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The fallacy of the great Bull

thetrader's picture




 

 

As investors finally seem to be realizing the reality, let’s review the bull argument. The Trader has been arguing that the perceived bull is larger than the actual bull. By that we mean, majority of indices have not performed as well as one might read in the main stream media. In Europe the DAX has performed relatively well this year, but there are many other indices actually trading in negative territory. But not the broader indices, or?

No the Eurostoxx 50 is still up on the year, but diminishing. The point is, if you didn’t catch the first couple of weeks in January, you are down on many indices, especially the Spanish Ibex, but also the Eurostoxx 50 and the Italian MIB. Once again, the real bull is not as strong as one might believe.

 

Chart since the beginning of this year. Ibex clearly the dog (dark blue), but Eurostoxx, MIB and OMX (light blue, orange, red) are all coming off towards the flat line. The only index still up nicely is the DAX. Time for the DAX (black) to come down to reality as well?

For Gold and Silver charts click here

 

 

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Wed, 04/04/2012 - 18:10 | 2317763 jack stephan
jack stephan's picture

Will Emerson: Jesus, Seth. Listen, if you really wanna do this with your life you have to believe you're necessary and you are. People wanna live like this in their cars and big fuckin' houses they can't even pay for, then you're necessary. The only reason that they all get to continue living like kings is cause we got our fingers on the scales in their favor. I take my hand off and then the whole world gets really fuckin' fair really fuckin' quickly and nobody actually wants that. They say they do but they don't. They want what we have to give them but they also wanna, you know, play innocent and pretend they have know idea where it came from. Well, thats more hypocrisy than I'm willing to swallow, so fuck em. Fuck normal people. You know, the funny thing is, tomorrow if all of this goes tits up they're gonna crucify us for being too reckless but if we're wrong, and everything gets back on track? Well then, the same people are gonna laugh till they piss their pants cause we're gonna all look like the biggest pussies God ever let through the door. 

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 20:19 | 2318046 tempo
tempo's picture

Some Universities will not issue transcripts after graduation if you are in default. Probably want Mom and Dad to cosign and lose their retirement and house. Then the whole family can be on food stamps and Medicaid.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 17:40 | 2317689 Moe Howard
Moe Howard's picture

blah blah blah fuck these charts buy gold silver and ammo. stockpile water and food. Don't buy GM products. Do not use credit cards. Fuck charts.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 16:17 | 2317481 SeanJKerrigan
Wed, 04/04/2012 - 15:54 | 2317426 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Since January a grand rotation of the HFT Algo's out of utilities and other performers of 2011 and into financials and other dogs of 2011.

When you run the casino, it is easy to funnel people and money, even if you give out free drinks.

Remember, the robots are always the first in and the first out; everyone else is chasing their digital wake.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 14:39 | 2317226 I Am Not a Copp...
I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

Here comes the ramp

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 14:32 | 2317208 skepticCarl
skepticCarl's picture

Using almost any market index you can find, from foreign equities to precious metals to commodities, there has been a cyclical bull for the past 3 years.  This effort to choose a few indexes and say, "it was not so great" does nothing to change the fact that it was a bull.  Going long stocks, commods and metals has been correct.  Even bonds, for the most part.

Let's hear some analysis of the current conditions, and some new market calls for the future, rather than a lame attempt at spinning events of the past.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 16:05 | 2317448 dirtbagger
dirtbagger's picture

Right on skepticcarl.  Best quarter in 4 years, but the author can't bring himself to call it bullish.  Most analysts have trouble predicting the future, not reading data from the past.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 18:49 | 2317855 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Right on dirtbagger.

You can't publish here if you have something bullish to say.

Nattering negativity is all that is allowed.  Cracks me up. TEOTWAWKI loosers.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 14:14 | 2317159 Money 4 Nothing
Money 4 Nothing's picture

Has Romney began Marketing analysis? They ar all broken charts everywhere anyay, etch a sketch graphs look good about now.

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 12:19 | 2316687 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

more Lego charts ...is it an alligator drawing?

...how's anyone supposed to trade that?!!

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 14:32 | 2317206 thetrader
thetrader's picture

Lego charts for kids...

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 18:53 | 2317872 Zero Govt
Zero Govt's picture

glad to see you can see the humour in your own charts Trader  ;)

Wed, 04/04/2012 - 14:10 | 2317144 Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

Looks like an etch-a-sketch to me.

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