wrong for another 18 momths-3 years.
QE NEVER ENDED PEOPLE! It continues uninterrupted just unannounced by the fed. Who exactly do you think is purchasing the $1.5 trillion annual deficit? The chinese? Japan? Russia? Europe?
LOL!
-Doc
You really think the FED is purchasing all the debt? Theyre just monetizing for free at no charge to themselves while everyone thinks theyre doing it to help stock prices....simply crowd control for the idiots while theyre being set up to be killed one morning no one knows when.
Monetizing the debt is not quatitative easing, I dont care what anyone says to the contrary.
Martians, duh.
'..the Fed’s hands are tied until a Crisis hits..."
read shock doctrine by naomi klein - it is coming, you can bet your next bankster bonus on it...
The FED's hands are tied because theyre causing out of control inflation, and if they monetize the debt any more theyre looking at gas going up a buck each month. The FED's next target is pensions and 401K's, those will be confiscated in the next 'crisis' to pay the bankers since retail never showed up to buy the pump top.
Yeah, I like how all of the QE deniers always use the that escape clause, so then they can be right either way.
The idea that a crisis is NOT coming? Yeah, that's totally likely.
The Fed has never stopped doing QE. Not really sure what all the debate is about. The Fed buys about 50% of every Treasury debt auction.
Sorry thats not 'quantitative easing' at all thats called 'monetizing the debt', plain and simple.
And will likely buy the remainder in the future.
Probably already have monetized about all the debt at this point.
How much is this assbag paying zh to post his nonsense?
Sure it may be awhile before QEwhatever but somebody is going to have to continue to prop up the sinking ship unless the globalists are ready for us to sink. The real question should be if they can stretch the funny money enough to stay under the debt ceiling until after the phony election.
But none of this really matters. Invest in metals or globalist currency. Period. Time will tell. Graham wont.
I try to give Tyler's contributors benefit of the doubt, but enough is enough.
Never have I seen a better example of someone being right for the wrong reasons.
Graham Summers - SHUT THE FUCK UP.
Sure, but how do you know theyre not ready to 'sink us' right now? Whats left to do?
It looks like the more he posts - the less subscribers he gets.
wahahaha
yea right, it's all backwards.
FED is bashing future QE exactly because it will do it!
It's like China saying it will not buy gold.
So the banks will collapse, rates rise, government dept go to hell and FED will not print?!
BS!
FED will have all inflation in the world b4 it let any of TBTF to fell.
The hell of bankruptcy with investigators, media, illegal deals coming out, money laundering and shit, yea FED will let it happen.
So when is the crisis? Bring it on, cuz they're gonna need QE3 before too long to keep any semblance of status quo BAU...
Yea really, wheres the crisis? Any news no matter how bad is good, and any little market dip is immediately reversed.
Crisis? I just dont believe theyre able to allow one.
There is a cause and effect of everything.
If there is no QE on the near term horizon, yet this country will continue to to run deficits of 400 billion a quarter, just who will be buying the Treasuries issued to pay for the 400 billion a quarter in deficit spending? Moreso, with other countries slowly decreasing US holdings, even if we were to have a balanced budget, who would be buying the refunding portion?
It's the growing debt thats the problem. QE is just a side show (important in that its telling that we cannot fund deficits from normal channels.
I think its too early to be redisscussing forced IRA and Pension use of Treasuries in portfolio.But thats one alternative.
Could the Fed be forcing the hand of Congress and White House in this election year to be fiscally responsible? Nah.
If they just keep doing this same course quarter after quarter, we should be paying about $7 for gas by election time. That should make for good TV riot viewing.
Speak of the devil
IMF chief wants 'more firepower' to fight criseshttp://www.rr.com/news/topic/article/rr/55254887/66160329/IMF_chief_wants_more_firepower_to_fight_crises
graham is a dead man walking
what the hell is operation twist , who is buying 61% of governernment bonds
who is supporting europe with loans at 0% ... ..
your newsletter is worth $0 a year .. for information that sucks
Right so now everything is 'quatitative easing', even direct monetizing of the debt.
*Not without a Crisis first
They have an industrial sized unlimited "box o crises", to the left everything is a crisis.
Tossing out the individual mandate of buying your neighbor's medical insurance will certainly be a crisis.
They may not have had something called QE3 specifically, but then what was operation twist? QE2.5? All the money the Fed has been throwing under the table at the ECB? QE 2-7/8?
Graham,
Judging by the rave reviews about your service, I am glad I hesitated to provide my credit card info to try your service, and it's no wonder you refused to allow a 2 week free trial.
Who is going to fund the $1.6T deficit then Graham if not the Fed???
You really think the FED secret bankers are ponying up $1.6 trillion dollars to plug up the deficit? I dont.
Fed and Goldman will be punished for their crimes in a court of law?
LOL keep dreaming!
QE3 is not coming, monetization is over thats why theyre pounding the table demanding retail come in and buy....anyone who thinks the FED is going to print them more free money gifts for their stupid bubble stocks will be crushed, and they deserve it.
I think I figured out Graham Summers: Make predictions, if you are wrong, continue to make predictions until you are right, then brag about it extensively and sell your literature.
No one said there wouldn't be a crash first. There will be. Probably between now and summer before inflation season hits.
I dont believe it, not 1 bit...no way are they going to stage a 'crash' then letting them 'ease' more. To do what at best....get back to where we are now, maybe? Along with new $7 gasoline? This is all just bullshit from pumpers way past their effective timeline, the printing and pumping are over and besides no WAY they can let the markets go down it would set off a world chain reaction and no way could they control it at all.
'Inflation season', lol I like that line....'tis the season for inflation!' yea like I'm not already paying thru the nose for gas and food for months already.
Anybody in ZH land ever subscribe to this service ?
I have contacted Graham asking for a 2 week free trial to test his service and boasts, and was told "NO."
If I was that confident in my abilities, I would gladly show people my talents.
However, I think Graham is more talk than show.
I subscribed to the Trends Journal got the first issue and said "I dont need this". Asked for a full return of my money and they made it happen.
Good job Mr. Gerald Celente. I should re-subscribe just for that reason.
Stop pounding the table, you have been dead wrong for 2 years.
And yes, QE 3 is coming.
Bailing out the EU with Fed money is a form of QE....the ECB, Japan, China, and so on are all printing to avoid riots in their streets.
The Fed knows better then to label their printing process "QE"....don't be fooled. There's Trilions yet to come my friend. If nothing else, Barry will put the prssure The Bernank as stocks plunge very soon after the CEOs have taken their stock bonuses this quarter.
I am really looking forward to the price of gold, oil, food, etc in yen...
Graham is a douchebag personified and the meaning of what it is to be certifiable shit : he thinks and always needs to be right. Loser. And why is this jerkoff being featured on ZH for all this time exactly? His free trial is a lie as evidenced below as were his bogus $300/oz of gold "sources" and "secrets" -- this loser and his services really cheapen ZH.
Wasn't the euro-dollar (fed/ecb) swap lines a form of QE? Sure, it's "just a swap"...(wink, wink), but didn't that flood the mkt with USD? QE without the political backlash? Honest question